Economic booms and risky sexual behavior: evidence from Zambian copper mining cities

From a drought to HIV: An analysis of the effect of droughts on transactional sex and sexually transmitted infections in Malawi

Each year there are over 300 natural disasters globally with millions of victims that cost economic losses near USD$100 billion. In the context of climate change, an emerging literature linking extreme weather events to HIV infections suggests that efforts to control the HIV epidemic could be under threat. We used Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected during the 2015-2016 harsh drought that affected several areas of Malawi to provide new evidence on the effect of an unanticipated economic shock on sexual behaviours of young women and men. We find that amongst women employed in agriculture, a six-months drought doubles their likelihood of engaging in transactional sex compared to women who were not affected by the drought and increases their likelihood of having a sexually transmitted infections (STI) by 48% in the past twelve months. Amongst men employed outside of agriculture, drought increases by 50% the likelihood of having a relationship with a woman engaged in transactional sex. These results suggest that women in agriculture experiencing economic shocks as a result of drought use transactional sex with unaffected men, i.e. men employed outside agriculture, as a coping mechanism, exposing themselves to the risk of contracting HIV. The effect was especially observed among non-educated women. A single drought in the last five years increases HIV prevalence in Malawi by around 15% amongst men and women. Overall, the results confirm that weather shocks are important drivers of risky sexual behaviours of young women relying on agriculture in Africa. Further research is needed to investigate the most adequate formal shock-coping strategies to be implemented in order to limit the negative consequences of natural disasters on HIV acquisition and transmission.

Coping with risk: Negative shocks, transactional sex, and the limitations of conditional cash transfers

Transactional sex is an important risk-coping mechanism and a leading contributor to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. We use data from a conditional cash transfer (CCT) experiment in rural Tanzania designed to incentivize safer sexual behavior by conditioning transfers on testing negative for sexually transmitted infections (STIs). For women, we find that negative shocks measured by food insecurity lead to a 36% increase in STIs and increases in self-reported risky sexual behavior. We find no significant effects of negative shocks on either STIs or self-reported sexual behavior for men. This CCT design did not appear to mitigate the behavioral response to shocks that we document in women. We propose that this finding can be explained by binding credit constraints and the relatively infrequent timing of the CCTs. When women experience a negative shock, cash needs are immediate, while transfers linked to a CCT are paid out in a specific point in time. If women are unable to access credit during a shock, they may resort to transactional sex even if they face monetary incentives to do otherwise.

A review of transactional sex for natural resources: Under-researched, overstated, or unique to fishing economies?

Environmental change is projected to decrease the availability of key natural resources. Decreasing availability of resources that support food security and livelihoods for vulnerable populations is hypothesised to increase engagement in transactional sex. Therefore, we systematically examined the peer-reviewed literature to characterise what is known about transactional sex for natural resources, document the natural resources that are exchanged for sex, and identify qualitative trends. Of the 1063 articles, 33 were retained for full abstraction. A majority of articles were published after 2005 (93%) and focused on Africa (90%). Two-thirds of articles focused on sex-for-fish exchanges. Reports of transactional sex were also found for other resources, including agricultural land (12%) as well as food, water, and fuel in emergency contexts (12%). Migration and altered resource availability were described as underlying causes of transactional sex. Some studies described an increased risk of sexually transmitted infection, including HIV, as a health consequence of transactional sex. We offer three possible explanations for why the preponderance of previous studies have focused on sex-for-fish rather than other natural resources, and suggest directions for future research.

Modeling the Impact of Transcendental Meditation on Stroke Incidence and Mortality

OBJECTIVES

Meditation has shown promise in clinical trials in reducing systolic blood pressure, one of the main risk factors for stroke. We aim to estimate the potential benefits of popularizing meditation on stroke incidence and mortality in the United States (U.S.).

METHODS

We developed a dynamic population-based microsimulation model to simulate the disease progression of each individual and compute disease burden. We calibrated the microsimulation model for stroke incidence and further validated it by comparing the stroke-related mortality for each age group generated by the model with that observed in the U.S. We used the population simulation model to estimate the effects of meditation intervention on the number of stroke cases and deaths over a course of 15 years.

RESULTS

Our results show that we could avert nearly 200,000 stroke cases and 50,000 stroke-related deaths over the course of 15 years. Our sensitivity analysis reveals that most of the benefits come from applying the intervention for individuals older than 60 years. In addition, meditation acceptance and adherence rate play a critical role in its effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

The practice of meditation, if properly utilized along with the regular antihypertensive medication, could substantially alleviate the burden of stroke in the U.S. In order to design an effective meditation program, policymakers may prioritize funding to the programs that aim to encourage older individuals to practice meditation.

Fracking and risky behaviors: Evidence from Pennsylvania

In the past decade, the technological developments in the oil and natural gas extraction industry made the extraction of shale gas economically feasible and prompted local economic booms across the US. Anecdotal evidence suggests that areas with unconventional gas development experience a disproportionate increase in the young male population who are more likely to be involved in risk-taking behavior. Moreover, the sudden income gains or demographic shifts might increase the demand for various goods and services, including entertainment and illegal activities provided by the adult entertainment industry. We investigate the relationship between unconventional gas development and a variety of risk-taking outcomes such as sexually transmitted infections, and prostitution-related arrests. Our identification strategy exploits the variation in shale gas or unconventional well drilling across time and counties in conjecture with a number of datasets that allow us to investigate the potential mechanisms. Our findings indicate that Pennsylvania counties with fracking activities have higher rates of gonorrhea and chlamydia infections (7.8% and 2.6%, respectively), as well as higher prostitution related arrests (19.7%). We posit that changes in the labor market and associated impacts to income or composition of workers may play a role in the estimated effects, but we do not find evidence in support of these hypotheses.

A Review of Research on Health Outcomes for Workers, Home and Host Communities of Population Mobility Associated with Extractive Industries

With a growing awareness of the association between extractive industries, the nature of work in remote locations, population mobility and health status, there is a need to advance an evidence-based approach to ensuring the health of migrant and mobile populations, and the home and host communities with whom they interact. Through a narrative synthesis of peer-reviewed and grey literature, this review examines what is known, and the nature of research activity concerning the range of health impacts determined by the social conditions inherent with population mobility alongside mining and extractive industries; and the extent to which health outcomes impact on workers, and home and host communities. While much of the literature reviewed in the study considered health in a traditional disease or illness based approach, it is clear that many risk factors for the health of mobile workers in the sector reflect broader social determinants. To support the mitigation of individual and population vulnerability to infectious disease endemics, consideration of both the etiology and the social conditions that give rise to adverse health outcomes is required, including an improvement to workers' living conditions, the expansion of diagnostic and medical services, and an approach that ensures the right to health for mobile populations. To further improve upon the rich body of research, resources are required to implement robust data collection including epidemiological surveillance, outbreak monitoring and investigation, and the long term tracking of standardized health information at both origin locations and destination communities.

How to sell a condom? The impact of demand creation tools on male and female condom sales in resource limited settings

Despite condoms being cheap and effective in preventing HIV, there remains an 8billion shortfall in condom use in risky sex-acts. Social marketing organisations apply private sector marketing approaches to sell public health products. This paper investigates the impact of marketing tools, including promotion and pricing, on demand for male and female condoms in 52 countries between 1997 and 2009. A static model differentiates drivers of demand between products, while a dynamic panel data estimator estimates their short- and long-run impacts. Products are not equally affected: female condoms are not affected by advertising, but highly affected by interpersonal communication and HIV prevalence. Price and promotion have significant short- and long-run effects, with female condoms far more sensitive to price than male condoms. The design of optimal distribution strategies for new and existing HIV prevention technologies must consider both product and target population characteristics.

Endogenous risk-taking and physical appearance of sex workers

Previous research found that physical appearance affects the risk-taking of sex workers through offering unprotected services. This paper utilizes a large individual-level data set covering 16,583 pay-for-sex contracts in 2011 and 2012 by 2,517 female suppliers in Germany. Results based on instrumental variables suggest that the incentive for risk-taking is about twice as high than when assuming random assignment of risk-taking.

International migration and the propagation of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we identify and quantify the role of international migration in the propagation of HIV across sub-Saharan African countries. We use panel data on bilateral migration flows and HIV prevalence rates covering 44 countries after 1990. Controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, reverse causality, reflection issues, incorrect treatment of country fixed effects and spatial autocorrelation, we find evidence of a highly robust emigration-induced propagation mechanism. On the contrary, immigration has no significant effect. Numerical experiments reveal that the long-run effect of emigration accounts for more than 4 percent of the number of HIV cases in 15 countries (and more than 20 percent in 6 countries).

Effects of household shocks and poverty on the timing of traditional male circumcision and HIV risk in South Africa

Poverty may influence HIV risk by increasing vulnerability to economic shocks and thereby preventing key health investments. We explored this possibility by examining the relationship between household shocks and the timing of traditional male circumcision, a practice associated with considerable expense and whose HIV-prevention benefits are larger when done earlier, even within young adulthood. Using unique data on a sample of Xhosa men, a group that almost universally practices traditional circumcision, we found that respondents in the poorest households delayed circumcision by 2 years if a household member experienced loss of income or death and/or illness. The impact of these shocks declined with increasing household income. Our findings suggest that interventions that work to mitigate the impact of shocks among the poor may be useful in HIV prevention efforts. More generally, they illustrate that the relationship between HIV and wealth may be more nuanced than assumed in previous work.