An axiomatic distance methodology for aggregating multimodal evaluations

Elicitation and aggregation of multimodal estimates improve wisdom of crowd effects on ordering tasks

We present a wisdom of crowds study where participants are asked to order a small set of images based on the number of dots they contain and then to guess the respective number of dots in each image. We test two input elicitation interfaces-one elicits the two modalities of estimates jointly and the other independently. We show that the latter interface yields higher quality estimates, even though the multimodal estimates tend to be more self-contradictory. The inputs are aggregated via optimization and voting-rule based methods to estimate the true ordering of a larger universal set of images. We demonstrate that the quality of collective estimates from the simpler yet more computationally-efficient voting methods is comparable to that achieved by the more complex optimization model. Lastly, we find that using multiple modalities of estimates from one group yields better collective estimates compared to mixing numerical estimates from one group with the ordinal estimates from a different group.

The Legacy of Peter Fishburn: Foundational Work and Lasting Impact

Peter Fishburn has had a tremendous impact on the field of decision analysis, developing ideas that would come to be foundational across decision analysis and that would impact the literature on decision making in economics, psychology, finance, engineering, and mathematics. This paper provides an overview of his legacy. We summarize 11 of his influential papers. We then trace his impact on recent research in topics including preference representation and elicitation, risk attitudes, time preferences, health preferences, behavioral decision making, social choice and voting, and geometric analyses.

Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2022.0461 .

Improving Crowdsourcing-Based Image Classification Through Expanded Input Elicitation and Machine Learning

This work investigates how different forms of input elicitation obtained from crowdsourcing can be utilized to improve the quality of inferred labels for image classification tasks, where an image must be labeled as either positive or negative depending on the presence/absence of a specified object. Five types of input elicitation methods are tested: binary classification (positive or negative); the (x, y)-coordinate of the position participants believe a target object is located; level of confidence in binary response (on a scale from 0 to 100%); what participants believe the majority of the other participants' binary classification is; and participant's perceived difficulty level of the task (on a discrete scale). We design two crowdsourcing studies to test the performance of a variety of input elicitation methods and utilize data from over 300 participants. Various existing voting and machine learning (ML) methods are applied to make the best use of these inputs. In an effort to assess their performance on classification tasks of varying difficulty, a systematic synthetic image generation process is developed. Each generated image combines items from the MPEG-7 Core Experiment CE-Shape-1 Test Set into a single image using multiple parameters (e.g., density, transparency, etc.) and may or may not contain a target object. The difficulty of these images is validated by the performance of an automated image classification method. Experiment results suggest that more accurate results can be achieved with smaller training datasets when both the crowdsourced binary classification labels and the average of the self-reported confidence values in these labels are used as features for the ML classifiers. Moreover, when a relatively larger properly annotated dataset is available, in some cases augmenting these ML algorithms with the results (i.e., probability of outcome) from an automated classifier can achieve even higher performance than what can be obtained by using any one of the individual classifiers. Lastly, supplementary analysis of the collected data demonstrates that other performance metrics of interest, namely reduced false-negative rates, can be prioritized through special modifications of the proposed aggregation methods.