Radioxenon detections in the CTBT international monitoring system likely related to the announced nuclear test in North Korea on February 12, 2013

Impacts of future nuclear power generation on the international monitoring system

Many countries are considering nuclear power as a means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the IAEA (IAEA, 2022) has forecasted nuclear power growth rates up to 224% of the 2021 level by 2050. Nuclear power plants release trace quantities of radioxenon, an inert gas that is also monitored because it is released during nuclear explosive tests. To better understand how nuclear energy growth (and resulting Xe emissions) could affect a global nonproliferation architecture, we modeled daily releases of radioxenon isotopes used for nuclear explosion detection in the International Monitoring System (IMS) that is part of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty: 131mXe, 133Xe, 133mXe, and 135Xe to examine the change in the number of potential radioxenon detections as compared to the 2021 detection levels. If a 40-station IMS network is used, the potential detections of 133Xe in 2050 would range from 82% for the low-power scenario to 195% for the high-power scenario, compared to the detections in 2021. If an 80-station IMS network is used, the potential detections of 133Xe in 2050 would range from 83% of the 2021 detection rate for the low-power scenario to 209% for the high-power scenario. Essentially no detections of 131mXe and 133mXe are expected. The high growth scenario could lead to a 2.5-fold increase in 135Xe detections, but the total number of detections is still small (on the order of 1 detection per day in the entire network). The higher releases do not pose a health issue, but better automated methods to discriminate between radioactive xenon released from industrial sources and nuclear explosions will be needed to offset the higher workload for people who perform the monitoring.

Comparison of source-location algorithms for atmospheric samplers

Numerous algorithms have been developed to determine the source characteristics for an atmospheric radionuclide release, e.g., (Bieringer et al., 2017). This study compares three models that have been applied to the data collected by the International Monitoring System operated by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization Preparatory Commission to estimate source event parameters. Each model uses a different approach to estimate the parameters. A deterministic model uses a possible source region (PSR) approach (Ringbom et al., 2014) that is based on the correlation between predicted and measured sample values. A model (now called BAYEST) developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory uses a Bayesian formulation (Eslinger et al., 2019, 2020; Eslinger and Schrom, 2016). The FREAR model uses a different Bayesian formulation (De Meutter and Hoffman, 2020; De Meutter et al., 2021a, 2021b). The performance of the three source-location models is evaluated with 100 synthetic release cases for the single xenon isotope, 133Xe. The release cases resulted in detections in a fictitious network with 120 noble gas samplers. All three source-location models use the same sampling data. The two Bayesian models yield more accurate location estimates than the deterministic PSR model, with FREAR having slightly better location performance than BAYEST. Samplers with collection periods of 3, 6, 8, 12, and 24-h were used. Results from BAYEST show that location accuracy improves with each reduction in sample collection length. The BAYEST model is slightly better for estimating the start time of the release. The PSR model has about the same spread in start times as the FREAR model, but the PSR results have a better average start time. The Bayesian source-location algorithms give more accurate results than the PSR approach, and provide release magnitude estimates, while the base PSR model does not estimate the release magnitude. This investigation demonstrates that a reasonably dense sampling grid will sometimes yield poor location and time estimates regardless of the model. The poor estimates generally coincide with cases where there is a much larger distance between the release point and the first detecting sampler than the average sampler spacing.

Examining the potential for detecting simultaneous noble gas and aerosol samples in the international monitoring system radionuclide network

The purpose of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is to establish a legally binding ban on nuclear weapon test explosions or any other nuclear explosions. The Preparatory Commission for the CTBT Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) is developing the International Monitoring System (IMS) that includes a global network of 80 stations to monitor for airborne radionuclides upon entry into force of the CTBT. All 80 radionuclide stations will monitor for particulate radionuclides and at least half of the stations will monitor for radioxenon. The airborne radionuclide monitoring is an important verification technology both for the detection of a radionuclide release and in the determination of whether the release event originates from a nuclear explosion as opposed to an industrial use of nuclear materials. Nuclear power plants and many medical isotope production facilities release radioxenon into the atmosphere. Low levels of a few particulate isotopes, such as iodine, may also be released. Detections of multiple isotopes are useful for screening the radionuclide samples for relevance to the Treaty. This paper examines the anticipated joint detections in the IMS of noble gas and particulate isotopes from underground nuclear explosions where breaches in the underground containment vents from low levels to up to 1% of the radionuclide inventory of the resulting fission products to the atmosphere. Detection probabilities are based on 844 simulated release events spaced out at 17 release locations and one year in time. Six different release (venting) scenarios, including two fractionated scenarios, were analyzed. When ranked by detection probability, 11 particulate isotopes and one noble gas isotope (133Xe) appear in the top 20 isotopes for all six release scenarios. Using the 11 particulate isotopes and the one noble gas isotope, the IMS has nearly the same detection probability as when 45 particulate and 4 noble gas isotopes are used. Thus, a limited list of relevant radionuclides may be sufficient for treaty verification purposes. The probability that at least one particulate and at least one radioxenon isotope would be detected in the IMS from the release events ranged from 0.15 to 0.86 depending on the release scenario.

Nuclear explosion monitoring network design considerations

Design of an efficient monitoring network requires information on the type and size of releases to be detected, the accuracy and reliability of the measuring equipment, and the desired network performance. This work provides a scientific basis for optimizing or minimizing networks of 133Xe samplers to achieve a desired performance level for different levels of release. The approach of this work varies the density of sampling locations to find optimal location subsets, and to explore the properties of variations of those subsets - how crucial is a specific subset; are substitutions problematic? The choice of possible station locations is arbitrary but constrained to some extent by the location of islands, land masses, difficult topography (mountains, etc.) and the places where infrastructure exists to run and support a sampler. Performance is evaluated using hypothetical releases and atmospheric transport models that cover an entire year. Three network performance metrics are calculated: the probability of detecting the releases, the expected number of stations to detect the releases, and the expected number of samples that detect the releases. The quantitative measures support picking optimal or near-optimal network of a specific station density. If a detection probability of 90% (high) was desired for a design basis release of 1014 Bq (1% of 133Xe production from a 1 kt explosion), then a very high density would be required using today's sampling and measurement technology. If the design basis release were raised to 1015 Bq, then the station density could be lowered by a factor of 3. To achieve a location goal of three station detections on average, posited here for the first time, would also require very high station density for a release of 1014 Bq.

Investigation on atmospheric radioactivity sample association using consistency with isotopic ratio decay over time at IMS radionuclide stations

For the enhancement of the International Data Centre's products, specifically the Standard Screened Radionuclide Event Bulletin, an important step is to establish methods to associate the detections of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty-relevant nuclides in different atmospheric radioactivity samples with the same radionuclide release to characterize its source for the purpose of nuclear explosion monitoring. Episodes of anomalously high activity concentrations in samples at the International Monitoring System radionuclide stations are used as the primary assumption for being related to the same release. For multiple isotope observations, the consistency of their isotopic ratios in subsequent samples with radioactive decay is another plausible hint for one unique release. The radioxenon observations that are associated with the nuclear test announced by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in 2013 serve as case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of this basic approach and how the additionally associated samples improve the source location. We use two distinct puff releases, both of short duration, for the atmospheric transport modelling simulations to gain further evidence and confidence in our sample association study by identifying the air masses that link the releases to multiple samples. This basic approach will support the definition of analysis procedures and criteria for automatic sample association to be implemented in the Standard Screened Radionuclide Event Bulletin, which is of relevance for an expert technical analysis.

SAUNA III - The next generation noble gas system for verification of nuclear explosions

The SAUNA III represent the next generation of the SAUNA systems designed for detection of low levels of radioactive xenon in the atmosphere, with the main purpose of detecting underground nuclear explosions. The system automatically collects, processes and measures 40 m³ atmospheric samples every 6 h, increasing both the sensitivity and time resolution as compared the systems currently in use. The higher sensitive increases the number of detections, especially for samples were more than one isotope of xenon are detected. This improves the understanding of the background and the possibility to screen out signal from civilian sources. The increased time resolution of the new system also provides a more detailed picture of the plumes, especially important for near-by sources. The design of the system as well as data from the first two years of operation are presented.

SAUNA QB - Array: The realization of a new concept in radioxenon detection

We introduce a new concept in radioxenon detection - the radioxenon Array, defined as a system where air sampling and activity measurement is performed at multiple locations, using measurement units that are less sensitive, but on the other hand less costly, and easier to install and operate, compared to current state-of-the-art radioxenon systems. The inter-unit distance in the Array is typically hundreds of kilometres. Using synthetic nuclear explosions together with a parametrized measurement system model, we argue that, when such measurement units are combined into an Array, the aggregated verification performance (detection, location, and characterization) can be high. The concept has been realized by developing a measurement unit named SAUNA Q_B, and the world's first radioxenon Array is now operating in Sweden. The operational principles and performance of the SAUNA Q_B and the Array is described, and examples of first measured data are presented, indicating a measurement performance according to expectations.

Thermodynamic determination of condensation behavior for the precursory elements of radioxenon following an underground nuclear explosion

The measurement of radioactive xenon isotopes (radioxenon) in the atmosphere is a tool used to detect underground nuclear explosions, provided that some radioxenon escaped containment and that fractionation leading to the alteration of the relative proportions of these isotopes, is accounted for. After the explosion, volatilization followed by melting of the surrounding rocks produces a magma where the more refractory radioactive species get dissolved while the more volatile ones contribute to the gas phase that might escape. Indium, tin, antimony, tellurium and iodine are the main fission products involved in the decay chains leading to radioxenon. In this study, condensation as a function of temperature for these precursors of radioxenon were determined using thermodynamic calculations for systems with complex chemical composition corresponding to major environments of known underground nuclear explosions and for a range of pressure values representative of the cavity evolution. Our results illustrate a large difference between the relevant condensation temperatures for the radioxenon precursors and the tabulated boiling temperatures of the pure compounds often used as indicators of their volatility. For some precursory elements such as tin, the often-considered Heaviside function represents an oversimplification of the concept of condensation temperature, as condensation occurs over a temperature range as large as 2000 K. This results from the speciation of the elements in the gas phase mainly driven by the formation of oxides. Condensation also strongly depends on pressure while it moderately depends on the bulk chemical composition of the system. This study shows the importance and complexity of the condensation process following underground nuclear explosions. It also shows how thermodynamic computations allow the prediction of the quantity and the relative proportions of radioactive xenon isotopes in the gas phase in the presence of magma, before their potential emission to the atmosphere. Better detection, discrimination and understanding of underground nuclear explosions should arise by taking into account the fractionation resulting from the condensation of the radionuclides producing radioxenon in nuclear cavities.

Impact of industrial nuclear emissions on nuclear explosion monitoring

In 1995, the development of a global radioactive xenon monitoring network was discussed in the Conference on Disarmament as part of a nuclear explosion verification regime. Discussions considered different network densities and different possible source magnitudes. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty was subsequently written to initially include 40 locations for noble gas (radioxenon) samplers, and to consider using a total of 80 locations for noble gas samplers in its International Monitoring System (IMS) after the treaty enters into force. Since 2000, a global network of noble gas monitoring locations has been built as part of the IMS. This network, currently with 31 locations, is of sufficient sensitivity to discover that the Earth's atmosphere contains a complex anthropogenic radioactive xenon background. In this work, the impact of calculated xenon backgrounds on IMS radionuclide stations is determined by atmospheric transport modeling over a period of two years using global average values. The network coverage for potential nuclear explosions is based on a proposed method for finding anomalies among frequent background signals. Even with the addition of background radioxenon sources and using a conservative anomaly-based approach, this work shows that various network configurations have higher xenon coverage than the estimates developed when the IMS network was designed in 1995. While these global xenon coverage figures are better than expected when the network was designed in 1995, the regional impact of background radioxenon sources is large, especially for smaller source magnitudes from potential nuclear explosions, and in some cases the xenon background vastly reduces the coverage value of individual sampling locations. The results show the detection capability and presents an optimal installation order of noble gas sampling locations, e.g. from 40 to 80, after the treaty enters into force.

Efficiency calibration and self-attenuation correction in radioxenon measurement using β-γ coincidence method

Measurement of the four radioxenon isotopes, namely 131mXe, 133mXe, 133Xe, and 135Xe, play a key role in underground nuclear test monitoring for ensuring compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). To improve detection sensitivity, a β-γ coincidence technique is commonly used. Due to the presence of the gas matrix, such as stable xenon, nitrogen, helium, the self-attenuation effects should be taken into account when measuring different types of sample. In order to improve the accuracy of the measurement, the detection efficiencies of X-rays and γ-rays were derived by using a simulation gas calibration source with low density of sponge matrix. The detection efficiencies of β-particles and conversion electrons (CEs) were calibrated by measuring radioxenon sample. The self-attenuation correction factors of X-rays and γ-rays were determined by Geant4 simulation method. The self-attenuation correction factors of β-particles and CEs were provided by measuring the radioxenon samples with different volumes of xenon, nitrogen and helium.

Trends, events and potential sources of Xe-detections in the German radioxenon network

The measurement of radioxenons (133Xe, 131mXe, 133mXe, 135Xe) in the atmosphere is a keystone for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). At the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection (Bundesamt für Strahlenschutz, BfS) activity concentrations of radioactive noble gases at several sites in Germany have been measured for more than 5 decades, initially to monitor nuclear facilities and since the mid-1990s also to support the development of measurement and monitoring systems and procedures for verification of the CTBT. Average 133Xe activity concentration in air measured daily at station RN33 of the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the CTBTO on Mt Schauinsland has decreased since 2008. Due to the decreasing radioxenon background in the atmosphere, laboratory measurements with less sensitive proportional counters developed in-house are increasingly replaced by an isotope specific β-γ laboratory system for radioxenon analyses. Six years of radioxenon activity concentrations measured with the β-γ laboratory system in weekly samples from monitoring sites in Germany are presented. Activity concentrations of 133Xe in southern Germany are now typically below 1 mBq m-3 and have decreased by an order of magnitude in the past 25 years. Magnitude and variability of 133Xe activity concentrations are generally larger in northern and western Germany compared to the south, most likely due to the prevailing wind directions in the region. Selected, but typical, periods of elevated radioxenon levels at the stations are investigated and the value of stack emission data is demonstrated.

Source Term Analysis of Xenon (STAX): An effort focused on differentiating man-made isotope production from nuclear explosions via stack monitoring

An overview of the hardware and software developed for the Source Term Analysis of Xenon (STAX) project is presented which includes the data collection from two stack monitoring systems installed at medical isotope production facilities, infrastructure to transfer data to a central repository, and methods for sharing data from the repository with users. STAX is an experiment to collect radioxenon emission data from industrial nuclear facilities with the goal of developing a better understanding of the global radioxenon background and the effect industrial radioxenon releases have on nuclear explosion monitoring. A final goal of this work is to utilize collected data along with atmospheric transport modeling to calculate the contribution of a peak or set of peaks detected by the International Monitoring System (IMS) to provide desired discriminating information to the International Data Centre (IDC) and National Data Centers (NDCs). Types of data received from the STAX equipment are shown and collected data was used for a case study to predict radioxenon concentrations at two IMS stations closest to the Institute for RadioElements (IRE) in Belgium. The initial evaluation of results indicate that the data is very valuable to the nuclear explosion monitoring community.

Third international challenge to model the medium- to long-range transport of radioxenon to four Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations

In 2015 and 2016, atmospheric transport modeling challenges were conducted in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification, however, with a more limited scope with respect to emission inventories, simulation period and number of relevant samples (i.e., those above the Minimum Detectable Concentration (MDC)) involved. Therefore, a more comprehensive atmospheric transport modeling challenge was organized in 2019. Stack release data of Xe-133 were provided by the Institut National des Radioéléments/IRE (Belgium) and the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories/CNL (Canada) and accounted for in the simulations over a three (mandatory) or six (optional) months period. Best estimate emissions of additional facilities (radiopharmaceutical production and nuclear research facilities, commercial reactors or relevant research reactors) of the Northern Hemisphere were included as well. Model results were compared with observed atmospheric activity concentrations at four International Monitoring System (IMS) stations located in Europe and North America with overall considerable influence of IRE and/or CNL emissions for evaluation of the participants' runs. Participants were prompted to work with controlled and harmonized model set-ups to make runs more comparable, but also to increase diversity. It was found that using the stack emissions of IRE and CNL with daily resolution does not lead to better results than disaggregating annual emissions of these two facilities taken from the literature if an overall score for all stations covering all valid observed samples is considered. A moderate benefit of roughly 10% is visible in statistical scores for samples influenced by IRE and/or CNL to at least 50% and there can be considerable benefit for individual samples. Effects of transport errors, not properly characterized remaining emitters and long IMS sampling times (12-24 h) undoubtedly are in contrast to and reduce the benefit of high-quality IRE and CNL stack data. Complementary best estimates for remaining emitters push the scores up by 18% compared to just considering IRE and CNL emissions alone. Despite the efforts undertaken the full multi-model ensemble built is highly redundant. An ensemble based on a few arbitrary runs is sufficient to model the Xe-133 background at the stations investigated. The effective ensemble size is below five. An optimized ensemble at each station has on average slightly higher skill compared to the full ensemble. However, the improvement (maximum of 20% and minimum of 3% in RMSE) in skill is likely being too small for being exploited for an independent period.

Projected network performance for next-generation xenon monitoring systems

Next-generation radioxenon monitoring systems are reaching maturity and are expected to improve certain aspects of performance in verifying the absence of nuclear tests. To predict the improvement in detecting and locating nuclear test releases, thousands of releases all over the globe were simulated and the global detection probability was calculated for the single xenon isotope ¹³³Xe. This was done for the International Monitoring System network of noble gas samplers as it currently exists (25 certified stations), and how it would be for potential future network sizes of 39 and 79 stations. The probability of detection was calculated for releases ranging from 10¹⁰ Bq to 10¹⁶ Bq of ¹³³Xe using 10 d of atmospheric transport and presented as coverage maps and global integrals for both current and next-generation monitoring systems. Similarly, the number of detecting stations and the number of detecting samples were tabulated to elucidate the possibilities for enhanced location capability. Improvements in global detection coverage are maximized at different release sizes in a way that depends on the station density. For example, for releases of 3 × 10¹⁴ Bq and 39 stations, the detection probability would rise from 60% to 70% with next-generation systems, while for releases of 10¹³ Bq and 79 stations, it would rise from 37% to 52%. Achieving an average of two detecting stations would require a 10¹⁵ Bq release for a 39-station network and a 10¹⁴ Bq release for a 79-station network. The largest impact of using next-generation systems may be the confidence, detection redundancy, and location capability that arise from obtaining multiple samples associated with a single release event.

Projected network performance for multiple isotopes using next-generation xenon monitoring systems

Since about 2000 (Bowyer et al., 1998), radioxenon monitoring systems have been under development and testing for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Operation of the systems since then has resulted in development of a next-generation of systems that are nearly ready for operational deployment. By 2010, the need to screen out civilian sources was well known (Auer et al., 2010; Saey, 2009), and isotopic ratio approaches were soon considered (Kalinowski and Pistner, 2006) to identify specific sources. New generation systems are expected to improve the ability to verify the absence of nuclear tests by using isotopic ratios when multiple isotopes are detected. In this work, thousands of releases were simulated to compute the global detection probability of ^131mXe, ^133mXe, ¹³³Xe, and ¹³⁵Xe at 39 noble gas systems in the International Monitoring System (IMS) for both current and next-generation systems. Three release scenarios are defined at 1 h, 1 d, and 10 d past a 1 kt TNT equivalent ²³⁵U explosion event. Multiple cases using from one part in a million to the complete release of the xenon isotopic activity are evaluated for each scenario. Coverage maps and global integrals comparing current and next-generation monitoring systems are presented showing that next-generation noble gas systems will create measurable improvements in the IMS. The global detection probability for ¹³³Xe is shown to be strong in all scenarios, but only modestly improved by next-generation equipment. However, the detection probability for ^131mXe and ^133mXe increased to about 50% in different scenarios, providing a second detectable isotope for many events. As anticipated from shorter sampling intervals, the expected number of detecting samples roughly doubled and the expected number of detecting stations rose by approximately 50% for all release scenarios. Thus, it might be anticipated that future events would consist of multiple ¹³³Xe detections and one or more second isotope detections. Signals of this nature should increase detection confidence, tighten release location estimates, improve rejection of civilian signals, and lessen the impacts from individual systems being offline for maintenance or repair reasons.

Using STAX data to predict IMS radioxenon concentrations

The noble gas collection and measurement stations in the International Monitoring System (IMS) are heavily influenced by releases from medical isotope production facilities. The ability to reliably model the movement of radioxenon from the points of release to these IMS samplers has improved enough that a routine aspect of the analysis of IMS radioxenon data should be the prediction of the effect of releases from industrial nuclear facilities on the sample concentrations. Predicted concentrations at IMS noble gas systems in Germany and Sweden based on measured releases from Institute for Radioelements (IRE) in Belgium and atmospheric transport modeling for a four-month period are presented and discussed.

Gas diffusion through variably-water-saturated zeolitic tuff: Implications for transport following a subsurface nuclear event

Noble gas transport through geologic media has important applications in the characterization of underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). Without accurate transport models, it is nearly impossible to distinguish between xenon signatures originating from civilian nuclear facilities and UNEs. Understanding xenon transport time through the earth is a key parameter for interpreting measured xenon isotopic ratios. One of the most challenging aspects of modeling gas transport time is accounting for the effect of variable water saturation of geological media. In this study, we utilize bench-scale laboratory experiments to characterize the diffusion of krypton, xenon, and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) through intact zeolitic tuff under different saturations. We demonstrate that the water in rock cores with low partial saturation dramatically affects xenon transport time compared to that of krypton and SF₆ by blocking sites in zeolitic tuff that preferentially adsorb xenon. This leads to breakthrough trends that are strongly influenced by the degree of the rock saturation. Xenon is especially susceptible to this phenomenon, a finding that is crucial to incorporate in subsurface gas transport models used for nuclear event identification. We also find that the breakthrough of SF₆ diverges significantly from that of noble gases within our system. When developing field scale models, it is important to understand how the behavior of xenon deviates from chemical tracers used in the field, such as SF₆ (Carrigan et al., 1996). These new insights demonstrate the critical need to consider the interplay between rock saturation and fission product sorption during transport modeling, and the importance of evaluating specific interactions between geomedia and gases of interest, which may differ from geomedia interactions with chemical tracers.

Impact of the noble gas system NEX48 in Niger on the radioxenon global network coverage for the International Monitoring System of the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty

The radioxenon measurement components of the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) play a significant role in uncovering clandestine nuclear weapons tests. The radioxenon network coverage is a critical component of the IMS capabilities. NEX48 is one of the still to-be-certified radioxenon stations and it will be the only IMS station with radioxenon measurement capabilities in the Sahara desert in Central Africa. Therefore, it may increase the radioxenon global coverage in a vast region. Seasonal contributions from NEX48 (in Niger) on the ¹³³Xe global coverage of the IMS have been investigated in current and complete (39 stations) networks for a hypothetical one-kt subsurface nuclear explosion using atmospheric transport modelling. Adding NEX48 to the stations currently operating increased the daily global coverage by about 1.1 percent on average with most of the improvement between 15-45 N latitudes and 0-40 E longitudes. The improvements from adding NEX48 vary greatly by the seasons of the year. Removing NEX48 from the complete network leads to a daily coverage deterioration of about 0.2 percent, and the cumulative minimum coverage has a significant change.

Uncertainty quantification of atmospheric transport and dispersion modelling using ensembles for CTBT verification applications

Airborne concentrations of specific radioactive xenon isotopes (referred to as "radioxenon") are monitored globally as part of the verification regime of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, as these could be the signatures of a nuclear explosion. However, civilian nuclear facilities emit a regulated amount of radioxenon that can interfere with the very sensitive monitoring network. One approach to deal with this civilian background of radioxenon for Treaty verification purposes, is to explicitly simulate the expected radioxenon concentration from civilian sources at monitoring stations using atmospheric transport modelling. However, atmospheric transport modelling is prone to uncertainty, and the absence of an uncertainty quantification can limit its use for detection screening. In this paper, several ensembles are assessed that could provide an atmospheric transport modelling uncertainty quantification. These ensembles are validated with radioxenon observations, and recommendations are given for atmospheric transport modelling uncertainty quantification. Finally, the added value of an ensemble for detection screening is illustrated.

Evaluation of subsurface transport processes of delayed gas signatures applicable to underground nuclear explosions

Radioactive gas signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) result from gas-migration processes occurring in the subsurface. The processes considered in this study either drive or retard upward migration of gases from the detonation cavity. The relative importance of these processes is evaluated by simulating subsurface transport in a dual-permeability medium for the multi-tracer Noble Gas Migration Experiment (NGME) originally intended to study some aspects of transport from a UNE. For this experiment, relevant driving processes include weak two-phase convection driven by the geothermal gradient, over pressuring of the detonation cavity, and barometric pumping while gas sorption, dissolution, radioactive decay, and usually diffusion represent retarding processes. From deterministic simulations we found that over-pressuring of the post-detonation chimney coupled with barometric pumping produced a synergistic effect amplifying the tracer-gas reaching the surface. Bounding simulations indicated that the sorption and dissolution of gases, tending to retard transport, were much smaller than anticipated by earlier laboratory studies. The NGME observations themselves show that differences in gas diffusivity have a larger effect on influencing upward transport than do the combined effects of tracer-gas sorption and dissolution, which is consistent with a Sobol’ sensitivity analysis. Both deterministic simulations and those considering parametric uncertainties of transport-related properties predict that the excess in concentration of SF\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$_6$$\end{document}6 compared to \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$^{127}$$\end{document}127Xe as might be captured in small volumetric samples should be much smaller than the order-of-magnitude contrast found in the large-volume gas samples taken at the site. While extraction of large-volume subsurface gas samples is shown to be capable of distorting in situ gas compositions, the highly variable injection rate of SF\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$_6$$\end{document}6 into the detonation cavity relative to that of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$^{127}$$\end{document}127Xe at the start of the field experiment is the most likely explanation for the large difference in observed concentrations.

Enabling probabilistic retrospective transport modeling for accurate source detection

Predicting source or background radionuclide emissions is limited by the effort needed to run gas/aerosol atmospheric transport models (ATMs). A high-performance surrogate model is developed for the HYSPLIT4 (NOAA) ATM to accelerate transport simulation through model reduction, code optimization, and improved scaling on high performance computing systems. The surrogate model parameters are a grid of short-duration transport simulations stored offline. The surrogate model then predicts the path of a plume of radionuclide particles emitted from a source, or the field of sources which may have contributed to a detected signal, more efficiently than direct simulation by HYSPLIT4. Termed the Atmospheric Transport Model Surrogate (ATaMS), this suite of capabilities forms a basis to accelerate workflows for probabilistic source prediction and estimation of the radionuclide atmospheric background.

Investigations of association among atmospheric radionuclide measurements

Large networks producing frequent atmospheric radionuclide measurements have additional power in characterizing and localizing radionuclide release events over the analysis performed with four or fewer radionuclide measurements. However, adding unrelated measurements to an analysis dilutes that advantage, unless source-term models are extended to account for this complexity. A key steppingstone to obtaining network power is to select a group of related sample measurements that are associated with a release event. Such collections of measurements can be assembled by an analyst, or perhaps they can be selected by algorithm. The authors explore, using a year of atmospheric transport calculations and realistic sensor sensitivities, the potential for a computed radionuclide association tool.

An investigation on the 133Xe global network coverage for the International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

The radionuclides part of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) global network of International Monitoring System (IMS) is based on the measurement of particles and radioactive noble gases. Forty radionuclide stations are going to be equipped with radioxenon measurement components to monitor the nuclear explosion signatures around the world. Global coverage of the noble gas IMS stations has been investigated using atmospheric transport modelling. Two years of worldwide release for a hypothetical 1-kt underground nuclear explosion and detection of ¹³³Xe in the IMS radioxenon station locations are considered. The present and completed status were supposed as two different scenarios to estimate the daily coverage of the network. The calculated quantities were evaluated corresponding to the whole latitude/longitude grid in image-base and numerical patterns. Although the fluctuation of daily coverage is varying in time, the cumulative minimum amounts were indicated that North America has stable high coverage in the present arrangement. Moreover, after the completion of the network, this aspect will be expanded to the middle part of the Northern Hemisphere as well as the west region of the Southern Hemisphere. Finally exploring the cumulative maximum daily coverage is denoted that adding the non-operational stations to the current network has a great influence on the 20 S - 90 N latitudes to 0-180 W longitudes and about 50% effect on the network coverage (NC) of the north of Europe, South Atlantic, and Oceania. However, it has almost no impact on the values of the limited area around the middle east part of the Pacific Ocean.

Classification of radioxenon spectra with deep learning algorithm

In this study, we propose for the first time a model of classification for Beta-Gamma coincidence radioxenon spectra using a deep learning approach through the convolution neural network (CNN) technique. We utilize the entire spectrum of actual data from a noble gas system in Charlottesville (USX75 station) between 2012 and 2019. This study shows that the deep learning categorization can be done as an important pre-screening method without directly involving critical limits and abnormal thresholds. Our results demonstrate that the proposed approach of combining nuclear engineering and deep learning is a promising tool for assisting experts in accelerating and optimizing the review process of clean background and CTBT-relevant samples with high classification average accuracies of 92% and 98%, respectively.

Evaluating the added value of multi-input atmospheric transport ensemble modeling for applications of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty organization (CTBTO)

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) runs to date operationally an atmospheric transport modeling chain in backward mode based on operational deterministic European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) and on National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) input data. Meanwhile, ensemble dispersion modeling is becoming more and more widespread due to the ever increasing computational power and storage capacities. The potential benefit of this approach for current and possible future CTBTO applications was investigated using data from the ECMWF-Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Five different test cases - among which are the ETEX-I experiment and the Fukushima accident - were run in backward or forward mode and - in the light of a future operational application - special emphasis was put on the performance of an arbitrarily selected 10- versus the full 51-member ensemble. For those test cases run in backward mode and based on a puff release it became evident that Possible Source Regions (PSRs) can be meaningfully reduced in size compared to results based solely on the deterministic run by applying minimum and probability of exceedance ensemble metrics. It was further demonstrated that a given puff release of 4E10 Bq of Se-75 can be reproduced within the meteorological uncertainty range [1.9E9 Bq,1.7E13 Bq] including a probability for not exceeding an assumed upper limit source term using simple scaling of a measurement with the corresponding ensemble metrics of backward fields. For the test cases run in forward mode it was found that the control run as well as 10- and 51-member medians all exhibit similar performance in time series evaluation. Maximum rank difference adds up to less than 10% with reference to possible rank values [0,4]. The maximum difference in the Brier score for both ensembles is less than 3%. The main added value of the ensemble lies in producing meteorologically induced concentration uncertainties and thus explaining observed measurements at specific sites. Depending on the specific test case and on the ensemble size between 27 and 74% of samples all lie within concentration ranges derived from the different meteorological fields used. In the future uncertainty information per sample could be used in a full source term inversion to account for the meteorological uncertainty in a proper way. It can be concluded that a 10-member meteorological ensemble is good enough to already benefit from useful ensemble properties. Meteorological uncertainty to a large degree is covered by the 10-member subset because forecast uncertainty is largely suppressed due to concatenating analyses and short term forecasts, as required in the operational CTBTO procedure, on which this study focuses. Besides, members from different analyses times are on average unrelated. It was recommended to Working Group B of CTBTO to implement the ensemble system software in the near future.

Possible impacts of molten salt reactors on the International Monitoring System

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) are gaining support as many countries look for ways to increase power generation and replace aging nuclear energy production facilities. MSRs have inherently safe designs, are scalable in size, can burn transuranic wastes from traditional solid fuel nuclear reactors, can store excess heat in thermal reservoirs for water desalination, and can be used to produce medical isotopes as part of the real-time liquid-fuel recycling process. The ability to remove ¹³⁵Xe in real time from the fuel improves the power production in an MSR because ¹³⁵Xe is the most significant neutron-absorbing isotope generated by nuclear fission. Xenon-135, and other radioactive gases, are removed by sparging the fuel with an inert gas while the liquid fuel is recirculated from the reactor inner core through the heat exchangers. Without effective abatement technologies, large amounts of radioactive gas could be released during the sparging process. This work examines the potential impact of radioxenon releases on samplers used by the International Monitoring System (IMS) to detect nuclear explosions. Atmospheric transport simulations from seven hypothetical MSRs on different continents were used to evaluate the holdup time needed before release of radioxenon so IMS samplers would register few detections. Abatement technologies that retain radioxenon isotopes for at least 120 d before their release will be needed to mitigate the impacts from a molten salt breeder reactor used to replace a nuclear power plant. A holdup time of about 150 d is needed to reduce emissions to the average level of current nuclear power plants.

A Closed-form Solution for Source-term Emission of Xenon Isotopes from Underground Nuclear Explosions

Isotopic ratios of radioactive xenons sampled in the subsurface and atmosphere can be used to detect underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and civilian nuclear reactors. Disparities in the half-lives of the radioactive decay chains are principally responsible for time-dependent concentrations of xenon isotopes. Contrasting timescales, combined with modern detection capabilities, make the xenon isotopic family a desirable surrogate for UNE detection. However, without including the physical details of post-detonation cavity changes that affect radioxenon evolution and subsurface transport, a UNE is treated as an idealized system that is both closed and well mixed for estimating xenon isotopic ratios and their correlations so that the spatially dependent behavior of xenon production, cavity leakage, and transport are overlooked. In this paper, we developed a multi-compartment model with radioactive decay and interactions between compartments. The model does not require the detailed domain geometry and parameterization that is normally needed by high-fidelity computer simulations, but can represent nuclide evolution within a compartment and migration among compartments under certain conditions. The closed-form solution to all nuclides in the series 131–136 is derived using analytical singular-value decomposition. The solution is further used to express xenon ratios as functions of time and compartment position.

Decision trees for optimizing the minimum detectable concentration of radioxenon detectors

We present a novel application of machine learning techniques to optimize the design of a radiation detection system. A decision tree-based algorithm is described which greedily optimizes partitioning of energy depositions based on a minimum detectable concentration metric - appropriate for radiation measurement. We apply this method to the task of optimizing sensitivity to radioxenon decays in the presence of a high rate of radon-progeny backgrounds (i.e., assuming no physical radon removal by traditional gas separation techniques). Assuming other backgrounds are negligible, and considering sensitivity to each xenon isotope separately (neglecting interference between isotopes), we find that, in general, high resolution readout and high spatial segmentation yield little additional capability to discriminate against radon backgrounds compared to simpler detector designs.

6 months of radioxenon detection in western Europe with the SPALAX-New generation system - Part 2: Atmospheric transport modelling

Atmospheric transport modeling has been used to interpret the unprecedented number of multi-isotope detections of radioxenons observed during the six months of the qualification process by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization of the new SPALAX-NG system (Système de Prélèvement Automatique en Ligne avec l'Analyse du Xénon - Nouvelle Génération). Highest ¹³³Xe activity concentrations were found to be systematically associated with the concomitant measurement of several other radioxenons at the prevailing wind direction of north/northeast pointing to the Institute for Radio Elements (IRE), a medical isotope production facility located in Fleurus (Belgium). The lowest ¹³³Xe activity concentrations were not associated with a prevailing wind direction or other radioxenons, indicating the contribution of distant sources (global background). The IRE's average source terms for ^133mXe and to a lesser extent for ¹³³Xe (slightly overestimated by a factor of 1.7) showed good agreement with the literature values, while corrections by a factor of ~23 and ~53 were proposed for ^131mXe and ¹³⁵Xe since the initial values were underestimated. However, detections of ^131mXe alone and some low-activity concentrations of ¹³³Xe associated with only one of the other radioxenons could not be linked to the IRE releases. Analysis of these cases suggests the contribution of local source releases that have been difficult to identify to date. In addition to the global background, releases from such local sources, if not identified, could affect the analysis of the isotopic ratios measured following a nuclear test. The characterization of these local contributions is now possible owing to the capacity of the SPALAX-NG and other new generation measurements systems.

Source type estimation using noble gas samples

A Bayesian source-term algorithm recently published by Eslinger et al. (2019) extended previous models by including the ability to discriminate between classes of releases such as nuclear explosions, nuclear power plants, or medical isotope production facilities when multiple isotopes are measured. Using 20 release cases from a synthetic data set previously published by Haas et al. (2017), algorithm performance was demonstrated on the transport scale (400-1000 km) associated with the radionuclide samplers in the International Monitoring System. Inclusion of multiple isotopes improves release location and release time estimates over analyses using only a single isotope. The ability to discriminate between classes of releases does not depend on the accuracy of the location or time of release estimates. For some combinations of isotopes, the ability to confidently discriminate between classes of releases requires only a few samples.

Effects of natural zeolites on field-scale geologic noble gas transport

Improving predictive models for noble gas transport through natural materials at the field-scale is an essential component of improving US nuclear monitoring capabilities. Several field-scale experiments with a gas transport component have been conducted at the Nevada National Security Site (Non-Proliferation Experiment, Underground Nuclear Explosion Signatures Experiment). However, the models associated with these experiments have not treated zeolite minerals as gas adsorbing phases. This is significant as zeolites are a common alteration mineral with a high abundance at these field sites and are shown here to significantly fractionate noble gases during field-scale transport. This fractionation and associated retardation can complicate gas transport predictions by reducing the signal-to-noise ratio to the detector (e.g. mass spectrometers or radiation detectors) enough to mask the signal or make the data difficult to interpret. Omitting adsorption-related retardation data of noble gases in predictive gas transport models therefore results in systematic errors in model predictions where zeolites are present.Herein is presented noble gas adsorption data collected on zeolitized and non-zeolitized tuff. Experimental results were obtained using a unique piezometric adsorption system designed and built for this study. Data collected were then related to pure-phase mineral analyses conducted on clinoptilolite, mordenite, and quartz. These results quantify the adsorption capacity of materials present in field-scale systems, enabling the modeling of low-permeability rocks as significant sorption reservoirs vital to bulk transport predictions.

Cavity-melt partitioning of refractory radionuclides and implications for detecting underground nuclear explosions

Isotopic ratios of radioxenon captured in the atmosphere can be indicators of the occurrence of an underground nuclear explosion. However, civilian sources of xenon isotopes, such as medical isotope production facilities and nuclear reactors, can interfere with detection of signals associated with nuclear testing, according to a standard model of the evolution of radioxenon isotopic abundances in a nuclear explosion cavity. We find that this standard model is idealized by not including the effects of physical processes resulting in the partitioning of the radionuclide inventory between a gas phase and rock melt created by the detonation and by ignoring seepage or continuous leakage of gases from the cavity or zone of collapse. Application of more realistic assumptions about the state of the detonation cavity results in isotopic activity ratios that differ from the civilian background more than the idealized standard model suggests, while also reducing the quantity of radioxenon available for atmospheric release and subsequent detection. Our simulations indicate that the physical evolution of the detonation cavity during the post-detonation partitioning process strongly influences isotopic evolution in the gas phase. Collapse of the cavity potentially has the greatest effect on partitioning of the refractory fission products that are precursors to radioxenon. The model allows for the possibility that post-detonation seismicity can be used to predict isotopic evolution.

Rare observation of atmospheric 65Zn, 134Cs and 137Cs with possible relation to the 12 February 2013 test announced by North Korea

Abnormal particulate radionuclides (⁶⁵Zn, ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs) were detected at the CTBTO RN58 station which is located near North Korea between 12 and March 14, 2016. Detection ratio for caesium (¹³⁴Cs/¹³⁷Cs) shows that the product origin was nuclear explosion and dilution factors at RN58, released from DPRK test site, show clear correlation with radioactivity concentration of two samples. The detected radionuclides may be originated from the third nuclear test, February 2013. Half-life, radionuclides fractionation, MDC, and device design are attributed to no detection of other nuclides. Most of radionuclides have been decayed away and relatively long half-life nuclides might be in the third test site but they were displaced deep inside the area by fractionation during the explosion. Considering ⁶⁵Zn activity ratio to ¹³⁷Cs which is higher than historical ratios at Brunswick in 1968, there is a possibility that the third DPRK nuclear test was a "salted" nuclear bomb test using zinc as jacket instead of fissionable ²³⁸U around the secondary stage fusion fuel.

The detectability of the Wigwam underwater nuclear explosion by the radionuclide stations of the International Monitoring System

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) bans all nuclear explosions, including those detonated from an underwater nuclear explosion. To improve the understanding of the radionuclide signatures of such an event, and whether it would be detectable under the verification regime of the CTBT, the 1955 Wigwam underwater nuclear explosive test has been modelled. Inventory calculations and atmospheric transport modelling has been performed to estimate the activity at the radionuclide stations (RN) of the International Monitoring System (IMS). This has utilized reported release values (0.92%) and meteorological data from the event. The research shows that there is a high probability that Wigwam would have been detectable at U.S. IMS stations at Wake Island (RN77) at 8.4 d, Upi, Guam (RN80) at 10.7 d and Sand Point, AK (RN71) at 13.7 d. At these locations, the majority of IMS relevant radionuclides were fission products, such that additional radionuclides from the seawater activation had largely decayed before reaching the stations.

A new method for analysis of beta-gamma radioxenon spectra

A new method for calculation of isotope-specific activities and activity concentrations in measurement systems for atmospheric radioxenon is presented. The method results in simple matrix-vector equations, and requires the definition of fewer spectral regions-of-interest than previous algorithms. The most important difference compared to the current method is however the calculation of decision limits, which results in false detection rates closer to the selected confidence level of 95% compared to the methods used today. This is achieved by introducing a Bayesian correction of the background estimate. The results have implications for the understanding of the atmospheric radioxenon background, for example for the observed low levels of ^133mXe, an important isotope in the area of nuclear explosion detection.

Experimental facility for the production of reference atmosphere of radioactive gases (Rn, Xe, Kr, and H isotopes)

Radioactive gases are of great interest for environmental measurements and can be distinguished in two categories. The natural radionuclides such as the isotopes of radon (²²²Rn and ²²⁰Rn), and the anthropogenic radionuclides coming from fission products (isotopes of Xe and ⁸⁵Kr) and activation products (³H and ³⁷Ar). Gas monitoring in the environment is an important issue for radioprotection and for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which both require metrological traceability of these gases. For this purpose, two gas chambers, of 42 L and 125 L, have been conceived and built at the LNE-LNHB to produce reference atmospheres of various gas mixtures. These chambers were created in order to provide any radioactive gas atmosphere with a wide range of activity concentrations (Bq·m^-3 to MBq·m^-3). The goal of this setup is to be representative of the different environmental conditions for detector qualification and to perform studies of radioactive gas absorption in materials of interest. As a result, the 2 chambers used in this experimental facility are designed to work from vacuum pressure to atmospheric pressure, with a constant activity concentration for any radioactive gas, and under dry to high humidity conditions. It can also be used in a static mode, in which the activity concentration will follow the radioactive decay of the gas. In this paper, the characterization of the chambers will be discussed. These two chambers are combined with different primary standards established by the LNE-LNHB. As the production of the reference atmosphere depends on the primary standard method, we present the details for each atmosphere production, which require a well-known volume, pressure or a direct activity concentration measurement.

A stilbene - CdZnTe based radioxenon detection system

Atmospheric monitoring of radioxenon is one of the most widely used methods by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) to detect elevated levels of ^131mXe, ^133/133mXe, and ¹³⁵Xe. The ratios of these radionuclides help discriminate between peaceful use of nuclear technology and nuclear weapon explosions. Radioxenon detection systems often use plastic scintillators in the capacity of an electron detector and a gas cell, plastic gas cells are responsible for introducing high memory effect in these systems. This work presents the design of a new detection system for radioxenon monitoring that utilizes silicon photomultipliers, a stilbene gas cell, and a CdZnTe detector. This detector was evaluated using xenon radioisotope samples produced in the TRIGA reactor at Oregon State University. A 48-h background was collected and calculations of the Minimum Detectable Concentration (MDC) were carried out using the Region of Interest (ROI) approach. An MDC of less than 1 mBq/m³ was obtained for ^131mXe, ¹³³Xe, and ^133mXe in accordance with the sensitivity limits set by the CTBTO and performs respectably when compared to state-of-the-art radioxenon detection systems. Using ^131mXe, this study indicates that the stilbene gas cell exhibits a memory effect of 0.045 ± 0.017%, this is almost a two-order magnitude improvement compared to plastic scintillators. The primary purpose of this work is to explore the use of new stilbene detection media for radioxenon application and addressing the problem of memory effect.

Source term estimation using multiple xenon isotopes in atmospheric samples

Algorithms that estimate the location and magnitude of an atmospheric release using remotely sampled air concentrations typically involve a single chemical or radioactive isotope. A new Bayesian algorithm is presented that makes discrimination between possible types of releases (e.g., nuclear explosion, nuclear power plant, or medical isotope production facility) an integral part of the analysis for samples that contain multiple isotopes. Algorithm performance is demonstrated using synthetic data and correctly discriminated between most release-type hypotheses, with higher accuracy when data are available on three or more isotopes.

Utility of atmospheric transport runs done backwards in time for source term estimation

One of the difficulties encountered in source-term analyses for airborne contaminants is the large computational effort required to predict air concentrations for all possible release scenarios. In some cases, analysts use atmospheric ATM runs with complex models done in the reverse-time direction because one ATM run done backwards in time for each sample can yield as much information as potentially hundreds or thousands of ATM runs done forwards in time. Unfortunately, the effective atmospheric dilution between the source and sampling locations differ depending on the time direction of the ATM run, with runs in the forward time direction being more realistic. No general studies have been published comparing the agreement between runs in the two time directions. Over 18000 ATM runs at 14 release locations were used to explore the agreement between dilution factors for the forward and reversed time directions at distances up to 1000 km from the release point. Ten of the release locations have a correlation below 0.9, with the lowest correlations occurring over mountainous terrain. The release locations were estimated using the time-reversed ATM runs, with 26% of the estimated release points being within 10 km of the modeled release point, 61% within 25 km, and 80% within 50 km. Most of the location differences greater than 50 km occur for two release locations in mountainous terrain. Good time-reversibility cannot be guaranteed for a new analysis, so we recommend any source-term solution using time-reversed ATM runs should include comparisons based on forward time ATM runs.

Source term estimation in the presence of nuisance signals

Many source-term estimation algorithms for atmospheric releases assume the measured concentration data are influenced only by the releases of interest. However, there are situations where identifying a short-term release from an unknown location in the presence of long-term releases from a different location is of interest. One such example is determining if part or all of a typical magnitude concentration of a radioactive isotope in a sampler came from a nuclear explosion, such as the explosion announced by DPRK in 2013, while medical isotope facilities and nuclear power plants were also operating in the region. An estimation algorithm has been developed for the case where a short-duration release is confounded by a long-term nuisance signal associated with an additional release location. The technique is demonstrated using synthetic release data for a hypothetical medical isotope production facility and a hypothetical puff release from a different location. The algorithm successfully determines the location (within 30 km) and time-varying release rate (within a factor of 2) for the medical isotope production facility and the location (within 60 km), time (within 6 h), and release magnitude (within a factor of 4) of the puff release.

Iodine solubility and speciation in glasses

The study of iodine in glasses and melts is critical in many areas, from geosciences to materials science to waste management. Glasses in the ternary system Na₂O-B₂O₃-SiO₂ were studied with the goal of identifying a glass matrix able to dissolve large quantities of this element, and to identify the main parameters affecting the solubility of iodine. Two sets of experiments were carried out: the first one with the aim of determining the solubility limit of iodine, and the second one to identify the structural variations occurring within the glass network upon iodine incorporation, and to identify the parameters influencing the most both iodine solubility and speciation. We demonstrated that there is a strong dependence of iodine incorporation on bulk chemistry and glass physical properties. A solubility limit of ~5 mol% I has been assessed for B₂O₃-rich glasses and of ~1 mol% for SiO₂-rich ones, and this composition dependence has been explained by considering the fragility parameter of the glass network. Structural variations in the iodine local environment and in the glass network were characterized by Raman, X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy, and ¹¹B NMR. Spectroscopy data point out the coexistence of different I species within the glasses, with iodide being the predominant one, surrounded by Na⁺ ions.

Validation of source detective system of the radionuclides measured in the atmosphere using a field tracer experiment

A source detective system has been developed to estimate unknown source regions and release rates of radionuclides released into the air from covert nuclear activities and accidents. This system is composed of trajectory, atmospheric dispersion, and source term estimation models. Simulated results were compared with the measurements of a field tracer experiment performed at the Yeonggwang nuclear power plant in Korea in May 1996. Two trajectories among five computed backward trajectories moved toward the original release point, and the comparative results contained some error due to single operation of the backward trajectory model. An atmospheric dispersion model was used to minimize the error of the trajectory model and to improve the accuracy of the source detective system. The results generated by the trajectory and atmospheric dispersion models together agreed better with the measurements than those obtained using the trajectory model alone.

The characteristic release of noble gases from an underground nuclear explosion

Prompt release of gases at the ground surface resulting from explosively propagated vents or large operational releases has typically been considered to be the only mode of transport for detonation gases from an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) giving rise to detectable levels of radioxenon gases in downwind atmospheric samples captured at distances exceeding 100 km. Using a model for thermally and barometrically driven post-detonation transport across the broad surface of a simulated UNE site, we show in conjunction with the results of an atmospheric tracer-release experiment that even deep, well-contained UNEs, without prompt vents or leaks, are potentially detectable tens of kilometers downwind with current technology; distances that are significant for localizing the source of detected atmospheric signals during on-site monitoring or inspection. For a given yield, the bulk permeability of the UNE site and to a lesser extent the depth of detonation appear to be the primary source-term parameters controlling the distance of detection from the detonation point. We find for test-site bulk permeabilities exceeding 1 darcy (10^-12 m²) that broad-area surface fluxes of radioxenon gas exhibit exponential dependence on permeability resulting in order-of-magnitude enhancements of surface flux for changes in permeability of only a darcy. Simulations of subsurface transport assuming a canonical detonation-depth-versus-nuclear-yield relationship generally resulted in larger atmospheric signals for shallower, lower-yield explosions allowing downwind detection at distances greater than 1000 km. Additionally, atmospheric simulations suggest that the lowest atmospheric boundary layer heights, such as occur at night, produced concentrations above minimum detectable levels at the greatest distances downwind.

Medical isotope production, research reactors and their contribution to the global xenon background

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) bans the testing of nuclear explosive devices underground, in the atmosphere and underwater. Two main technologies, radionuclide and seismo-acoustic monitoring, are deployed in the International Monitoring System used for the verification of the CTBT. Medical isotope production from fission-based processes is the dominant contributor to a worldwide background of radioxenon. This background can make the discrimination of nuclear tests from legitimate nuclear activities very challenging. Even if emissions from medical isotope producers experienced a large reduction, there remain other important sources of radioxenon that contribute to the global background such as research reactors and nuclear power plants. Until recently, the largest producer of medical isotopes was located in Canada, at the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) facility. The characterization of CNL emissions and its research reactor can provide valuable information for effective verification of the CTBT.