Prevalence of Sudden Death in Palliative Care: Data From the Australian Palliative Care Outcomes Collaboration

Factors related to accurate clinicians' prediction of survival: an international multicenter study in East Asia

PURPOSE

Recent guidelines for prognostic evaluation recommend clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS) for survival prediction in patients with advanced cancer. However, CPS is often inaccurate and optimistic. Studies on factors associated with overestimation or underestimation of CPS are limited. We aimed to investigate the factors associated with the overestimation and underestimation of CPS in patients with far-advanced cancer.

METHODS

The current study was a secondary analysis of an international multicenter prospective cohort study, which enrolled newly admitted patients with advanced cancer in palliative care units (PCUs) in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 2017 to 2018. We obtained the temporal CPS at enrollment and performed multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify the factors associated with "underestimation (less than 33% of actual survival)" and "overestimation (more than 33% of actual survival)."

RESULTS

A total of 2571 patients were assessed and admitted in 37 PCUs between January 2017 and September 2018. Older age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.02; P < 0.01) and reduced oral intake (aOR 0.68; 95% CI 0.51-0.89; P < 0.01) were identified as significant factors associated with underestimation. Dyspnea (aOR 1.28; 95% CI 1.06-1.54; P = 0.01) and hyperactive delirium (aOR 1.34; 95% CI 1.05-1.72; P = 0.02) were identified as significant factors associated with overestimation.

CONCLUSION

Older age was related to underestimation, while dyspnea and hyperactive delirium were related to overestimation of CPS for patients with weeks of survival. However, reduced oral intake was less likely to lead to underestimation.

Death place and palliative outcome indicators in patients under palliative home care service: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Dying at home accompanied by loved-ones is regarded favorably and brings good luck in Taiwan. This study aimed to examine the relevant factors affecting whether an individual dies at home or not in a group of terminal patients receiving palliative home care service.

METHODS

The patients who were admitted to a palliative home care service at a hospital-affiliated home health care agency were consecutively enrolled between March 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022. During the period of care, the instruments of the palliative care outcomes collaboration was used to assess patients in each home visit twice a week, including symptom assessment scale, palliative care problem severity score, Australia-modified Karnofsky performance status, resource utilization groups-activities of daily living, and palliative care phase.

RESULTS

There were 56 participants (53.6% female) with a median age of 73.0 years (interquartile range (IQR) 61.3-80.3 y/o), of whom 51 (91.1%) patients were diagnosed with cancer and 49 (96.1%) had metastasis. The number of home visits was 3.5 (IQR 2.0-5.0) and the average number of days under palliative home care service was 31 (IQR 16.3-51.5) before their death. After the end of the study, there was a significant deterioration of sleeping, appetite, and breathing problems in the home-death group, and appetite problems in the non-home death patients. However, physician-reported psychological/spiritual problems improved in the home-death group, and pain improved in the non-home death patients. Physical performance deteriorated in both groups, and more resource utilization of palliative care was needed. The 44 patients who died at home had greater cancer disease severity, fewer admissions, and the proportion of families desiring a home death for the patient was higher.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the differences in palliative outcome indicators were minor between patients who died at home and those who died in the hospital, understanding the determinants and change of indicators after palliative care service at different death places may be helpful for improving the quality of end-of-life care.

Exploring Risk Factors of Unexpected Death, Using Palliative Care Outcomes Collaboration (PCOC) Measures, among Terminal Patients Receiving Palliative Care in Taiwan

Palliative care has the ability to relieve both physical discomfort and psychological distress in terminally ill patients. However, unexpected death may still occur in palliative care settings. This study aimed to utilize Palliative Care Outcomes Collaboration (PCOC) data to better determine any associated factors which may surround unexpected death in palliative care settings. Data were extracted from the PCOC database by the palliative care team within Taichung Veterans General Hospital (TCVGH). Data of deceased patients were extracted during the period from January 2021 to December 2021 from multiple palliative care settings. The deaths of patients whose last recorded palliative phase was 1-3 were defined as unexpected. A total of 280 deceased patients were included, with mean age at death being 67.73, 61% being male, and 83.2% cancer patients. We discovered that shortness of breath, as assessed by the Symptom Assessment Scale (SAS), decreased risk of unexpected death (OR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.84-0.98), while impending death discharge (OR: 3.93, 95% CI: 1.20-12.94) and a higher Australia-modified Karnofsky performance status (AKPS) score (OR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.10-1.21) were associated with unexpected death. Thus, medical staff must inform the family of patients early on regarding any risk factors surrounding unexpected death to help everyone involved be prepared in advance.

Prevalence and predictors for 72-h mortality after transfer to acute palliative care unit

Purpose

Accurate prediction of survival is important to facilitate clinical decision-making and improve quality of care at the end of life. While it is well documented that survival prediction poses a challenge for treating physicians, the need for clinically valuable predictive factors has not been met. This study aims to quantify the prevalence of patient transfer 72 h before death onto the acute palliative care unit in a tertiary care center in Switzerland, and to identify factors predictive of 72-h mortality.

Methods

All patients hospitalized between January and December 2020 on the acute palliative care unit of the Competence Center Palliative Care of the Department of Radiation Oncology at the University Hospital Zurich were assessed. Variables were retrieved from the electronic medical records. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used to identify predictors of mortality.

Results

A total of 398 patients were screened, of which 188 were assessed. Every fifth patient spent less than 72 h on the acute palliative care unit before death. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, predictors for 72-h mortality after transfer were no prior palliative care consult (p = 0.011), no advance care directive (p = 0.044), lower performance status (p = 0.035), lower self-care index (p = 0.003), and lower blood albumin level (p = 0.026).

Conclusion

Late transfer to the acute palliative care unit is not uncommon, which can cause additional distress to patients and caretakers. Though clinically practical short-term survival predictors remain largely unidentified, early integration of palliative care should be practiced more regularly in patients with life-limiting illness.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00520-022-07075-6.

Prognostication of the last days of life: Review article

Accurate prediction of impending death (i.e., last few days of life) is essential for terminally-ill cancer patients and their families. International guidelines state that clinicians should identify patients with impending death, communicate the prognosis with patients and families, help them with their end-of-life decision-making, and provide sufficient symptom palliation. Over the past decade, several national and international studies have been conducted that systematically investigated signs and symptoms of impending death as well as how to communicate such a prognosis effectively with patients and families. In this article, we summarize the current evidence on prognostication and communication regarding the last days of life of patients with cancer, and future directions of clinical research.

"The surprise questions" using variable time frames in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer

OBJECTIVE

Several studies supported the usefulness of "the surprise question" in terms of 1-year mortality of patients. "The surprise question" requires a "Yes" or "No" answer to the question "Would I be surprised if this patient died in [specific time frame]." However, the 1-year time frame is often too long for advanced cancer patients seen by palliative care personnel. "The surprise question" with shorter time frames is needed for decision making. We examined the accuracy of "the surprise question" for 7-day, 21-day, and 42-day survival in hospitalized patients admitted to palliative care units (PCUs).

METHOD

This was a prospective multicenter cohort study of 130 adult patients with advanced cancer admitted to 7 hospital-based PCUs in South Korea. The accuracy of "the surprise question" was compared with that of the temporal question for clinician's prediction of survival.

RESULTS

We analyzed 130 inpatients who died in PCUs during the study period. The median survival was 21.0 days. The sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy for the 7-day "the surprise question" were 46.7, 88.7, and 83.9%, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy for the 7-day temporal question were 6.7, 98.3, and 87.7%, respectively. The c-indices of the 7-day "the surprise question" and 7-day temporal question were 0.662 (95% CI: 0.539-0.785) and 0.521 (95% CI: 0.464-0.579), respectively. The c-indices of the 42-day "the surprise question" and 42-day temporal question were 0.554 (95% CI: 0.509-0.599) and 0.616 (95% CI: 0.569-0.663), respectively.

SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS

Surprisingly, "the surprise questions" and temporal questions had similar accuracies. The high specificities for the 7-day "the surprise question" and 7- and 21-day temporal question suggest they may be useful to rule in death if positive.

Incidence and associated factors of sudden unexpected death in advanced cancer patients: A multicenter prospective cohort study

Purpose

A sudden unexpected death has significant negative impacts on patients, family caregivers, and medical staff in hospice/palliative care. This study aimed to clarify the incidence and associated factors of sudden unexpected death according to four definitions in advanced cancer patients.

Methods

We performed a prospective cohort study in 23 inpatient hospices/palliative care units in Japan. Advanced cancer patients aged ≥18 years who were admitted to inpatient hospices/palliative care units were included. The incidence and associated factors of sudden unexpected death were evaluated in all enrolled patients according to four definitions: (a) rapid decline death, defined as a sudden death preceded by functional decline over 1–2 days; (b) surprise death, defined if the primary responsible palliative care physician answered “yes” to the question, “Were you surprised by the timing of the death?”; (c) unexpected death, defined as a death that occurred earlier than the physicians had anticipated; and (d) performance status (PS)‐defined sudden death, defined as a death that occurred within 1 week of functional status assessment with an Australia‐modified Karnofsky PS ≥50.

Results

Among 1896 patients, the incidence of rapid decline death was the highest (30‐day cumulative incidence: 16.8%, 95% CI: 14.8–19.0%), followed by surprise death (9.6%, 8.1–11.4%), unexpected death (9.0%, 7.5–10.8%), and PS‐defined sudden death (6.4%, 5.2–8.0%). Male sex, liver metastasis, dyspnea, malignant skin lesion, and fluid retention were significantly associated with the occurrence of sudden unexpected death.

Conclusion

Sudden unexpected death is not uncommon even in inpatient hospices/palliative care units, with range of 6.4–16.8% according to the different definitions.

Missed opportunity? Worsening breathlessness as a harbinger of death: a cohort study

The aim of the study was to explore trajectories of breathlessness intensity by function and life-limiting illness diagnosis in the last 3 weeks of life in palliative care patients.

A prospective, consecutive cohort study obtained point-of-care data of patients of Silver Chain Hospice Care Service (Perth, Australia) over the period 2011–2014 (n=6801; 51 494 data-points). Breathlessness intensity (0–10 numerical rating scale) and physical function (Australia-modified Karnofsky Performance Status (AKPS)) were measured at each visit. Time was anchored at death. Breathlessness trajectory was analysed by physical function and diagnosis using mixed effects regression.

Mean±sdage was 71.5±15.1 years and 55.2% were male, most with cancer. The last recorded AKPS was >40 for 26.8%. Breathlessness was worst in people with cardiorespiratory disease and AKPS >40, and breathlessness in the last week of life increased most in this group (adjusted mean 2.92versusall others 1.51; p=0.0001). The only significant interaction was with diagnosis and function in the last week of life (p<0.0001).

Breathlessness is more intense and increases more in people with better function and cardiorespiratory disease immediately before death. Whether there are reversible causes for these people should be explored prospectively. Omitting function from previous population estimates may have overestimated breathlessness intensity for many patients in the days preceding death.