Comparison of multi-criteria and artificial intelligence models for land-subsidence susceptibility zonation

Research on mining land subsidence by intelligent hybrid model based on gradient boosting with categorical features support algorithm

Land subsidence induced by coal mining (MLS) has posed a huge threat to the ecological environment, buildings, roads, and other infrastructure safety in mining areas. However, the prediction and evaluation of MLS is relatively complex, and the reliability of the prediction results is closely related to factors such as the professional knowledge and engineering experience of researchers. This paper aims to combine intelligent optimization algorithms: ant lion optimizer (ALO), bald eagle search (BES), bird swarm algorithm (BSA), harris hawks optimization (HHO), and sparrow search algorithm (SSA), with machine learning model of gradient boosting with categorical features support algorithm (CatBoost) to predict MLS. To achieve this goal, five hybrid models based CatBoost were developed and the prediction accuracy and reliability of the models were compared and analyzed. The prediction performance of the hybrid models has been significantly improved on the basis of a single model, of which the SSA-CatBoost model has the most obvious improvement (from R2 = 0.927 to 0.965, RMSE = 0.541 to 0.377, MAE = 0.386 to 0.297, VAF = 92.720 to 95.837). The importance and predictive contribution of all input features to predictive labels were studied with the Shapley method. The research results indicate that hybrid model technology is a reliable MLS prediction method. This study can help mining technicians use machine learning methods to study the degree of MLS damage to the surface environment and provide scientific advanced prediction and evaluation for the protection and management of the ecological environment in mining areas and the formulation of safety production measures.

An interpretable deep learning model to map land subsidence hazard

The main goal of this research is the interpretability of deep learning (DL) model output (e.g., CNN and LSTM) used to map land susceptibility to subsidence hazard by means of different techniques. For this purpose, an inventory map of land subsidence (LS) is prepared based on fieldwork and a record of LS presence points, and 16 features controlling LS were mapped. Thereafter, 11 effective features controlling LS were identified by means of a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, which was then used as input in the CNN and LSTM predictive models. To address the inherent black box nature of DL models, six interpretation methods (feature interaction, permutation importance plot (PFIM), bar plot, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) main plot, heatmap plot, and waterfall plot) were used to interpret the predictive model outputs. Both models (CNN and LSTM) had AUC > 90 and therefore provided excellent accuracy for mapping LS hazard. According to the most accurate model-the CNN predictive model-the range from very low to very high hazard classes occupied 20%, 20%, 25%, 16.3%, and 18.7% of the study area, respectively. According to three plots (bar plot, SHAP main plot, and heatmap plot), which were constructed based on the SHAP value, distance from the well, GDR and DEM were identified as the three most important features with the highest impact on the DL model output. The results of the waterfall plot indicate two effective features consisting of distance from the well and coarse fragment, and two effective features comprising landuse and DEM, contributed negatively and positively to LS, respectively. Overall, these explanation techniques can address critical concerns with respect to the interpretability of sophisticated DL predictive models.

Land subsidence susceptibility mapping: a new approach to improve decision stump classification (DSC) performance and combine it with four machine learning algorithms

Land subsidence is a worldwide threat. In arid and semiarid lands, groundwater depletion is the main factor that induce the subsidence resulting in environmental damages and socio-economic issues. To foresee and prevent the impact of land subsidence, it is necessary to develop accurate maps of the magnitude and evolution of the subsidences. Land subsidence susceptibility maps (LSSMs) provide one of the effective tools to manage vulnerable areas and to reduce or prevent land subsidence. In this study, we used a new approach to improve decision stump classification (DSC) performance and combine it with machine learning algorithms (MLAs) of naïve Bayes tree (NBTree), J48 decision tree, alternating decision tree (ADTree), logistic model tree (LMT), and support vector machine (SVM) in land subsidence susceptibility mapping (LSSSM). We employ data from 94 subsidence locations, among which 70% were used to train learning hybrid models and the other 30% were used for validation. In addition, the models' performance was assessed by ROC-AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, odd ratio, root-mean-square error (RMSE), kappa, frequency ratio, and F-score techniques. A comparison of the results obtained from the different models reveals that the new DSC-ADTree hybrid algorithm has the highest accuracy (AUC = 0.983) in preparing LSSSMs as compared to other learning models such as DSC-J48 (AUC = 0.976), DSC-NBTree (AUC = 0.959), DSC-LMT (AUC = 0.948), DSC-SVM (AUC = 0.939), and DSC (AUC = 0.911). The LSSSMs generated through the novel scientific approach presented in our study provide reliable tools for managing and reducing the risk of land subsidence.

Scrutinization of land subsidence rate using a supportive predictive model: Incorporating radar interferometry and ensemble soft-computing

Land subsidence is a huge challenge that land and water resource managers are still facing. Radar datasets revolutionize the way and give us the ability to provide information about it, thanks to their low cost. But identifying the most important drivers need for the modeling process. Machine learning methods are especially top of mind amid the prediction studies of natural hazards and hit new heights over the last couple of years. Hence, putting an efficient approach like integrated radar-and-ensemble-based method into practice for land subsidence rate simulation is not available yet which is the main aim of this research. In this study, the number of 52 pairs of radar images were used to identify subsidence from 2014 to 2019. Then, using the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm the key variables affecting land subsidence were identified among the topographical parameters, aquifer information, land use, hydroclimatic variables, and geological and soil factors. Afterward, three individual machine learning models (including Support Vector Machine, SVM; Gaussian Process, GP; Bayesian Additive Regression Tree, BART) along with three ensemble learning approaches were considered for land subsidence rate modeling. The results indicated that the subsidence varies between 0 and 59 cm in this period. Comparing the Radar results with the permanent geodynamic station exhibited a very strong correlation between the ground station and the radar images (R2 = 0.99, RMSE = 0.008). Parsing the input data by the SA indicated that key drivers are precipitation, elevation, percentage of fine-grained materials in the saturated zone, groundwater withdrawal, distance to road, groundwater decline, and aquifer thickness. The performance comparison indicated that ensemble models perform better than individual models, and among ensemble models, the nonlinear ensemble approach (i.e., BART model combination) provided better performance (RMSE = 0.061, RSR = 0.42, R2 = 0.83, PBIAS = 2.2). Also, the distribution shape of the probability density function in the non-linear ensemble model is much closer to the observations. Results indicated that the presence of significant fine-grained materials in unconsolidated aquifer systems can clarify the response of the aquifer system to groundwater decline, low recharge, and subsequent land subsidence. Therefore, the interaction between these factors can be very dangerous and intensify subsidence.

Stacking- and voting-based ensemble deep learning models (SEDL and VEDL) and active learning (AL) for mapping land subsidence

This contribution presents a novel methodology based on the feature selection, ensemble deep learning (EDL) models, and active learning (AL) approach for prediction of land subsidence (LS) hazard and rate, and its uncertainty in an area involving two important plains - the Minab and Shamil-Nian plains - in the Hormozgan province, southern Iran. The important features controlling LS hazard were identified by ridge regression. Then, two EDL models were constructed by stacking (SEDL) and voting (VEDL) five dense deep learning (DL) models (model 1 to model 5) for mapping LS hazard. Thereafter, the predictive model performance was assessed by a precision-recall curve and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) plot. A partial dependence plot (PDP), individual conditional expectation plots (ICEP), game theory, and a sensitivity analysis were used for the interpretability of the predictive DL model. According to SEDL - a model with higher accuracy - 34% (1624 km²), 14.7% (698 km²), and 19.2% (912 km²) of the total area were classified as being of very low, low, and moderate hazards, whereas 17.7% (845 km²) and 14.4% (683 km²) of area were classified as being of high and very high hazards, respectively. Based on all interpretability techniques, aquifer loss or groundwater drawdown is the most important feature controlling LS hazard, and it having the greatest impact on the SEDL model output. Based on a Taylor diagram and R² as model performance assessment indicators, SEDL-AL (with R² > 95% for training and test datasets) performed better than SEDL for quantify LS rate, the rate of LS ranging between 0 and 48.1 cm. The highest rate of LS occurred in the Minab plain - an area located downstream of the Minab Esteghlal dam. SEDL-AL was used to quantify the uncertainty associated with the LS rate. The observed values fell within predictions provided by SEDL-AL, which indicates a high accuracy of our predictive model. Overall, our newly developed modeling techniques are helpful tools for the spatial mapping of LS susceptibility and rate, and its uncertainty.

Designing grazing susceptibility to land degradation index (GSLDI) in hilly areas

Evaluation of grazing impacts on land degradation processes is a difficult task due to the heterogeneity and complex interacting factors involved. In this paper, we designed a new methodology based on a predictive index of grazing susceptibility to land degradation index (GSLDI) built on artificial intelligence to assess land degradation susceptibility in areas affected by small ruminants (SRs) of sheep and goats grazing. The data for model training, validation, and testing consisted of sampling points (erosion and no-erosion) taken from aerial imagery. Seventeen environmental factors (e.g., derivatives of the digital elevation model, small ruminants' stock), and 55 subsequent attributes (e.g., classes/features) were assigned to each sampling point. The impact of SRs stock density on the land degradation process has been evaluated and estimated with two extreme SRs' density scenarios: absence (no stock), and double density (overstocking). We applied the GSLDI methodology to the Curvature Subcarpathians, a region that experiences the highest erosion rates in Romania, and found that SRs grazing is not the major contributor to land degradation, accounting for only 4.6%. This methodology could be replicated in other steep slope grazing areas as a tool to assess and predict susceptible to land degradation, and to establish common strategies for sustainable land-use practices.

Groundwater Potentiality Assessment of Ain Sefra Region in Upper Wadi Namous Basin, Algeria Using Integrated Geospatial Approaches

Water demand has been increasing considerably around the world, mostly since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. It has caused many problems for water supply, especially in arid areas. Consequently, there is a need to assimilate lessons learned to ensure water security. In arid climates, evaluating the groundwater potential is critical, particularly because the only source of drinking water and irrigation for the community is groundwater. The objective of this report is to locate and identify probable groundwater basins in the upper Wadi Namous basin’s Ain Sefra area. GIS and RS were used to evaluate the parameters of morphometry and to demarcate groundwater potential zones by using eight different influencing factors, viz., geology, rainfall, height, slope, land cover, land use, and lineaments density are all factors to consider. The analytical hierarchical process (AHP) was used to give weightages to the factors, and definitions within each attribute were sorted in order of priority for groundwater potentiality. The major findings of the research were the creation of groundwater-potential zones in the watershed. The hydrogeological zone of the basin was assessed as follows: very poor (0.56%), poor (26.41%), moderate (44.72%), good (25.22%), and very good (3.1%). The groundwater recharge potential zones are concentrated in low cretaceous locations, according to analytical data. The groundwater potential regions were checked to field inventory data from 45 water locations to corroborate the findings. The qualitative findings and the groundwater inventory data agreed 77.78%, according to the cross-validation study. The produced groundwater potential map might substantially assist in the development of long-term management plans by enabling water planners and decision-makers to identify zones appropriate for the placement of productive wells and reducing investment losses caused by well drilling failures. The results of the study will also serve as a benchmark for further research and studies, such as hydrogeological modeling.

Mapping Risk to Land Subsidence: Developing a Two-Level Modeling Strategy by Combining Multi-Criteria Decision-Making and Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Groundwater over-abstraction may cause land subsidence (LS), and the LS mapping suffers the subjectivity associated with expert judgment. The paper seeks to reduce the subjectivity associated with the hazard, vulnerability, and risk mapping by formulating an inclusive multiple modeling (IMM), which combines two common approaches of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) at Level 1 and artificial intelligence (AI) at Level 2. Fuzzy catastrophe scheme (FCS) is used as MCDM, and support vector machine (SVM) is employed as AI. The developed methodology is applied in Iran’s Tasuj plain, which has experienced groundwater depletion. The result highlights hotspots within the study area in terms of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. According to the receiver operating characteristic and the area under curve (AUC), significant signals are identified at both levels; however, IMM increases the modeling performance from Level 1 to Level 2, as a result of its multiple modeling capabilities. In addition, the AUC values indicate that LS in the study area is caused by intrinsic vulnerability rather than man-made hazards. Still, the hazard plays the triggering role in the risk realization.

Developing a Fuzzy TOPSIS Model Combining MACBETH and Fuzzy Shannon Entropy to Select a Gamification App

Due to the important advantages it offers, gamification is one of the fastest-growing industries in the world, and interest from the market and from users continues to grow. This has led to the development of more and more applications aimed at different fields, and in particular the education sector. Choosing the most suitable application is increasingly difficult, and so to solve this problem, our study designed a model which is an innovative combination of fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) with the Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH) and Shannon entropy theory, to choose the most suitable gamification application for the Industrial Manufacturing and Organisation Systems course in the degree programmes for Electrical Engineering and Industrial and Automatic Electronics at the Higher Technical School of Industrial Engineering of Ciudad Real, part of the University of Castilla-La Mancha. There is no precedent in the literature that combines MACBETH and fuzzy Shannon entropy to simultaneously consider the subjective and objective weights of criteria to achieve a more accurate model. The objective weights computed from fuzzy Shannon entropy were compared with those calculated from De Luca and Termini entropy and exponential entropy. The validity of the proposed method is tested through the Preference Ranking Organisation METHod for Enrichment of Evaluations (PROMETHEE) II, ELimination and Choice Expressing REality (ELECTRE) III, and fuzzy VIKOR method (VIsekriterijumska optimizacija i KOmpromisno Resenje). The results show that Quizizz is the best option for this course, and it was used in two academic years. There are no precedents in the literature using fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis techniques to select the most suitable gamification application for a degree-level university course.