Reproductive skew theory unified: The general bordered tug-of-war model

Thirty years of conservation breeding: Assessing the genetic diversity of captive Livingstone's fruit bats

Fruit bats (genus Pteropus) are typically island-endemic species important in seed dispersal and reforestation that are vulnerable to increased extinction risk. An effective method of reducing extinction risk in vulnerable species that cannot be conserved in their native habitat is establishing an ex-situ captive breeding programme. Due to anthropogenic threats and low population numbers, in the early 1990s, a captive breeding programme was established at Jersey Zoo, British Isles, for Critically Endangered Livingstone's fruit bats (Pteropus livingstonii). Here we use six polymorphic microsatellite loci to assess genetic diversity in the captive breeding population of Livingstone's fruit bats (P. livingstonii), 30 years after the programme's establishment, investigating change over generations and comparing our findings with published data from the wild population. We found no significant difference between the genetic diversity in the captive and wild populations of Livingstone's fruit bats (P. livingstonii), in both expected heterozygosity and allelic richness. The captive population has retained a comparable level of genetic diversity to that documented in the wild, and there has been no significant decline in genetic diversity over the last 30 years. We advise that a full pedigree of the paternal lineage is created to improve the management of the captive breeding programme and further reduce the possibility of inbreeding. However, it appears that the captive breeding programme is currently effective at maintaining genetic diversity at levels comparable to those seen in the wild population, which suggests reintroductions could be viable if genetic diversity remains stable in captivity.

Social control is associated with increased reproductive skew in a wild mammal

In group-living species, reproductive variation among individuals of the same sex is widespread. By identifying the mechanisms underlying this reproductive skew, we gain fundamental insights into the evolution and maintenance of sociality. A common mechanism, social control, is typically studied by quantifying dominance, which is one of many attributes of sociality that describes how individuals exert influence on others and is an incomprehensive measure of social control as it accounts only for direct relationships. Here, we use the global reaching centrality (GRC), which quantifies the degree of hierarchy in a social network by accounting for both direct and indirect social relationships. Using a wild, free-living population of adult female yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris), we found a positive relationship between the reproductive skew index and GRC: more despotic social groups have higher reproductive skew. The GRC was stronger predictor for skew than traditional measures of social control (i.e. dominance). This allows deeper insights into the diverse ways individuals control other group members' reproduction, a core component in the evolution of sociality. Future studies of skew across taxa may profit by using more comprehensive, network-based measures of social control.

Group augmentation underlies the evolution of complex sociality in the face of environmental instability

Although kin selection is assumed to underlie the evolution of sociality, many vertebrates-including nearly half of all cooperatively breeding birds-form groups that also include unrelated individuals. Theory predicts that despite reducing kin structure, immigration of unrelated individuals into groups can provide direct, group augmentation benefits, particularly when offspring recruitment is insufficient for group persistence. Using population dynamic modeling and analysis of long-term data, we provide clear empirical evidence of group augmentation benefits favoring the evolution and maintenance of complex societies with low kin structure and multiple reproductives. We show that in the superb starling (Lamprotornis superbus)-a plural cooperative breeder that forms large groups with multiple breeding pairs, and related and unrelated nonbreeders of both sexes-offspring recruitment alone cannot prevent group extinction, especially in smaller groups. Further, smaller groups, which stand to benefit more from immigration, exhibit lower reproductive skew for immigrants, suggesting that reproductive opportunities as joining incentives lead to plural breeding. Yet, despite a greater likelihood of becoming a breeder in smaller groups, immigrants are more likely to join larger groups where they experience increased survivorship and greater reproductive success as breeders. Moreover, immigrants form additional breeding pairs, increasing future offspring recruitment into the group and guarding against complete reproductive failure in the face of environmental instability and high nest predation. Thus, plural breeding likely evolves because the benefits of group augmentation by immigrants generate a positive feedback loop that maintains societies with low and mixed kinship, large group sizes, and multiple reproductives.

From inter-group conflict to inter-group cooperation: insights from social insects

The conflict between social groups is widespread, often imposing significant costs across multiple groups. The social insects make an ideal system for investigating inter-group relationships, because their interaction types span the full harming-helping continuum, from aggressive conflict, to mutual tolerance, to cooperation between spatially separate groups. Here we review inter-group conflict in the social insects and the various means by which they reduce the costs of conflict, including individual or colony-level avoidance, ritualistic behaviours and even group fusion. At the opposite extreme of the harming-helping continuum, social insect groups may peacefully exchange resources and thus cooperate between groups in a manner rare outside human societies. We discuss the role of population viscosity in favouring inter-group cooperation. We present a model encompassing intra- and inter-group interactions, and local and long-distance dispersal. We show that in this multi-level population structure, the increased likelihood of cooperative partners being kin is balanced by increased kin competition, such that neither cooperation (helping) nor conflict (harming) is favoured. This model provides a baseline context in which other intra- and inter-group processes act, tipping the balance toward or away from conflict. We discuss future directions for research into the ecological factors shaping the evolution of inter-group interactions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Intergroup conflict across taxa'.

The Marginal Utility of Inequality : A Global Examination across Ethnographic Societies

Despite decades of research, we still lack a clear explanation for the emergence and persistence of inequality. Here we propose and evaluate a marginal utility of inequality hypothesis that nominates circumscription and environmental heterogeneity as independent, necessary conditions for the emergence of intragroup material inequality. After coupling the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample (SCCS) with newly generated data from remote sensing, we test predictions derived from this hypothesis using a multivariate generalized additive model that accounts for spatial and historical dependence as well as subsistence mode. Our analyses show that the probability a society will be stratified increases significantly as a function of proxies of environmental heterogeneity and environmental circumscription. This supports the hypothesis that increasing environmental heterogeneity and circumscription drives the emergence and persistence of inequality among documented societies across the globe. We demonstrate how environmental heterogeneity and circumscription produce situations that limit individuals' options so that some may find it in their best interest to give up some autonomy for material gain, while others may find it in their best interest to give up some material resources for another individual's time or deference. These results support the marginal utility of inequality framework and enable future explorations of the ecological conditions that facilitate the emergence of intragroup inequality through time and across the globe.

Social rank modulates how environmental quality influences cooperation and conflict within animal societies

Although dominance hierarchies occur in most societies, our understanding of how these power structures influence individual investment in cooperative and competitive behaviours remains elusive. Both conflict and cooperation in animal societies are often environmentally regulated, yet how individuals alter their cooperative and competitive investments as environmental quality changes remain unclear. Using game theoretic modelling, we predict that individuals of all ranks will invest more in cooperation and less in social conflict in harsh environments than individuals of the same ranks in benign environments. Counterintuitively, low-ranking subordinates should increase their investment in cooperation proportionally more than high-ranking dominants, suggesting that subordinates contribute relatively more when facing environmental challenges. We then test and confirm these predictions experimentally using the Asian burying beetle Nicrophorus nepalensis. Ultimately, we demonstrate how social rank modulates the relationships between environmental quality and cooperative and competitive behaviours, a topic crucial for understanding the evolution of complex societies.

Evolutionarily stable investments in recognition systems explain patterns of discrimination failure and success

Many animals are able to perform recognition feats that astound us-such as a rodent recognizing kin it has never met. Yet in other contexts, animals appear clueless as when reed warblers rear cuckoo chicks that bear no resemblance to their own species. Failures of recognition when it would seem adaptive have been especially puzzling. Here, we present a simple tug-of-war game theory model examining how individuals should optimally invest in affecting the accuracy of discrimination between desirable and undesirable recipients. In the game, discriminating individuals (operators) and desirable and undesirable recipients (targets and mimics, respectively) can all invest effort into their own preferred outcome. We demonstrate that stable inaccurate recognition will arise when undesirable recipients have large fitness gains from inaccurate recognition relative to the pay-offs that the other two parties receive from accurate recognition. The probability of accurate recognition is often determined by just the relative pay-offs to the desirable and undesirable recipients, rather than to the discriminator. Our results provide a new lens on long-standing puzzles including a lack of nepotism in social insect colonies, tolerance of brood parasites and male birds caring for extra-pair young in their nests, which our model suggests should often lack accurate discrimination. This article is part of the theme issue 'Signal detection theory in recognition systems: from evolving models to experimental tests'.

Long-term evolutionary conflict, Sisyphean arms races, and power in Fisher's geometric model

Evolutionary conflict and arms races are important drivers of evolution in nature. During arms races, new abilities in one party select for counterabilities in the second party. This process can repeat and lead to successive fixations of novel mutations, without a long-term increase in fitness. Models of co-evolution rarely address successive fixations, and one of the main models that use successive fixations-Fisher's geometric model-does not address co-evolution. We address this gap by expanding Fisher's geometric model to the evolution of joint phenotypes that are affected by two parties, such as probability of infection of a host by a pathogen. The model confirms important intuitions and offers some new insights. Conflict can lead to long-term Sisyphean arms races, where parties continue to climb toward their fitness peaks, but are dragged back down by their opponents. This results in far more adaptive evolution compared to the standard geometric model. It also results in fixation of mutations of larger effect, with the important implication that the common modeling assumption of small mutations will apply less often under conflict. Even in comparison with random abiotic change of the same magnitude, evolution under conflict results in greater distances from the optimum, lower fitness, and more fixations, but surprisingly, not larger fixed mutations. We also show how asymmetries in selection strength, mutation size, and mutation input allow one party to win over another. However, winning abilities come with diminishing returns, helping to keep weaker parties in the game.

Reproductive tolerance in male primates: Old paradigms and new evidence

Within social groups of primates, males commonly compete over reproduction, but they may also rely on cooperation with other males. Theory suggests that it may be adaptive for male primates to tolerate some reproduction by other males if reproductive tolerance fosters cooperation, particularly that dominant males yield so-called reproductive concessions to subordinates to entice their cooperation. We review four recent studies that claimed to have found evidence for reproductive concessions or similar forms of reproductive tolerance. However, upon critical reevaluation of their results, no study provides conclusive support for reproductive concessions as predicted by theoretical models. Yet two studies demonstrated a form of reproductive tolerance that cannot be explained by any of the existing models, and that seems to have evolved only in multi-male, multi-female societies with diverse strategic options for males. Our article provides guidance how to study this form of reproductive tolerance in the absence of a unifying model.

Sex differences in the drivers of reproductive skew in a cooperative breeder

Many cooperatively breeding societies are characterized by high reproductive skew, such that some socially dominant individuals breed, while socially subordinate individuals provide help. Inbreeding avoidance serves as a source of reproductive skew in many high-skew societies, but few empirical studies have examined sources of skew operating alongside inbreeding avoidance or compared individual attempts to reproduce (reproductive competition) with individual reproductive success. Here, we use long-term genetic and observational data to examine factors affecting reproductive skew in the high-skew cooperatively breeding southern pied babbler (Turdoides bicolor). When subordinates can breed, skew remains high, suggesting factors additional to inbreeding avoidance drive skew. Subordinate females are more likely to compete to breed when older or when ecological constraints on dispersal are high, but heavy subordinate females are more likely to successfully breed. Subordinate males are more likely to compete when they are older, during high ecological constraints, or when they are related to the dominant male, but only the presence of within-group unrelated subordinate females predicts subordinate male breeding success. Reproductive skew is not driven by reproductive effort, but by forces such as intrinsic physical limitations and intrasexual conflict (for females) or female mate choice, male mate-guarding and potentially reproductive restraint (for males). Ecological conditions or "outside options" affect the occurrence of reproductive conflict, supporting predictions of recent synthetic skew models. Inbreeding avoidance together with competition for access to reproduction may generate high skew in animal societies, and disparate processes may be operating to maintain male vs. female reproductive skew in the same species.

What do territory owners defend against?

Theoretical research on evolutionary aspects of territoriality has a long history. Existing studies, however, differ widely in modelling approach and research question. A generalized view on the evolution of territoriality is accordingly still missing. In this review, we show that territorial conflicts can be classified into qualitatively distinct types according to what mode of access to a territory which competitor attempts to gain. We argue that many of the inconsistencies between existing studies can be traced back to the fact that, while using the same terminology, different instances of these types of conflicts have been investigated. We discuss the connections of each type of conflict to existing research within the wider area of animal conflicts. We conclude that a clear conceptual separation of different types of territorial conflicts is helpful but that a more general theory of territoriality has to account for interdependencies between them and that a more mechanistic approach to modelling territoriality is needed.

A Game-Theoretical Winner and Loser Model of Dominance Hierarchy Formation

Many animals spend large parts of their lives in groups. Within such groups, they need to find efficient ways of dividing available resources between them. This is often achieved by means of a dominance hierarchy, which in its most extreme linear form allocates a strict priority order to the individuals. Once a hierarchy is formed, it is often stable over long periods, but the formation of hierarchies among individuals with little or no knowledge of each other can involve aggressive contests. The outcome of such contests can have significant effects on later contests, with previous winners more likely to win (winner effects) and previous losers more likely to lose (loser effects). This scenario has been modelled by a number of authors, in particular by Dugatkin. In his model, individuals engage in aggressive contests if the assessment of their fighting ability relative to their opponent is above a threshold [Formula: see text]. Here we present a model where each individual can choose its own value [Formula: see text]. This enables us to address questions such as how aggressive should individuals be in order to take up one of the first places in the hierarchy? We find that a unique strategy evolves, as opposed to a mixture of strategies. Thus, in any scenario there exists a unique best level of aggression, and individuals should not switch between strategies. We find that for optimal strategy choice, the hierarchy forms quickly, after which there are no mutually aggressive contests.

Social status drives social relationships in groups of unrelated female rhesus macaques

Strong social relationships confer health and fitness benefits in a number of species, motivating the need to understand the processes through which they arise. In female cercopithecine primates, both kinship and dominance rank are thought to influence rates of affiliative behaviour and social partner preference. Teasing apart the relative importance of these factors has been challenging, however, as female kin often occupy similar positions in the dominance hierarchy. Here, we isolated the specific effects of rank on social relationships in female rhesus macaques by analysing grooming patterns in 18 social groups that did not contain close relatives, and in which dominance ranks were experimentally randomized. We found that grooming was asymmetrically directed towards higher-ranking females and that grooming bouts temporarily decreased the likelihood of aggression between grooming partners, supporting the idea that grooming is associated with social tolerance. Even in the absence of kin, females formed the strongest grooming relationships with females adjacent to them in rank, a pattern that was strongest for the highest-ranking females. Using simulations, we show that three rules for allocating grooming based on dominance rank recapitulated most of the relationships we observed. Finally, we evaluated whether a female's tendency to engage in grooming behaviour was stable across time and social setting. We found that one measure, the rate of grooming females provided to others (but not the rate of grooming females received), exhibited modest stability after accounting for the primary effect of dominance rank. Together, our findings indicate that dominance rank has strong effects on social relationships in the absence of kin, suggesting the importance of considering social status and social connectedness jointly when investigating their health and fitness consequences.

Asymmetry within social groups: division of labour and intergroup competition

Social animals vary in their ability to compete with group members over shared resources and also vary in their cooperative efforts to produce these resources. Competition among groups can promote within-group cooperation, but many existing models of intergroup cooperation do not explicitly account for observations that group members invest differentially in cooperation and that there are often within-group competitive or power asymmetries. We present a game theoretic model of intergroup competition that investigates how such asymmetries affect within-group cooperation. In this model, group members adopt one of two roles, with relative competitive efficiency and the number of individuals varying between roles. Players in each role make simultaneous, coevolving decisions. The model predicts that although intergroup competition increases cooperative contributions to group resources by both roles, contributions are predominantly from individuals in the less competitively efficient role, whereas individuals in the more competitively efficient role generally gain the larger share of these resources. When asymmetry in relative competitive efficiency is greater, a group's per capita cooperation (averaged across both roles) is higher, due to increased cooperation from the competitively inferior individuals. For extreme asymmetry in relative competitive efficiency, per capita cooperation is highest in groups with a single competitively superior individual and many competitively inferior individuals, because the latter acquiesce and invest in cooperation rather than within-group competition. These predictions are consistent with observed features of many societies, such as monogynous Hymenoptera with many workers and caste dimorphism.

Stable eusociality via maternal manipulation when resistance is costless

In many eusocial species, queens use pheromones to influence offspring to express worker phenotypes. Although evidence suggests that queen pheromones are honest signals of the queen's reproductive health, here I show that queen's honest signalling can result from ancestral maternal manipulation. I develop a mathematical model to study the coevolution of maternal manipulation, offspring resistance to manipulation and maternal resource allocation. I assume that (i) maternal manipulation causes offspring to be workers against offspring's interests; (ii) offspring can resist at no direct cost, as is thought to be the case with pheromonal manipulation; and (iii) the mother chooses how much resource to allocate to fertility and maternal care. In the coevolution of these traits, I find that maternal care decreases, thereby increasing the benefit that offspring obtain from help, which in the long run eliminates selection for resistance. Consequently, ancestral maternal manipulation yields stable eusociality despite costless resistance. Additionally, ancestral manipulation in the long run becomes honest signalling that induces offspring to help. These results indicate that both eusociality and its commonly associated queen honest signalling can be likely to originate from ancestral manipulation.

Reduction of foraging work and cooperative breeding

Using simple stochastic models, we discuss how cooperative breeders, especially wasps and bees, can improve their productivity by reducing foraging work. In a harsh environment, where foraging is the main cause of mortality, such breeders achieve greater productivity by reducing their foraging effort below full capacity, and they may thrive by adopting cooperative breeding. This could prevent the population extinction of cooperative breeders under conditions where a population of lone breeders cannot be maintained.

Group size and social conflict in complex societies

Conflicts of interest over resources or reproduction among individuals in a social group have long been considered to result in automatic and universal costs to group living. However, exploring how social conflict varies with group size has produced mixed empirical results. Here we develop a model that generates alternative predictions for how social conflict should vary with group size depending on the type of benefits gained from being in a social group. We show that a positive relationship between social conflict and group size is favored when groups form primarily for the benefits of sociality but not when groups form mainly for accessing group-defended resources. Thus, increased social conflict in animal societies should not be viewed as an automatic cost of larger social groups. Instead, studying the relationship between social conflict and the types of grouping benefits will be crucial for understanding the evolution of complex societies.

Longevity suppresses conflict in animal societies

Models of social conflict in animal societies generally assume that within-group conflict reduces the value of a communal resource. For many animals, however, the primary cost of conflict is increased mortality. We develop a simple inclusive fitness model of social conflict that takes this cost into account. We show that longevity substantially reduces the level of within-group conflict, which can lead to the evolution of peaceful animal societies if relatedness among group members is high. By contrast, peaceful outcomes are never possible in models where the primary cost of social conflict is resource depletion. Incorporating mortality costs into models of social conflict can explain why many animal societies are so remarkably peaceful despite great potential for conflict.

Fundamental freedoms and the psychology of threat, bargaining, and inequality

Van de Vliert's findings may be explained by the psychology of threat and bargaining. Poor people facing extreme threats must cope by surrendering individual freedom in service of shared group needs. Wealthier people are more able to flee from threats and/or resist authoritarianism, so their leaders must concede greater freedom. Incorporating these factors (plus inequality) can sharpen researchers' predictions.

Evolution of manipulated behavior

Many social behaviors are triggered by social partners. For example, cells in a multicellular organism often become soma via extrinsically regulated differentiation, while individuals in a eusocial colony often become helpers via extrinsic caste determination. One explanation for social triggering is that it informs when it is beneficial to express the behavior. Alternatively, social triggering can represent manipulation where social partners partially or completely control the focal individual's behavior. For instance, caste determination in primitively eusocial taxa is typically accomplished via differential feeding or dominance hierarchies, suggesting some manipulation. However, selection would favor resistance if manipulation is detrimental to manipulated parties, and the outcome of the manipulation conflict remains intricate. We analyze the coevolution of manipulation and resistance in a simple but general setting. We show that, despite possible resistance, manipulated behavior can be established under less stringent conditions than spontaneous (i.e., nonmanipulated) behavior because of resistance costs. The existence of this advantage might explain why primitive eusocial behavior tends to be triggered socially and coercively. We provide a simple condition for the advantage of manipulated behavior that may help infer whether a socially triggered behavior is manipulated. We illustrate our analysis with a hypothetical example of maternal manipulation relevant to primitive eusociality.

Brood size matching: a novel perspective on predator dilution

A primary benefit of grouping is diluting the individual risk of attack by predators. However, the fact that groups are formed not always by solitary adults but also by subgroups (e.g., families) has been overlooked. The subgroup-specific benefit of predator dilution depends on its relative contribution to total group size. Therefore, the willingness of a subgroup to merge with others should increase the less it contributes to total group size, but the conflicting preferences of partners may result in the preferential merger of similar-sized subgroups. Here, we evaluate how the proportional contribution of subgroups to diluting risk affects group formation. We generate predictions using a bidding game over parental care and test them using data on common eiders (Somateria mollissima), in which females with variable-sized broods may form brood-rearing coalitions. The predictions (1) that size-matched subgroups should have a higher propensity to merge, (2) that predation should increase group formation propensity, and (3) that increased bargaining power, as proxied by female body condition, should increase the time needed to establish partnerships were all supported. Partners do negotiate over their relative contributions to predator dilution, accepting or rejecting partnerships on the basis of this criterion. Our results show that consideration of the size of subgroups before merger is critical in understanding the process of group formation under the threat of predation.

Concessions of an alpha male? Cooperative defence and shared reproduction in multi-male primate groups

By living in social groups with potential competitors, animals forgo monopolizing access to resources. Consequently, debate continues over how selection might favour sociality among competitors. For example, several models exist to account for the evolution of shared reproduction in groups. The 'concession model' hypothesizes that dominant reproducers benefit from the presence of subordinates, and hence tolerate some reproduction by subordinates. This mutual benefit to both dominants and subordinates may provide a foundation for the formation of social groups in which multiple members reproduce--a necessary step in the evolution of cooperation. To date, however, the concession model has received virtually no support in vertebrates. Instead, the vast majority of vertebrate data support 'limited control models', which posit that dominant reproducers are simply unable to prevent subordinates from reproducing. Here we present the most comprehensive evidence to date in support of the concession model in a vertebrate. We examined natural variation in the number of adult males in gelada (Theropithecus gelada) reproductive units to assess the extent of reproductive skew in multi-male units. Dominant ('leader') males in units that also had subordinate ('follower') males had a 30 per cent longer tenure than leaders in units that did not have followers, mainly because followers actively defended the group against potential immigrants. Follower males also obtained a small amount of reproduction in the unit, which may have functioned as a concession in return for defending the unit. These results suggest that dominants and subordinates may engage in mutually beneficial reproductive transactions, thus favouring male-male tolerance and cooperation.

Parental care, cost of reproduction and reproductive skew: a general costly young model

Understanding the mechanisms by which animals resolve conflicts of interest is the key to understanding the basis of cooperation in social species. Conflict over reproductive portioning is the critical type of conflict among cooperative breeders. The costly young model represents an important, but underappreciated, idea about how an individual's intrinsic condition and cost of reproduction should affect the resolution of conflict over the distribution of reproduction within a cooperatively breeding group. However, dominant control in various forms and fixed parental care (offspring fitness dependent solely on total brood size) are assumed in previous versions of costly young models. Here, we develop a general costly young model by relaxing the restrictive assumptions of existing models. Our results show that (1) when the complete-control assumption is relaxed, the costly young model behaves very differently from the original model, and (2) when the fixed parental care assumption is relaxed, the costly young-costly care model displays similar predictions to the tug-of-war model, although the underlying mechanisms causing these similar patterns are different. These results, we believe, help simplify the seemingly divergent predictions of different reproductive skew models and highlight the importance of studying the group members' intrinsic conditions, costs of producing young, and costs of parental care for understanding breeding conflict resolution in cooperatively breeding animals.

Adult predation risk drives shifts in parental care strategies: a long-term study

1. Grouping provides antipredatory benefits, and therefore aggregation tendencies increase under heightened predation risk. In socially breeding groups, however, conflicts over reproductive shares or safety tend to disintegrate groups. Group formation thereby involves a balance between the antipredatory benefits of aggregation and the destabilizing effect of reproductive conflict. 2. We study the grouping behaviour of a facultatively social precocial sea duck with uniparental female care, the eider (Somateria mollissima Linnaeus). Females tend their young solitarily or in groups of 2-5 females. Here, we focus on the effect predation on adults has on group-formation decisions of brood-caring females. 3. By modifying an existing bidding game over care, we model the effects of predation risk on the width of the window of selfishness, which delimits the reproductive sharing allowing cooperation within brood-rearing coalitions, and generate predictions about the relative frequencies of solitary versus cooperative parental care modes. Furthermore, we model the dilution effect as a function of female group size and predation risk. 4. The window of selfishness widens with increasing predation risk, and the dilution of predation risk increases with both female group size and increasing predation risk, yielding the following predictions: (i) cooperative brood care becomes more prevalent and, conversely, solitary brood care less prevalent under heightened predation risk and (ii) group sizes increase concomitantly. 5. We tested these predictions using 13 years of data on female grouping decisions and annual predation rates, while controlling for the potentially confounding effect of female body condition. 6. Our data supported both predictions, where heightened predation risk of nesting females, but not changes in their condition, increased the relative frequency of cooperative brood care. Increased female nesting mortality also resulted in larger groups of cooperative females. 7. The predation risk of incubating females has long-term implications for later parental care decisions. We discuss the potential consequences of predation-induced shifts in group size on per capita fitness and population-wide productivity.