Defining High Risk Prostate Cancer With Risk Groups and Nomograms: Implications for Designing Clinical Trials

Predicting the risk of glaucoma-related adverse events following secondary intraocular lens implantation in paediatric eyes: a 3-year study

AIMS

To establish and evaluate predictive models for glaucoma-related adverse events (GRAEs) following secondary intraocular lens (IOL) implantation in paediatric eyes.

METHODS

205 children (356 aphakic eyes) receiving secondary IOL implantation at Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center with a 3-year follow-up were enrolled. Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify predictors of GRAEs and developed nomograms. Model performance was evaluated with time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, decision curve analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves and validated internally through C-statistics and calibration plot of the bootstrap samples.

RESULTS

Older age at secondary IOL implantation (HR=1.5, 95% CI: 1.03 to 2.19), transient intraocular hypertension (HR=9.06, 95% CI: 2.97 to 27.67) and ciliary sulcus implantation (HR=14.55, 95% CI: 2.11 to 100.57) were identified as risk factors for GRAEs (all p<0.05). Two nomograms were established. At postoperatively 1, 2 and 3 years, model 1 achieved area under the ROC curves (AUCs) of 0.747 (95% CI: 0.776 to 0.935), 0.765 (95% CI: 0.804 to 0.936) and 0.748 (95% CI: 0.736 to 0.918), and the AUCs of model 2 were 0.881 (95% CI: 0.836 to 0.926), 0.895 (95% CI: 0.852 to 0.938) and 0.848 (95% CI: 0.752 to 0.945). Both models demonstrated fine clinical net benefit and performance in the interval validation. The Kaplan-Meier curves showing two distinct risk groups were well discriminated and robust in both models. An online risk calculator was constructed.

CONCLUSION

Two nomograms could sensitively and accurately identify children at high risk of GRAEs after secondary IOL implantation to help early identification and timely intervention.

Validation of the Combination Gleason Score as an Independent Favorable Prognostic Factor in Prostate Cancer Treated With Dose-Escalated Radiation Therapy

PURPOSE

Prognostic factors for prostate cancer include tumor, node, metastases stage, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, and pathology (via Gleason score [GS] or grade group). Of these, GS yields the largest effect on prostate cancer specific mortality. It was previously determined that those with cores with a mix of higher and lower GS at biopsy (which was termed a "ComboGS") had decreased risk for prostate cancer specific mortality after either surgical or radiation treatment. We validate the effect of ComboGS in an independent cohort of patients with prostate cancer treated with definitive dose-escalated radiation therapy (DE-RT) at 2 institutions.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

DE-RT was administered to 2539 men, of which 687 men had a ComboGS. To further ascertain the ComboGS effect we employed the modified Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (mCAPRA) score. Rates of biochemical event-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival were compared across CAPRA scores, with and without modification, and the prognostic value of the CAPRA scores was compared using Harrel's concordance index.

RESULTS

On univariate analysis in Gleason 7 to 10 patients the presence of ComboGS improved 10-year biochemical event-free survival from 76.6% to 82.4% (hazard ratio [HR], 0.75; confidence interval [CI], 0.59-0.96; P = .021), 10-year distant metastasis-free survival from 89.3% to 93.2% (HR, 0.57; CI, 0.39-0.85; P = .005), 10-year prostate cancer specific survival from 93.9% to 97.4% (HR, 0.39; CI, 0.21-0.7; P = .001), and 10-year overall survival from 65.7% to 75.6% (HR, 0.69; CI, 0.57-0.83; P < .001). Multivariable analysis also supported that ComboGS is protective for biochemical failure (HR, 0.64; CI, 0.50-0.83; P < .001), distant metastasis (HR, 0.42; CI, 0.28-0.63; P < .001), death from prostate cancer (HR, 0.32; CI, 0.17-0.58; P < .001), and overall mortality (HR, 0.65; CI, 0.54-0.79; P < .001). Additionally, adjusting the mCAPRA score for ComboGS decreased the risk of biochemical failure by nearly 30% (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.55-0.88; P = .003) and by 50% (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.37-0.80; P = .002) for distant metastasis.

CONCLUSIONS

ComboGS is a useful and readily available independent prognostic factor for all clinical endpoints evaluated. Moreover, the ComboGS can be used in conjunction with the extensively validated CAPRA scoring to better risk stratify patients being treated with definitive DE-RT for GS 7 to 10 disease.

The Journey of Radiotherapy Dose Escalation in High Risk Prostate Cancer; Conventional Dose Escalation to Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) Boost Treatments

High risk prostate cancer (HR-PrCa) is a subset of localized PrCa with significant potential for morbidity and mortality associated with disease recurrence and metastasis. Radiotherapy combined with Androgen Deprivation Therapy has been the standard of care for many years in HR-PrCa. In recent years, dose escalation, hypo-fractionation and high precision delivery with immobilization and image-guidance have substantially changed the face of modern PrCa radiotherapy, improving treatment convenience and outcomes. Ultra-hypo-fractionated radiotherapy delivered with high precision in the form of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) combines delivery of high biologically equivalent dose radiotherapy with the convenience of a shorter treatment schedule, as well as the promise of similar efficacy and reduced toxicity compared to conventional radiotherapy. However, rigorous investigation of SBRT in HR-PrCa remains limited. Here, we review the changes in HR-PrCa radiotherapy through dose escalation, hypo- and ultra-hypo-fractionated radiotherapy boost treatments, and the radiobiological basis of these treatments. We focus on completed and on-going trials in this disease utilizing SBRT as a sole radiation modality or as boost therapy following pelvic radiation.

Patient reported toxicity and quality of life after hypofractionated high-dose intensity-modulated radiotherapy for intermediate- and high risk prostate cancer

Background and purpose

For irradiation of localized prostate-cancer, moderately-hypofractionated regimens with a variety of dose per fraction are used. We adopted a regimen of 70 Gy in 28 fractions of 2.5 Gy, using state of the art radiotherapy (RT) and closely monitored the efficacy, toxicity and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in a large cohort, using patient-reported outcomes.

Materials and methods

Between 2008 and 2016, 462 patients with intermediate- to high-risk localized prostate cancer were treated with RT, 28 fractions of 2.5 Gy, using IMRT/VMAT, an online fiducial-maker based correction protocol and a daily inserted endorectal balloon. Overall freedom from failure (no biochemical or clinical recurrence) , as well as self-reported genitourinary (GU) and gastrointestinal (GI) related toxicity and HRQoL are reported.

Results

Overall freedom from failure rates at 3 and 5 years were 92.0% (89.1–94.9%) and 83.5% (78.6–88.4%), respectively. Prevalence rates of grade ≥ 2 GU/GI-toxicity were 16.3%/6.3% and 22,1%/3.2% after 3 and 5 years respectively. The 5-year actuarial incidences of grade ≥ 2 GU/GI-toxicity were 43.5%/18.5%. HRQoL worsened during RT and gradually recovered thereafter, In accordance with the prevalence rates.

Conclusion

Treatment of intermediate- or high-risk localized prostate cancer with RT to 70 Gy in 28 fractions with IMRT/VMAT, using fiducial markers and an endorectal balloon leads to good long-term tumor control rates and acceptable patient reported toxicity rates. Furthermore, patient-reported outcomes, including HRQoL, are essential for a good comparison between different studies. Finally, prevalence rates show a better correlation with HRQoL than actuarial incidence rates do and might therefore better represent the burden of toxicity.

Meta-analysis of predictive models to assess the clinical validity and utility for patient-centered medical decision making: application to the CAncer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA)

BACKGROUND

The Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score was designed and validated several times to predict the biochemical recurrence-free survival after a radical prostatectomy. Our objectives were, first, to study the clinical validity of the CAPRA score, and, second, to assess its clinical utility for stratified medicine from an original patient-centered approach.

METHODS

We proposed a meta-analysis based on a literature search using MEDLINE. Observed and predicted biochemical-recurrence-free survivals were compared to assess the calibration of the CAPRA score. Discriminative capacities were evaluated by estimating the summary time-dependent ROC curve. The clinical utility of the CAPRA score was evaluated according to the following stratified decisions: active monitoring for low-risk patients, prostatectomy for intermediate-risk patients, or radio-hormonal therapy for high risk patients. For this purpose, we assessed CAPRA's clinical utility in terms of its ability to maximize time-dependent utility functions (i.e. Quality-Adjusted Life-Years - QALYs).

RESULTS

We identified 683 manuscripts and finally retained 9 studies. We reported good discriminative capacities with an area under the SROCt curve at 0.73 [95%CI from 0.67 to 0.79], while graphical calibration seemed acceptable. Nevertheless, we also described that the CAPRA score was unable to discriminate between the three medical alternatives, i.e. it did not allow an increase in the number of life years in perfect health (QALYs) of patients with prostate cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed the prognostic capacities of the CAPRA score. In contrast, we were not able to demonstrate its clinical usefulness for stratified medicine from a patient-centered perspective. Our results also highlighted the confusion between clinical validity and utility. This distinction should be better considered in order to develop predictive tools useful in practice.

Low-dose-rate Brachytherapy for Prostate Cancer in Low-resource Settings

PURPOSE

In areas with limited health care, it is important to identify and implement effective treatment methods and to optimize available resources. We investigated the implementation of a low-dose-rate (LDR) brachytherapy program for the treatment of prostate cancer (PCa) in a low-resource setting such as Puerto Rico (PR), where PCa is the main cause of cancer-associated death.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

After institutional approval, the medical records of patients with nonmetastatic PCa undergoing LDR brachytherapy from 2008 to 2013 were reviewed from PR. The factors analyzed included adequate D₉₀ (radiation dose delivered to 90% of the target volume) coverage (≥140 Gy), early and late toxicity (Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events grade >2), and prostate-specific antigen failure. Freedom from biochemical failure was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

The barriers to implementation of LDR brachytherapy in a country with limited resources were identified. These included lack of access to funding for startup costs, specific referral patterns, lack of trained support staff, such as dosimetrists and physicists, and initial opposition from insurance companies for reimbursement. The initial results from 191 patients were included in the present study with a median follow-up period of 26 months. Prostate-specific antigen failure occurred in 6 patients (3%). No early or late gastrointestinal toxicity (grade >2) developed. Only 3 (2%) and 2 (1%) patients experienced early and late genitourinary toxicity (grade >2), respectively. The 2- and 3-year freedom from biochemical failure in this population was 97% and 95.9%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

At present, limited data are available delineating the barriers faced by low-resource settings in the implementation of LDR brachytherapy. Our data highlight the issues unique to this environment and support the use of LDR brachytherapy as a reliable and effective treatment modality for patients with PCa in low-resource settings.

Heterogeneity in high-risk prostate cancer treated with high-dose radiation therapy and androgen deprivation therapy

Background

Our aim was to assess the heterogeneity of high-risk (HR) prostate cancer managed with high-dose external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT).

Methods

We identified 547 patients who were treated with modern EBRT from 1997 to 2013, of whom 98% received ADT. We analyzed biochemical relapse-free survival (bRFS) and distant metastases-free survival (DMFS).

Results

Median EBRT dose was 74 Gy, and median ADT duration was 8 months. At 5 years, the DMFS was 85%. On multivariate analysis, significant predictors of shorter bRFS were biopsy Gleason score (bGS) of 8 to 10, higher prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, shorter duration of ADT and lower radiation dose while predictors of shorter DMFS were bGS of 8 to 10, higher PSA level, and lower radiation dose. We identified an unfavorable high-risk (UHR) group of with 2–3 HR factors based on 2015 National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) criteria and a favorable high-risk (FHR) group, with 1 HR feature. Comparing very-HR prostate cancer, UHR & FHR, 5 year bRFS rates were 58.2%, 66.2%, and 69.2%, and 5 year DMFS rates were 78.4%, 81.2%, and 88.0%.

Conclusion

Patients with multiple HR factors have worse outcome than patients with 1 HR factor. Future studies should account for this heterogeneity in HR prostate cancer.

PET and PET/CT with radiolabeled choline in prostate cancer: a critical reappraisal of 20 years of clinical studies

We here aim to provide a comprehensive and critical review of the literature concerning the clinical applications of positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) with radiolabeled choline in patients with prostate cancer (PCa). We will initially briefly summarize the historical context that brought to the synthesis of [¹¹C]choline, which occurred exactly 20 years ago. We have arbitrarily grouped the clinical studies in three different periods, according to the year in which they were published and according to their relation with their applications in urology, radiotherapy and oncology. Studies at initial staging and, more extensively, studies in patients with biochemical failure, as well as factors predicting positive PET/CT will be reviewed. The capability of PET/CT with radiolabeled choline to provide prognostic information on PCa-specific survival will also be examined. The last sections will be devoted to the use of radiolabeled choline for monitoring the response to androgen deprivation therapy, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. The accuracy and the limits of the technique will be discussed according to the information available from standard validation processes, including biopsy or histology. The clinical impact of the technique will be discussed on the basis of changes induced in the management of patients and in the evaluation of the response to therapy. Current indications to PET/CT, as officially endorsed by guidelines, or as routinely performed in the clinical practice will be illustrated. Emphasis will be made on methodological factors that might have influenced the results of the studies or their interpretation. Finally, we will briefly highlight the potential role of positron emission tomography/magnetic resonance and of new radiotracers for PCa imaging.

Multidisciplinary intervention of early, lethal metastatic prostate cancer: Report from the 2015 Coffey-Holden Prostate Cancer Academy Meeting

BACKGROUND

The 2015 Coffey-Holden Prostate Cancer Academy Meeting, themed: "Multidisciplinary Intervention of Early, Lethal Metastatic Prostate Cancer," was held in La Jolla, California from June 25 to 28, 2015.

METHODS

The Prostate Cancer Foundation (PCF) sponsors an annual, invitation-only, action-tank-structured meeting on a critical topic concerning lethal prostate cancer. The 2015 meeting was attended by 71 basic, translational, and clinical investigators who discussed the current state of the field, major unmet needs, and ideas for addressing earlier diagnosis and treatment of men with lethal prostate cancer for the purpose of extending lives and making progress toward a cure.

RESULTS

The questions addressed at the meeting included: cellular and molecular mechanisms of tumorigenesis, evaluating, and targeting the microenvironment in the primary tumor, advancing biomarkers for clinical integration, new molecular imaging technologies, clinical trials, and clinical trial design in localized high-risk and oligometastatic settings, targeting the primary tumor in advanced disease, and instituting multi-modal care of high risk and oligometastatic patients.

DISCUSSION

This article highlights the current status, greatest unmet needs, and anticipated field changes that were discussed at the meeting toward the goal of optimizing earlier interventions to potentiate cures in high-risk and oligometastatic prostate cancer patients.

The number of risk factors is the strongest predictor of prostate cancer mortality: multi-institutional outcomes of an extreme-risk prostate cancer cohort

PURPOSE

To report treatment outcomes in a cohort of extreme-risk prostate cancer patients and identify a subgroup of patients with worse prognosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Extreme-risk prostate cancer patients were defined as patients with at least one extreme-risk factor: stage cT3b-cT4, Gleason score 9-10 or PSA > 50 ng/ml; or patients with 2 or more high-risk factors: stage cT2c-cT3a, Gleason 8 and PSA > 20 ng/ml. Overall survival (OS), cause-specific survival (CSS), clinical-free survival (CFS), and biochemical non-evidence of disease (bNED) survival are the four outcomes of interest in a population of 1341 patients.

RESULTS

With a median follow-up of 71.5 months, 5- and 10-year bNED survival, CFS, CSS and OS for the entire cohort were 77.1 % and 57.0, 89.2 and 78.9 %, 97.4 and 93.6 %, and 92.0 and 71.3 %, respectively. On multivariate analysis, PSA and clinical stage were associated with bNED survival. PSA and Gleason score predicted for CFS, whereas only Gleason score predicted for OS. When a simplified model was performed using the "number of risk factors" variable, this model provided the best distinction between patients with ≥2 extreme-risk factors and patients with 2 high-risk factors, showing a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.737 (p = 0.0003) for bNED survival, HR 1.743 (p = 0.0448) for OS and an HR of 3.963 (p = 0.0039) for the CSS endpoint.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients presenting at diagnosis with two extreme-risk criteria have almost fourfold higher risk for prostate cancer mortality. Such patients should be considered for more aggressive multimodal treatments.

Favorable outcomes in locally advanced and node positive prostate cancer patients treated with combined pelvic IMRT and androgen deprivation therapy

Background

The most appropriate treatment for men with prostate cancer and positive pelvic nodes, N+, is an area of active controversy. We report our 5-years outcomes in men with locally advanced prostate cancer (T1-T4N0-N1M0) treated with definitive radiotherapy encompassing the prostate and pelvic lymph nodes (intensity modulated radiotherapy, IMRT) and long-term androgen deprivation therapy (ADT).

Material and methods

Of the 138 consecutive eligible men all living patients have been followed up to almost 5 years. Survival endpoints for 5-year biochemical failure-free survival (BFFS), relapse-free survival (RFS), prostate cancer-specific survival (PCSS), and overall survival (OS) were assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression proportional hazards models were constructed for all survival endpoints. The RTOG morbidity grading system for physician rated toxicity was applied.

Results

Patients with locally advanced T3-T4 tumors (35 %) and N1 (51 %) have favorable outcome when long-term ADT is combined with definitive radiotherapy encompassing pelvic lymph nodes. The 5-year BFFS, RFS, PCSS and OS were 71.4, 76.2, 94.5 and 89.0 %, respectively. High Gleason sum (9–10) had a strong independent prognostic impact on BFFS, RFS and OS (p = 0.001, <0.001, and 0.005 respectively). The duration of ADT (= > 28 months) showed a significant independent association with improved PCSS (p = 0.02) and OS (p = 0.001). Lymph node involvement was not associated with survival endpoints in the multivariate analysis. The radiotherapy induced toxicity seen in our study population was moderate with rare Grade 3 GI side effects and up to 11 % for Grade 3 GU consisting mainly of urgency and frequency.

Conclusion

Pelvic IMRT in combination with long-term ADT can achieve long-lasting disease control in men with N+ disease and unfavorable prognostic factors.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13014-015-0540-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Adding intensity-modulated radiotherapy to the pelvis does not worsen the adverse effect profiles compared to limited field radiotherapy in men with prostate cancer at 12-month follow-up

To compare adverse effects and toxicity in men with high-risk or locally advanced prostate cancer when adding intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) technique to the pelvis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this prospective follow-up study 180 patients treated with conformal radiotherapy (RAD) to the prostate and vesiculae seminales (boost volumes; PV) and long-term androgen deprivation therapy (LADT), were compared to 90 patients managed by LADT, RAD to the PV and additionally pelvic IMRT. Adverse effects were self-reported at baseline, at 3- and 12-month follow-up. At each time point, the patients rated a questionnaire covering urinary, bowel, and sexual function and bother, quality of life, fatigue, and mental distress.

RESULTS

At 3-month follow-up urinary and bowel functions were significantly decreased among IMRT compared to RAD. At 12-month follow-up both groups showed the same reductions within the urinary, bowel and sexual domains. RAD patients had more mental distress than IMRT patients. The scores on quality of life, fatigue and mental distress hardly influenced function or bother within the urinary, bowel or sexual domains.

CONCLUSIONS

Men treated for high-risk or locally advanced prostate cancer with a combination of LADT, RAD and IMRT including PV and pelvic structures had considerably more acute side effects at 3 months than men treated with LADT and RAD to the PV only. However, at 12-month follow-up, the observed genitourinary and gastrointestinal function and bother were similar in both groups.

High-risk prostate cancer-classification and therapy

Approximately 15% of patients with prostate cancer are diagnosed with high-risk disease. However, the current definitions of high-risk prostate cancer include a heterogeneous group of patients with a range of prognoses. Some have the potential to progress to a lethal phenotype that can be fatal, while others can be cured with treatment of the primary tumour alone. The optimal management of this patient subgroup is evolving. A refined classification scheme is needed to enable the early and accurate identification of high-risk disease so that more-effective treatment paradigms can be developed. We discuss several principles established from clinical trials, and highlight other questions that remain unanswered. This Review critically evaluates the existing literature focused on defining the high-risk population, the management of patients with high-risk prostate cancer, and future directions to optimize care.

Intensity-modulated radiotherapy to the pelvis and androgen deprivation in men with locally advanced prostate cancer: a study of adverse effects and their relation to quality of life

BACKGROUND

To study, adverse effects, quality of life (QoL), fatigue, and mental distress when intensity-modulated radiotherapy combined with androgen deprivation was applied to the whole pelvis as management of men with locally advanced prostate cancer.

METHODS

In this prospective follow-up study 91 patients were treated by modern pelvic intensity-modulated radiotherapy and followed for 12 months. The patients completed a questionnaire with well-established instruments for adverse effects on urinary, bowel, and sexual function and bother, QoL, fatigue, and mental distress before treatment, and at 3 and 12 months follow-up.

RESULTS

After pelvic intensity-modulated radiotherapy the mean levels of sexual urinary and bowel function and bother were significantly reduced from baseline. Only urinary bother improved from 3 to 12-month follow-up. The levels of fatigue and QoL increased significantly from baseline to 3-month. Mental distress, fatigue, and QoL were significantly associated with both urinary and bowel function and bother at most time points, while so was not observed for sexual bother and function.

CONCLUSIONS

Men treated with pelvic intensity-modulated radiotherapy and androgen deprivation have significant reductions of all types of function and bother at 3 months, with minimal improvement to 12 months except for urinary bother. Fatigue possibly due to pelvic intensity-modulated radiotherapy increased at follow-ups.

Allelic loss of the loci containing the androgen synthesis gene, StAR, is prognostic for relapse in intermediate-risk prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and novel agents targeting the androgen synthesis axis (e.g., abiraterone acetate) are adjuvant therapies that are currently, or may in the future be, combined with radiotherapy to reduce the chance of disease relapse. Little is known about allelic loss or gain pertaining to genes associated with the androgen synthesis axis and whether this is prognostic in patients who receive localized radiotherapy. In this hypothesis generating study, we conducted an array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) analysis of 33 androgen synthesis genes to identify potential prognostic factors for radiotherapy outcome.

METHODS

aCGH analysis of tumor DNA prospectively derived from frozen needle biopsies of 126 men with intermediate-risk disease who underwent image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) to a mean dose of 76.4 Gy was conducted. Statistical analyses were conducted for allelic loss or gain in genes as potential prognostic factors relative to prostate specific antigen, Gleason-score, and T-category.

RESULTS

We observed that allelic losses of loci containing the genes StAR and HSD17B2 were associated with increased genetic instability (as determined by percentage genome alteration). On multivariate analyses these loci were prognostic for biochemical disease-free relapse (StAR: HR = 2.84, 95% CI: 1.44-5.61, P = 0.00269; HSD17B2: HR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.06-3.64, P = 0.031). The results were validated in a surgical cohort of 131 intermediate-risk patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Allelic losses of the loci containing StAR and HSD17B2 have significant prognostic value for intermediate-risk prostate cancer. With this hypothesis generating information future studies should test StAR and HSD17B2 losses as biomarkers of androgen response in combined modality protocols.

Pre-treatment risk stratification of prostate cancer patients: A critical review

INTRODUCTION

The use of accepted prostate cancer risk stratification groups based on prostate-specific antigen, T stage and Gleason score assists in therapeutic treatment decision-making, clinical trial design and outcome reporting. The utility of integrating novel prognostic factors into an updated risk stratification schema is an area of current debate. The purpose of this work is to critically review the available literature on novel pre-treatment prognostic factors and alternative prostate cancer risk stratification schema to assess the feasibility and need for changes to existing risk stratification systems.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted to identify original research publications and review articles on prognostic factors and risk stratification in prostate cancer. Search terms included risk stratification, risk assessment, prostate cancer or neoplasms, and prognostic factors. Abstracted information was assessed to draw conclusions regarding the potential utility of changes to existing risk stratification schema.

RESULTS

The critical review identified three specific clinically relevant potential changes to the most commonly used three-group risk stratification system: (1) the creation of a very-low risk category; (2) the splitting of intermediate-risk into a low- and high-intermediate risk groups; and (3) the clarification of the interface between intermediate- and high-risk disease. Novel pathological factors regarding high-grade cancer, subtypes of Gleason score 7 and percentage biopsy cores positive were also identified as potentially important risk-stratification factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple studies of prognostic factors have been performed to create currently utilized prostate cancer risk stratification systems. We propose potential changes to existing systems.

Copy number alterations of c-MYC and PTEN are prognostic factors for relapse after prostate cancer radiotherapy

Despite the use of PSA, Gleason score, and T-category as prognosticators in intermediate-risk prostate cancer, 20-40% of patients will fail local therapy. In order to optimize treatment approaches for intermediate-risk patients, additional genetic prognosticators are needed. Previous reports using array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) in radical prostatectomy cohorts suggested a combination of allelic loss of the PTEN gene on 10q and allelic gain of the c-MYC gene on 8q were associated with metastatic disease. We tested whether copy number alterations (CNAs) in PTEN (allelic loss) and c-MYC (allelic gain) were associated with biochemical relapse following modern-era, image-guided radiotherapy (mean dose 76.4 Gy). We used aCGH analyses validated by fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH) of DNA was derived from frozen, pre-treatment biopsies in 126 intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients. Patients whose tumors had CNAs in both PTEN and c-MYC had significantly increased genetic instability (percent genome alteration; PGA) compared to tumors with normal PTEN and c-MYC status (p < 0.0001). We demonstrate that c-MYC gain alone, or combined c-MYC gain and PTEN loss, were increasingly prognostic for relapse on multivariable analyses (hazard ratios (HR) of 2.58/p = 0.005 and 3.21/p = 0.0004; respectively). Triaging patients by the use of CNAs within pre-treatment biopsies may allow for better use of systemic therapies to target sub-clinical metastases or locally recurrent disease and improve clinical outcomes.

NKX3.1 haploinsufficiency is prognostic for prostate cancer relapse following surgery or image-guided radiotherapy

BACKGROUND

Despite the use of prostate specific antigen (PSA), Gleason-score, and T-category as prognostic factors, up to 40% of patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer will fail radical prostatectomy or precision image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT). Additional genetic prognosticators are needed to triage these patients toward intensified combination therapy with novel targeted therapeutics. We tested the role of the NKX3.1 gene as a determinant of treatment outcome given its reported roles in tumor initiating cell (TIC) renewal, the DNA damage response, and cooperation with c-MYC during prostate cancer progression.

METHODS

Using high-resolution array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH), we profiled the copy number alterations in TIC genes using tumor DNA from frozen needle biopsies derived from 126 intermediate-risk patients who underwent IGRT. These data were correlated to biochemical relapse-free rate (bRFR) by the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

A screen of the aCGH-IGRT data for TIC genes showed frequent copy number alterations for NKX3.1, PSCA, and c-MYC. NKX3.1 haploinsufficiency was associated with increased genomic instability independent of PSA, T-category, and Gleason-score. After adjusting for clinical factors in a multivariate model, NKX3.1 haploinsufficiency was associated with bRFR when tested alone (HR = 3.05, 95% CI: 1.46-6.39, P = 0.0030) or when combined with c-MYC gain (HR = 3.88, 95% CI: 1.78-8.49, P = 0.00067). A similar association was observed for patients following radical prostatectomy with a public aCGH database. NKX3.1 status was associated with positive biopsies post-IGRT and increased clonogen radioresistance in vitro.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the use of genomic predictors, such as NKX3.1 status, in needle biopsies for personalized approaches to prostate cancer management.

New tricks with old dogs: personalised medicine and clinical trials

We provide a didactic example of how clinical trials can accommodate individualised patient information relative to design and analysis.

Extreme-risk prostate adenocarcinoma presenting with prostate-specific antigen (PSA)>40 ng/ml: prognostic significance of the preradiation PSA nadir

PURPOSE

To examine the impact of patient, disease, and treatment characteristics on survival outcomes in patients treated with neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and radical external-beam radiotherapy (RT) for clinically localized, extreme-risk prostate adenocarcinoma with a presenting prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration of >40 ng/ml.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A retrospective chart review was conducted of 64 patients treated at a single institution between 1991 and 2000 with ADT and RT for prostate cancer with a presenting PSA level of >40 ng/ml. The effects of patient age, tumor (presenting PSA level, Gleason score, and T stage), and treatment (total ADT duration and pre-RT PSA level) characteristics on rates of biochemical disease-free survival (bDFS), prostate cancer-specific survival (PCSS), and overall survival (OS) were examined.

RESULTS

Median follow-up time was 6.45 years (range, 0.09-15.19 years). Actuarial bDFS, PCSS, and OS rates at 5 years were 39%, 87%, and 78%, respectively, and 17%, 64%, and 45%, respectively, at 10 years. On multivariate analysis, the pre-RT PSA level (≤0.1 versus >0.1 ng/ml) was the single most significant prognostic factor for bDFS (p=0.033) and OS (p=0.018) rates, whereas age, T stage, Gleason score, and ADT duration (≤6 versus >6 months) were not predictive of outcomes.

CONCLUSION

In prostate cancer patients with high presenting PSA levels, >40 ng/ml, treated with combined modality, neoadjuvant ADT, and RT, the pre-RT PSA nadir, rather than ADT duration, was significantly associated with improved survival. This observation supports the use of neoadjuvant ADT to drive PSA levels to below 0.1 ng/ml before initiation of RT, to optimize outcomes for patients with extreme-risk disease.

Predictive models in external beam radiotherapy for clinically localized prostate cancer

Predictive models are being used increasingly in effort to allow physician and patient expectations to be aligned with outcomes that are based on available data. Most predictive models for men who receive external beam radiotherapy for clinically localized prostate cancer are based on Gleason score, clinical tumor classification, and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels. More sophisticated models also have been developed that incorporate treatment-related variables, such as the dose of radiation and the use of androgen-deprivation therapy. Most of the predictive models applied to prostate cancer were derived using PSA recurrence rates as the major endpoint, but clinical endpoints have been incorporated increasingly into predictive models. Biomarkers also are increasingly being added to predictive models in an effort to strengthen them. The Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) has completed studies on a wide range of markers using tissue from 2 phase 3 trials (RTOG 8610 and 9202). To date, preliminary assessments of p53; DNA ploidy; p16/retinoblastoma 1 protein; Ki-67; mouse double-minute p53 binding protein homolog; Bcl-2/Bcl-2-associated X protein; cytosine, adenine, and guanine repeats; cyclooxygenase-2; signal transducer and activator of transcription 3; cytochrome P450 3A4; and protein kinase A have been completed. Although they are not ready for widespread, routine use, there are reasons to believe that future models will combine these markers with traditional pretreatment and treatment-related variables and will improve our ability to predict outcome and select the optimal treatment. Cancer 2009;115(13 suppl):3112-20. (c) 2009 American Cancer Society.

How to build and interpret a nomogram for cancer prognosis

Nomograms are widely used for cancer prognosis, primarily because of their ability to reduce statistical predictive models into a single numerical estimate of the probability of an event, such as death or recurrence, that is tailored to the profile of an individual patient. User-friendly graphical interfaces for generating these estimates facilitate the use of nomograms during clinical encounters to inform clinical decision making. However, the statistical underpinnings of these models require careful scrutiny, and the degree of uncertainty surrounding the point estimates requires attention. This guide provides a nonstatistical audience with a methodological approach for building, interpreting, and using nomograms to estimate cancer prognosis or other health outcomes.