Developing concepts on MELD: delta and cutoffs

Ursodeoxycholic acid treatment-induced GLOBE score changes are associated with liver transplantation-free survival in patients with primary biliary cholangitis

BACKGROUND

Treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) can improve the GLOBE score. We aimed to assess the association between changes in the GLOBE score (ΔGLOBE) and liver transplantation (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC who were treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA).

METHODS

Among UDCA-treated patients within the Global PBC cohort, the association between ΔGLOBE ( 0-1 : during first year of UDCA, 1-2 : during second year) and the risk of LT or death was assessed through Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

Overall, 3775 UDCA-treated patients were included; 3424 [90.7%] were female, median age 54.0 (IQR 45.9-62.4) years and median baseline GLOBE score was 0.25 (IQR -0.47 - 0.96). During a median follow-up of 7.2 (IQR 3.7-11.5) years, 730 patients reached the combined endpoint of LT or death. Median ΔGLOBE 0-1 was -0.27 (IQR -0.56 - 0.02). Cox regression analyses, adjusted for pretreatment GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-12 , showed that ΔGLOBE was associated with LT or death (adjusted HR 2.28, 95%CI 1.81-2.87, p <0.001). The interaction between baseline GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-1 was not statistically significant ( p =0.296). The ΔGLOBE 1-2 was associated with LT or death (adjusted HR 2.19, 95%CI 1.67-2.86, p<0.001), independently from the baseline GLOBE score and de change in GLOBE score during the first year of UDCA.

CONCLUSION

UDCA-induced changes in the GLOBE score were significantly associated with LT-free survival in patients with PBC. While the relative risk reduction of LT or death was stable, the absolute risk reduction was heavily dependent on the baseline prognosis of the patient.

Plasma fetal bile acids 7α-hydroxy-3-oxochol-4-en-24-oic acid and 3-oxachola-4,6-dien-24-oic acid indicate severity of liver cirrhosis

Two 3-oxo-Δ4 fetal bile acids, 3-oxachola-4,6-dien-24-oic acid (1) and 7α-hydroxy-3-oxochol-4-en-24-oic acid (2), occur normally in the human fetus but remain elevated in neonates and children with severe cholestatic liver disease due to an autosomal recessive inborn error of metabolism affecting Δ4-3-oxo-steroid 5β-reductase (AKR1D1). Relatively little is known about 1 and 2 in adult patients with liver disease. The chemical synthesis of 1 and 2 is therefore described and their quantitation in plasma by ultrarapid chromatography-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry. Plasma concentrations of 1 and 2 were investigated in 25 adult patients with varying degrees of liver cirrhosis with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Highly statistically significant correlations (P < 0.0001) were found between severity of liver cirrhosis, determined by the Child-Pugh and MELD scores, with plasma 1 and 2 concentrations, both alone and combined. The presence of HCC did not influence these correlations. Plasma cholic, chenodeoxycholic, deoxycholic, lithocholic or ursodeoxycholic acids, free and as their glycine or taurine conjugates, did not correlate with Child-Pugh or MELD score when corrected for multiple comparisons. These findings demonstrate that plasma levels of fetal bile acids 3-oxachola-4,6-dien-24-oic acid and 7α-hydroxy-3-oxochol-4-en-24-oic acid and likely deteriorating AKR1D1 activity indicate the severity of liver cirrhosis measured by the Child-Pugh and MELD scores.

Use of rapid Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) increases for liver transplant registrant prioritization after MELD-Na and Share 35, an evaluation using data from the United Network for Organ Sharing

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has been successfully used to prioritize patients on the United States liver transplant waiting list since its adoption in 2002. The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS)/Organ Procurement Transplantation Network (OPTN) allocation policy has evolved over the years, and notable recent changes include Share 35, inclusion of serum sodium in the MELD score, and a ‘delay and cap’ policy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. We explored the potential of a registrant’s change in 30-day MELD scores (ΔMELD₃₀) to improve allocation both before and after these policy changes. Current MELD and ΔMELD₃₀ were evaluated using cause-specific hazards models for waitlist dropout based on US liver transplant registrants added to the waitlist between 06/30/2003 and 6/30/2013. Two composite scores were constructed and then evaluated on UNOS data spanning the current policy era (01/02/2016 to 09/07/2018). Predictive accuracy was evaluated using the C-index for model discrimination and by comparing observed and predicted waitlist dropout probabilities for model calibration. After the change to MELD-Na, increased dropout associated with ΔMELD₃₀ jumps is no longer evident at MELD scores below 30. However, the adoption of Share 35 has potentially resulted in discrepancies in waitlist dropout for patients with sharp MELD increases at higher MELD scores. Use of the ΔMELD₃₀ to add additional points or serve as a potential tiebreaker for patients with rapid deterioration may extend the benefit of Share 35 to better include those in most critical need.

Development and validation of an optimized prediction of mortality for candidates awaiting liver transplantation

Since 2002, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been used to rank liver transplant candidates. However, despite numerous revisions, MELD allocation still does not allow for equitable access to all waitlisted candidates. An optimized prediction of mortality (OPOM) was developed (http://www.opom.online) utilizing machine-learning optimal classification tree models trained to predict a candidate's 3-month waitlist mortality or removal utilizing the Standard Transplant Analysis and Research (STAR) dataset. The Liver Simulated Allocation Model (LSAM) was then used to compare OPOM to MELD-based allocation. Out-of-sample area under the curve (AUC) was also calculated for candidate groups of increasing disease severity. OPOM allocation, when compared to MELD, reduced mortality on average by 417.96 (406.8-428.4) deaths every year in LSAM analysis. Improved survival was noted across all candidate demographics, diagnoses, and geographic regions. OPOM delivered a substantially higher AUC across all disease severity groups. OPOM more accurately and objectively prioritizes candidates for liver transplantation based on disease severity, allowing for more equitable allocation of livers with a resultant significant number of additional lives saved every year. These data demonstrate the potential of machine learning technology to help guide clinical practice, and potentially guide national policy.

Delta model for end-stage liver disease and delta clinical prognostic indicator as predictors of mortality in patients with viral acute liver failure

Objective:

The objective of the study is to compare the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) with clinical prognostic indicators (CPI) specifically the change in these parameters after 48 h of admission in predicting the mortality in patients with acute liver failure (ALF) due to acute viral hepatitis.

Materials and Methods:

An open label, investigator-initiated prospective study was conducted that included 41 patients with acute viral hepatitis with ALF. The cases were followed prospectively till death or discharge. The MELD and CPI were calculated at admission and 48 h of admission.

Results:

Patients having no change or worsening in CPI score, i.e., delta CPI more negative had a higher mortality over the next 48 h compared to patients having an improvement in their respective CPI score. Delta CPI predicted adverse outcome better than the presence of any three CPI on admission (P = 0.019). Patients having no change or a worsening in MELD score, i.e., delta MELD more negative, had a higher mortality in the next 48 h compared to the patients having improvement in their respective MELD score. However, MELD >33 on admission was superior to delta MELD in predicting the adverse outcome (P = 0.019).

Conclusion:

Among the patients with ALF due to viral hepatitis, delta CPI was found to be superior to delta MELD in predicting the adverse outcome in patients with viral ALF (P < 0.0001).

Factors associated with medication adherence in patients living with cirrhosis

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Medication adherence in people with cirrhosis is largely unknown. This study aims to determine adherence patterns and factors associated with adherence in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND

Prescribed medications are a pivotal component in the clinical management of cirrhosis with potential to retard disease progression and reduce complication risks. Medication adherence is necessary to optimise health outcomes. Understanding why medications are missed may help to develop strategies and inform nursing practice.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

METHODS

Participants (n = 29) diagnosed with cirrhosis attending a tertiary hospital consented to complete a self-reported survey. Demographic information, adherence to medications, patient knowledge and quality of life data were collected, collated, checked and analysed using SPSS version 21.

RESULTS

Less than half of the 28 patients who completed the adherence questionnaire (n = 13, 46%) reported that they had never missed medication. Being forgetful, being away from home and falling asleep contributed to nonadherence. Having less abdominal symptoms, less fatigue and increased emotional well-being were significantly associated with patients never missing medications.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge this is the first published study to describe adherent behaviour and the reasons medications are missed in this population. The percentage of nonadherent participants is of concern considering the potential morbidity risk that is associated with missed medications and rebound symptoms of cirrhosis. Strategies to improve and sustain adherence levels are required including enhanced adherence counselling offered to patients who are deteriorating or experience periodic exacerbation of symptoms.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

Study findings have the potential to change clinical practice especially the way nurses target motivational adherence counselling, key treatment messages, education and adherence monitoring. The results presented here provide a basis for developing adherence strategies and nursing management plans to improve adherence and health outcomes in people with cirrhosis.

Prognostic Value of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Measurements on a Daily Basis in Critically Ill Patients With Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether daily measurement of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score adds prognostic value to the initial MELD score in predicting mortality among patients with cirrhosis admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

We included 830 consecutive patients with cirrhosis admitted to a tertiary care ICU from January 1, 2003, through December 31, 2013, who had MELD scores on admission day 1 (MELD-D1). Daily MELD score during the first 7 days of ICU admission were retrospectively abstracted. The performances of MELD-D1 to MELD-D7 and changes in MELD score on consecutive days (Δ-MELD) in predicting 90-day mortality were determined using logistic regression.

RESULTS

MELD-D1 was an independent predictor of mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.10; P<.001), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.72. MELD-D2 to MELD-D7 yielded comparable performance to MELD-D1 with an approximately 10% increase in risk of death per each incremental unit of MELD score (odds ratios, 1.09-1.11; P<.001; AUCs, 0.68-0.72). Δ-MELD-D2 to Δ-MELD-D7 were not independently associated with mortality (P=.69, P=.42, P=.81, P=.94, P=.83 and P=.28, respectively) and did not increase the predictive performance (AUCs) when combined with MELD-D2 to MELD-D7.

CONCLUSION

Repeating MELD score assessment during the first 7 days after ICU admission does not improve the ability of the initial MELD score for predicting 90-day mortality among patients with cirrhosis. Our finding does not support the practice of routine daily measurement of the MELD score.

Model for end-stage liver disease: end of the first decade

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is the basis for allocation of liver allografts for transplantation in the United States. The MELD score, as an objective scale of disease severity, is also used in the management of patients with chronic liver disease in the nontransplant setting. Several models have been proposed to improve the MELD score. The authors believe that the MELD score is, by design, continually evolving and lends itself to continued refinement and improvement to serve as a metric to optimize organ allocation in the future.

[The application of MELD score in patients submitted to liver transplantation: a retrospective analysis of survival and the predictive factors in the short and long term]

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was developed to predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. There are few reports studying the correlation between MELD and long-term posttransplantation survival.

AIM

To assess the value of pretransplant MELD in the prediction of posttransplant survival.

METHODS

The adult patients (age >18 years) who underwent liver transplantation were examined in a retrospective longitudinal cohort of patients, through the prospective data base. We excluded acute liver failure, retransplantation and reduced or split-livers. The liver donors were evaluated according to: age, sex, weight, creatinine, bilirubin, sodium, aspartate aminotransferase, personal antecedents, brain death cause, steatosis, expanded criteria donor number and index donor risk. The recipients' data were: sex, age, weight, chronic hepatic disease, Child-Turcotte-Pugh points, pretransplant and initial MELD score, pretransplant creatinine clearance, sodium, cold and warm ischemia times, hospital length of stay, blood requirements, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT >1,000 UI/L = liver dysfunction). The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used for the univariable analyses of posttransplant patient survival. For the multivariable analyses the Cox proportional hazard regression method with the stepwise procedure was used with stratifying sodium and MELD as variables. ROC curve was used to define area under the curve for MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh.

RESULTS

A total of 232 patients with 10 years follow up were available. The MELD cutoff was 20 and Child-Turcotte-Pugh cutoff was 11.5. For MELD score > or =20, the risk factors for death were: red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. For the patients with hyponatremia the risk factors were: negative delta-MELD score, red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. The regression univariated analyses came up with the following risk factors for death: score MELD > or = 25, blood requirements, recipient creatinine clearance pretransplant and age donor > or =50. After stepwise analyses, only red cell requirement was predictive. Patients with MELD score < 25 had a 68.86%, 50,44% and 41,50% chance for 1, 5 and 10-year survival and > or =25 were 39.13%, 29.81% and 22.36% respectively. Patients without hyponatremia were 65.16%, 50.28% and 41,98% and with hyponatremia 44.44%, 34.28% and 28.57% respectively. Patients with IDR > or =1.7 showed 53.7%, 27.71% and 13.85% and index donor risk <1.7 was 63.62%, 51.4% and 44.08%, respectively. Age donor > 50 years showed 38.4%, 26.21% and 13.1% and age donor < or =50 years showed 65.58%, 26.21% and 13.1%. Association with delta-MELD score did not show any significant difference. Expanded criteria donors were associated with primary non-function and severe liver dysfunction. Predictive factors for death were blood requirements, hyponatremia, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion MELD over 25, recipient's hyponatremia, blood requirements, donor's sodium were associated with poor survival.