Can the new energy vehicles (NEVs) and power battery industry help China to meet the carbon neutrality goal before 2060?

Subsidy implementation patterns and electric vehicle adoption

Many local governments provide subsidies to promote electric vehicles (EVs). These subsidies are characterised by different implementation patterns: they are provided by different levels of government, sometimes jointly financed, or retroactively implemented. However, the potential impacts of different subsidy implementation patterns on EV adoption remain unclear. In this study, we analyse the impact of local subsidy implementation patterns on EV adoption. We first propose an analytical model and then verify it empirically using monthly panel data on EV adoption in 132 Chinese cities. We find that municipal subsidies are more effective than both provincial and jointly financed subsidies in promoting EV adoption. Each 10% increase in municipal subsidies (as a share of national subsidies) can promote approximately 1000 more EVs than corresponding provincial subsidies and approximately 965 more EVs than jointly financed subsidies. Retroactive subsidies do not significantly hinder local EV adoption. Our research provides valuable empirical evidence for policymakers to steer toward more synergistic EV adoption policies.

A comparative analysis of car fleet efficiency evolution in Europe and Australia insights on policy influence

Regulators worldwide introduce measures to improve energy consumption and reduce greenhouse emissions of road vehicles. The present study focuses on the impacts of passenger car carbon dioxide (CO2) and fuel efficiency measures, attempting to evaluate their effectiveness using vehicle and fleet modelling. To obtain a robust counterfactual result, two regions are compared as a case study: the European Union (EU), where CO2 emissions have been regulated for over fifteen years, and Australia, a region that recently introduced such a policy element. The average difference in the certified CO2 emissions of new cars registered in the two regions increased from 50 g/km in 2018 to 60 g/km in 2021 due to accelerated electrification in the EU. To demonstrate the importance of mandatory targets, a sensitivity analysis of the 2020 EU registrations showed that lower by one-third sales of zero and low-emission vehicles (Z-L-EVs) would have resulted in seven out of ten manufacturer pools failing to meet the 2020 target of 95 g/km. The simulation framework was validated against certified values of 2021 registrations and was subsequently used to calculate real-world fleet performance to quantify the actual emissions savings. The real-world CO2 emissions in the registered fleets for 2021 were estimated to be 143 g/km and 204 g/km, for the EU and Australia, respectively. With these results as a reference, the share of ZEVs required to meet the targets set in both regions is calculated: 51% of the new registrations in 2030 in the EU for achieving 49.5 g/km, and 60% in Australia for recently set target of 58 g/km for 2029. The respective calculated average fleet-wide real-world tailpipe CO2 emissions were estimated to be 66 g/km (EU) and 77 g/km (Australia). As a last step, the study discusses the application of similar tools and analysis in the design of future policies.

Electric Vehicle Charging Route Planning for Shortest Travel Time Based on Improved Ant Colony Optimization

Electric vehicles (EVs) are gaining significant attention as an environmentally friendly transportation solution. However, limitations in battery technology continue to restrict EV range and charging speed, resulting in range anxiety, which hampers widespread adoption. While there has been increasing research on EV route optimization, personalized path planning that caters to individual user needs remains underexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose the electric vehicle charging route planning based on user requirements (EVCRP-UR) problem, which aims to integrate user preferences and multiple constraints. Our approach utilizes topology optimization to reduce computational complexity and improve path planning efficiency. Furthermore, we introduce an improved ant colony optimization (IACO) algorithm incorporating novel heuristic functions and refined probability distribution models to select optimal paths and charging stations. To further enhance charging strategies, we develop a discrete electricity dynamic programming (DE-DP) algorithm to determine charging times at efficiently chosen stations. By combining these methods, the proposed IACO algorithm leverages the strengths of each approach, overcoming their individual limitations and delivering superior performance in EV routing and charging optimization.

Urgent needs for second life using and recycling design of wasted electric vehicles (EVs) lithium-ion battery: a scientometric analysis

Currently, lithium-ion batteries are increasingly widely used and generate waste due to the rapid development of the EV industry. Meanwhile, how to reuse "second life" and recycle "extracting of valuable metals" of these wasted EVBs has been a hot research topic. The 4810 relevant articles from SCI and SSCI Scopus databases were obtained. Scientometric analysis about second life using and recycling methodologies of wasted EVBs was conducted by VOSviewer, Pajek, and Netdraw. According to analytical results, the research of second life using and recycling mythologies has been growing and the expected achievement will continue to increase. China, Germany, the USA, Italy, and the UK are the most active countries in this field. Tsinghua University in China, "Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe" in Germany, and "Polytechnic di Torino" in Italy are the most productive single and collaborative institutions. The journals SAE technical papers and World Electric Vehicle Journal have the highest publication and citations than other journals. Chinese author "Li Y" has the highest number of 36 publications, and his papers were cited 589 times by other authors. By analyzing the co-occurrence and keywords, energy analysis, second life (stationary using, small industry), and treatment methods, (hydrometallurgy and pyrometallurgical, electrochemical, bio-metallurgical) were the hot research topics. The S-curve from the article indicates hydrometallurgical and bio-metallurgical methods are attached with great potential in the near future. Further, different treatment methodologies are observed especially advanced techniques in hydrometallurgical, and spent medium bioleaching techniques in bio-metallurgical are good, economically cheap, has low CO2 emission, environmentally friendly, and has high recovery rate. Finally, this research provides information on second life use and top recycling methodology opportunities for future research direction for researchers and decision-makers who are interested in this research.

Are electric vehicles really the optimal option for the transportation sector in China to approach pollution reduction and carbon neutrality goals?

Profound worldwide fleet electrification is thought to be the primary route for achieving the target of carbon neutrality. However, when and how electrification can help mitigate environmental impacts and carbon emissions in the transport sector remains unclear. Herein, the overall life-cycle environmental impacts and carbon saving range of two typical A-class vehicles in China, including electric vehicle (EV) and internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), were quantified by the life cycle assessment model for endpoint damage with localization parameters. The results showed that the EV outperformed the ICEV for the total environment impact after a travel distance of 39,153 km and for carbon emissions after 32,292 km. The ICEV was more carbon-friendly only when the driving distance was less than 3229 km/a. Considering a full lifespan travel distance of 150,000 km, the whole life-cycle average environmental impacts of EV and ICEV were calculated as 8.6 and 17.5 mPt/km, respectively, but the EV had 2.3 times higher impacts than the ICEV in the production phase. In addition, the EV unit carbon emission was 140 g/km, 46.8% lower than that of the ICEV. Finally, three potential reduction scenarios were considered: cleaner power mix, energy efficiency improvement and composite scenario. These scenarios contributed 19.1%, 13.0% and 32.1% reductions, respectively. However, achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals in China remains a great challenge unless fossil fuels are replaced by renewable energy. The research can provide scientific reference for the method and practice of emission reduction link identification, eco-driving choice and emission reduction path formulation.

Low-carbon transformation of power structure under the "double carbon" goal: power planning and policy implications

The proposal of "double carbon" goal increases the pressure of power structure transformation. This paper sets up two scenarios according to the timing progress of realizing the "double carbon" goal and explores the transformation planning schemes of China's power structure. The conclusions are as follows: (1) Technological progress and policy support will greatly reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of onshore wind power, offshore wind power, photovoltaic power, and photothermal power. The rapid rise in carbon price will lead to the LCOE of coal power in 2060 rising to 2 CNY/kWh. (2) The power consumption of the whole society in the baseline scenario can reach 17,000 TWh in 2060. In the acceleration scenario, this value may triple that in 2020 to 21,550 TWh. (3) The acceleration scenario will pay more newly added power costs and coal power stranded scale than the baseline scenario but can achieve carbon peak and negative emissions earlier. (4) More attention should be paid to the flexible level of power system, improve the allocation proportion and requirements of new energy storage on the power supply side, help the steady exit of coal power, and ensure the safety of low-carbon transformation of power structure.