Is there an ideal prognostic classification for hepatocellular carcinoma? The quest for the Holy Grail

Development and validation of a risk score to predict the overall survival following surgical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma in non-cirrhotic liver

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk score to predict overall survival (OS) in patients undergoing surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma in non-cirrhotic liver (NC-HCC).

METHODS

Patients who underwent resection for NC-HCC between 2004 and 2013 were identified from the SEER database. A derivation set of 75% of this cohort was used to develop a risk score. This was then internally validated on the remaining patients, and externally validated using a cohort of patients from The HPB Unit, Birmingham, UK.

RESULTS

A total of 3897 patients were included from the SEER database, with a median post-diagnosis survival of 59 months. In the derivation set, multivariable analyses identified male sex, increasing tumour size, the presence of multiple tumours, bilobar tumours and major vascular invasion as adverse prognostic factors. A risk score generated from these factors was significantly predictive of OS, and was used to classify patients into low, medium and high-risk groups. These groups had a five-year OS of 69%, 51% and 19% in the internal, and 73%, 50% and 45% in the external validation sets.

CONCLUSION

The proposed risk score is useful in the selection, pre-operative consenting and counselling of patients for surgery and to allow patients to make an informed decision regarding treatment.

NIACE score refines the overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma by Barcelona clinic liver cancer staging

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The NIACE score provides prognostic values for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in European studies. We aim to evaluate the prognostic value of the NIACE score in Asian patients.

METHODS

Patients with HCC were retrospectively enrolled from a tertiary medical center in Taiwan during 2009-2014, and their clinical information were collected. The NIACE score was calculated according to the Nodular numbers, tumor Infiltration, Alpha-fetoprotein level, Child-Pugh score, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score. The prognostic values of NIACE score for overall survival according to individual treatment and the Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) staging were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 468 patients were included with a median follow-up of 30 months. A greater NIACE score correlated with lower median survival and higher BCLC staging. Regardless of treatment modalities, NIACE scores (0, 1-1.5, 2.5-3, and 4-7) significantly predicted survival between groups (log-rank P < 0.001). Specifically, NIACE score (0, 1-1.5, 2.5-3, and 4-7) significantly predicted survival in patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization (log-rank P < 0.001). NIACE score 1, 2.5, and 4 further distinguished overall survival in BCLC A, B, and C patients, respectively (all log-rank P < 0.01). After adjustment of the confounders and the BCLC staging, NIACE score of 2.5-3 and 4-7 (vs 0) had a significantly increased risk of mortality with a hazard ratio of 4.04 (95% confidence interval: 2.14-7.64, P < 0.001) and 7.45 (95% confidence interval: 3.22-17.23, P < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The NIACE score helps refine differential prognosis among BCLC A, B, and C subgroups of Asian patients with HCC, especially in those receiving transarterial chemoembolization.

Evaluation of survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A comparative analysis of prognostic systems

BACKGROUND AND AIM

There are several prognostic systems that address different aspects of the patient and the tumour and can guide the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to evaluate and compare the eight staging systems for a group of patients in a public service in Brazil.

METHODS

Patients with HCC were retrospectively analysed between 2000 and 2012. The prognostic systems Okuda, The Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), the Chinese University Prognostic Index (CUPI), Groupe d'Etude et de Traitément du Carcinome Hepatocellulaire (GRETCH), the modified TNM-based Japan Integrated Score (JIS) combined with alpha-fetoprotein and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), the TNM system, and the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Classification (BCLC) were applied to these patients and compared through model fit measurements, likelihood scores, and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).

RESULTS

A total of 247 patients were studied. The average survival time was 60 months. The TNM, Okuda, CLIP, GRETCH, modified JIS, and BCLC systems were well correlated with one another and individually important to the prediction of survival among the patients studied. However, in the statistical analysis, the CUPI delivered the best predictive performance (AIC = 566; log-likelihood = -281,240).

CONCLUSION

Although the CUPI system was demonstrated to be the most appropriate HCC staging system for the studied population, the choice of an ideal system is a controversial subject, and future studies with larger numbers of patients are necessary for the validation of the CUPI system as the method of choice for other populations.

Hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma larger than 10 cm: preoperative risk stratification to prevent futile surgery

OBJECTIVES

Appropriate patient selection is important to achieving good outcomes and obviating futile surgery in patients with huge (≥10 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to identify independent predictors of futile outcomes, defined as death within 3 months of surgery or within 1 year from early recurrence following hepatectomy for huge HCC.

METHODS

The outcomes of 149 patients with huge HCCs who underwent resection during 1995-2012 were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify preoperative independent predictors of futility.

RESULTS

Independent predictors of 3-month mortality (18.1%) were: total bilirubin level >34 μmol/l [P = 0.0443; odds ratio (OR) 16.470]; platelet count of <150 000 cells/ml (P = 0.0098; OR 5.039), and the presence of portal vein tumour thrombosis (P = 0.0041; OR 5.138). The last of these was the sole independent predictor of 1-year recurrence-related mortality (17.2%). Rates of recurrence-related mortality at 3 months and 1 year were, respectively, 6.3% and 7.1% in patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A disease, 12.5% and 14% in patients with BCLC stage B disease, and 37.8% (P = 0.0002) and 75% (P = 0.0002) in patients with BCLC stage C disease.

CONCLUSIONS

According to the present data, among patients submitted to hepatectomy for huge HCC, those with a high bilirubin level, low platelet count and portal vein thrombosis are at higher risk for futile surgery. The presence of portal vein tumour thrombosis should be regarded as a relative contraindication to surgery.

Comparative study of staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma in 428 patients treated with radioembolization

PURPOSE

To compare the utility of different staging systems and analyze independent predictors of survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with yttrium-90 ((90)Y) radioembolization.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

During the period 2004-2011, 428 patients with HCC were treated with (90)Y radioembolization. All patients were staged prospectively by the following staging systems: Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), United Network for Organ Sharing, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), Okuda classification, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), Groupe d'Etude et de Traitement du Carcinome Hepatocellulaire, Chinese University Prognostic Index, and Japan Integrated Staging. The ability of the staging systems to predict survival was assessed. The staging systems were compared using Cox proportional hazards regression model, linear regression, Akaike information criterion (AIC), and concordance index (C-index). Univariate and multivariate analyses were employed to assess independent predictors of survival.

RESULTS

When tested independently, all staging systems exhibited significant ability to discriminate early (long survival) from advanced (worse survival) disease. CLIP provided the most accurate information in predicting survival outcomes (AIC = 2,993, C-index = 0.8503); CTP was least informative (AIC = 3,074, C-index = 0.6445). Independent predictors of survival included Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status grade 0 (hazard ration [HR], 0.56; confidence interval [CI], 0.34-0.93), noninfiltrative tumors (HR, 0.62; CI, 0.44-0.89), absence of portal venous thrombosis (HR, 0.60; CI, 0.40-0.89), absence of ascites (HR, 0.56; CI, 0.40-0.76), albumin ≥ 2.8 g/dL (HR, 0.72; CI, 0.55-0.94), alkaline phosphatase ≤ 200 U/L (HR, 0.68; CI, 0.50-0.92), and α-fetoprotein ≤ 200 ng/mL (HR, 0.67; CI, 0.51-0.86).

CONCLUSIONS

CLIP was most accurate in predicting survival in patients with HCC. Given that not all patients receive the recommended BCLC treatment strategy, this information is relevant for clinical trial design and predicting long-term outcomes after (90)Y radioembolization.

Evaluation of midkine as a diagnostic serum biomarker in hepatocellular carcinoma

PURPOSE

To evaluate the value of serum midkine (MDK) as a diagnostic biomarker in hepatocellular carcinoma, particularly for those with negative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and at an early stage.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

MDK expression in tumors was assessed by immunohistochemistry from 105 patients with hepatocellular carcinomas or liver cirrhosis. Serum MDK levels were detected by ELISA in 933 participants including hepatocellular carcinomas and hospital controls from different medical centers. Sensitivities and specificities of serum MDK in diagnosing hepatocellular carcinoma according to AFP level and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage were analyzed.

RESULTS

MDK levels were significantly elevated in hepatocellular carcinoma tissues as well as serum samples. The sensitivity of serum MDK for hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis was much higher than that of AFP (86.9% vs. 51.9%) with similar specificities (83.9% vs. 86.3%). Notably, serum MDK had an outstanding performance in distinguishing AFP-negative hepatocellular carcinomas from different controls: In those AFP-negative hepatocellular carcinomas, the sensitivity could reach as high as 89.2%. Moreover, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis also showed that serum MDK had a better performance compared with AFP in distinguishing early-stage hepatocellular carcinomas as well as small hepatocellular carcinomas. Even in very early-stage hepatocellular carcinomas, MDK showed an obviously higher sensitivity compared with AFP (80% vs. 40%). Furthermore, serum MDK level was significantly decreased in patients with hepatocellular carcinomas after curative resection and re-elevated when tumor relapse occurred.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum MDK is significantly elevated in most hepatocellular carcinomas, including those with negative AFP and at an early stage, which may serve as a novel diagnostic marker in early diagnosis and postoperative monitoring of hepatocellular carcinomas.