Modern data sources and techniques for analysis and forecast of road accidents: A review

Improving traffic accident severity prediction using MobileNet transfer learning model and SHAP XAI technique

Traffic accidents remain a leading cause of fatalities, injuries, and significant disruptions on highways. Comprehending the contributing factors to these occurrences is paramount in enhancing safety on road networks. Recent studies have demonstrated the utility of predictive modeling in gaining insights into the factors that precipitate accidents. However, there has been a dearth of focus on explaining the inner workings of complex machine learning and deep learning models and the manner in which various features influence accident prediction models. As a result, there is a risk that these models may be seen as black boxes, and their findings may not be fully trusted by stakeholders. The main objective of this study is to create predictive models using various transfer learning techniques and to provide insights into the most impactful factors using Shapley values. To predict the severity of injuries in accidents, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Residual Networks (ResNet), EfficientNetB4, InceptionV3, Extreme Inception (Xception), and MobileNet are employed. Among the models, the MobileNet showed the highest results with 98.17% accuracy. Additionally, by understanding how different features affect accident prediction models, researchers can gain a deeper understanding of the factors that contribute to accidents and develop more effective interventions to prevent them.

Different ways… same message? Road safety-targeted communication strategies in Spain over 62 years (1960-2021)

Among the most generalised preventive measures against traffic crashes, advertisements and broadcast campaigns in the media have stood out over the last six decades. The core aim of this paper is to describe the evolution of the subject matter and typology of road safety-related advertisements used in Spain during 62 years (1960-2021). Thus, this paper assesses their role in reducing road fatalities, while keeping in mind the potential effect of the many other road safety-related preventive measures carried out in the country during this period. The results of this study allow us to target five key time periods, all of them with clear particular communication strategies to be differentiated, using specific types of advertisements and informative, persuasive, emotional, and humorous techniques (among others) to reach the audience. Additionally, some key practical implications and guidelines are provided.

Comparing Resampling Algorithms and Classifiers for Modeling Traffic Risk Prediction

Road infrastructure has significant effects on road traffic safety and needs further examination. In terms of traffic crash prediction, recent studies have started to develop deep learning classification algorithms. However, given the uncertainty of traffic crashes, predicting the traffic risk potential of different road sections remains a challenge. To bridge this knowledge gap, this study investigated a real-world expressway and collected its traffic crash data between 2013 and 2020. Then, according to the time-spatial density ratio (Pts), road sections were assigned into three classes corresponding to low, medium, and high risk levels of traffic. Next, different classifiers were compared that were trained using the transformed and resampled feature data to construct a traffic crash risk prediction model. Last, but not least, partial dependence plots (PDPs) were employed to interpret the results and analyze the importance of individual features describing the geometry, pavement, structure, and weather conditions. The results showed that a variety of data balancing algorithms improved the performance of the classifiers, the ensemble classifier superseded the others in terms of the performance metrics, and the combined SMOTEENN and random forest algorithms improved the classification accuracy the most. In the future, the proposed traffic crash risk prediction method will be tested in more road maintenance and design safety assessment scenarios.

Deep Learning Ensemble Model for the Prediction of Traffic Accidents Using Social Media Data

Traffic accidents are a major concern worldwide, since they have a significant impact on people’s safety, health, and well-being, and thus, they constitute an important field of research on the use of state-of-the-art techniques and algorithms to analyze and predict them. The study of traffic accidents has been conducted using the information published by traffic entities and road police forces, but thanks to the ubiquity and availability of social media platforms, it is possible to have detailed and real-time information about road accidents in a given region, which allows for detailed studies that include unrecorded road accident events. The focus of this paper is to propose a model to predict traffic accidents using information gathered from social media and open data, applying an ensemble Deep Learning Model, composed of Gated Recurrent Units and Convolutional Neural Networks. The results obtained are compared with baseline algorithms and results published by other researchers. The results show promising outcomes, indicating that in the context of the problem, the proposed ensemble Deep Learning model outperforms the baseline algorithms and other Deep Learning models reported by literature. The information provided by the model can be valuable for traffic control agencies to plan road accident prevention activities.

SARIMA Modelling Approach for Forecasting of Traffic Accidents

To achieve greater sustainability of the traffic system, the trend of traffic accidents in road traffic was analysed. Injuries from traffic accidents are among the leading factors in the suffering of people around the world. Injuries from road traffic accidents are predicted to be the third leading factor contributing to human deaths. Road traffic accidents have decreased in most countries during the last decade because of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020. The main reasons behind the reduction of traffic accidents are improvements in the construction of vehicles and roads, the training and education of drivers, and advances in medical technology and medical care. The primary objective of this paper is to investigate the pattern in the time series of traffic accidents in the city of Belgrade. Time series have been analysed using exploratory data analysis to describe and understand the data, the method of regression and the Box–Jenkins seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA). The study found that the time series has a pronounced seasonal character. The model presented in the paper has a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 5.22% and can be seen as an indicator that the prognosis is acceptably accurate. The forecasting, in the context of number of a traffic accidents, may be a strategy to achieve different goals such as traffic safety campaigns, traffic safety strategies and action plans to achieve the objectives defined in traffic safety strategies.

Identification and analysis of offenders causing hit and run accidents using classification algorithms

Hit-and-run crashes are significant concern for many countries. Due to lack of information of offending vehicles it is difficult to understand dynamics of these crashes to have a prevention plan. The paper aims to identify the impacting vehicle in hit-and-run crashes. We studied fatal road crashes of New Delhi for eleven years (2006-2016) and found that approximately 40% fatal crashes are hit-and-run with unknown impacting vehicles. We proposed a framework using eleven different machine learning-based classification algorithms - Logistic-Regression, KNN, SVM-Linear and RBF-Kernel, Naïve-Bayes, Random-Forest, DecisionTree, AdaBoost, Multilayer-Perceptron, CART and Linear-Discriminant-Analysis. We found SVM-linear-kernel gave best results. Results reveal that cars, buses, and heavy vehicles are involved vehicles in hit-and-run crashes. Buses were primary cause leading to 39% of hit-and-run during 2006-2009 thereafter cars increased drastically. Our framework is robust and scalable to any city. The outcomes provide inputs to traffic engineers for better policy prescription and road user safety.

A literature review of machine learning algorithms for crash injury severity prediction

INTRODUCTION

Road traffic crashes represent a major public health concern, so it is of significant importance to understand the factors associated with the increase of injury severity of its interveners when involved in a road crash. Determining such factors is essential to help decision making in road safety management, improving road safety, and reducing the severity of future crashes.

METHOD

This paper presents a recent literature review of the methods that have been applied to road crash injury severity modeling. It includes 56 studies from 2001 to 2021 that consider more than 20 different statistical or machine learning techniques.

RESULTS

Random Forest was the algorithm with the best results, achieving the best performance in 70% of the times that it was applied and in 29% of all studies. Support Vector Machine and Decision Tree achieved the best performance in 53% and 31% of the times and in 16% and 14% of all studies, respectively. Bayesian Networks and K-Nearest Neighbors achieved the best performance in 67% and 40% of the times that were used but only achieved the best performance in 4% and 7% of all the studies analyzed, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

At this point, Random Forest revealed to be a good approach for road traffic crash injury severity prediction followed by Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and K-Nearest Neighbor. However, there is still a lot of room in this area to explore other techniques that can best suit this purpose as not only the model's performance should be considered but also causality issues, unobserved heterogeneity, and temporal instability. Practical Applications: This review enables researchers to understand the recent techniques applied in the analysis of injury severity modeling, and the ones that achieved the best performance results. Based on the reviewed studies, challenges and future research directions are presented.

Comparative Study of Machine Learning Classifiers for Modelling Road Traffic Accidents

Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are a major cause of injuries and fatalities worldwide. In recent years, there has been a growing global interest in analysing RTAs, specifically concerned with analysing and modelling accident data to better understand and assess the causes and effects of accidents. This study analysed the performance of widely used machine learning classifiers using a real-life RTA dataset from Gauteng, South Africa. The study aimed to assess prediction model designs for RTAs to assist transport authorities and policymakers. It considered classifiers such as naïve Bayes, logistic regression, k-nearest neighbour, AdaBoost, support vector machine, random forest, and five missing data methods. These classifiers were evaluated using five evaluation metrics: accuracy, root-mean-square error, precision, recall, and receiver operating characteristic curves. Furthermore, the assessment involved parameter adjustment and incorporated dimensionality reduction techniques. The empirical results and analyses show that the RF classifier, combined with multiple imputations by chained equations, yielded the best performance when compared with the other combinations.

A Bibliometric Analysis and Benchmark of Machine Learning and AutoML in Crash Severity Prediction: The Case Study of Three Colombian Cities

Traffic accidents are of worldwide concern, as they are one of the leading causes of death globally. One policy designed to cope with them is the design and deployment of road safety systems. These aim to predict crashes based on historical records, provided by new Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, to enhance traffic flow management and promote safer roads. Increasing data availability has helped machine learning (ML) to address the prediction of crashes and their severity. The literature reports numerous contributions regarding survey papers, experimental comparisons of various techniques, and the design of new methods at the point where crash severity prediction (CSP) and ML converge. Despite such progress, and as far as we know, there are no comprehensive research articles that theoretically and practically approach the model selection problem (MSP) in CSP. Thus, this paper introduces a bibliometric analysis and experimental benchmark of ML and automated machine learning (AutoML) as a suitable approach to automatically address the MSP in CSP. Firstly, 2318 bibliographic references were consulted to identify relevant authors, trending topics, keywords evolution, and the most common ML methods used in related-case studies, which revealed an opportunity for the use AutoML in the transportation field. Then, we compared AutoML (AutoGluon, Auto-sklearn, TPOT) and ML (CatBoost, Decision Tree, Extra Trees, Gradient Boosting, Gaussian Naive Bayes, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Random Forest) methods in three case studies using open data portals belonging to the cities of Medellín, Bogotá, and Bucaramanga in Colombia. Our experimentation reveals that AutoGluon and CatBoost are competitive and robust ML approaches to deal with various CSP problems. In addition, we concluded that general-purpose AutoML effectively supports the MSP in CSP without developing domain-focused AutoML methods for this supervised learning problem. Finally, based on the results obtained, we introduce challenges and research opportunities that the community should explore to enhance the contributions that ML and AutoML can bring to CSP and other transportation areas.

Machine Learning Approaches to Traffic Accident Analysis and Hotspot Prediction

Traffic accidents are one of the most important concerns of the world, since they result in numerous casualties, injuries, and fatalities each year, as well as significant economic losses. There are many factors that are responsible for causing road accidents. If these factors can be better understood and predicted, it might be possible to take measures to mitigate the damages and its severity. The purpose of this work is to identify these factors using accident data from 2016 to 2019 from the district of Setúbal, Portugal. This work aims at developing models that can select a set of influential factors that may be used to classify the severity of an accident, supporting an analysis on the accident data. In addition, this study also proposes a predictive model for future road accidents based on past data. Various machine learning approaches are used to create these models. Supervised machine learning methods such as decision trees (DT), random forests (RF), logistic regression (LR), and naive Bayes (NB) are used, as well as unsupervised machine learning techniques including DBSCAN and hierarchical clustering. Results show that a rule-based model using the C5.0 algorithm is capable of accurately detecting the most relevant factors describing a road accident severity. Further, the results of the predictive model suggests the RF model could be a useful tool for forecasting accident hotspots.

Assessment of the Influence of Technology-Based Distracted Driving on Drivers' Infractions and Their Subsequent Impact on Traffic Accidents Severity

Multitasking while driving negatively affects driving performance and threatens people’s lives every day. Moreover, technology-based distractions are among the top driving distractions that are proven to divert the driver’s attention away from the road and compromise their safety. This study employs recent data on road traffic accidents that occurred in Spain and uses a machine-learning algorithm to analyze, in the first place, the influence of technology-based distracted driving on drivers’ infractions considering the gender and age of the drivers and the zone and the type of vehicle. It assesses, in the second place, the impact of drivers’ infractions on the severity of traffic accidents. Findings show that (i) technology-based distractions are likely to increase the probability of committing aberrant infractions and speed infractions; (ii) technology-based distracted young drivers are more likely to speed and commit aberrant infractions; (iii) distracted motorcycles and squad riders are found more likely to speed; (iv) the probability of committing infractions by distracted drivers increases on streets and highways; and, finally, (v) drivers’ infractions lead to serious injuries.