Multiple attribute consensus rules with minimum adjustments to support consensus reaching

Analysis of noise and bias errors in intelligence information systems

An intelligence information system (IIS) is a particular kind of information systems (IS) devoted to the analysis of intelligence relevant to national security. Professional and military intelligence analysts play a key role in this, but their judgments can be inconsistent, mainly due to noise and bias. The team-oriented aspects of the intelligence analysis process complicates the situation further. To enable analysts to achieve better judgments, the authors designed, implemented, and validated an innovative IIS for analyzing UK Military Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) data. The developed tool, the Team Information Decision Engine (TIDE), relies on an innovative preference learning method along with an aggregation procedure that permits combining scores by individual analysts into aggregated scores. This paper reports on a series of validation trials in which the performance of individual and team-oriented analysts was accessed with respect to their effectiveness and efficiency. Results show that the use of the developed tool enhanced the effectiveness and efficiency of intelligence analysis process at both individual and team levels.

A Multi-Agent Linguistic-Style Large Group Decision-Making Method Considering Public Expectations

Focusing on the characteristics of public participation and large group decision making of major livelihood projects, this paper proposes a multi-agent linguistic-style large group decision-making method with the consideration of public expectations. Firstly, based on the discrimination degree of evaluating information, the comprehensive weight of each attribute is calculated with the principle of maximum entropy. Secondly, the expert preference information for different alternatives is clustered and several aggregations are formed. Thirdly, the preference conflict level of experts' group for each alternative is calculated, and a conflict-oriented experts' aggregation weight optimization model is constructed to ensure the effectiveness of conflict resolution. Fourthly, the public group's satisfaction is determined with the expectation distribution of public’s and the expert group's preference, so as to obtain the sorting result of the decision alternatives. Finally, the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method are verified by method comparison.

An evidence theory based approach for group decision making under uncertainty

With the changing business environment and the active participation of various stakeholders in the decision making process, it plays an increasingly important role to the weight of decision makers and the preference information given by decision makers. This paper presents a novel approach for group decision making under uncertainty with the involvement of the third-party evaluator in the decision making process. Recognizing the challenge in adequately determining the weight of decision makers in group decision making, the evidence theory is appropriately used with the involvement of the third-party evaluator. To effectively model the uncertainty and imprecision in the decision making process, fuzzy preference relations are used for better representing the subjective assessment of individual decision makers. To adequately determine the ranking of available alternatives, the logarithmic least square method is applied for appropriately aggregating the fuzzy preference relation of individual decision makers. A group consensus index is developed for facilitating consensus building in group decision making. This leads to better group decisions being made. A real-world application is presented that shows the proposed approach is effective in solving group decision making problems under uncertainty.

A Method for Consensus Reaching in Product Kansei Evaluation Using Advanced Particle Swarm Optimization

Consumers’ opinions toward product design alternatives are often subjective and perceptual, which reflect their perception about a product and can be described using Kansei adjectives. Therefore, Kansei evaluation is often employed to determine consumers’ preference. However, how to identify and improve the reliability of consumers’ Kansei evaluation opinions toward design alternatives has an important role in adding additional insurance and reducing uncertainty to successful product design. To solve this problem, this study employs a consensus model to measure consistence among consumers’ opinions, and an advanced particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm combined with Linearly Decreasing Inertia Weight (LDW) method is proposed for consensus reaching by minimizing adjustment of consumers’ opinions. Furthermore, the process of the proposed method is presented and the details are illustrated using an example of electronic scooter design evaluation. The case study reveals that the proposed method is promising for reaching a consensus through searching optimal solutions by PSO and improving the reliability of consumers’ evaluation opinions toward design alternatives according to Kansei indexes.