Which COVID-19 information really impacts stock markets?

Exploring the asymmetric effect of COVID-19 pandemic news on the cryptocurrency market: evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach and frequency domain causality

This paper explores the asymmetric effect of COVID-19 pandemic news, as measured by the coronavirus indices (Panic, Hype, Fake News, Sentiment, Infodemic, and Media Coverage), on the cryptocurrency market. Using daily data from January 2020 to September 2021 and the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, the results revealed that both adverse and optimistic news had the same effect on Bitcoin returns, indicating fear of missing out behavior does not prevail. Furthermore, when the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model is estimated, both positive and negative shocks in pandemic indices promote Bitcoin's daily changes; thus, Bitcoin is resistant to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic crisis and may serve as a hedge during market turmoil. The analysis of frequency domain causality supports a unidirectional causality running from the Coronavirus Fake News Index and Sentiment Index to Bitcoin returns, whereas daily fluctuations in the Bitcoin price Granger affect the Coronavirus Panic Index and the Hype Index. These findings may have significant policy implications for investors and governments because they highlight the importance of news during turbulent times. The empirical results indicate that pandemic news could significantly influence Bitcoin's price.

Asymmetric dynamic risk transmission between financial stress and monetary policy uncertainty: thinking in the post-covid-19 world

Considering the dramatically increasing impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on monetary policy and the uncertainty in the financial system, we aim to examine the dynamic asymmetric risk transmission between financial stress and monetary policy uncertainty. Our sample covers 30 years of data. We first employ the conventional Granger causality test to examine the average relationship between financial stress and monetary policy uncertainty, and the results cannot provide evidence of causality between them. However, from an asymmetric perspective, we further detect the strongly apparent existence of the asymmetric structure of causality between them. Finally, we conduct further research on the asymmetric impacts from a time-varying perspective. The time-varying test finds that this relationship can be influenced by major events, especially the dot-com bubble, the 2009 financial crisis, and the current COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, one can learn more information about the influencing mechanism between financial stress and monetary policy with our work, which may be beneficial for making better decisions in the future.