Scenario Planning

Liberating Structures in Strategic Planning: Methods to Foster Engagement

This paper describes the innovative approach of using liberating structures to the development of the AUR 2023 strategic plan, and lessons learned in their application. The 2023 strategic plan built on the results and approach of the prior 2015 plan. Similar to the 2015 strategic plan, traditional tools such as a SWOT analysis and strategic retreat were used. In addition, the 2023 process included tools called liberating structures and was iteratively co-produced through a series of virtual meetings over 18 months. Advantages of liberating structures included increased creativity and speed in moving through meeting tasks, increased number of meaningful contributions from AUR members and increased engagement from participants during discussions and meetings. The 2023 AUR strategic plan is provided along with examples of completed goals and those under early implementation. Lessons learned from using these tools for strategic planning can be applied to other society and group meetings. Moving forward, the 2023 strategic plan will be a living document, which will be reviewed at each Board of Directors meeting and periodically adapted.

Scenario Planning Approach to Adapting in the COVID Era

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused much uncertainty and disruption in healthcare resulting in many challenges for strategic planning. Scenario planning is a tool that allows healthcare leaders to plan healthcare delivery strategies by incorporating the uncertainties into the analysis and planning process.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Variables were identified which will have major impact on the future, but whose future direction is uncertain. The extremes of these drivers were used to generate multiple scenarios. A subset of scenarios was used to evaluate potential tactics to determine which may be high yield in the face of uncertainty.

RESULTS

Unlike traditional strategic planning, scenario planning does not develop a single future with a path to that future. Scenario planning evaluates tactics to determine which would be helpful in specific scenarios, multiple different futures or under specific conditions.

CONCLUSION

We present a scenario planning model which can be used to determine specific tactics to accommodate the uncertainty due to variable healthcare delivery needs in the COVID-19 era.

Creating Value through Incremental Innovation: Managing Culture, Structure, and Process

While the looming threat of large-scale disruptive innovation consumes disproportionate attention, incremental innovation remains an important tool for preserving and growing radiology practices within a dynamic marketplace. Incremental innovation, defined as the process of making improvements or additions to an organization while maintaining the organization's core product or service model, is accessible to practices of all sizes and must not be overlooked if practices are to maintain their competitive advantage. This article explores cultural, structural, and process enablers for incremental innovation. Successful innovation cultures foster the ability to import and exploit external knowledge (adaptive capacity), encourage creative thought from all levels of the organization, display sensitivity toward the competency-destroying potential of certain changes, cultivate a positive perceptual bias toward organizational threats, and build tolerance for risk and uncertainty when prototyping new ideas. Structural elements promoting incremental innovation include dedicated resources for innovation planning, flexible and organic team structures, strong centralized governance models, robust communication systems, and organizational incentives encouraging exploration of new concepts. Processes important to innovation include periodic environmental scanning, strategic and scenario planning, use of an objectively gated system for testing and filtering new ideas, and use of an approach to implementation that emphasizes empowerment of project managers, removal of barriers, and proactive communication around change.

Plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in Sweden in 2025

INTRODUCTION

Radiography is a healthcare speciality with many technical challenges. Advances in engineering and information technology applications may continue to drive and be driven by radiographers. The world of diagnostic imaging is changing rapidly and radiographers must be proactive in order to survive. To ensure sustainable development, organisations have to identify future opportunities and threats in a timely manner and incorporate them into their strategic planning. Hence, the aim of this study was to analyse and describe plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in 2025.

METHOD

The study has a qualitative design with an inductive approach based on focus group interviews. The interviews were inspired by the Scenario-Planning method.

RESULTS

Of the seven trends identified in a previous study, the radiographers considered two as the most uncertain scenarios that would have the greatest impact on the profession should they occur. These trends, labelled "Access to career advancement" and "A sufficient number of radiographers", were inserted into the scenario cross. The resulting four plausible future scenarios were: The happy radiographer, the specialist radiographer, the dying profession and the assembly line.

CONCLUSION

It is suggested that "The dying profession" scenario could probably be turned in the opposite direction by facilitating career development opportunities for radiographers within the profession. Changing the direction would probably lead to a profession composed of "happy radiographers" who are specialists, proud of their profession and competent to carry out advanced tasks, in contrast to being solely occupied by "the assembly line".

Using the scenario method in the context of health and health care--a scoping review

Background

The scenario technique is a method for future research and for strategic planning. Today, it includes both qualitative and quantitative elements. The aims of this scoping review are to give an overview of the application of the scenario method in the fields of health care and to make suggestions for better reporting in future scenario projects.

Methods

Between January 2013 and October 2013 we conducted a systematic search in the databases Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, Eric, The Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cinahl since inception for the term ‘scenario(s)’ in combination with other terms, e.g. method, model, and technique. Our search was not restricted by date or language. In addition, we screened the reference lists of the included articles.

Results

A total of 576 bibliographical records were screened. After removing duplicates and three rounds of screening, 41 articles covering 38 different scenario projects were included for the final analysis. Nine of the included articles addressed disease related issues, led by mental health and dementia (n = 4), and followed by cancer (n = 3). Five scenario projects focused on public health issues at an organizational level and five focused on the labor market for different health care professionals. In addition, four projects dealt with health care ‘in general’, four with the field of biotechnology and personalized medicine, and additional four with other technology developments. Some of the scenario projects suffered from poor reporting of methodological aspects.

Conclusions

Despite its potential, use of the scenario method seems to be published rarely in comparison to other methods such as the Delphi-technique, at least in the field of health care. This might be due to the complexity of the methodological approach. Individual project methods and activities vary widely and are poorly reported. Improved criteria are required for reporting of scenario project methods. With improved standards and greater transparency, the scenario method will be a good tool for scientific health care planning and strategic decision-making in public health.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12874-015-0083-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The nature of change

There is little doubt that health care is facing change. The conventional view of change, based on evolution, is that it is slow, gradual, and generally an evenly paced system change. Unfortunately, it is much more uneven, being burstlike, unpredictable, and, in fact, steplike. This pattern is called punctuated equilibrium, which is well illustrated by the metaphorical picture of the Devil's Staircase. These features call for a reassessment of how to cope with change. In addition to detecting change, responding to it and preparing for it require some understanding of the role of experimentation because the evolution algorithm is simple: experimentation, selection, and replication. Experimentation in radiology forms a continuum ranging from modifying traits to developing variants of diagnostic, interventional, and even new integrated services. We often describe experiments by relating their motives (ie, adaptation and innovation), but complex systems see only experiments available for selection. Experiments generating new services and business models are the important ones because they create the "subspecies" of radiology, which offers a robust set of options capable of withstanding new health care selection forces. Experimentation and selection are the prerequisites of replication (i.e., survival). It behooves radiology to combine and concatenate diversified, reactive, and innovative experiments to explore adjacent domains to expand its set of options. Just as in Darwinian evolution, major changes on the health care landscape will be at the specialty, ie, species and subspecies levels, rather than at the individual specialty trait level. Radiology needs a strong set of "subspecies" to succeed in selection to enhance evolution and allow replication.

Balancing the three missions and the impact on academic radiology

The three missions of academic radiology compete with one another for time and funding. Revenue for the clinical mission often subsidizes education and research. Given the internal and external drivers/pressures on health care and, more particularly, on academic health centers, the current model is unsustainable. Trends seen in other industries are entering academic health care. The radiology department of the future will need to be more efficient with increasingly fewer resources while meeting its missions at higher levels of expectation.