Reply to: "External validation of aMAP risk score in patients with chronic hepatitis C genotype 4 and cirrhosis who achieved SVR following DAAs"

Combining the age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets score and shear wave elastography stratifies carcinogenic risk in hepatitis C patients after viral clearance

BACKGROUND

The treatment of hepatitis C with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) produces a high rate of sustained virological response (SVR) with fewer adverse events than interferon (IFN) therapy with a similar effect in inhibiting carcinogenesis as IFN therapy. The age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets (aMAP) score is useful for stratifying the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis patients, and the velocity of shear waves (Vs) measured by shear wave elastography has also been shown to be useful for diagnosing the level of fibrotic progression in hepatitis C and predicting carcinogenic risk. Combining these two may improve the prediction of carcinogenic risk.

AIM

To determine whether combining the aMAP score with Vs improves carcinogenic risk stratification in medium-to-high-risk hepatitis C patients.

METHODS

This retrospective, observational study involved hepatitis C patients treated with DAAs who achieved SVR. Vs was measured before treatment (baseline), at the end of treatment (EOT), and 12 wk (follow-up 12) and 24 wk (follow-up 24) after treatment. The patients were followed for at least six months after EOT to determine whether cancer developed. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify factors contributing to hepatic carcinogenesis. The diagnostic performances of clinical parameters for predicting the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma were evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 279 patients (mean age 65.9 years, 118 males, 161 females) were included in the analysis. Multiple regression analysis was performed with carcinogenesis as the target variable and alanine aminotransferase, platelets, α-fetoprotein, Vs, and the Fib-4 index as explanatory variables; only Vs was found to be significant (P = 0.0296). The cut-off value for Vs for liver carcinogenesis calculated using the ROC curve was 1.53 m/s. Carcinoma developed in 2.0% (3/151) of those with Vs < 1.53 m/s and in 10.5% (9/86) of those with Vs ≥ 1.53 m/s.

CONCLUSION

In hepatitis C patients after SVR, combining the aMAP score and Vs to stratify the risk of carcinogenesis is more efficient than uniform surveillance of all patients.

Predictive performance and clinical utility of HCC risk scores in chronic hepatitis C: a comparative study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Many HCC risk prediction scores were developed to guide HCC risk stratification and identify CHC patients who either need intensified surveillance or may not require screening. There is a need to compare different scores and their predictive performance in clinical practice. We aim to compare the newest HCC risk scores evaluating their discriminative ability, and clinical utility in a large cohort of CHC patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The performance of the scores was evaluated in 3075 CHC patients who achieved SVR following DAAs using Log rank, Harrell's c statistic, also tested for HCC-risk stratification and negative predictive values.

RESULTS

HCC developed in 212 patients within 5 years follow-up. Twelve HCC risk scores were identified and displayed significant Log rank (p ≤ 0.05) except Alonso-Lopez TE-HCC, and Chun scores (p = 0.374, p = 0.053, respectively). Analysis of the remaining ten scores revealed that ADRES, GES pre-post treatment, GES algorithm and Watanabe (post-treatment) scores including dynamics of AFP, were clinically applicable and demonstrated good statistical performance; Log rank analysis < 0.001, Harrell's C statistic (0.66-0.83) and high negative predictive values (94.38-97.65%). In these three scores, the 5 years cumulative IR in low risk groups be very low (0.54-1.6), so screening could be avoided safely in these patients.

CONCLUSION

ADRES, GES (pre- and post-treatment), GES algorithm and Watanabe (post-treatment) scores seem to offer acceptable HCC-risk predictability and clinical utility in CHC patients. The dynamics of AFP as a component of these scores may explain their high performance when compared to other scores.