Quantitative estimation of uncertainty in human risk analysis

Achieving decent living standards in emerging economies challenges national mitigation goals for CO2 emissions

Emerging economies, low- and middle-income countries experiencing rapid population and GDP growth, face the challenge of improving their living standards while stabilizing CO2 emissions to meet net-zero goals. In this study, we quantify the CO2 emissions required for achieving decent living standards (DLS) in emerging economies. The results show that, compared to other regions, achieving DLS in emerging Asian and African economies will result in more additional CO2 emissions, particularly in the DLS indicators of Mobility and Electricity. Achievement of DLS in emerging economies will result in 8.6 Gt of additional CO2 emissions, which should not jeopardize global climate targets. However, a concerning trend arises as more than half of the emerging economies (62 out of 121) will face substantial challenges in aligning their expected emission growth for achieving DLS with their national emission mitigation targets.

HERisk: An improved spatio-temporal human health risks assessment software

Risk assessment is considered an essential tool to assist in the management and mitigation of polluted areas, especially those associated with economic activities that significantly degrade the environment, such as mining. However, most of the methodologies of risk assessment adopt the deterministic approach of using a fixed value for ascertaining the hazards derived from exposure to chemical pollutants. However, this is not the case of the Human, Ecological and Radiological Risk (HERisk) code, which allows space-time assessments of ecological, radiological, and human health risks. Indeed, this work aims to describe this new software (enhanced version of HHRISK), which not only improves the performance of the code but also increases its applicability and versatility. To showcase its usefulness in evaluating ecological pollution and human health risk were studied the contents of potentially toxic elements (Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in soils and surface waters from the nickel mining area in the municipality of Itagibá (Bahia, Brazil). The obtained results showed that metals are non-homogeneous distributed, suggesting the presence of local enrichment sources, mainly related to human activities. The statistical analyses carried out revealed that mining and agricultural activities are possibly responsible for the contents of these pollutants in both soils and surface waters. The calculated ecological indices of pollution confirmed anthropogenic pollution around the mining area, especially in the locations closest to sterile waste piles. The results of the human health risk assessment revealed that the ingestion of meat and contaminated water are the main routes for entering the potentially toxic elements to the human body and that Co is the chemical specie that poses the highest risk in the entire region. The hazard index (HI) values indicated that the whole area around the mine should be considered as a high risk for human health.

HHRISK: A code for assessment of human health risk due to environmental chemical pollution

Chemical environmental pollution is currently one of the most concerning environmental problem on a global scale, due to the high risks posed to ecological systems and human health. Risk assessment methodologies are valuable tools for preventive management and the mitigation of human health risks. However, the application of these methodological tools involves several steps and the knowledge of many variables, which can hinder its correct implementation. The main objective of this work was the development of the computational code for human health risk assessment: HHRISK (Human Health Risk). This code allows for an agile and accurate risk assessment based on the methodology established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). Different from other published methods, the HHRISK code includes a new spatiotemporal matrix for the analysis of the aggregated risk (for multiple exposure pathways) and the cumulative (for exposure to multiple chemicals). HHRISK was applied to two case studies published dealing with the assessment of risk to human health through exposure to toxic metals, obtaining satisfactory results. The concordance between the average results obtained with the HHRISK and those reported by the authors confirm the validity of the implemented model. The inclusion of a greater spatiotemporal detail of the risks allowed to carry out a more accurate analysis and to propose new subsidies for a more efficient risk mitigation management by affected place and period of time.

Compact devices for generation of reference trace VOC mixtures: a new concept in assuring quality at chemical and biochemical laboratories

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in gas mixtures at trace level (nmol/mol) are routinely measured by chemical and biochemical laboratories as climate indicators, indoor air quality pollutants from building materials emissions, contaminants in food and beverages, and biomarkers in body fluids (blood, urine, breath) of occupational exposure or human diseases. Current analytical instruments used for measurements are gas chromatographs equipped with various injector and detector configurations. The assurance of measurement quality is done by using a huge amount of certified liquid VOC standard solutions (or gaseous VOC standard cylinders) with multiple dilutions to reach the required trace level. This causes high standard uncertainty in instrument calibrations, high cost, and high consumption of analysis and laboratory personal time. In this paper, we present the implementation of portable generators producing VOC gas standards at trace level for automatic and direct calibration of VOC detectors employed in various contexts, removing the need for preparation of matrix calibration standards in cylinders. Two compact devices in-house developed by two national metrology institutes-the Istituto Nazionale di Ricerca Metrologica (INRIM) and the Federal Institute of Metrology (METAS)-are here used to dynamically generate reference gas mixtures in an SI traceable way. The two devices are based on different technologies: diffusion and permeation, for INRIM and METAS, respectively. A metrological characterization is given and the practical implementation at chemical and biochemical laboratories is discussed. Graphical abstract Onsite calibration with transportable generation system with similar performances to primary laboratory devices.

Why endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) challenge traditional risk assessment and how to respond

Endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) are a diverse group of "chemicals of emerging concern" which have attracted much interest from the research community since the 1990s. Today there is still no definitive risk assessment tool for EDCs. While some decision making organizations have attempted to design methodology guidelines to evaluate the potential risk from this broadly defined group of constituents, risk assessors still face many uncertainties and unknowns. Until a risk assessment paradigm is designed specifically for EDCs and is vetted by the field, traditional risk assessment tools may be used with caution to evaluate EDCs. In doing so, each issue of contention should be addressed with transparency in order to leverage available information and technology without sacrificing integrity or accuracy. The challenges that EDCs pose to traditional risk assessment are described in this article to assist in this process.

A systematic review of methods of uncertainty analysis and their applications in the assessment of chemical exposures, effects, and risks

Methods of uncertainty analysis are being included increasingly in regulatory chemical risk assessment. Although best practices have been established by several safety agencies in Europe and the United States, they exist only in the grey literature - there has been no comprehensive analysis of the scientific, peer-reviewed literature on these methods. We therefore conducted a systematic review of the recent peer-reviewed literature (2007-2013) on uncertainty analysis relevant to chemical risks. The main objective was to determine whether current methods are robust enough for regulatory use, because the methods used to protect public health must meet the most stringent scientific standards. Based on 297 papers, we concluded that the peer-reviewed literature is much more critical about the disadvantages of those methods, compared to the grey literature. Furthermore, uncertainty analyses can be influenced significantly by subjective expert judgment. As a suggested improvement, we developed guidelines for transparent reporting of uncertainty assessment results.

Chemicals exposure: scoring procedure and uncertainty propagation in scenario selection for risk analysis

The present work aims to obtain a methodology to score dangerous chemical pollutants related to the exposure scenarios of human risk and to evaluate the uncertainty of the scoring procedure. For chronic human risk evaluation, the problem of characterizing the most dangerous situation is posed. In this paper a ranking procedure was assessed in order to score eight pollutants through a "scoring model" approach. The scoring system was organized in a matrix form in order to put in evidence the strong connection between properties of the substances and exposure scenarios. Two different modelling approaches were considered as cause-effect relationships for risk evaluation: Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) and a "mobility and degradation matrix". The first takes into account the exposure pathways (soil, water and air) and the exposure routes (inhalation, ingestion and dermal contact), while the second considers the capacity of the chemicals to move into the environment and the rate of degradation associated with chemical-biological processes as measure of persistence. A specific score for each chemical along its uncertainty were evaluated. The uncertainty of the scoring procedure was evaluated by using the law of propagation of uncertainty; it was used to estimate the global uncertainty related to each exposure pathway for the eight substances for both models. Results of scoring as well uncertainty put in evidence that the ordering of chemicals is strongly dependent on the model used and on the available data. The procedure is simple and easy to use and its implementation allows users to compare several and several compounds.

Uncertainty evaluation of human risk analysis (HRA) of chemicals by multiple exposure routes

The application of an ISO standard procedure (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM)) is here discussed to quantify uncertainty in human risk estimation under chronic exposure to hazardous chemical compounds. The procedure was previously applied to a simple model; in this article a much more complex model is used, i.e., multiple compound and multiple exposure pathways. Risk was evaluated using the usual methodologies: the deterministic reasonable maximum exposure (RME) and the statistical Monte Carlo method. In both cases, the procedures to evaluate uncertainty on risk values are detailed. Uncertainties were evaluated by different methodologies to account for the peculiarity of information about the single variable. The GUM procedure enables the ranking of variables by their contribution to uncertainty; it provides a criterion for choosing variables for deeper analysis. The obtained results show that the application of GUM procedure is easy and straightforward to quantify uncertainty and variability of risk estimation. Health risk estimation is based on literature data on a water table contaminated by three volatile organic compounds. Daily intake was considered by either ingestion of water or inhalation during showering. The results indicate one of the substances as the main contaminant, and give a criterion to identify the key component on which the treatment selection may be performed and the treatment process may be designed in order to reduce risk.