Attitudes towards booster, testing and isolation, and their impact on COVID-19 response in winter 2022/2023 in France, Belgium, and Italy: a cross-sectional survey and modelling study

Impact of infectious density-induced additional screening and treatment saturation on COVID-19: Modeling and cost-effective optimal control

This study introduces a novel SI2HR model, where "I2" denotes two infectious classes representing asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, aiming to investigate and analyze the cost-effective optimal control measures for managing COVID-19. The model incorporates a novel concept of infectious density-induced additional screening (IDIAS) and accounts for treatment saturation. Furthermore, the model considers the possibility of reinfection and the loss of immunity in individuals who have previously recovered. To validate and calibrate the proposed model, real data from November-December 2022 in Hong Kong are utilized. The estimated parameters obtained from this calibration process are valuable for prediction purposes and facilitate further numerical simulations. An analysis of the model reveals that delays in screening, treatment, and quarantine contribute to an increase in the basic reproduction number R0, indicating a tendency towards endemicity. In particular, from the elasticity of R0, we deduce that normalized sensitivity indices of baseline screening rate (θ), quarantine rates (γ, αs), and treatment rate (α) are negative, which shows that delaying any of these may cause huge surge in R0, ultimately increases the disease burden. Further, by the contour plots, we note the two-parameter behavior of the infectives (both symptomatic and asymptomatic). Expanding upon the model analysis, an optimal control problem (OCP) is formulated, incorporating three control measures: precautionary interventions, boosted IDIAS, and boosted treatment. The Pontryagin's maximum principle and the forward-backward sweep method are employed to solve the OCP. The numerical simulations highlight that enhanced screening and treatment, coupled with preventive interventions, can effectively contribute to sustainable disease control. However, the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) conducted in this study suggests that boosting IDIAS alone is the most economically efficient and cost-effective approach compared to other strategies. The CEA results provide valuable insights into identifying specific strategies based on their cost-efficacy ranking, which can be implemented to maximize impact while minimizing costs. Overall, this research offers significant insights for policymakers and healthcare professionals, providing a framework to optimize control efforts for COVID-19 or similar epidemics in the future.

Public Opinion Through Art: Exploring Chinese University Students' Perspectives on COVID-19 Mass Nucleic Acid Testing

In the context of the global COVID-19 pandemic, this study focuses on Chinese university students, employing graphic elicitation as a qualitative research method to analyze their hand-drawn paintings and related descriptions. Augmented by A/r/tography and metacognitive methods, the research aims to unveil the participants' collective memory, as well as the perspectives and responses of these students to policies related to the pandemic. By specifically examining this particular demographic, the study incorporates Fairclough's ethical theory, applying deontological ethics, consequentialist ethics, and virtue ethics to establish a comprehensive framework for evaluating adjustments to pandemic response policies. This research not only enhances our understanding of how these university students perceive and adapt to COVID-19 policies but also provides valuable insights for decision-makers. The particular methodology, combining graphic elicitation and metacognitive research, contributes to policy assessment and ethical analysis, offering a nuanced perspective on the interplay between individual perceptions, policy responses, and ethical considerations amid the complexities of a public health crisis.

Limited efficacy of forward contact tracing in epidemics

Infectious diseases that spread silently through asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic infections represent a challenge for policy makers. A traditional way of achieving isolation of silent infectors from the community is through forward contact tracing, aimed at identifying individuals that might have been infected by a known infected person. In this work we investigate how efficient this measure is in preventing a disease from becoming endemic. We introduce an SIS-based compartmental model where symptomatic individuals may self-isolate and trigger a contact tracing process aimed at quarantining asymptomatic infected individuals. Imperfect adherence and delays affect both measures. We derive the epidemic threshold analytically and find that contact tracing alone can only lead to a very limited increase of the threshold. We quantify the effect of imperfect adherence and the impact of incentivizing asymptomatic and symptomatic populations to adhere to isolation. Our analytical results are confirmed by simulations on complex networks and by the numerical analysis of a much more complex model incorporating more realistic in-host disease progression.

Predictors of SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Severe and Lethal COVID-19 after Three Years of Follow-Up: A Population-Wide Study

In this cohort study, the general population of an Italian Province was followed for three years after the start of the pandemic, in order to identify the predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe or lethal COVID-19. All the National Healthcare System information on biographical records, vaccinations, SARS-CoV-2 swabs, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and co-pay exemptions were extracted from 25 February 2020 to 15 February 2023. Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to compute the relative hazards of infection and severe or lethal COVID-19, adjusting for age, gender, vaccine status, hypertension, diabetes, major cardiovascular diseases (CVD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), kidney disease or cancer. Among the 300,079 residents or domiciled citizens, 41.5% had ≥1 positive swabs during the follow-up (which lasted a mean of 932 days). A total of 3.67% of the infected individuals experienced severe COVID-19 (n = 4574) and 1.76% died (n = 2190). Females, the elderly and subjects with diabetes, CVD, COPD, kidney disease and cancer showed a significantly higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The likelihood of severe or lethal COVID-19 was >90% lower among the youngest, and all comorbidities were independently associated with a higher risk (ranging from +28% to +214%) of both outcomes. Two years after the start of the immunization campaign, the individuals who received ≥2 doses of COVID-19 vaccines still showed a significantly lower likelihood of severe or lethal disease, with the lowest risk observed among subjects who received at least one booster dose.

COVID-19 Vaccination Effectiveness in the General Population of an Italian Province: Two Years of Follow-Up

We carried out a cohort study on the overall population of the province of Pescara, Italy, to assess the real-world effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination against infection, severe, or lethal COVID-19, two years after the start of the vaccination campaign. We included all the resident or domiciled subjects, and extracted the official demographic, vaccination, COVID-19, hospital and co-pay exemption datasets from 1 January 2021, up to 15 February 2023. Cox proportional hazards analyses were adjusted for gender, age, diabetes, hypertension, COPD, major cardio- and cerebrovascular events, cancer, and kidney diseases. Throughout the follow-up (466 days on average), 186,676 subjects received greater than or equal to three vaccine doses (of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, NVX-CoV2373, or JNJ-78436735), 47,610 two doses, 11,452 one dose, and 44,989 none. Overall, 40.4% of subjects were infected with SARS-CoV-2. Of them, 2.74% had severe or lethal (1.30%) COVID-19. As compared to the unvaccinated, the individuals who received greater than or equal to one booster dose showed a ≥85% lower risk of severe or lethal COVID-19. A massive impact of vaccination was found among the elderly: 22.0% of the unvaccinated, infected individuals died, as opposed to less than 3% of those who received greater than or equal to three vaccine doses. No protection against infection was observed, although this finding was certainly influenced by the Italian restriction policies to control the pandemic. Importantly, during the Omicron predominance period, only the group who received at least a booster dose showed a reduced risk of COVID-19-related death.