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Trecarichi EM, Olivadese V, Davoli C, Rotundo S, Serapide F, Lionello R, Tassone B, La Gamba V, Fusco P, Russo A, Borelli M, Torti C. Evolution of in-hospital patient characteristics and predictors of death in the COVID-19 pandemic across four waves: are they moving targets with implications for patient care? Front Public Health 2024; 11:1280835. [PMID: 38249374 PMCID: PMC10800172 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1280835] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2023] [Accepted: 12/20/2023] [Indexed: 01/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Objectives The aim of this work was to study characteristics, outcomes and predictors of all-cause death in inpatients with SARS-CoV-2 infection across the pandemic waves in one large teaching hospital in Italy to optimize disease management. Methods All patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to our center from March 2020 to June 2022 were included in this retrospective observational cohort study. Both descriptive and regression tree analyses were applied to identify factors influencing all-cause mortality. Results 527 patients were included in the study (65.3% with moderate and 34.7% with severe COVID-19). Significant evolutions of patient characteristics were found, and mortality increased in the last wave with respect to the third wave notwithstanding vaccination. Regression tree analysis showed that in-patients with severe COVID-19 had the greatest mortality across all waves, especially the older adults, while prognosis depended on the pandemic waves in patients with moderate COVID-19: during the first wave, dyspnea was the main predictor, while chronic kidney disease emerged as determinant factor afterwards. Conclusion Patients with severe COVID-19, especially the older adults during all waves, as well as those with moderate COVID-19 and concomitant chronic kidney disease during the most recent waves require more attention for monitoring and care. Therefore, our study drives attention towards the importance of co-morbidities and their clinical impact in patients with COVID-19 admitted to hospital, indicating that the healthcare system should adapt to the evolving features of the epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Enrico Maria Trecarichi
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, “Magna Graecia” University, Catanzaro, Italy
- Infectious and Tropical Disease Unit, “Renato Dulbecco” Teaching Hospital, Catanzaro, Italy
| | - Vincenzo Olivadese
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, “Magna Graecia” University, Catanzaro, Italy
| | - Chiara Davoli
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, “Magna Graecia” University, Catanzaro, Italy
- Infectious and Tropical Disease Unit, “Renato Dulbecco” Teaching Hospital, Catanzaro, Italy
| | - Salvatore Rotundo
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, “Magna Graecia” University, Catanzaro, Italy
| | - Francesca Serapide
- Infectious and Tropical Disease Unit, “Renato Dulbecco” Teaching Hospital, Catanzaro, Italy
| | - Rosaria Lionello
- Infectious and Tropical Disease Unit, “Renato Dulbecco” Teaching Hospital, Catanzaro, Italy
| | - Bruno Tassone
- Infectious and Tropical Disease Unit, “Renato Dulbecco” Teaching Hospital, Catanzaro, Italy
| | - Valentina La Gamba
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, “Magna Graecia” University, Catanzaro, Italy
- Infectious and Tropical Disease Unit, “Renato Dulbecco” Teaching Hospital, Catanzaro, Italy
| | - Paolo Fusco
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, “Magna Graecia” University, Catanzaro, Italy
- Infectious and Tropical Disease Unit, “Renato Dulbecco” Teaching Hospital, Catanzaro, Italy
| | - Alessandro Russo
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, “Magna Graecia” University, Catanzaro, Italy
- Infectious and Tropical Disease Unit, “Renato Dulbecco” Teaching Hospital, Catanzaro, Italy
| | - Massimo Borelli
- UMG School of PhD Programmes "Life Sciences and Technologies", “Magna Graecia” University, Catanzaro, Italy
| | - Carlo Torti
- Dipartimento di Scienze di Laboratorio e Infettivologiche, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario “A. Gemelli” IRCCS, Rome, Italy
- Dipartimento di Sicurezza e Bioetica, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Rome, Italy
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Torti C, Olimpieri PP, Bonfanti P, Tascini C, Celant S, Tacconi D, Nicastri E, Tacconelli E, Cacopardo B, Perrella A, Buccoliero GB, Parruti G, Bassetti M, Biagetti C, Giacometti A, Erne EM, Frontuto M, Lanzafame M, Summa V, Spagnoli A, Vestri A, Di Perri G, Russo P, Palù G. Real-life comparison of mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at risk for clinical progression treated with molnupiravir or nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir during the Omicron era in Italy: a nationwide, cohort study. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. EUROPE 2023; 31:100684. [PMID: 37547273 PMCID: PMC10398591 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100684] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2023] [Revised: 06/28/2023] [Accepted: 06/29/2023] [Indexed: 08/08/2023]
Abstract
Background Comparative data on mortality in COVID-19 patients treated with molnupiravir or with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir are inconclusive. We therefore compared all-cause mortality in community-dwelling COVID-19 patients treated with these drugs during the Omicron era. Methods Data collected in the nationwide, population-based, cohort of patients registered in the database of the Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA) were used. To increase completeness of the recorded deaths and date correctness, a cross-check with the National Death Registry provided by the Ministry of the Interior was performed. We included in this study all patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 treated within 5 days after the test date and symptom onset between February 8 and April 30, 2022. All-cause mortalities by day 28 were compared between the two treatment groups after balancing for baseline characteristics using weights obtained from a gradient boosting machine algorithm. Findings In the considered timeframe, 17,977 patients treated with molnupiravir and 11,576 patients with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir were included in the analysis. Most patients (25,617/29,553 = 86.7%) received a full vaccine course including the booster dose. A higher crude incidence rate of all-cause mortality was found among molnupiravir users (51.83 per 100,000 person-days), compared to nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir users (22.29 per 100,000 person-days). However, molnupiravir-treated patients were older than those treated with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir and differences between the two populations were found as far as types of co-morbidities were concerned. For this reason, we compared the weight-adjusted cumulative incidences using the Aalen estimator and found that the adjusted cumulative incidence rates were 1.23% (95% CI 1.07%-1.38%) for molnupiravir-treated and 0.78% (95% CI 0.58%-0.98%) for nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir-treated patients (adjusted log rank p = 0.0002). Moreover, the weight-adjusted mixed-effect Cox model including Italian regions and NHS centers as random effects and treatment as the only covariate confirmed a significant reduced risk of death in patients treated with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir. Lastly, a significant reduction in the risk of death associated with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir was confirmed in patient subgroups, such as in females, fully vaccinated patients, those treated within day 2 since symptom onset and patients without (haemato)-oncological diseases. Interpretation Early initiation of nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir was associated for the first time with a significantly reduced risk of all-cause mortality by day 28 compared to molnupiravir, both in the overall population and in patient subgroups, including those fully vaccinated with the booster dose. Funding This study did not receive funding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlo Torti
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, “Magna Graecia” University, Catanzaro, Italy
| | - Pier Paolo Olimpieri
- Italian Medicines Agency, Via del Tritone 181, 00187 Rome, Italy
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Paolo Bonfanti
- Fondazione IRCCS San Gerardo dei Tintori, University of Milano-Bicocca, Monza, Italy
| | - Carlo Tascini
- Department of Medicine (DAME), Infectious Diseases Clinic, Udine University Hospital, Udine, Italy
| | - Simone Celant
- Italian Medicines Agency, Via del Tritone 181, 00187 Rome, Italy
| | - Danilo Tacconi
- Department of Specialised and Internal Medicine, Infectious Diseases Unit, San Donato Hospital, Arezzo, Italy
| | - Emanuele Nicastri
- National Institute for Infectious Disease Lazzaron Spallanzani, IRCCS, Via Portuense 292, 00149, Rome, Italy
| | - Evelina Tacconelli
- Infectious Diseases, Department of Diagnostic and Public Health, University of Verona, 37129 Verona, Italy
| | - Bruno Cacopardo
- Department of Internal and Experimental Medicine, University of Catania School of Medicine, Catania, Italy
| | - Alessandro Perrella
- Division Emerging Infectious Disease and High Contagiousness, D. Cotugno Hospital, 80131 Naples, Italy
| | | | - Giustino Parruti
- Department of Medicine, Infectious Disease Unit, Pescara General Hospital, Pescara, Italy
| | - Matteo Bassetti
- Department of Health Sciences (DISSAL), University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy
- Infectious Diseases Unit, Policlinico San Martino Hospital—IRCCS, Genoa, Italy
| | - Carlo Biagetti
- Unit of Infectious disease Infermi Hospital, AUSL Romagna, Rimini, Italy
| | - Andrea Giacometti
- Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria, Ospedali Riuniti di Ancona, Ancona, Italy
| | - Elke Maria Erne
- Department of Infectious Disease, Azienda Sanitaria dell’Alto Adige, Central Hospital of Bolzano, Italy
| | - Maria Frontuto
- Infectious Diseases Unit, A.O.R. San Carlo, Potenza, Italy
| | | | - Valentina Summa
- Italian Medicines Agency, Via del Tritone 181, 00187 Rome, Italy
| | - Alessandra Spagnoli
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Annarita Vestri
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Giovanni Di Perri
- Department of Medical Sciences at the Unit of Infectious Diseases, University of Torino, Amedeo di Savoia Hospital, Torino, Italy
| | - Pierluigi Russo
- Italian Medicines Agency, Via del Tritone 181, 00187 Rome, Italy
| | - Giorgio Palù
- Italian Medicines Agency, Via del Tritone 181, 00187 Rome, Italy
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Huang AA, Huang SY. Dendrogram of transparent feature importance machine learning statistics to classify associations for heart failure: A reanalysis of a retrospective cohort study of the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0288819. [PMID: 37471315 PMCID: PMC10358877 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288819] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2023] [Accepted: 07/04/2023] [Indexed: 07/22/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is a continual push for developing accurate predictors for Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admitted heart failure (HF) patients and in-hospital mortality. OBJECTIVE The study aimed to utilize transparent machine learning and create hierarchical clustering of key predictors based off of model importance statistics gain, cover, and frequency. METHODS Inclusion criteria of complete patient information for in-hospital mortality in the ICU with HF from the MIMIC-III database were randomly divided into a training (n = 941, 80%) and test (n = 235, 20%). A grid search was set to find hyperparameters. Machine Learning with XGBoost were used to predict mortality followed by feature importance with Shapely Additive Explanations (SHAP) and hierarchical clustering of model metrics with a dendrogram and heat map. RESULTS Of the 1,176 heart failure ICU patients that met inclusion criteria for the study, 558 (47.5%) were males. The mean age was 74.05 (SD = 12.85). XGBoost model had an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.662. The highest overall SHAP explanations were urine output, leukocytes, bicarbonate, and platelets. Average urine output was 1899.28 (SD = 1272.36) mL/day with the hospital mortality group having 1345.97 (SD = 1136.58) mL/day and the group without hospital mortality having 1986.91 (SD = 1271.16) mL/day. The average leukocyte count in the cohort was 10.72 (SD = 5.23) cells per microliter. For the hospital mortality group the leukocyte count was 13.47 (SD = 7.42) cells per microliter and for the group without hospital mortality the leukocyte count was 10.28 (SD = 4.66) cells per microliter. The average bicarbonate value was 26.91 (SD = 5.17) mEq/L. Amongst the group with hospital mortality the average bicarbonate value was 24.00 (SD = 5.42) mEq/L. Amongst the group without hospital mortality the average bicarbonate value was 27.37 (SD = 4.98) mEq/L. The average platelet value was 241.52 platelets per microliter. For the group with hospital mortality the average platelet value was 216.21 platelets per microliter. For the group without hospital mortality the average platelet value was 245.47 platelets per microliter. Cluster 1 of the dendrogram grouped the temperature, platelets, urine output, Saturation of partial pressure of Oxygen (SPO2), Leukocyte count, lymphocyte count, bicarbonate, anion gap, respiratory rate, PCO2, BMI, and age as most similar in having the highest aggregate gain, cover, and frequency metrics. CONCLUSION Machine Learning models that incorporate dendrograms and heat maps can offer additional summaries of model statistics in differentiating factors between in patient ICU mortality in heart failure patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander A. Huang
- Department of MD Education, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL, United States of America
| | - Samuel Y. Huang
- Department of Internal Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine, Richmond, VA, United States of America
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