A high-resolution nutrient emission inventory for hotspot identification in the Yangtze River Basin

Increasing cascade dams in the upstream area reduce nutrient inputs to the Three Gorges Reservoir in China

The upstream cascade dams play an essential role in the nutrient cycle in the Yangtze. However, there is little quantitative information on the effects of upstream damming on nutrient retention in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China. Here, we aim to assess the impact of increasing cascade dams in the upstream area of the Yangtze on Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen and Phosphorus (DIN and DIP) inputs to the TGR and their retention in the TGR and to draw lessons for other large reservoirs. We implemented the Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs (MARINA-Nutrients China-2.0 model). We ran the model with the baseline scenario in which river damming was at the level of 2009 (low) and alternative scenarios with increased damming. Our scenarios differed in nutrient management. Our results indicated that total water storage capacity increased by 98 % in the Yangtze upstream from 2009 to 2022, with 17 new large river dams (>0.5 km3) constructed upstream of the Yangtze. As a result of these new dams, the total DIN inputs to the TGR decreased by 15 % (from 768 Gg year-1 to 651 Gg year-1) and DIP inputs decreased by 25 % (from 70 Gg year-1 to 53 Gg year-1). Meanwhile, the molar DIN:DIP ratio in inputs to the TGR increased by 13 % between 2009 and 2022. In the future, DIN and DIP inputs to the TGR are projected to decrease further, while the molar DIN:DIP ratio will increase. The Upper Stem contributed 39 %-50 % of DIN inputs and 63 %-84 % of DIP inputs to the TGR in the past and future. Our results deepen our knowledge of nutrient loadings in mainstream dams caused by increasing cascade dams. More research is needed to understand better the impact of increased nutrient ratios due to dam construction.

Enhancing phosphorus source apportionment in watersheds through species-specific analysis

Phosphorus (P) is a pivotal element responsible for triggering watershed eutrophication, and accurate source apportionment is a prerequisite for achieving the targeted prevention and control of P pollution. Current research predominantly emphasizes the allocation of total phosphorus (TP) loads from watershed pollution sources, with limited integration of source apportionment considering P species and their specific implications for eutrophication. This article conducts a retrospective analysis of the current state of research on watershed P source apportionment models, providing a comprehensive evaluation of three source apportionment methods, inventory analysis, diffusion models, and receptor models. Furthermore, a quantitative analysis of the impact of P species on watersheds is carried out, followed by the relationship between P species and the P source apportionment being critically clarified within watersheds. The study reveals that the impact of P on watershed eutrophication is highly dependent on P species, rather than absolute concentration of TP. Current research overlooking P species composition of pollution sources may render the acquired results of source apportionment incapable of assessing the impact of P sources on eutrophication accurately. In order to enhance the accuracy of watershed P pollution source apportionment, the following prospectives are recommended: (1) quantifying the P species composition of typical pollution sources; (2) revealing the mechanisms governing the migration and transformation of P species in watersheds; (3) expanding the application of traditional models and introducing novel methods to achieve quantitative source apportionment specifically for P species. Conducting source apportionment of specific species within a watershed contributes to a deeper understanding of P migration and transformation, enhancing the precise of management of P pollution sources and facilitating the targeted recovery of P resources.

High resolution spatiotemporal modeling of long term anthropogenic nutrient discharge in China

High-resolution integration of large-scale and long-term anthropogenic nutrient discharge data is crucial for understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of pollution and identifying intervention points for pollution mitigation. Here, we establish the MEANS-ST1.0 dataset, which has a high spatiotemporal resolution and encompasses anthropogenic nutrient discharge data collected in China from 1980 to 2020. The dataset includes five components, namely, urban residential, rural residential, industrial, crop farming, and livestock farming, with a spatial resolution of 1 km and a temporal resolution of monthly. The data are available in three formats, namely, GeoTIFF, NetCDF and Excel, catering to GIS users, researchers and policymakers in various application scenarios, such as visualization and modelling. Additionally, rigorous quality control was performed on the dataset, and its reliability was confirmed through cross-scale validation and literature comparisons at the national and regional levels. These data offer valuable insights for further modelling the interactions between humans and the environment and the construction of a digital Earth.

Transport dynamics of watershed discharged diffuse phosphorus pollution load to the lake in middle of Yangtze River Basin

Diffuse pollution, including that in the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River, is the primary source of pollution in several agricultural watersheds globally. As the largest river basin in China, the Yangtze River Basin has suffered from total phosphorus (TP) pollution in the past decade owing to diffuse pollution and aquatic ecology destruction, especially in the midstream tributaries and mid-lower reaches of the lakes. However, the transport dynamics of diffuse pollutants, such as phosphorus (P) from land to water bodies have not been well evaluated, which is of great significance for quantifying nutrient loss and its impact on water bodies. In this study, diffuse pollution estimation with remote sensing (DPeRS) model coupled with Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) was utilized to simulate the transport dynamics of P, investigate the spatial heterogeneity and P sources in the Poyang Lake Basin. Additionally, the P transport mechanism from land to water and the migration process in water bodies were considered to investigate the impact of each loss unit on the water body and evaluate the load generated by diverse pollution types. The estimated diffuse TP loss was 6016 t P·yr-1, and the load to inflow rivers and to Poyang Lake were 11,619 and 9812 t P·yr-1, respectively. Gan River Basin (51.09%) contributed most TP to Poyang Lake among five inflow rivers, while waterfront area demonstrated the highest TP load per unit area with 0.057 t km-2·yr-1. Our study also identified P sources in the sub-basins and emphasized agricultural diffuse sources, especially planting, as the most significant factor contributing to TP pollution. Additionally, to improve the aquatic environment and water ecological conditions, further nutrient management should be applied using a comprehensive approach that encompasses the entire process, from source transportation to the water body.

Decoding China's anthropogenic typical pollutant discharge patterns: Long-term dynamics and hotspot transitions driven by population, diet, and sanitation

Human activities have led to an alarming increase in pollution, resulting in widespread water contamination. A comprehensive understanding of the quantitative relationship between anthropogenic pollutant discharges and the escalating anthropogenic disturbances and environmental efforts is crucial for effective water quality management. Here we establish a Model for Estimating Anthropogenic pollutaNts diScharges (MEANS) and simulate the long-term dynamics of various types of anthropogenic discharges in China based on an unprecedented spatio-temporal dynamic parameter dataset. Our findings reveal that from 1980 to 2020, anthropogenic discharges exhibited an overall trend of initially increasing and subsequently decreasing, with the peak occurring around 2005. During this period, the dominant pollution sources in China shifted from urban to rural areas, thereby driving the transition of hotspot pollutants from nitrogen to phosphorus in the eastern regions. The most significant drivers of anthropogenic pollutant discharges gradually shifted from population size and dietary structure to wastewater treatment and agricultural factors. Furthermore, we observed that a significant portion of China's regions still exceed the safety thresholds for pollutant discharges, with excessive levels of total phosphorus (TP) being particularly severe. These findings highlight the need for flexible management strategies in the future to address specific pollution levels and hotspots in different regions. Our study underscores the importance of considering the complex interplay between anthropogenic disturbances, environmental efforts, and long-term anthropogenic pollutant discharges for effective water pollution control.

Unraveling spatial patterns and source attribution of nutrient transport: Towards optimal best management practices in complex river basin

A comprehensive understanding of nutrient transport patterns and clarification of pollutant sources' load contributions are critical prerequisites for developing scientific pollution control strategies in complex river basins. Here, we focused on the Minjiang River Basin (MRB) and employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to systematically investigate the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads from both point and non-point sources. Results revealed that the key source areas of N and P pollution in the MRB were predominantly located along the riverbanks, influenced by a combination of sediment, precipitation, agricultural activities such as fertilization. Our analysis indicated that soil nutrient loss, fertilization, and livestock farming were the major contributors to N and P inputs, accounting for over 70 % of the total input, followed by rural residential and urban point sources. Based on the identification of non-point source pollution as the primary load source, a multi-objective optimization was conducted using response surface methodology (RSM) coupled with the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II), resulting in the identification of optimal best management practices (BMPs) that achieve a reduction of 40.04 % in N load, 39.22 % in P load, and a net economic benefit of -1.13 billion yuan per year. Compared to the RSM and automated optimization results, the proposed management measures exhibited significant improvements in N and P load reduction and net benefits. Overall, the findings provide important insights for formulating agricultural management policies in the MRB and offering valuable implications for pollution management in other complex river basins.

A novel framework to improve the consistency of water quality attribution from natural and anthropogenic factors

One critical question for water security and sustainable development is how water quality responses to the changes in natural factors and human activities, especially in light of the expected exacerbation in water scarcity. Although machine learning models have shown noticeable advances in water quality attribution analysis, they have limited interpretability in explaining the feature importance with theoretical guarantees of consistency. To fill this gap, this study built a modelling framework that employed the inverse distance weighting method and the extreme gradient boosting model to simulate the water quality at grid scale, and adapted the Shapley additive explanation to interpret the contributions of the drivers to water quality over the Yangtze River basin. Different from previous studies, we calculated the contribution of features to water quality at each grid within river basin and aggregated the contribution from all the grids as the feature importance. Our analysis revealed dramatic changes in response magnitudes of water quality to drivers within river basin. Air temperature had high importance in the variability of key water quality indicators (i.e. ammonia-nitrogen, total phosphorus, and chemical oxygen demand), and dominated the changes of water quality in Yangtze River basin, especially in the upstream region. In the mid- and downstream regions, water quality was mainly affected by human activities. This study provided a modelling framework applicable to robustly identify the feature importance by explaining the contribution of features to water quality at each grid.