Risk of Intensive Care Unit admission or mortality in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 during the first two waves: An Italian cohort study

Evolution of in-hospital patient characteristics and predictors of death in the COVID-19 pandemic across four waves: are they moving targets with implications for patient care?

Objectives

The aim of this work was to study characteristics, outcomes and predictors of all-cause death in inpatients with SARS-CoV-2 infection across the pandemic waves in one large teaching hospital in Italy to optimize disease management.

Methods

All patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to our center from March 2020 to June 2022 were included in this retrospective observational cohort study. Both descriptive and regression tree analyses were applied to identify factors influencing all-cause mortality.

Results

527 patients were included in the study (65.3% with moderate and 34.7% with severe COVID-19). Significant evolutions of patient characteristics were found, and mortality increased in the last wave with respect to the third wave notwithstanding vaccination. Regression tree analysis showed that in-patients with severe COVID-19 had the greatest mortality across all waves, especially the older adults, while prognosis depended on the pandemic waves in patients with moderate COVID-19: during the first wave, dyspnea was the main predictor, while chronic kidney disease emerged as determinant factor afterwards.

Conclusion

Patients with severe COVID-19, especially the older adults during all waves, as well as those with moderate COVID-19 and concomitant chronic kidney disease during the most recent waves require more attention for monitoring and care. Therefore, our study drives attention towards the importance of co-morbidities and their clinical impact in patients with COVID-19 admitted to hospital, indicating that the healthcare system should adapt to the evolving features of the epidemic.

Evaluation of risk scores as predictors of mortality and hospital length of stay for older COVID-19 patients

Objective

This study was intended to research the sensitivity of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), COVID-GRAM, and MuLBSTA risk scores for hospital length of stay (LOS) and mortality in older patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Methods

A total of 217 patients (119 women) were included in the study. The first clinical signs, comorbidities, laboratory and radiology findings, and hospital LOS were recorded for each patient. The CCI, COVID-GRAM, and MuLBSTA risk scores were calculated, and their sensitivities for hospital LOS and mortality were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results

Of the hospitalized patients, 59 (27.2%) were followed in the intensive care unit, and mortality developed in 44 (20.3%). The CCI positively correlated with COVID-GRAM and MuLBSTA scores (P < 0.001). COVID-GRAM and MuLBSTA results correlated with LOS and mortality (P < 0.001). According to the ROC curve analysis, the cutoff points for mortality were 5 for CCI, 169 for COVID-GRAM, and 9 for MuLBSTA.

Conclusion

Older patients with comorbidities are the major risk group for severe COVID-19. COVID-GRAM and MuLBSTA scores appear to be sensitive and reliable mortality indicators for these patients.

Acute and chronic kidney disease and risk of hospital mortality during COVID-19 pandemic waves in the pre-vaccination era

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a risk factor for death from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and COVID-19 may cause acute kidney injury (AKI) which also influences outcomes. There is little information on the independent contribution of CKD and AKI to the risk of death in COVID-19 on different waves, as CKD is a key risk factor for AKI.

Methods

We have studied the epidemiology of CKD and AKI in 2878 patients hospitalized for COVID-19 and their independent association with in-hospital mortality in the two largest pre-vaccination COVID-19 waves in Madrid, Spain. Hospitalized COVID-19 patients were grouped into four mutually exclusive categories: previous-CKD, community-acquired AKI (CA-AKI), hospital-acquired AKI (HA-AKI) and normal renal function throughout hospitalization.

Results

Pre-existent or acquired kidney involvement was observed in 35.5% and 36.8% of COVID-19 patients in the 1st and 3rd waves, respectively. Overall, 13.9% of patients with normal kidney function on arrival developed HA-AKI. In the 3rd wave, CA-AKI was more common than in the 1st wave. Overall, 9%-20% of CKD cases and 22%-40% of AKI cases remained undiagnosed in the discharge report. CKD, CA-AKI and HA-AKI were independently associated with risk of death in multivariate analysis, with HA-AKI, which was usually mild, being the most relevant independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality. A model including kidney involvement category, age, Charlson index, admission lactate dehydrogenase and lymphocytes predicted death with a receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.898.

Conclusion

In conclusion, CKD and AKI were common in pre-vaccination waves among hospitalized COVID-19 patients and were independent risk factors for death, even when AKI was mild to moderate, and despite improvements in treatment.