An artificial intelligence model to predict survival and chemotherapy benefits for gastric cancer patients after gastrectomy development and validation in international multicenter cohorts

Artificial intelligence in gastrointestinal surgery: A minireview of predictive models and clinical applications

BACKGROUND

Artificial intelligence (AI) is playing an increasingly significant role in predicting outcomes of gastrointestinal (GI) surgeries, improving preoperative risk assessment and post-surgical decision-making. AI models, particularly those based on machine learning, have demonstrated potential in predicting surgical complications and recovery trajectories.

AIM

To evaluate the role of AI in predicting outcomes for GI surgeries, focusing on its efficacy in enhancing surgical planning, predicting complications, and optimizing post-operative care.

METHODS

A systematic review of studies published up to March 2025 was conducted across databases such as PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. Studies were included if they utilized AI models for predicting surgical outcomes, including morbidity, mortality, and recovery. Data were extracted on the AI techniques, performance metrics, and clinical applicability.

RESULTS

Machine learning models demonstrated significantly better performance than logistic regression models, with an area under the curve difference of 0.07 (95%CI: 0.04–0.09; P < 0.001). Models focusing on variables such as patient demographics, nutritional status, and surgical specifics have shown improved accuracy. AI’s ability to integrate multifaceted data sources, such as imaging and genomics, contributes to its superior predictive power. AI has improved the early detection of gastric cancer, achieving 95% sensitivity in real-world settings.

CONCLUSION

AI has the potential to transform GI surgical practices by offering more accurate and personalized predictions of surgical outcomes. However, challenges related to data quality, model transparency, and clinical integration remain.

Predicting gastric cancer survival using machine learning: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer (GC) has a poor prognosis, and the accurate prediction of patient survival remains a significant challenge in oncology. Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising tool for survival prediction, though concerns regarding model interpretability, reliance on retrospective data, and variability in performance persist.

AIM

To evaluate ML applications in predicting GC survival and to highlight key limitations in current methods.

METHODS

A comprehensive search of PubMed and Web of Science in November 2024 identified 16 relevant studies published after 2019. The most frequently used ML models were deep learning (37.5%), random forests (37.5%), support vector machines (31.25%), and ensemble methods (18.75%). The dataset sizes varied from 134 to 14177 patients, with nine studies incorporating external validation.

RESULTS

The reported area under the curve values were 0.669–0.980 for overall survival, 0.920–0.960 for cancer-specific survival, and 0.710–0.856 for disease-free survival. These results highlight the potential of ML-based models to improve clinical practice by enabling personalized treatment planning and risk stratification.

CONCLUSION

Despite challenges concerning retrospective studies and a lack of interpretability, ML models show promise; prospective trials and multidimensional data integration are recommended for improving their clinical applicability.

SurvGraph: A hybrid-graph attention network for survival prediction using whole slide pathological images in gastric cancer

Whole slide pathological images have shown significant potential for patient prognostication. Graph representation learning provides a robust framework for in-depth analysis of whole-slide images to construct predictive models. In this study, we introduce SurvGraph, an innovative graph-based deep learning network designed for gastric cancer survival prediction using whole slide pathological images. SurvGraph employs a hybrid graph construction approach that integrates multiple feature types, including color, texture, and deep learning features extracted from the pathological images to build node representations. SurvGraph utilizes a multi-head attention graph network, which performs survival prediction based on the graph structure. We evaluate the SurvGraph model on a large dataset of 708 gastric cancer patients from three independent cohorts for overall survival prediction. To assess the impact of various feature sets, we examine their performance when used individually and in combination. With five-fold cross-validation, our results demonstrate that the SurvGraph model achieves an average concordance index (C-index) of 0.706 with a standard deviation (SD) of 0.019. The proposed SurvGraph model has also attained a C-index of 0.708 (SD = 0.040) in the external testing set. In addition to baseline comparisons, we conducted a comprehensive benchmarking study comparing SurvGraph against established graph neural network architectures and multiple instance learning-based deep learning frameworks. The results indicate that the SurvGraph model outperforms the compared prediction models, suggesting its potential as a valuable tool for enhancing gastric cancer prognosis estimation.

The application of artificial intelligence in upper gastrointestinal cancers

Upper gastrointestinal cancers, mainly comprising esophageal and gastric cancers, are among the most prevalent cancers worldwide. There are many new cases of upper gastrointestinal cancers annually, and the survival rate tends to be low. Therefore, timely screening, precise diagnosis, appropriate treatment strategies, and effective prognosis are crucial for patients with upper gastrointestinal cancers. In recent years, an increasing number of studies suggest that artificial intelligence (AI) technology can effectively address clinical tasks related to upper gastrointestinal cancers. These studies mainly focus on four aspects: screening, diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. In this review, we focus on the application of AI technology in clinical tasks related to upper gastrointestinal cancers. Firstly, the basic application pipelines of radiomics and deep learning in medical image analysis were introduced. Furthermore, we separately reviewed the application of AI technology in the aforementioned aspects for both esophageal and gastric cancers. Finally, the current limitations and challenges faced in the field of upper gastrointestinal cancers were summarized, and explorations were conducted on the selection of AI algorithms in various scenarios, the popularization of early screening, the clinical applications of AI, and large multimodal models.

The artificial intelligence revolution in gastric cancer management: clinical applications

Nowadays, gastric cancer has become a significant issue in the global cancer burden, and its impact cannot be ignored. The rapid development of artificial intelligence technology is attempting to address this situation, aiming to change the clinical management landscape of gastric cancer fundamentally. In this transformative change, machine learning and deep learning, as two core technologies, play a pivotal role, bringing unprecedented innovations and breakthroughs in the diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis evaluation of gastric cancer. This article comprehensively reviews the latest research status and application of artificial intelligence algorithms in gastric cancer, covering multiple dimensions such as image recognition, pathological analysis, personalized treatment, and prognosis risk assessment. These applications not only significantly improve the sensitivity of gastric cancer risk monitoring, the accuracy of diagnosis, and the precision of survival prognosis but also provide robust data support and a scientific basis for clinical decision-making. The integration of artificial intelligence, from optimizing the diagnosis process and enhancing diagnostic efficiency to promoting the practice of precision medicine, demonstrates its promising prospects for reshaping the treatment model of gastric cancer. Although most of the current AI-based models have not been widely used in clinical practice, with the continuous deepening and expansion of precision medicine, we have reason to believe that a new era of AI-driven gastric cancer care is approaching.

Development and validation of a prognostic prediction model for elderly gastric cancer patients based on oxidative stress biochemical markers

BACKGROUND

The potential of the application of artificial intelligence and biochemical markers of oxidative stress to predict the prognosis of older patients with gastric cancer (GC) remains unclear.

METHODS

This retrospective multicenter study included consecutive patients with GC aged ≥ 65 years treated between January 2012 and April 2018. The patients were allocated into three cohorts (training, internal, and external validation). The GC-Integrated Oxidative Stress Score (GIOSS) was developed using Cox regression to correlate biochemical markers with patient prognosis. Predictive models for five-year overall survival (OS) were constructed using random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), and support vector machine (SVM) methods, and validated using area under the curve (AUC) and calibration plots. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was used for model interpretation.

RESULTS

This study included a total of 1,859 older patients. The results demonstrated that a low GIOSS was a predictor of poor prognosis. RF was the most efficient method, with AUCs of 0.999, 0.869, and 0.796 in the training, internal validation, and external validation sets, respectively. The DT and SVM models showed low AUC values. Calibration and decision curve analyses demonstrated the considerable clinical usefulness of the RF model. The SHAP results identified pN, pT, perineural invasion, tumor size, and GIOSS as key predictive features. An online web calculator was constructed based on the best model.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating the GIOSS, the RF model effectively predicts postoperative OS in older patients with GC and is a robust prognostic tool. Our findings emphasize the importance of oxidative stress in cancer prognosis and provide a pathway for improved management of GC.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (trial registration number: NCT06208046, date of registration: 2024-05-01).

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the survival and estimate surgical benefits for gastric cancer with liver metastasis receiving primary tumor resection

Background

Surgical treatment has been widely controversial for gastric cancer accompanied by liver metastasis (GCLM). This paper aims to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the survival and estimate surgical benefits for GCLM patients.

Methods

A total of 616 GCLM patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database and 74 GCLM patients receiving primary tumor resection (PTR) from the Chinese center were included in this study. Patients from the SEER database were divided into training set (with PTR) (n=493) and non-operative set (without PTR) (n=123). Patients undergoing PTR from China were included as external validation set. Independent risk factors associated with the overall survival of GCLM patients undergoing PTR were identified in the training set via log-rank test and Cox regression analysis. Afterwards, a comprehensive model and corresponding nomogram were constructed and validated by validation set.

Results

The survival of patients undergoing PTR (n=493) was longer than that without PTR (n=123) (log-rank test, p<0.0001) in SEER cohort. T stage (HR=1.40, 95% CI=1.14, 1.73), differentiation grade (HR=1.47, 95% CI=1.17, 1.85), non-hepatic metastases (HR=1.69, 95% CI=1.29, 2.21), and adjuvant therapy (HR=0.34, 95% CI= 0.28, 0.42) were closely related with the survival of GCLM with PTR, and thus, a four-factor nomogram was established. However, GCLM patients receiving PTR in the high-risk subgroup (n=255) screened out by the nomogram did not have better survival outcomes compared with patients without PTR (n=123) (log-rank test, p=0.25).

Conclusions

The nomogram could predict survival of GCLM patients receiving PTR with acceptable accuracy. In addition, although PTR did improve the survival of whole GCLM patients, patients in the high-risk subgroup were unable to benefit from PTR, which could assist clinicians to make decisions for the treatment of GCLM.

Machine learning-based prediction of 5-year survival in elderly NSCLC patients using oxidative stress markers

Background

Oxidative stress plays a significant role in aging and cancer, yet there is currently a lack of research utilizing machine learning models to examine the relationship between oxidative stress and prognosis in elderly non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients.

Methods

This study included elderly NSCLC patients who underwent radical lung cancer resection from January 2012 to April 2018, exploring the relationship between Oxidative Stress Score (OSS) and prognosis. Machine learning techniques, including Decision Trees (DT), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM), were employed to develop predictive models for 5-year overall survival (OS).

Results

The datasets consisted of 1647 patients in the training set, 705 in the internal validation set, and 516 in the external validation set. An OSS was formulated from six systemic oxidative stress biomarkers, such as albumin, total bilirubin, and blood urea nitrogen, among others. Boruta variable importance analysis identified low OSS as a key indicator of poor prognosis. The OSS was subsequently integrated into the DT, RF, and SVM models for training. These models, optimized through hyperparameter tuning on the training set, were then evaluated on the internal and external validation sets. The RF model demonstrated the highest predictive performance, with an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.794 in the internal validation set, compared to AUCs of 0.711 and 0.760 for the DT and SVM models, respectively. Similarly, in the external validation set, the RF model achieved an AUC of 0.784, outperforming the DT and SVM models, which had AUCs of 0.699 and 0.730, respectively. Calibration plots confirmed the RF model's superior calibration, followed by the SVM model, with the DT model performing the poorest.

Conclusion

The OSS-based clinical prediction model, constructed using machine learning methodologies, effectively predicts the prognosis of elderly NSCLC patients post-radical surgery.

Integrated clinical and genomic models using machine-learning methods to predict the efficacy of paclitaxel-based chemotherapy in patients with advanced gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Paclitaxel is commonly used as a second-line therapy for advanced gastric cancer (AGC). The decision to proceed with second-line chemotherapy and select an appropriate regimen is critical for vulnerable patients with AGC progressing after first-line chemotherapy. However, no predictive biomarkers exist to identify patients with AGC who would benefit from paclitaxel-based chemotherapy.

METHODS

This study included 288 patients with AGC receiving second-line paclitaxel-based chemotherapy between 2017 and 2022 as part of the K-MASTER project, a nationwide government-funded precision medicine initiative. The data included clinical (age [young-onset vs. others], sex, histology [intestinal vs. diffuse type], prior trastuzumab use, duration of first-line chemotherapy), and genomic factors (pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants). Data were randomly divided into training and validation sets (0.8:0.2). Four machine learning (ML) methods, namely random forest (RF), logistic regression (LR), artificial neural network (ANN), and ANN with genetic embedding (ANN with GE), were used to develop the prediction model and validated in the validation sets.

RESULTS

The median patient age was 64 years (range 25-91), and 65.6% of those were male. A total of 288 patients were divided into the training (n = 230) and validation (n = 58) sets. No significant differences existed in baseline characteristics between the training and validation sets. In the training set, the areas under the ROC curves (AUROC) for predicting better progression-free survival (PFS) with paclitaxel-based chemotherapy were 0.499, 0.679, 0.618, and 0.732 in the RF, LR, ANN, and ANN with GE models, respectively. The ANN with the GE model that achieved the highest AUROC recorded accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and F1-score performance of 0.458, 0.912, 0.724, and 0.579, respectively. In the validation set, the ANN with GE model predicted that paclitaxel-sensitive patients had significantly longer PFS (median PFS 7.59 vs. 2.07 months, P = 0.020) and overall survival (OS) (median OS 14.70 vs. 7.50 months, P = 0.008). The LR model predicted that paclitaxel-sensitive patients showed a trend for longer PFS (median PFS 6.48 vs. 2.33 months, P = 0.078) and OS (median OS 12.20 vs. 8.61 months, P = 0.099).

CONCLUSIONS

These ML models, integrated with clinical and genomic factors, offer the possibility to help identify patients with AGC who may benefit from paclitaxel chemotherapy.

Machine learning-based radiomics score improves prognostic prediction accuracy of stage II/III gastric cancer: A multi-cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although accurately evaluating the overall survival (OS) of gastric cancer patients remains difficult, radiomics is considered an important option for studying prognosis.

AIM

To develop a robust and unbiased biomarker for predicting OS using machine learning and computed tomography (CT) image radiomics.

METHODS

This study included 181 stage II/III gastric cancer patients, 141 from Lichuan People's Hospital, and 40 from the Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA). Primary tumors in the preoperative unenhanced CT images were outlined as regions of interest (ROI), and approximately 1700 radiomics features were extracted from each ROI. The skeletal muscle index (SMI) and skeletal muscle density (SMD) were measured using CT images from the lower margin of the third lumbar vertebra. Using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression with 5-fold cross-validation, 36 radiomics features were identified as important predictors, and the OS-associated CT image radiomics score (OACRS) was calculated for each patient using these important predictors.

RESULTS

Patients with a high OACRS had a poorer prognosis than those with a low OACRS score (P < 0.05) and those in the TCIA cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that OACRS was a risk factor [RR = 3.023 (1.896-4.365), P < 0.001] independent of SMI, SMD, and pathological features. Moreover, OACRS outperformed SMI and SMD and could improve OS prediction (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

A novel biomarker based on machine learning and radiomics was developed that exhibited exceptional OS discrimination potential.

Novel research and future prospects of artificial intelligence in cancer diagnosis and treatment

Research into the potential benefits of artificial intelligence for comprehending the intricate biology of cancer has grown as a result of the widespread use of deep learning and machine learning in the healthcare sector and the availability of highly specialized cancer datasets. Here, we review new artificial intelligence approaches and how they are being used in oncology. We describe how artificial intelligence might be used in the detection, prognosis, and administration of cancer treatments and introduce the use of the latest large language models such as ChatGPT in oncology clinics. We highlight artificial intelligence applications for omics data types, and we offer perspectives on how the various data types might be combined to create decision-support tools. We also evaluate the present constraints and challenges to applying artificial intelligence in precision oncology. Finally, we discuss how current challenges may be surmounted to make artificial intelligence useful in clinical settings in the future.

Application of artificial intelligence for improving early detection and prediction of therapeutic outcomes for gastric cancer in the era of precision oncology

Gastric cancer is a leading contributor to cancer incidence and mortality globally. Recently, artificial intelligence approaches, particularly machine learning and deep learning, are rapidly reshaping the full spectrum of clinical management for gastric cancer. Machine learning is formed from computers running repeated iterative models for progressively improving performance on a particular task. Deep learning is a subtype of machine learning on the basis of multilayered neural networks inspired by the human brain. This review summarizes the application of artificial intelligence algorithms to multi-dimensional data including clinical and follow-up information, conventional images (endoscope, histopathology, and computed tomography (CT)), molecular biomarkers, etc. to improve the risk surveillance of gastric cancer with established risk factors; the accuracy of diagnosis, and survival prediction among established gastric cancer patients; and the prediction of treatment outcomes for assisting clinical decision making. Therefore, artificial intelligence makes a profound impact on almost all aspects of gastric cancer from improving diagnosis to precision medicine. Despite this, most established artificial intelligence-based models are in a research-based format and often have limited value in real-world clinical practice. With the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence in clinical use, we anticipate the arrival of artificial intelligence-powered gastric cancer care.