The review of differential equation models of HBV infection dynamics

Modelling disease spread with spatio-temporal fractional derivative equations and saturated incidence rate

The global analysis of a spatio-temporal fractional order SIR infection model with saturated incidence function is suggested and studied in this paper. The dynamics of the infection is described by three partial differential equations including a time-fractional derivative order for each one of them. The equations of our model describe the evolution of the susceptible, the infected and the recovered individuals with taking into account the spatial diffusion for each compartment. We will choose a saturated incidence rate in order to describe the nonlinear force of the infection. First, we will prove the well-posedness of our suggested model in terms of existence and uniqueness of the solution. Also in this context, the boundedness and the positivity of solutions are established. Afterward, we will give the forms of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic one. It was demonstrated that the global stability of the each equilibrium depends mainly on the basic reproduction number. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to validate the theoretical results and to show the effect of vaccination in reducing the infection severity. It was shown that the fractional derivative order has no effect on the equilibria stability but only on the convergence speed towards the steady states. It was also observed that vaccination is amongst the good strategies in controlling the disease spread.

Effect of cellular regeneration and viral transmission mode on viral spread

Illness negatively affects all aspects of life and one major cause of illness is viral infections. Some viral infections can last for weeks; others, like influenza (the flu), can resolve quickly. During infections, uninfected cells can replicate in order to replenish the cells that have died due to the virus. Many viral models, especially those for short-lived infections like influenza, tend to ignore cellular regeneration since many think that uncomplicated influenza resolves much faster than cells regenerate. This research accounts for cellular regeneration, using an agent-based framework, and varies the regeneration rate in order to understand how cell regeneration affects viral infection dynamics under assumptions of different modes of transmission. We find that although the general trends in peak viral load, time of viral peak, and chronic viral load as regeneration rate changes are the same for cell-free or cell-to-cell transmission, the changes are more extreme for cell-to-cell transmission due to limited access of infected cells to newly generated cells.

Fractional differential equation modeling of the HBV infection with time delay and logistic proliferation

In this article, a fractional-order differential equation model of HBV infection was proposed with a Caputo derivative, delayed immune response, and logistic proliferation. Initially, infection-free and infection equilibriums and the basic reproduction number were computed. Thereafter, the stability of the two equilibriums was analyzed based on the fractional Routh-Hurwitz stability criterion, and the results indicated that the stability will change if the time delay or fractional order changes. In addition, the sensitivity of the basic reproduction number was analyzed to find out the most sensitive parameter. Lastly, the theoretical analysis was verified by numerical simulations. The results showed that the time delay of immune response and fractional order can significantly affect the dynamic behavior in the HBV infection process. Therefore, it is necessary to consider time delay and fractional order in modeling HBV infection and studying its dynamics.

Modeling and Mathematical Analysis of the Dynamics of HPV in Cervical Epithelial Cells: Transient, Acute, Latency, and Chronic Infections

The aim of this paper is to model the dynamics of the human papillomavirus (HPV) in cervical epithelial cells. We developed a mathematical model of the epithelial cellular dynamics of the stratified epithelium of three (basale, intermedium, and corneum) stratums that is based on three ordinary differential equations. We determine the biological condition for the existence of the epithelial cell homeostasis equilibrium, and we obtain the necessary and sufficient conditions for its global stability using the method of Lyapunov functions and a theorem on limiting systems. We have also developed a mathematical model based on seven ordinary differential equations that describes the dynamics of HPV infection. We calculated the basic reproductive number (R₀) of the infection using the next-generation operator method. We determine the existence and the local stability of the equilibrium point of the cellular homeostasis of the epithelium. We then give a sufficient condition for the global asymptotic stability of the epithelial cell homeostasis equilibrium using the Lyapunov function method. We proved that this equilibrium point is nonhyperbolic when R₀ = 1 and that in this case, the system presents a forward bifurcation, which shows the existence of an infected equilibrium point when R₀ > 1. We also study the solutions numerically (i.e., viral kinetic in silico) when R₀ > 1. Finally, local sensitivity index was calculated to assess the influence of different parameters on basic reproductive number. Our model reproduces the transient, acute, latent, and chronic infections that have been reported in studies of the natural history of HPV.

Modeling the COVID-19 Epidemic With Multi-Population and Control Strategies in the United States

As of January 19, 2021, the cumulative number of people infected with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the United States has reached 24,433,486, and the number is still rising. The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has not only affected the development of the global economy but also seriously threatened the lives and health of human beings around the world. According to the transmission characteristics of COVID-19 in the population, this study established a theoretical differential equation mathematical model, estimated model parameters through epidemiological data, obtained accurate mathematical models, and adopted global sensitivity analysis methods to screen sensitive parameters that significantly affect the development of the epidemic. Based on the established precise mathematical model, we calculate the basic reproductive number of the epidemic, evaluate the transmission capacity of the COVID-19 epidemic, and predict the development trend of the epidemic. By analyzing the sensitivity of parameters and finding sensitive parameters, we can provide effective control strategies for epidemic prevention and control. After appropriate modifications, the model can also be used for mathematical modeling of epidemics in other countries or other infectious diseases.

Optimal Voluntary Vaccination of Adults and Adolescents Can Help Eradicate Hepatitis B in China

Hepatitis B (HBV) is one of the most common infectious diseases, with a worldwide annual incidence of over 250 million people. About one-third of the cases are in China. While China made significant efforts to implement a nationwide HBV vaccination program for newborns, a significant number of susceptible adults and teens remain. In this paper, we analyze a game-theoretical model of HBV dynamics that incorporates government-provided vaccination at birth coupled with voluntary vaccinations of susceptible adults and teens. We show that the optimal voluntary vaccination brings the disease incidence to very low levels. This result is robust and, in particular, due to a high HBV treatment cost, essentially independent from the vaccine cost.

Mathematical analysis and simulation of a stochastic COVID-19 Lévy jump model with isolation strategy

This paper investigates the dynamics of a COVID-19 stochastic model with isolation strategy. The white noise as well as the Lévy jump perturbations are incorporated in all compartments of the suggested model. First, the existence and uniqueness of a global positive solution are proven. Next, the stochastic dynamic properties of the stochastic solution around the deterministic model equilibria are investigated. Finally, the theoretical results are reinforced by some numerical simulations.

Dynamical analysis for delayed virus infection models with cell-to-cell transmission and density-dependent diffusion

In this paper, certain delayed virus dynamical models with cell-to-cell infection and density-dependent diffusion are investigated. For the viral model with a single strain, we have proved the well-posedness and studied the global stabilities of equilibria by defining the basic reproductive number [Formula: see text] and structuring proper Lyapunov functional. Moreover, we found that the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text], and the infection equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text]. For the multi-strain model, we found that all viral strains coexist if the corresponding basic reproductive number [Formula: see text], while virus will extinct if [Formula: see text]. As a result, we found that delay and the density-dependent diffusion does not influence the global stability of the model with cell-to-cell infection and homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions.