Tumor Size Improves the Accuracy of the Prognostic Prediction of Lymph Node-Negative Gastric Cancer

Prognostic Value of Tumor Size in Gastric Cancer: A Retrospective Cohort Study Based on SEER Database

Background. Although tumor size is regarded as the "T" stage of the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system for many solid tumors, its prognostic impact in gastric cancer remains uncertain and conflicting. Methods. We enrolled 6960 eligible patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The X-tile program was used to select the best cut-off value of tumor size. Then, the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards model were applied to examine the efficacy of tumor size on prognostic prediction for overall survival (OS) and gastric cancer-specific survival (GCSS). The presence of nonlinear association was determined by the restricted cubic spline (RCS) model. Results. Tumor size was divided into 3 groups: small size (≤2.5 cm), medium size (2.6-5.2 cm), and large size (≥5.3 cm). After adjusting by covariates such as depth of tumor infiltration, the large and medium groups showed a worse prognosis than the small group; however, no survival difference in OS was suggested between the medium and large groups. Similarly, although there was a nonlinear relationship between tumor size and survival, increasing tumor size did not show an independent negative effect on prognosis in the RCS analysis. However, the stratified analyses proposed this 3-way cut of tumor size in prognostic prediction for patients with both inadequate lymphadenectomy and negative nodal metastasis. Conclusions. Tumor size as a prognostic predictor may not have good clinical applicability in gastric cancer. Otherwise, it was recommended for patients with both insufficient examinations of lymph nodes and stage N0 disease.

Development and validation of nomograms for predicting overall survival and cancer-specific survival in elderly patients with locally advanced gastric cancer: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the multiple factors influencing the survival of elderly patients with locally advanced gastric cancer (LAGC) and develop and validate the novel nomograms for predicting the survival.

METHODS

The clinical features of patients treated between 2000 and 2018 were collected and collated from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and three medical centres in China, and the patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (3494), internal validation cohort (1497) and external validation cohort (841). Univariate and multivariate analyses of the prognostic values were performed to identify independent prognostic factors associated with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS), and two nomogram models were developed. Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves were employed to assess discrimination and calibration. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to investigate the clinical usefulness.

RESULTS

In the SEER database, the 5-year OS of the patients was 31.08%, while the 5-year CSS of the patients was 44.09%. Furthermore, in the external validation set, the 5-year OS of the patients was 49.58%, and the 5-year CSS of these patients was 53.51%. After statistical analysis, nine independent prognostic factors of OS and CSS were identified, including age, race, tumour size, differentiation, TNM stage, gastrectomy type, lymph node metastasis (LNM), lymph node ratio (LNR) and chemotherapy. The C-index (approximately 0.7) and calibration curve (close to the optimal calibration line) indicated satisfactory discrimination and calibration of the nomogram. DCA and ROC curves showed that the developed nomogram was superior to TNM stage.

CONCLUSION

The novel validated nomogram could accurately predict the prognosis of individual elderly patients with LAGC and guide the selection of clinical treatment measures.

Family history of malignant tumor is a predictor of gastric cancer prognosis: Incorporation into a nomogram

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of a family history of malignant tumor on the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer and develop a nomogram that incorporates a family history of malignant tumor to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with gastric cancer to aid clinicians and patients in decision making. Four hundred eighty-eight patients with gastric cancer undergoing radical gastrectomy in our center were included and randomly split into a training set (n = 350) and a validation set (n = 138) at a ratio of 7:3. Cox univariate regression analysis was used to evaluate the influence of clinicopathological characteristics and family history of malignant tumors on their prognosis, and variables were screened by multivariate Cox regression analysis and consensus on clinical evidence. A nomogram was constructed for OS based on the filtered variables, and the C-index, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve), and calibration curve were used to validate the nomogram and decision curve analysis curve (DCA curve) was used for clinical practicality assessment. Six variables related to OS, including the pathological differentiation degree, Lauren type, infiltration depth, lymph node metastasis, tumor deposit, and family history of malignant tumor, were screened to construct a nomogram. The nomogram developed in this study performed well in the training set and the validation set, with C-index of 0.776 and 0.757, and the area under the ROC curve(AUC) for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates are 0.838, 0.850, 0.820 and 0.754, 0.789, 0.808, respectively. The calibration curve shows that the estimated death risk of the nomogram in the 2 data sets is very close to the actual death risk. The net benefits of nomogram-guided prediction of patient survival at 1-, 3-, and 5 years were demonstrated by the DCA curves, which showed high clinical practicability. Family history of malignant tumors is an independent risk factor affecting the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer. The nomogram developed in this research can be used as an important tool to predict the prognosis of gastric cancer patients with family history data.

Tumor Characteristics Associated with Lymph Node Metastasis and Prognosis in Patients with ERBB2-Positive Gastric Cancer

Gastric cancers (GCs) that express human erb-b2 receptor tyrosine kinase 2 (ERBB2, also known as HER2) account for 7.3%–20.2% of GCs. The pathological and prognostic factors associated with lymph node metastasis of such tumors are still unclear. Therefore, we aimed to identify the risk factors for lymph node metastasis and prognostic factors of patients with ERBB2-positive GC. We conducted a retrospective analysis of pathological specimens after D2 radical surgery for locally advanced GC and D1+ surgery performed for early GC in our hospital from January 2015 to December 2018. Patients with ERBB2-positive GC were selected and the potential risk factors for lymph node metastasis and potential factors affecting prognosis were evaluated. Among 1,124 GC patients, 122 diagnosed with ERBB2-positive GC were included in the study. We found that risk factors for lymph node metastasis included tumor size (hazard ratio (HR)- 6.213, 95% confidence interval (CI)- 2.097–18.407, p = 0.001), neural invasion (HR- 2.876, 95% CI - 1.011–8.184, p = 0.048), and vascular invasion (HR- 16.881, 95% CI - 5.207–54.727, p < 0.001). T stage (HR- 4.615, 95% CI - 2.182–9.759, p < 0.001) and vascular invasion (HR- 3.036, 95% CI - 1.369–6.736, p = 0.006) were significant prognostic variables. These findings shed new light on the pathology and prognosis of patients with ERBB2-positive GC.

The prognostic role of tumor size in stage T1 gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

The purpose was to assess the contribution of tumor size to the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer.

METHODS

Patient data were sourced from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (SEER) database. Cox proportional risk regression was performed to determine the prognostic role of tumor size. Kaplan-Meier curves were conducted to calculate survival curves. Consistency index (c-index) and subject exercise curve (ROC) were utilized to assess the predictive ability of each factor on the prognosis of gastric cancer.

RESULTS

Tumor size is preferable to other widely accepted prognostic clinical features in forecasting the survival of patients with gastric cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The discriminatory ability of tumor size at T1 stage is superior to many other clinical prognostic factors.

A Practical Nomogram for Predicting the Prognosis of Elderly Patients with Gastric Adenocarcinoma After Gastrectomy

Purpose

To establish a pragmatic prognostic nomogram for predicting the survival of elderly patients undergoing gastrectomy for gastric adenocarcinoma.

Patients and Methods

Data of elderly patients undergoing gastrectomy for gastric adenocarcinoma between 2004 and 2015 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Prognostic factors were identified by the Kaplan–Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards model. Based on these factors, we developed a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) and gastric cancer-specific survival (GCSS). Concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve are employed to assess the predictive accuracy of the model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis are applied to further appraise the clinical utility of the model.

Results

A total of 8401 cases were incorporated into this research. After univariate and multivariate analyses, nine prognostic factors of OS were identified, including age (P < 0.001), race (P < 0.001), marital status (P < 0.001), tumor site (P < 0.001), tumor size (P = 0.024), differentiation (P < 0.001), T stage (P < 0.001), N stage (P < 0.001), and M stage (P < 0.001); ten prognostic factors of GCSS were identified, including age (P < 0.001), race (P < 0.001), tumor site (P < 0.001), tumor size (P = 0.002), differentiation (P < 0.001), T stage (P < 0.001), N stage (P < 0.001), M stage (P < 0.001), radiotherapy (P < 0.001) and chemotherapy (P < 0.001). The C-index of the constructed nomogram for OS was 0.708 (95% CI: 0.701–0.715) while for GCSS was 0.745 (95% CI: 0.737–0.753). The calibration curves of the nomogram predictions and actual observations displayed good agreement for the 3- and 5-year OS and GCSS probabilities. The results of DCA and the area under the curve calculated by ROC analysis showed that the developed model was superior than TNM stage.

Conclusion

The nomogram we established could accurately predict the prognosis of individual elderly patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric adenocarcinoma.

Tumor size improves the accuracy of the prognostic prediction of T4a stage colon cancer

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential impact of tumor size on the long-term outcome of colon cancer (CC) patients after curative surgery. A total of 782 curatively resected T4a stage CC patients without distant metastasis were enrolled. Patients were categorized into 2 groups according to the best threshold of tumor size: larger group (LG) and smaller group (SG). Propensity score matching was used to adjust for the differences in baseline characteristics. The ideal cutoff point of tumor size was 5 cm. In the multivariate analysis for the whole study series, tumor size was an independent prognostic factor. Patients in the LG had significant lower 5-year overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS) rates (OS: 63.5% versus 75.2%, P < 0.001; RFS: 59.5% versus 72.4%, P < 0.001) than those in the SG. After matching, patients in the LG still demonstrated significant lower 5-year OS and RFS rates than those in the SG. The modified tumor-size-node-metastasis (mTSNM) staging system including tumor size was found to be more appropriate for predicting the OS and RFS of T4a stage CC than TNM stage, and the -2log likelihood of the mTSNM staging system was smaller than the value of TNM stage. In conclusion, tumor size was an independent prognostic factor for OS and RFS. We maintain that tumor size should be incorporated into the staging system to enhance the accuracy of the prognostic prediction of T4a stage CC patients.

Effects of Preoperative Pyloric Stenosis on Outcomes and Nutritional Status in 73 Patients Following Curative Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer: A Retrospective Study from a Single Center

Background

The aim of this study was to explore the potential impact of pyloric stenosis (PS) on the nutritional status, the incidence of postoperative complications, and the long-term prognosis of distal gastric cancer (GC) patients after curative resection.

Material/Methods

We retrospectively analyzed the data of 343 GC patients who underwent curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer between January 2010 and December 2013. All patients were divided into 2 groups according to the status of PS. Their clinical and pathological features, nutritional indicators, and incidence of postoperative complications were compared and potential prognostic factors were analyzed using the propensity score matching analysis (PSM).

Results

Seventy-four (21.6%) patients had PS. Patients with PS had worse survival outcomes than those without PS (χ²=21.369, P<0.001). Multivariate survival analysis demonstrated that PS, depth of invasion, and lymph node metastasis (all P<0.05) were the independent predictors of overall survival (OS). Patients with PS had significantly higher lymph node metastasis in No. 3, 4sb, 4d, 6, 8a, 9, and 14v lymph nodes. Patients with PS had significantly lower preoperative BMI, more weight loss, and lower prealbumin than those without PS. There were no significant differences between the 2 groups in postoperative complications, morbidity, or mortality.

Conclusions

Distal GC patients with PS have poor clinicopathological and nutritional status and poor prognosis. However, PS does not increase surgery-related morbidity and mortality.

Effect of Tumor Size on Long-Term Survival After Resection for Solitary Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

Background

The relationship between tumor size and survival in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is still controversial. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic ability of tumor size for solitary ICC after resection and explore optimal cut-off values in different subgroups.

Methods

Patients with solitary ICC who underwent liver resection from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and Shandong Provincial Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic ability of tumor size. The log-rank test was used to determine the optimal cut-off values, and a minimum P was regarded as the optimal one in different subgroups.

Results

Large tumor size groups had worse overall survival (OS) than small tumor size groups. Cox regression analysis suggested that tumor size was an independent prognostic factor for OS for solitary ICC after resection. Subgroup analysis showed tumor size was associated with OS for both solitary ICC with and without vascular invasion (VI). Furthermore, the optimal cut-off values for solitary ICC with and without VI were found to be 8 and 3 cm, respectively, which could divide the patients into two groups with significant differences in OS.

Conclusion

Tumor size was an independent prognostic factor for solitary ICC after resection. The existing American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system could be improved if the cut-off value of the T1 stage was changed to 8 cm and if the T2 stage incorporated a tumor size with a cut-off value of 3 cm. Further studies with more cases are needed to validate these findings.

RECURRENCE IN PN0 GASTRIC CANCER: RISK FACTORS IN THE OCCIDENT

BACKGROUND

Nearly 10% of node negative gastric cancer patients who underwent curative surgery have disease recurrence. Western data is extremely poor on this matter and identifying the risk factors that associate with relapse may allow new strategies to improve survival.

AIM

Verify the clinical and pathological characteristics that correlate with recurrence in node negative gastric cancer.

METHODS

All gastric cancer patients submitted to gastrectomy between 2009 and 2019 at our institution and pathologically classified as N0 were considered. Their data were available in a prospective database. Inclusion criteria were: gastric adenocarcinoma, node negative, gastrectomy with curative intent, R0 resection. Main outcomes studied were: disease-free survival and overall survival.

RESULTS

A total of 270 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Mean age was 63-year-old and 155 were males. Subtotal gastrectomy and D2 lymphadenectomy were performed in 64% and 74.4%, respectively. Mean lymph node yield was 37.6. Early GC was present in 54.1% of the cases. Mean follow-up was 40.8 months and 19 (7%) patients relapsed. Disease-free survival and overall survival were 90.9% and 74.6%, respectively. Independent risk factors for worse disease-free survival were: total gastrectomy, lesion size ≥3.4 cm, higher pT status and <16 lymph nodes resected.

CONCLUSION

In western gastric cancer pN0 patients submitted to gastrectomy, lymph node count <16, pT3-4 status, tumor size ≥3.4 cm, total gastrectomy and presence of lymphatic invasion, are all risk factors for disease relapse.

Adjuvant Chemotherapy vs. Surgery Alone for pT3N0M0 Gastric Cancer

BACKGROUND

As both the role and clinical application of adjuvant chemotherapy (CTx) for pT3N0M0 gastric cancer after curative gastrectomy have fluctuated chronologically, the oncological benefit of adjuvant CTx in patients should be elucidated.

METHODS

Between 2000 and 2018, 1083 patients underwent radical gastrectomy for pT3N0M0 gastric cancer and were subsequently divided into two groups: the surgery-alone group (n = 471) and the adjuvant CTx group (n = 612). Chronological changes in adjuvant CTx and various chemotherapeutic regimens were evaluated and disease-free survival was compared between the two groups. Risk factors for tumor recurrence were also analyzed.

RESULTS

The proportion of patients in the surgery-alone group was more than 60% until 2001, whereas in the CTx group this increased to over 80%, especially after publication of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th edition staging manual. The main chemotherapeutic agents were tegafur-uracil (UFT) and 5-fluorouracil with leucovorin until 2008, whereas tegafur/gimeracil/oteracil (TS-1) has been the main agent since 2009. The 5-year disease-free survival was 89.2% in the surgery-alone group and 89.9% in the CTx group, which was not significantly different (p = 0.694). In multivariate analysis, larger tumor size (≥ 4.5 cm) and venous invasion were significant risk factors for tumor recurrence. In addition, adjuvant CTx did not improve the oncological outcome, even in the large tumor size group (p = 0.760) and the venous invasion group (p = 0.753).

CONCLUSIONS

As adjuvant CTx did not show any oncological benefit in pT3N0M0 gastric cancer in this large-scale study, it might be unnecessary for these patients after curative gastrectomy.

Changing trends of clinicopathologic features and survival duration after surgery for gastric cancer in Northeast China

BACKGROUND

Through analyzing the data from a single institution in Northeast China, this study revealed the possible clinicopathologic characteristics that influence the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer (GC).

AIM

To evaluate the changing trends of clinicopathologic features and survival duration after surgery in patients with GC in Northeast China, which is a high-prevalence area of GC.

METHODS

The study analyzed the difference in clinicopathologic features and survival duration after surgery of 5887 patients who were histologically diagnosed with GC at the Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital. The study mainly analyzed the data in three periods, 2000 to 2004 (Phase 1), 2005 to 2009 (Phase 2), and 2010 to 2014 (Phase 3).

RESULTS

Over time, the postoperative survival rate significantly increased from 2000 to 2014. In the past 15 years, compared with Phases 1 and 2, the tumor size was smaller in Phase 3 (P < 0.001), but the proportion of high-medium differentiated tumors increased (P < 0.001). The proportion of early GC gradually increased from 3.9% to 14.4% (P < 0.001). A surprising improvement was observed in the mean number of retrieved lymph nodes, ranging from 11.4 to 27.5 (P < 0.001). The overall 5-year survival rate increased from 24% in Phase 1 to 43.8% in Phase 3. Through multivariate analysis, it was found that age, tumor size, histologic type, tumor-node-metastasis stage, depth of invasion, lymph node metastasis, surgical approach, local infiltration, radical extent, number of retrieved lymph nodes, and age group were independent risk factors that influenced the prognosis of patients with GC.

CONCLUSION

The clinical features of GC in Northeast China changed during the observation period. The increasing detection of early GC and more standardized surgical treatment effectively prolonged lifetimes.