Interrupted time-series analysis showed unintended consequences of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric hospital admissions

Increase in invasive group A streptococcal disease among Australian children coinciding with northern hemisphere surges

Background

Increases in invasive group A streptococcal disease (iGAS) have recently been reported in multiple countries in the northern hemisphere, occurring during, and outside of, typical spring peaks. We report the epidemiology of iGAS among children in Australia from 1 July 2018 to 31 December 2022.

Methods

The Paediatric Active Enhanced Disease Surveillance (PAEDS) Network prospectively collected iGAS patient notifications for children and young people aged less than 18 years admitted to five major Australian paediatric hospitals in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Patients were eligible for inclusion if they had GAS isolated from a normally sterile body site, or met clinical criteria for streptococcal toxic shock syndrome or necrotising fasciitis with GAS isolated from a non-sterile site. We report patients' clinical and demographic characteristics, and estimate minimum incidence rates.

Findings

We identified 280 paediatric iGAS patients, median age 4.5 years (interquartile range 1.4-6.4). We observed a pre-pandemic peak annualised incidence of 3.7 per 100,000 (95% CI 3.1-4.4) in the 3rd quarter of 2018, followed by a decline to less than 1.0 per 100,000 per quarter from 2020 to mid-2021. The annualised incidence increased sharply from mid-2022, peaking at 5.2 per 100,000 (95% CI 4.4-6.0) in the 3rd quarter and persisting into the 4th quarter (4.9 per 100,000, 95% CI 4.2-5.7). There were 3 attributable deaths and 84 (32%) patients had severe disease (overall case fatality rate 1%, 95% CI 0.2-3.3). Respiratory virus co-infection, positive in 57 of 119 patients tested, was associated with severe disease (RR 1.9, 95% CI 1.2-3.0). The most common emm-type was emm-1 (60 of 163 isolates that underwent emm-typing, 37%), followed by emm-12 (18%).

Interpretation

Australia experienced an increase in the incidence of iGAS among children and young people in 2022 compared to pandemic years 2020-2021. This is similar to northern hemisphere observations, despite differences in seasons and circulating respiratory viruses. Outbreaks of iGAS continue to occur widely. This emphasises the unmet need for a vaccine to prevent significant morbidity associated with iGAS disease.

Funding

Murdoch Children's Research Institute funded open access publishing of this manuscript.

FeBRILe3: Safety Evaluation of Febrile Infant Guidelines Through Prospective Bayesian Monitoring

OBJECTIVES

Despite evidence supporting earlier discharge of well-appearing febrile infants at low risk of serious bacterial infection (SBI), admissions for ≥48 hours remain common. Prospective safety monitoring may support broader guideline implementation.

METHODS

A sequential Bayesian safety monitoring framework was used to evaluate a new hospital guideline recommending early discharge of low-risk infants. Hospital readmissions within 7 days of discharge were regularly assessed against safety thresholds, derived from historic rates and expert opinion, and specified a priori (8 per 100 infants). Infants aged under 3 months admitted to 2 Western Australian metropolitan hospitals for management of fever without source were enrolled (August 2019-December 2021), to a prespecified maximum 500 enrolments.

RESULTS

Readmission rates remained below the prespecified threshold at all scheduled analyses. Median corrected age was 34 days, and 14% met low-risk criteria (n = 71). SBI was diagnosed in 159 infants (32%), including urinary tract infection (n = 140) and bacteraemia (n = 18). Discharge occurred before 48 hours for 192 infants (38%), including 52% deemed low-risk. At study completion, 1 of 37 low-risk infants discharged before 48 hours had been readmitted (3%), for issues unrelated to SBI diagnosis. In total, 20 readmissions were identified (4 per 100 infants; 95% credible interval 3, 6), with >0.99 posterior probability of being below the prespecified noninferiority threshold, indicating acceptable safety.

CONCLUSIONS

A Bayesian monitoring approach supported safe early discharge for many infants, without increased risk of readmission. This framework may be used to embed safety evaluations within future guideline implementation programs to further reduce low-value care.

A surge in human metapneumovirus paediatric respiratory admissions in Western Australia following the reduction of SARS-CoV-2 non-pharmaceutical interventions

AIM

Western Australian laboratory data demonstrated a decrease in human metapneumovirus (hMPV) detections through 2020 associated with SARS-CoV-2-related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), followed by a subsequent surge in metropolitan region in mid-2021. We aimed to assess the impact of the surge in hMPV on paediatric hospital admissions and the contribution of changes in testing.

METHODS

All respiratory-coded admissions of children aged <16 years at a tertiary paediatric centre between 2017 and 2021 were matched with respiratory virus testing data. Patients were grouped by age at presentation and by ICD-10 AM codes into bronchiolitis, other acute lower respiratory infection (OALRI), wheeze and upper respiratory tract infection (URTI). For analysis, 2017-2019 was utilised as a baseline period.

RESULTS

hMPV-positive admissions in 2021 were more than 2.8 times baseline. The largest increase in incidence was observed in the 1-4 years group (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 3.8; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.5-5.9) and in OALRI clinical phenotype (IRR 2.8; 95% CI: 1.8-4.2). The proportion of respiratory-coded admissions tested for hMPV in 2021 doubled (32-66.2%, P < 0.001), with the greatest increase in wheeze (12-75% in 2021, P < 0.001). hMPV test percentage positivity in 2021 was higher than in the baseline period (7.6% vs. 10.1% in 2021, P = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

The absence and subsequent surge underline the susceptibility of hMPV to NPIs. Increased hMPV-positive admissions in 2021 can be partially attributable to testing, but test-positivity remained high, consistent with a genuine increase. Continued comprehensive testing will help ascertain true burden of hMPV respiratory diseases.

RSV through the COVID-19 pandemic: Burden, shifting epidemiology, and implications for the future

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) represents a major global healthcare burden, particularly in those under 5 years of age. There is no available vaccine, with treatment limited to supportive care or palivizumab for high-risk children. Additionally, although a causal relationship has not been established, RSV has been associated with the development of asthma or wheezing in some children. The COVID-19 pandemic and the introduction of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have caused substantial changes to RSV seasonality and epidemiology. Many countries have experienced an absence of RSV during the time of a typical season, followed by an out-of-season surge upon relaxation of NPI use. These dynamics have disrupted traditional RSV disease patterns and assumptions, but also provide a unique opportunity to learn more about the transmission of RSV and other respiratory viruses, as well as inform future approaches to RSV preventive strategies. Here, we review the RSV burden and epidemiology through the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss how new data may affect future decisions regarding RSV prevention.

Unusual local epidemic of paediatric respiratory syncytial virus during a time of global pandemic

BACKGROUND

Western Australia (WA) public health measures to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 resulted in a secondary reduction in paediatric respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) admissions. Following an absent expected 2020 winter peak, RSV-positive admissions surged during the summer of 2020.

AIM

This report examines the number of RSV-positive admissions and severities across 36 months to better understand this out-of-season epidemic.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study was performed assessing the number and severity of RSV-related respiratory hospitalisations at a peripheral paediatric centre from March 2018 to February 2021. Data were extracted from the hospital clinical database.

RESULTS

The total number of included participants was n = 294. The total number of RSV hospitalisations in SY (study year) 2018 (March 2018 to February 2019), SY 2019 (March 2019 to February 2020) and SY 2020 (March 2020 to February 2021) was 67, 98 and 129, respectively. Prior to SARS-CoV-2, RSV hospitalisations were highest during the winter months. In SY 2020, there were 0 RSV hospitalisations during winter, while 101 admissions in the following summer season. The proportion of admissions requiring respiratory support was significantly reduced in SY 2020 (34.1%) compared to SY 2018 (46.9%, P = 0.050) and SY 2019 (55.2%, P = 0.004). The median length of stay (LOS) in 2020 was 2.0 which was significantly reduced from 2018 and 2019 which was 3.0, P = 0.001; and 3.0, P < 0.001, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Following a period of RSV absence, there was an unprecedented surge in admission, however, with lower severity and shorter LOS.