Predictors of Undergraduate and Postgraduate Clinical Performance: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Admission criteria and academic performance in medical school

BACKGROUND

Different variables have been used to predict the academic performance of students in medical schools. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of demographics, admission system, and high-school background on the academic performance of medical students.

METHODS

We conducted this longitudinal cohort study on 808 students admitted to the Faculty of. Medicine at the University of Jordan (Amman, Jordan), in the years 2012 and 2013. Admission pathway, and academic performance data were collected and analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 808 students [i.e., 426 (52.7%) females, and 382(47.3%) males] were identified. Admitted students were holding 17 different types of high school degrees, and were accepted through 6 different quota pathways (open competition [National unified admission], underprivileged ["Makrumah"], parallel, children of university staff, international students, and others). Students admitted through the open competition and the underprivileged quota(Makrumah) were more likely to graduate on time and had higher graduation grades while students admitted through the parallel, international and others quota were more likely to fail and had lower graduation grades. Regarding highs school degrees, the students that were more likely to graduate were those with IB and the Jordanian high school degrees. The highest graduation GPA was for IB students followed by SAT, IGCSE as well as Jordanian and Syrian high school degrees respectively. IB, Jordanian, Kuwaiti and IGSC high school grades were significantly correlated with the graduation GPA.

CONCLUSIONS

Admission criteria such as type of high school degree and grades as well as admission pathways can predict the likelihood to graduate and the graduation GPA of medical students. Open competition and underprivileged admission pathways as well as IB, IGCSE and Jordanian high school degrees seem to be better predictors of student performance in the medical school.

Predictors of clinical experience performance in occupational therapy and physiotherapy: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Successful completion of clinical education experiences is a graduation requirement for students in occupational therapy and physical therapy programmes. A scoping review was conducted to determine what is known about possible clinical experience performance predictors and to find associated research gaps.

METHODS

The search included one hand-searched journal and seven databases, which were used to identify related relevant studies: CINAHL, Education Database, Education Source, Education Resources Information Center (ERIC), PubMed, REHABDATA, and Web of Science. A research librarian guided the search process, and the review's reporting is structured by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) Checklist. Studies were included if they contained predictors of clinical experience success indicated by validated performance evaluation tools that were scored by clinical instructors. A multidisciplinary team reviewed the title, abstract, and full text for inclusion and conducted thematic data synthesis to categorise findings.

FINDINGS

Twenty-six articles met the inclusion criteria. The majority of articles were of correlational design and included single institutions. Seventeen articles included occupational therapy, eight included physical therapy, with only one article including both programmes. Four categories of predictors of clinical experience success were identified: pre-admission variables, academic preparation, learner characteristics, and demographics. Each of the main categories included three to six subcategories. Key findings included the following: (a) The most common cited predictors in clinical experiences are academic preparation and learner characteristics, (b) more experimental design studies are needed to determine the causal relationship between predictors and clinical experience success, and (c) future research is needed on ethnic disparities and clinical experience success.

CONCLUSION

Findings from this review show that possible predictors of clinical experience success include a wide range of factors when correlating success with a standardised tool. Academic preparation and learner characteristics were the most investigated predictors. There were only a small number of studies that found a correlation with pre-admission variables. The findings of this study suggest that students' academic achievement may be a critical element of clinical experience preparation. Future research using experimental designs and across institutions is needed to determine the main predictors for student success.

The impact of holistic review on correlations between doctoral student outcomes, and GPA and GRE scores in the biomedical sciences

Graduate admissions committees throughout the United States examine both quantitative and qualitative data from applicants to make admissions determinations. A number of recent studies have examined the ability of commonly used quantitative metrics such as the GRE and undergraduate GPA to predict the likelihood of applicant success in graduate programs. We examined whether an admissions committee could predict applicant success at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center UTHealth Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences based on quantitative metrics. We analyzed the predictive validity of admissions scores, undergraduate GPA, and the GRE for student success. We observed nuanced differences based on gender, ethnicity, race, and citizenship status. The scores assigned to applicants by the admissions committee could not predict time to degree in PhD students regardless of demographic group. Undergraduate GPA was correlated with time to degree in some instances. Interestingly, while GRE scores could predict time to degree, GRE percentile scores could predict both time to degree and PhD candidacy examination results. These findings suggest that there is a level of nuance that is required for interpretation of these quantitative metrics by admissions committees.

Can achievement at medical admission tests predict future performance in postgraduate clinical assessments? A UK-based national cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether scores on two undergraduate admissions tests (BioMedical Admissions Test (BMAT) and University Clinical Aptitude Test (UCAT)) predict performance on the postgraduate Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians (MRCP) examination, including the clinical examination Practical Assessment of Clinical Examination Skills (PACES).

DESIGN

National cohort study.

SETTING

Doctors who graduated medical school between 2006 and 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

3045 doctors who had sat BMAT, UCAT and the MRCP.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Passing each section of the MRCP at the first attempt, including the clinical assessment PACES.

RESULTS

Several BMAT and UCAT subtest scores displayed incremental predictive validity for performance on the first two (written) parts of the MRCP. Only aptitude and skills on BMAT (OR 1.34, 1.08 to 1.67, p=0.01) and verbal reasoning on UCAT (OR 1.34, 1.04 to 1.71, p=0.02) incrementally predicted passing PACES at the first attempt.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results imply that the abilities assessed by aptitude and skills and verbal reasoning may be the most important cognitive attributes, of those routinely assessed at selection, for predicting future clinical performance. Selectors may wish to consider placing particular weight on scales assessing these attributes if they wish to select applicants likely to become more competent clinicians. These results are potentially relevant in an international context too, since many admission tests used globally, such as the Medical College Admission Test, assess similar abilities.

University Admission Test Associates with Academic Performance at the End of Medical Course in a PBL Medical Hybrid Curriculum

PURPOSE

Most studies assessing the value of the university admissions test (UAT) to predict academic performance at the end of a medical course were carried out on lecture-based medical courses. However, the association between performance in the UAT with academic achievement at the end of medical course in a problem-based learning (PBL) medical hybrid curriculum remains controversial. The aim of this study was to correlate marks in the UAT with those obtained in the Organized Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE), in the progress testing (PT), and in the final marks of the clerkship (FMC).

METHODS

We used data from 48 medical students. A single and a multiple dependency studies were performed to assess bivariate and multiple correlation between the UAT or the essay scores (dependent variables) and the OSCE, PT, and FMC (independent variables). Pearson test, multiple linear regression, and ANOVA tests were used and a p-value < 0.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

In the bivariate analysis, only the UAT and FMC marks were correlated (r=0.34; p=0.02). However, the multiple dependency study showed a moderate correlation among UAT, OSCE, PT, and FMC marks (r=0.46; p=0.01). No correlation was found between the essay scores and PT, FMC, and OSCE scores.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that UAT marks, but not essay scores, can predict academic achievement, particularly in terms of clinical competence (FMC) at the end of a medical course in a PBL hybrid curriculum.

Struggling with strugglers: using data from selection tools for early identification of medical students at risk of failure

BACKGROUND

Struggling medical students is an under-researched in medical education. It is known, however, that early identification is important for effective remediation. The aim of the study was to determine the predictive effect of medical school admission tools regarding whether a student will struggle academically.

METHODS

Data comprise 700 students from the University of New South Wales undergraduate medical program. The main outcome of interest was whether these students struggled during this 6-year program; they were classified to be struggling they failed any end-of-phase examination but still graduated from the program. Discriminate Function Analysis (DFA) assessed whether their pre-admission academic achievement, Undergraduate Medicine Admission Test (UMAT) and interview scores had predictive effect regarding likelihood to struggle.

RESULTS

A lower pre-admission academic achievement in the form of Australian Tertiary Admission Rank (ATAR) or Grade Point Average (GPA) were found to be the best positive predictors of whether a student was likely to struggle. Lower UMAT and poorer interview scores were found to have a comparatively much smaller predictive effect.

CONCLUSION

Although medical admission tests are widely used, medical school rarely use these data for educational purposes. The results of this study suggest admission test data can predict who among the admitted students is likely to struggle in the program. Educationally, this information is invaluable. These results indicate that pre-admission academic achievement can be used to predict which students are likely to struggle in an Australian undergraduate medicine program. Further research into predicting other types of struggling students as well as remediation methods are necessary.

What is the effect of secondary (high) schooling on subsequent medical school performance? A national, UK-based, cohort study

OBJECTIVES

University academic achievement may be inversely related to the performance of the secondary (high) school an entrant attended. Indeed, some medical schools already offer 'grade discounts' to applicants from less well-performing schools. However, evidence to guide such policies is lacking. In this study, we analyse a national dataset in order to understand the relationship between the two main predictors of medical school admission in the UK (prior educational attainment (PEA) and performance on the United Kingdom Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)) and subsequent undergraduate knowledge and skills-related outcomes analysed separately.

METHODS

The study was based on national selection data and linked medical school outcomes for knowledge and skills-based tests during the first five years of medical school. UKCAT scores and PEA grades were available for 2107 students enrolled at 18 medical schools. Models were developed to investigate the potential mediating role played by a student's previous secondary school's performance. Multilevel models were created to explore the influence of students' secondary schools on undergraduate achievement in medical school.

RESULTS

The ability of the UKCAT scores to predict undergraduate academic performance was significantly mediated by PEA in all five years of medical school. Undergraduate achievement was inversely related to secondary school-level performance. This effect waned over time and was less marked for skills, compared with undergraduate knowledge-based outcomes. Thus, the predictive value of secondary school grades was generally dependent on the secondary school in which they were obtained.

CONCLUSIONS

The UKCAT scores added some value, above and beyond secondary school achievement, in predicting undergraduate performance, especially in the later years of study. Importantly, the findings suggest that the academic entry criteria should be relaxed for candidates applying from the least well performing secondary schools. In the UK, this would translate into a decrease of approximately one to two A-level grades.