Use of natural experimental studies to evaluate 20mph speed limits in two major UK cities

The tales of two cities: use of evidence for introducing 20 miles per hour speed limits in Edinburgh and Belfast (United Kingdom)

BACKGROUND

In 2016, large-scale 20 miles per hour speed limits were introduced in the United Kingdom cities of Edinburgh and Belfast. This paper investigates the role that scientific evidence played in the policy decisions to implement lower speed limits in the two cities.

METHODS

Using a qualitative case study design, we undertook content analysis of a range of documents to explore and describe the evolution of the two schemes and the ways in which evidence informed decision-making. In total, we identified 16 documents for Edinburgh, published between 2006 and 2016, and 19 documents for Belfast, published between 2002 and 2016.

FINDINGS

In both cities, evidence on speed, collisions and casualties was important for initiating discussions on large-scale 20 mph policies. However, the narrative shifted over time to the idea that 20 mph would contribute to a wider range of aspirations, none of which were firmly grounded in evidence, but may have helped to neutralize opposing discourses.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The relationship between evidence and decision-making in Edinburgh and Belfast was neither simple nor linear. Widening of the narrative appears to have helped to frame the idea in such a way that it had broad acceptability, without which there would have been no implementation, and probably a lot more push back from vested interests and communities than there was.

Public attitudes to, and perceived impacts of 20mph (32km/h) speed limits in Edinburgh: an exploratory study using the Speed Limits Perceptions Survey (SLiPS)

Between 2016 and 2018 a policy was implemented to increase the proportion of 20mph (32 km/h) streets in Edinburgh, UK from approximately 50% to 80%, providing the opportunity to evaluate how behaviour and public perceptions change over time. This is important as negative public responses have been reported to limit the implementation of transport policies and may reduce the effectiveness of the policy. The Speed Limits Perception Survey (SLiPS) was developed to assess changes in public perceptions from baseline to 6 and 12 months post-implementation. We collected 3,485 individual responses to the survey, 64.6% (n=2,253) of which included complete perceptions data. Using exploratory factor analysis, the following perception factors were identified: i) Detraction and resistance, ii) Support, iii) Rule following, iv) Child safety, and v) Walking safety. Following the 20mph implementation at 6-12 months: Support (ii) and Rule following (iii) had increased; Detraction and resistance (i) had decreased; and Child safety (iv) and Walking safety (v) had not changed significantly. These findings indicate that the public in Edinburgh became more positive towards the policy once it was implemented. However, more extensive policy or ongoing communication of the safety benefits of 20mph limits are needed to increase perceptions of safety that might lead to increased walking and cycling. Future research should aim to understand how those implementing speed limit interventions can positively influence public perceptions and how public perceptions about speed limits influence behaviour.

Evaluating the citywide Edinburgh 20mph speed limit intervention effects on traffic speed and volume: A pre-post observational evaluation

OBJECTIVES

Traffic speed is important to public health as it is a major contributory factor to collision risk and casualty severity. 20mph (32km/h) speed limit interventions are an increasingly common approach to address this transport and health challenge, but a more developed evidence base is needed to understand their effects. This study describes the changes in traffic speed and traffic volume in the City of Edinburgh, pre- and 12 months post-implementation of phased city-wide 20mph speed limits from 2016-2018.

METHODS

The City of Edinburgh Council collected speed and volume data across one full week (24 hours a day) pre- and post-20mph speed limits for 66 streets. The pre- and post-speed limit intervention data were compared using measures of central tendency, dispersion, and basic t-tests. The changes were assessed at different aggregations and evaluated for statistical significance (alpha = 0.05). A mixed effects model was used to model speed reduction, in the presence of key variables such as baseline traffic speed and time of day.

RESULTS

City-wide, a statistically significant reduction in mean speed of 1.34mph (95% CI 0.95 to 1.72) was observed at 12 months post-implementation, representing a 5.7% reduction. Reductions in speed were observed throughout the day and across the week, and larger reductions in speed were observed on roads with higher initial speeds. Mean 7-day volume of traffic was found to be lower by 86 vehicles (95% CI: -112 to 286) representing a reduction of 2.4% across the city of Edinburgh (p = 0.39) but with the direction of effect uncertain.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of the city-wide 20mph speed limit intervention was associated with meaningful reductions in traffic speeds but not volume. The reduction observed in road traffic speed may act as a mechanism to lessen the frequency and severity of collisions and casualties, increase road safety, and improve liveability.

Tweeting about twenty: an analysis of interest, public sentiments and opinion about 20mph speed restrictions in two UK cities

Background

Twenty miles per hour (20mph) speed limits (equivalent to roughly 30kmh) have become part of public health policies to reduce urban road collisions and casualties, especially in Western countries. Public opinion plays a crucial role in opposition to and acceptance of policies that are advocated for improving public health. Twenty miles per hour speed limit policies were implemented in Edinburgh and Belfast from 2016 to 2018. In this paper, we extract public opinion and sentiments expressed about the new 20mph speed limits in those cities using publicly available Twitter data.

Methods

We analysed public sentiments from Twitter data and classified the public comments in plain English into the categories ‘positive’, ‘neutral’, and ‘negative’. We also explored the frequency and sources of the tweets.

Results

The total volume of tweets was higher for Edinburgh than for Belfast, but the volume of tweets followed a similar pattern, peaking around 2016, which is when the schemes were implemented. Overall, the tone of the tweets was positive or neutral towards the implementation of the speed limit policies. This finding was surprising as there is a perception among policymakers that there would have been public backlash against these sorts of policy changes. The commonly used hashtags focused largely on road safety and other potential benefits, for example to air pollution.

Conclusions

Overall, public attitudes towards the policies were positive, thus policymakers should be less anxious about potential public backlash when considering the scale-up of 20mph speed restrictions.