Mortality and Neurodevelopmental Outcomes in the Heart Rate Characteristics Monitoring Randomized Controlled Trial

Machine Learning Models as Early Warning Systems for Neonatal Infection

Neonatal infections pose a significant threat to the health of newborns. Associated morbidity and mortality risks underscore the urgency of prompt diagnosis and treatment with appropriate empiric antibiotics. Delay in treatment can be fatal; thus, early detection improves outcomes. However, diagnosing early is a challenge as signs and symptoms of neonatal infection are non-specific and overlap with non-infectious conditions. Machine learning (ML) offers promise in early detection, utilizing various data sources and methodologies. However, ML models require rigorous validation and consideration of various challenges, including false alarms and user acceptance requiring careful integration and ongoing evaluation for successful implementation.

Heart Rate Characteristics Monitoring for Late-Onset Sepsis in Preterm Infants: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Early diagnosis of late-onset sepsis (LOS) and necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) by monitoring heart rate characteristics (HRC) of preterm infants might reduce the risk of death and morbidities. We aimed to systematically assess the effects of HRC monitoring on death, LOS, and NEC.

METHODS

A systematic search was performed in MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science.

RESULTS

Fifteen papers were included in this review. Three of these papers reported results from the only identified randomized controlled trial (RCT). This RCT showed that HRC monitoring resulted in a small but significant reduction in mortality (absolute risk reduction 2.1% [95% confidence interval 0.01-4.14]) without any differences in neurodevelopmental impairment. The risk of bias was rated high due to performance and detection bias and failure to correct for multiple testing. Most diagnostic cohort studies showed high discriminating accuracy in predicting LOS but lacked sufficient quality and generalizability. No studies for the detection of NEC were identified.

CONCLUSION

Supported by multiple observational cohort studies, the RCT identified in this systematic review showed that HRC monitoring as an early warning system for LOS might reduce the risk of death in preterm infants. However, methodological weaknesses and limited generalizability do not justify implementation of HRC in clinical care. A large international RCT is warranted.

The principles of whole-hospital predictive analytics monitoring for clinical medicine originated in the neonatal ICU

In 2011, a multicenter group spearheaded at the University of Virginia demonstrated reduced mortality from real-time continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring in the neonatal ICU using what we now call Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, and Machine Learning. The large, randomized heart rate characteristics trial made real, for the first time that we know of, the promise that early detection of illness would allow earlier and more effective intervention and improved patient outcomes. Currently, though, we hear as much of failures as we do of successes in the rapidly growing field of predictive analytics monitoring that has followed. This Perspective aims to describe the principles of how we developed heart rate characteristics monitoring for neonatal sepsis and then applied them throughout adult ICU and hospital medicine. It primarily reflects the work since the 1990s of the University of Virginia group: the theme is that sudden and catastrophic deteriorations can be preceded by subclinical but measurable physiological changes apparent in the continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring and electronic health record.

Ideal algorithms in healthcare: Explainable, dynamic, precise, autonomous, fair, and reproducible

Established guidelines describe minimum requirements for reporting algorithms in healthcare; it is equally important to objectify the characteristics of ideal algorithms that confer maximum potential benefits to patients, clinicians, and investigators. We propose a framework for ideal algorithms, including 6 desiderata: explainable (convey the relative importance of features in determining outputs), dynamic (capture temporal changes in physiologic signals and clinical events), precise (use high-resolution, multimodal data and aptly complex architecture), autonomous (learn with minimal supervision and execute without human input), fair (evaluate and mitigate implicit bias and social inequity), and reproducible (validated externally and prospectively and shared with academic communities). We present an ideal algorithms checklist and apply it to highly cited algorithms. Strategies and tools such as the predictive, descriptive, relevant (PDR) framework, the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials-Artificial Intelligence (SPIRIT-AI) extension, sparse regression methods, and minimizing concept drift can help healthcare algorithms achieve these objectives, toward ideal algorithms in healthcare.

Discovery of signatures of fatal neonatal illness in vital signs using highly comparative time-series analysis

To seek new signatures of illness in heart rate and oxygen saturation vital signs from Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) patients, we implemented highly comparative time-series analysis to discover features of all-cause mortality in the next 7 days. We collected 0.5 Hz heart rate and oxygen saturation vital signs of infants in the University of Virginia NICU from 2009 to 2019. We applied 4998 algorithmic operations from 11 mathematical families to random daily 10 min segments from 5957 NICU infants, 205 of whom died. We clustered the results and selected a representative from each, and examined multivariable logistic regression models. 3555 operations were usable; 20 cluster medoids held more than 81% of the information, and a multivariable model had AUC 0.83. New algorithms outperformed others: moving threshold, successive increases, surprise, and random walk. We computed provenance of the computations and constructed a software library with links to the data. We conclude that highly comparative time-series analysis revealed new vital sign measures to identify NICU patients at the highest risk of death in the next week.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of heart rate characteristics monitoring to improve survival for very low birth weight infants

Introduction

Over 50,000 very low birth weight (VLBW) infants are born each year in the United States. Despite advances in care, these premature babies are subjected to long stays in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), and experience high rates of morbidity and mortality. In a large randomized controlled trial (RCT), heart rate characteristics (HRC) monitoring in addition to standard monitoring decreased all-cause mortality among VLBW infants by 22%. We sought to understand the cost-effectiveness of HRC monitoring to improve survival among VLBW infants.

Methods

We performed a secondary analysis of cost-effectiveness of heart rate characteristics (HRC) monitoring to improve survival from birth to NICU discharge, up to 120 days using data and outcomes from an RCT of 3,003 VLBW patients. We estimated each patient's cost from a third-party perspective in 2021 USD using the resource utilization data gathered during the RCT (NCT00307333) during their initial stay in the NICU and applied to specific per diem rates. We computed the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and used non-parametric boot-strapping to evaluate uncertainty.

Results

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of HRC-monitoring was $34,720 per life saved. The 95th percentile of cost to save one additional life through HRC-monitoring was $449,291.

Conclusion

HRC-monitoring appears cost-effective for increasing survival among VLBW infants.

Continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring is a dominant source of predictive signal in machine learning for risk stratification and clinical decision support. Physiol Meas 2021;42. [PMID: 34580243 DOI: 10.1088/1361-6579/ac2130]

Beaulieu-Jones and coworkers propose a litmus test for the field of predictive analytics-performance improvements must be demonstrated to be the result of non-clinician-initiated data, otherwise, there should be caution in assuming that predictive models could improve clinical decision-making (Beaulieu-Joneset al2021). They demonstrate substantial prognostic information in unsorted physician orders made before the first midnight of hospital admission, and we are persuaded that it is fair to ask-if the physician thought of it first, what exactly is machine learning for in-patient risk stratification learning about? While we want predictive analytics to represent the leading indicators of a patient's illness, does it instead merely reflect the lagging indicators of clinicians' actions? We propose that continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring-'routine telemetry data,' in Beaulieu-Jones' terms-represents the most valuable non-clinician-initiated predictive signal present in patient data, and the value added to patient care justifies the efforts and expense required. Here, we present a clinical and a physiological point of view to support our contention.

External validation of a novel signature of illness in continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring to detect early respiratory deterioration of ICU patients

Objective:

The goal of predictive analytics monitoring is the early detection of patients at high risk of subacute potentially catastrophic illnesses. An excellent example of a targeted illness is respiratory failure leading to urgent unplanned intubation, where early detection might lead to interventions that improve patient outcomes. Previously, we identified signatures of this illness in the continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring data of intensive care unit (ICU) patients and devised algorithms to identify patients at rising risk. Here, we externally validated three logistic regression models to estimate the risk of emergency intubation developed in Medical and Surgical ICUs at the University of Virginia.

Approach:

We calculated the model outputs for more than 8000 patients in the University of California—San Francisco ICUs, 240 of whom underwent emergency intubation as determined by individual chart review.

Main results:

We found that the AUC of the models exceeded 0.75 in this external population, and that the risk rose appreciably over the 12 h before the event.

Significance:

We conclude that there are generalizable physiological signatures of impending respiratory failure in the continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring data.

Principles for Real-World Implementation of Bedside Predictive Analytics Monitoring

A new development in the practice of medicine is Artificial Intelligence-based predictive analytics that forewarn clinicians of future deterioration of their patients. This proactive opportunity, though, is different from the reactive stance that clinicians traditionally take. Implementing these tools requires new ideas about how to educate clinician users to facilitate trust and adoption and to promote sustained use. Our real-world hospital experience implementing a predictive analytics monitoring system that uses electronic health record and continuous monitoring data has taught us principles that we believe to be applicable to the implementation of other such analytics systems within the health care environment. These principles are mentioned below:• To promote trust, the science must be understandable.• To enhance uptake, the workflow should not be impacted greatly.• To maximize buy-in, engagement at all levels is important.• To ensure relevance, the education must be tailored to the clinical role and hospital culture.• To lead to clinical action, the information must integrate into clinical care.• To promote sustainability, there should be periodic support interactions after formal implementation.

Heart rate characteristics monitoring and reduction in mortality or neurodevelopmental impairment in extremely low birthweight infants with sepsis

We questioned whether a heart rate characteristics (HRC) sepsis risk score displayed to clinicians would modify 18-22 month neurodevelopmental outcomes for extremely low birthweight infants who develop sepsis. Infants allocated to HRC display with sepsis had a 12% absolute reduction in the composite outcome of death or neurodevelopmental impairment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00307333.

Biomarkers for the Diagnosis of Neonatal Sepsis

Neonatal sepsis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in neonates and is challenging to diagnose. Infants manifest nonspecific clinical signs in response to sepsis; these signs may be caused by noninfectious conditions. Time to antibiotics affects neonatal sepsis outcome, so clinicians need to identify and treat neonates with sepsis expeditiously. Clinicians use serum biomarkers to measure inflammation and infection and assess the infant's risk of sepsis. However, current biomarkers lack sufficient sensitivity or specificity to be consider useful diagnostic tools. Continued research to identify novel biomarkers as well as novel ways of measuring them is sorely needed.

Intelligent Neonatal Sepsis Early Diagnosis System for Very Low Birth Weight Infants

Neonatal sepsis is a critical pathology that particularly affects the neonates in intensive care, especially if they are preterm and low birth weight, with an incidence varying between 1and 40% according to the onset (early or late) of the disease. Prompt diagnostic and therapeutic interventions could reduce the high percentage of mortality that characterises this pathology, especially in the premature and low weight neonates. The HeRO score analyses the heart rate variability and represents the risk of contracting sepsis because of the hospitalization in the neonatal intensive care unit up to 24 h before the clinical signs. However, it has been demonstrated that the HeRO score can produce many false-positive cases, thus leading to the start of unnecessary antibiotic therapy. In this work, the authors propose an optimised artificial neural network model able to diagnose sepsis early based on the HeRO score along with a series of parameters strictly connected to the risk of neonatal sepsis. The proposed methodology shows promising results, outperforming the diagnostic accuracy of the only HeRO score and reducing the number of false positives, thus revealing itself to be a promising tool for supporting the clinicians in the daily clinical practice.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Calls for Predictive Analytics Monitoring-A New Kind of Illness Scoring System

Coronavirus disease 2019 can lead to sudden and severe respiratory failure that mandates endotracheal intubation, a procedure much more safely performed under elective rather than emergency conditions. Early warning of rising risk of this event could benefit both patients and healthcare providers by reducing the high risk of emergency intubation. Current illness severity scoring systems, which usually update only when clinicians measure vital signs or laboratory values, are poorly suited for early detection of this kind of rapid clinical deterioration. We propose that continuous predictive analytics monitoring, a new approach to bedside management, is more useful. The principles of this new practice anchor in analysis of continuous bedside monitoring data, training models on diagnosis-specific paths of deterioration using clinician-identified events, and continuous display of trends in risks rather than alerts when arbitrary thresholds are exceeded.