Genotypic and spatial analysis of transmission dynamics of tuberculosis in Shanghai, China: a 10-year prospective population-based surveillance study

Spatial pattern of isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis and its associated factors among a population with migrants in China: a retrospective population-based study

Background

Isoniazid-resistant, rifampicin-susceptible tuberculosis (Hr-TB) globally exhibits a high prevalence and serves as a potential precursor to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Recognizing the spatial distribution of Hr-TB and identifying associated factors can provide strategic entry points for interventions aimed at early detection of Hr-TB and prevention of its progression to MDR-TB. This study aims to analyze spatial patterns and identify socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare factors associated with Hr-TB in Shanghai at the county level.

Method

We conducted a retrospective study utilizing data from TB patients with available Drug Susceptible Test (DST) results in Shanghai from 2010 to 2016. Spatial autocorrelation was explored using Global Moran's I and Getis-Ord G i ∗ statistics. A Bayesian hierarchical model with spatial effects was developed using the INLA package in R software to identify potential factors associated with Hr-TB at the county level.

Results

A total of 8,865 TB patients with DST were included in this analysis. Among 758 Hr-TB patients, 622 (82.06%) were new cases without any previous treatment history. The drug-resistant rate of Hr-TB among new TB cases in Shanghai stood at 7.20% (622/8014), while for previously treated cases, the rate was 15.98% (136/851). Hotspot areas of Hr-TB were predominantly situated in southwestern Shanghai. Factors positively associated with Hr-TB included the percentage of older adult individuals (RR = 3.93, 95% Crl:1.93-8.03), the percentage of internal migrants (RR = 1.35, 95% Crl:1.15-1.35), and the number of healthcare institutions per 100 population (RR = 1.17, 95% Crl:1.02-1.34).

Conclusion

We observed a spatial heterogeneity of Hr-TB in Shanghai, with hotspots in the Songjiang and Minhang districts. Based on the results of the models, the internal migrant population and older adult individuals in Shanghai may be contributing factors to the emergence of areas with high Hr-TB notification rates. Given these insights, we advocate for targeted interventions, especially in identified high-risk hotspots and high-risk areas.

Performance evaluation of core genome multilocus sequence typing for genotyping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains in China: based on multicenter, population-based collection

PURPOSE

To evaluate the performance of core genome multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST) for genotyping Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tuberculosis) Strains in regions where the lineage 2 strains predominate.

METHODS

We compared clustering by whole-genome SNP typing with cgMLST clustering in the analysis of WGS data of 6240 strains from five regions of China. Using both the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and epidemiological investigation to determine the optimal threshold for defining genomic clustering by cgMLST. The performance of cgMLST was evaluated by quantifying the sensitivity, specificity and concordance of clustering between two methods. Logistic regression was used to gauge the impact of strain genetic diversity and lineage on cgMLST clustering.

RESULTS

The optimal threshold for cgMLST to define genomic clustering was determined to be ≤ 10 allelic differences between strains. The overall sensitivity and specificity of cgMLST averaged 99.6% and 96.3%, respectively; the concordance of clustering between two methods averaged 97.1%. Concordance was significantly correlated with strain genetic diversity and was 3.99 times (95% CI, 2.94-5.42) higher in regions with high genetic diversity (π > 1.55 × 10-4) compared to regions with low genetic diversity. The difference missed statistical significance, while concordance for lineage 2 strains (96.8%) was less than that for lineage 4 strains (98.3%). CONCLUSION : cgMLST showed a discriminatory power comparable to whole-genome SNP typing and could be used to genotype clinical M.tuberculosis strains in different regions of China. The discriminative power of cgMLST was significantly correlated with strain genetic diversity and was slightly lower with strains from regions with low genetic diversity.