Heat risk assessment for the Brussels capital region under different urban planning and greenhouse gas emission scenarios

The use of environmental scenarios to project future health effects: a scoping review

Environmental risks are a substantial factor in the current burden of disease, and their role is likely to increase in the future. Model-based scenario analysis is used extensively in environmental sciences to explore the potential effects of human activities on the environment. In this Review, we examine the literature on scenarios modelling environmental effects on health to identify the most relevant findings, common methods used, and important research gaps. Health outcomes and measures related to climate change (n=106) and air pollution (n=30) were most frequently studied. Studies examining future disease burden due to changes or policies related to dietary risks were much less common (n=10). Only a few studies assessed more than two environmental risks (n=3), even though risks can accumulate and interact with each other. Studies predominantly covered high-income countries and Asia. Sociodemographic, vulnerability, and health-system changes were rarely accounted for; thus, assessing the full effect of future environmental changes in an integrative way is not yet possible. We recommend that future models incorporate a broader set of determinants of health to more adequately capture their effect, as well as the effect of mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Indicators for climate change-driven urban health impact assessment

Climate change can cause multiply potential health issues in urban areas, which is the most susceptible environment in terms of the presently increasing climate volatility. Urban greening strategies make an important part of the adaptation strategies which can ameliorate the negative impacts of climate change. It was aimed to study the potential impacts of different kinds of greenings against the adverse effects of climate change, including waterborne, vector-borne diseases, heat-related mortality, and surface ozone concentration in a medium-sized Hungarian city. As greening strategies, large and pocket parks were considered, based on our novel location identifier algorithm for climate risk minimization. A method based on publicly available data sources including satellite pictures, climate scenarios and urban macrostructure has been developed to evaluate the health-related indicator patterns in cities. The modelled future- and current patterns of the indicators have been compared. The results can help the understanding of the possible future state of the studied indicators and the development of adequate greening strategies. Another outcome of the study is that it is not the type of health indicator but its climate sensitivity that determines the extent to which it responds to temperature rises and how effective greening strategies are in addressing the expected problem posed by the factor.

Mapping Local Climate Zones and Their Applications in European Urban Environments: A Systematic Literature Review and Future Development Trends

In the light of climate change and burgeoning urbanization, heat loads in urban areas have emerged as serious issues, affecting the well-being of the population and the environment. In response to a pressing need for more standardised and communicable research into urban climate, the concept of local climate zones (LCZs) has been created. This concept aims to define the morphological types of (urban) surface with respect to the formation of local climatic conditions, largely thermal. This systematic review paper analyses studies that have applied the concept of LCZs to European urban areas. The methodology utilized pre-determined keywords and five steps of literature selection. A total of 91 studies were found eligible for analysis. The results show that the concept of LCZs has been increasingly employed and become well established in European urban climate research. Dozens of measurements, satellite observations, and modelling outcomes have demonstrated the characteristic thermal responses of LCZs in European cities. However, a substantial number of the studies have concentrated on the methodological development of the classification process, generating a degree of inconsistency in the delineation of LCZs. Recent trends indicate an increasing prevalence of the accessible remote-sensing based approach over accurate GIS-based methods in the delineation of LCZs. In this context, applications of the concept in fine-scale modelling appear limited. Nevertheless, the concept of the LCZ has proven appropriate and valuable to the provision of metadata for urban stations, (surface) urban heat island analysis, and the assessment of outdoor thermal comfort and heat risk. Any further development of LCZ mapping appears to require a standardised objective approach that may be globally applicable.

Heat related mortality in the two largest Belgian urban areas: A time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Summer temperatures are expected to increase and heat waves will occur more frequently, be longer, and be more intense as a result of global warming. A growing body of evidence indicates that increasing temperature and heatwaves are associated with excess mortality and therefore global heating may become a major public health threat. However, the heat-mortality relationship has been shown to be location-specific and differences could largely be explained by the most frequent temperature. So far, in Belgium there is little known regarding the heat-mortality relationship in the different urban areas.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to assess the heat-mortality relationship in the two largest urban areas in Belgium, i.e. Antwerp and Brussels for the warm seasons from 2002 until 2011 taking into account the effect of air pollution.

METHODS

The threshold in temperature above which mortality increases was determined using segmented regressions for both urban areas. The relationship between daily temperature and mortality above the threshold was investigated using a generalized estimated equation with Poisson distribution to finally determine the percentage of deaths attributable to the effect of heat.

RESULTS

Although only 50 km apart, the heat-mortality curves for the two urban areas are different. More specifically, an increase in mortality occurs above a maximum temperature of 25.2 °C in Antwerp and 22.8 °C in Brussels. We estimated that above these thresholds, there is an increase in mortality of 4.9% per 1 °C in Antwerp and of 3.1% in Brussels. During the study period, 1.5% of the deaths in Antwerp and 3.5% of the deaths in Brussels can be attributed to the effect of heat. The thresholds differed considerably from the most frequent temperature, particularly in Antwerp. Adjustment for air pollution attenuated the effect of temperature on mortality and this attenuation was more pronounced when adjusting for ambient ozone.

CONCLUSION

Our results show a significant effect of temperature on mortality above a city-specific threshold, both in Antwerp and in Brussels. These findings are important given the ongoing global warming. Recurrent, intense and longer episodes of high temperature and expected changes in air pollutant levels will have an important impact on health in urban areas.

Combining expert and crowd-sourced training data to map urban form and functions for the continental US

Although continental urban areas are relatively small, they are major drivers of environmental change at local, regional and global scales. Moreover, they are especially vulnerable to these changes owing to the concentration of population and their exposure to a range of hydro-meteorological hazards, emphasizing the need for spatially detailed information on urbanized landscapes. These data need to be consistent in content and scale and provide a holistic description of urban layouts to address different user needs. Here, we map the continental United States into Local Climate Zone (LCZ) types at a 100 m spatial resolution using expert and crowd-sourced information. There are 10 urban LCZ types, each associated with a set of relevant variables such that the map represents a valuable database of urban properties. These data are benchmarked against continental-wide existing and novel geographic databases on urban form. We anticipate the dataset provided here will be useful for researchers and practitioners to assess how the configuration, size, and shape of cities impact the important human and environmental outcomes.

Revealing Kunming’s (China) Historical Urban Planning Policies Through Local Climate Zones

Over the last decade, Kunming has been subject to a strong urbanisation driven by rapid economic growth and socio-economic, topographical and proximity factors. As this urbanisation is expected to continue in the future, it is important to understand its environmental impacts and the role that spatial planning strategies and urbanisation regulations can play herein. This is addressed by (1) quantifying the cities’ expansion and intra-urban restructuring using Local Climate Zones (LCZs) for three periods in time (2005, 2011 and 2017) based on the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tool (WUDAPT) protocol, and (2) cross-referencing observed land-use and land-cover changes with existing planning regulations. The results of the surveys on urban development show that, between 2005 and 2011, the city showed spatial expansion, whereas between 2011 and 2017, densification mainly occurred within the existing urban extent. Between 2005 and 2017, the fraction of open LCZs increased, with the largest increase taking place between 2011 and 2017. The largest decrease was seen for low the plants (LCZ D) and agricultural greenhouse (LCZ H) categories. As the potential of LCZs as, for example, a heat stress assessment tool has been shown elsewhere, understanding the relation between policy strategies and LCZ changes is important to take rational urban planning strategies toward sustainable city development.