AFP-L3 and DCP strongly predict early hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation

New predictors of microvascular invasion for small hepatocellular carcinoma ≤ 3 cm

BACKGROUND

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is a risk factor for postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even in early-stage HCC. In small HCC ≤ 3 cm, treatment options include anatomical resection or non-anatomical resection, and MVI has a major effect on treatment decisions. We aimed to identify the predictors of MVI in small HCC ≤ 3 cm.

METHODS

We retrospectively studied 129 patients with very early or early-stage HCC ≤ 3 cm who had undergone 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography and subsequent hepatic resection from January 2016 to August 2023. These patients were divided into the derivation cohort (n = 86) and validation cohort (n = 43). We examined the risk factors for MVI using logistic regression analysis, and established a predictive scoring system in the derivation cohort. We evaluated the accuracy of our scoring system in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort, a Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP-L3), prothrombin induced by vitamin K deficiency or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II), and metabolic tumor volume (MTV) were independent predictors of MVI. We established the scoring system using these three factors. In the validation test, there were no MVI-positive cases with a score of 0 and 1, and all cases were MVI-positive with a score of 4. Moreover, with a score ≥ 2, the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of our scoring system were 100%, 71.4%, and 81.4%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our scoring system can accurately predict MVI in small HCC ≤ 3 cm, and could contribute to establishing an appropriate treatment strategy.

Research progress of protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common pathologic type of primary liver cancer. Liver transplantation (LT) is a radical strategy for treating patients with early-stage HCC, which may lead to a better prognosis compared to hepatectomy and ablation. However, survival of patients who develop HCC recurrence after LT is short, and early recurrence is the most common cause of death. Thus, efficient biomarkers are also needed in LT to guide precision therapy to improve patient prognosis and 5-year survival. Protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II (PIVKA-II) is an abnormal prothrombin that cannot activate coagulation, and it is significantly increased in patients with HCC, obstructive jaundice, and those taking vitamin K antagonists. Over the past decades, substantial progress has been made in the study of PIVKA-II in diagnosing, surveilling, and treating HCC, but its role in LT still needs to be elaborated. In this review, we focused on the role of PIVKA-II as a biomarker in LT for HCC, especially its relationship with clinicopathologic features, early recurrence, long-term survival, and donor-recipient selection.

DGPRI, a new liver fibrosis assessment index, predicts recurrence of AFP-negative hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatic resection: a single-center retrospective study

Although patients with alpha-fetoprotein-negative hepatocellular carcinoma (AFPNHCC) have a favorable prognosis, a high risk of postoperative recurrence remains. We developed and validated a novel liver fibrosis assessment index, the direct bilirubin-gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio (DGPRI). DGPRI was calculated for each of the 378 patients with AFPNHCC who underwent hepatic resection. The patients were divided into high- and low-score groups using the optimal cutoff value. The Lasso-Cox method was used to identify the characteristics of postoperative recurrence, followed by multivariate Cox regression analysis to determine the independent risk factors associated with recurrence. A nomogram model incorporating the DGPRI was developed and validated. High DGPRI was identified as an independent risk factor (hazard ratio = 2.086) for postoperative recurrence in patients with AFPNHCC. DGPRI exhibited better predictive ability for recurrence 1-5 years after surgery than direct bilirubin and the gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio. The DGPRI-nomogram model demonstrated good predictive ability, with a C-index of 0.674 (95% CI 0.621-0.727). The calibration curves and clinical decision analysis demonstrated its clinical utility. The DGPRI nomogram model performed better than the TNM and BCLC staging systems for predicting recurrence-free survival. DGPRI is a novel and effective predictor of postoperative recurrence in patients with AFPNHCC and provides a superior assessment of preoperative liver fibrosis.

GALAD score as a prognostic model for recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after local ablation

BACKGROUND

Currently, the high recurrence rate still forms severe challenges in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment. The GALAD score, including age, gender, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive AFP (AFP-L3), and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) was developed as a diagnostic model. However, evidence is still lacking to confirm the capability of the GALAD score to predict the recurrence of HCC.

METHODS

This study included 390 HCC patients after local ablation at Beijing You'an Hospital from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2022. Firstly, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was calculated to assess the predictive capability of the GALAD score. Then, the Kaplan-Meier (KM) curve and log-rank test were used to compare the prognosis between two groups classified by GALAD score. Finally, a nomogram for high-risk patients was established by Lasso-Cox regression. It was assessed by ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The ROC curve (AUC: 0.749) and KM curve showed the GALAD score had good predictive ability and could clearly stratify patients into two groups through the risk of recurrence. Prognostic factors selected by Lasso-Cox regression contained tumor number, tumor size, and globulin. The nomogram for high-risk patients showed reliable discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.

CONCLUSION

This research displayed that the GALAD score is an effective model for predicting the recurrence of HCC. Meanwhile, we found the poor prognosis of the high-risk group and created a nomogram for these patients.

Alpha-fetoprotein: Past, present, and future

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a glycoprotein that plays an important role in immune regulation with critical involvement in early human development and maintaining the immune balance during pregnancy. Postfetal development, the regulatory mechanisms controlling AFP undergo a shift and AFP gene transcription is suppressed. Instead, these enhancers refocus their activity to maintain albumin gene transcription throughout adulthood. During the postnatal period, AFP expression can increase in the setting of hepatocyte injury, regeneration, and malignant transformation. It is the first oncoprotein discovered and is routinely used as part of a screening strategy for HCC. AFP has been shown to be a powerful prognostic biomarker, and multiple HCC prognosis models confirmed the independent prognostic utility of AFP. AFP is also a useful predictive biomarker for monitoring the treatment response of HCC. In addition to its role as a biomarker, AFP plays important roles in immune modulation to promote tumorigenesis and thus has been investigated as a therapeutic target in HCC. In this review article, we aim to provide an overview of AFP, encompassing the discovery, biological role, and utility as an HCC biomarker in combination with other biomarkers and how it impacts clinical practice and future direction.

Unleashing the potential of gene signatures as prognostic and predictive tools: A step closer to personalized medicine in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the growing malignancies globally, affecting a myriad of people and causing numerous cancer-related deaths. Despite therapeutic improvements in treatment strategies over the past decades, HCC still remains one of the leading causes of person-years of life lost. Numerous studies have been conducted to assess the characteristics of HCC with the aim of predicting its prognosis and responsiveness to treatment. However, the identified biomarkers have shown limited sensitivity, and the translation of these findings into clinical practice has faced challenges. The development of sequencing techniques has facilitated the exploration of a wide range of genes, leading to the emergence of gene signatures. Although several studies assessed differentially expressed genes in normal and HCC tissues to find the unique gene signature with prognostic value, to date, no study has reviewed the task, and to the best of our knowledge, this review represents the first comprehensive analysis of relevant studies in HCC. Most gene signatures focused on immune-related genes, while others investigated genes related to metabolism, autophagy, and apoptosis. Even though no identical gene signatures were found, NDRG1, SPP1, BIRC5, and NR0B1 were the most extensively studied genes with prognostic value. Finally, despite challenges such as the lack of consistent patterns in gene signatures, we believe that comprehensive analysis of pertinent gene signatures will bring us a step closer to personalized medicine in HCC, where treatment strategies can be tailored to individual patients based on their unique molecular profiles.

The Role of PIVKA-II as a Predictor of Early Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence-Free Survival after Liver Transplantation in a Low Alpha-Fetoprotein Population

INTRODUCTION

AFP and the RETREAT score are currently used to predict HCC recurrence after LT. However, superior discriminating models are needed for low AFP populations. The aim of this study is to investigate the predictive value of PIVKA-II on recurrence-free survival after LT in a low AFP population and microvascular invasion on explant.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study including all consecutive patients transplanted for HCC between 1989 and 2019 in the Erasmus MC University Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was used. AFP and PIVKA-II levels were determined in serum samples collected at the time of transplantation. Data on tumor load and microvascular invasion were retrieved from patients' records.

RESULTS

The study cohort consisted of 121 patients, with HCC recurrence in 15 patients (12.4%). The median AFP was 7.7 ng/mL (4.4-20.2), and the median PIVKA-II was 72.0 mAU/mL (41.0-213.5). Patients with low AFP (≤8 ng/mL) and PIVKA-II (≤90 mAU/mL) had a 5-year recurrence-free survival of 100% compared to 85.7% in patients with low AFP and high PIVKA-II (p = 0.026). Regardless of the AFP level, patients within the Milan criteria (based on explant pathology) with a low PIVKA-II level had a 5-year recurrence-free survival of 100% compared to patients with a high PIVKA-II level of 81.1% (p = 0.002). In patients with microvascular invasion, the AUC for PIVKA-II was slightly better than the AUC for AFP (0.775 vs. 0.687).

CONCLUSIONS

The dual model of PIVKA-II ≤ 90 mAU/mL with either AFP ≤ 8 ng/mL or with patients within the Milan criteria identifies patient groups which can be exempted from HCC surveillance after LT in a low AFP population. PIVKA-II may be a better predictor for explant microvascular invasion than AFP and could play a role in future models identifying LT candidates with the highest risk for HCC recurrence.