03:09 PM Abstract No. 374 Machine learning can predict iatrogenic pneumothorax following lung biopsy

Development of a machine learning model for predicting pneumothorax risk in coaxial core needle biopsy (≤3 cm)

PURPOSE

The aim is to devise a machine learning algorithm exploiting preoperative clinical data to forecast the hazard of pneumothorax post-coaxial needle lung biopsy (CCNB), thereby informing clinical decision-making and enhancing perioperative care.

METHOD

This retrospective analysis aggregated clinical and imaging data from patients with lung nodules (≤3 cm) biopsies. Variable selection was done using univariate analysis and LASSO regression, with the dataset subsequently divided into training (80 %) and validation (20 %) subsets. Various machine learning (ML) classifiers were employed in a consolidated approach to ascertain the paramount model, which was followed by individualized risk profiling showcased through Shapley Additive eXplanations (SHAP).

RESULTS

Out of the 325 patients included in the study, 19.6% (64/325) experienced postoperative pneumothorax. High-risk factors determined were Cancer, Lesion_type, GOLD, Size, and Depth. The Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB) classifier demonstrated superior prediction with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.82 (95% CI 0.71-0.94), complemented by an accuracy rate of 0.8, sensitivity of 0.71, specificity of 0.84, and an F1 score of 0.61 in the test cohort.

CONCLUSION

The formulated prognostic algorithm exhibited commendable efficacy in preoperatively prognosticating CCNB-induced pneumothorax, harboring the potential to refine personalized risk appraisals, steer clinical judgment, and ameliorate perioperative patient stewardship.

Machine-Learned Algorithms to Predict the Risk of Pneumothorax Requiring Chest Tube Placement after Lung Biopsy

PURPOSE

To develop a machine-learned algorithm to predict the risk of postlung biopsy pneumothorax requiring chest tube placement (CTP) to facilitate preprocedural decision making, optimize patient care, and improve resource allocation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study collected clinical and imaging features of biopsy samples obtained from patients with lung nodule biopsy and included information from 59 procedures resulting in pneumothorax requiring CTP and randomly selected 67 procedures without CTP (convenience sample). The data were divided into 70 and 30 as training and testing sets, respectively. Conventional machine-learned binary classifiers were explored with preprocedural imaging and clinical data as input features and CTP as the output.

RESULTS

There was no single pathognomonic imaging or predictive clinical feature. For the independent test set under the high-specificity mode, a decision tree, logistic regression, and Naïve Bayes classifier achieved accuracies of identifying CTP at 0.79, 0.93, and 0.89 and area under receiver operating curves (AUROCs) of 0.68, 0.76, and 0.82, respectively. Under high-sensitivity mode, a decision tree, logistic regression, and Naïve Bayes achieved accuracies of identifying CTP of 0.60, 0.45, and 0.60 with AUROCs of 0.71, 0.81, and 0.82, respectively. High importance features included lesion character, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lesion depth, and age. A coarse decision tree requiring 4 inputs achieved comparable performance as other methods and previous machine learning prediction studies.

CONCLUSIONS

The results support the possibility of predicting pneumothorax requiring CTP after biopsy based on an automated decision support, reliant on readily available preprocedural information.