Risk acceptance criterion for tanker oil spill risk reduction measures

Cost-effectiveness of measures to reduce ship strikes: A case study on protecting the Mediterranean fin whale

Collisions between ships and whales can pose a significant threat to the survival of some whale populations. The lack of robust and holistic assessments of the consequences of mitigation solutions often leads to poor compliance from the shipping industry. To overcome this, several papers support a regulatory approach to the management of whale-ship collisions through the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the UN agency responsible for maritime affairs. According to the IMO risk assessment approach, in order to compare the costs of implementing mitigation solutions and their benefits, there is a need for a well-defined risk evaluation criterion. To define such a criterion for whales, we have used an ecological-economic framework based on existence values and conservation objectives. As an illustration, we have applied our framework to the Mediterranean fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) population and determined the cost of averting a whale fatality as a proxy for the societal benefits. More precisely, we have estimated the 'Cost of averting a Mediterranean fin whale fatality' of 562,462 (in 2017 US dollars); this corresponds to 637,790 USD when converted to 2021 US dollars. The societal benefits of solutions that reduce the risk to whales could therefore be weighed against the costs of shipping companies to implement such measures. This could lead to assessments that are more transparent and the introduction of mandatory measures to reduce ship strikes.

Risk-Acceptance Criteria in Occupational Health and Safety Risk-Assessment—The State-of-the-Art through a Systematic Literature Review

The utilization of risk acceptance criteria (RAC) can help a business to judge whether the risk level concerning any process involved in its working environment is acceptable or not, especially when the risk has a significant societal impact. Thus, the main intention of this study is to make known the current state-of-the-art concerning RACs and to propose new interpretations of it by surveying, for first time, the scientific literature about the RACs associated with the occupational health and safety (OHS) risk-assessment methodologies (RAA). A second objective of this work is the attainment of a prediction for the evolution of the quantity of the publications concerning OHS-RACs, and a third one is the derivation of an algorithm (via a flow-chart) in order to illustrate the process of the formation of new OHS-RACs. The work consists of two parts, (a) exploring and presenting methods of developing RACs in OHS; (b) classifying, analyzing, and benchmarking relevant published scientific articles by surveying the Scopus data base with proper search-hints, through a time interval of 20 years (January2000–December 2019). The review has defined a plethora of RAC-papers with reference to OHS, which is a remarkable percentage in comparison with the other fields aggregated, and this outcome proves that the issue of utilizing RACs is fundamental for the field of OHS. Additionally, it has been deduced that, day after day, there is an increasing tendency for the scientific community to develop and use RACs in the field of occupational safety, as this is evident by their frequent reference to the risk analysis and assessment (RAA) process. Our specific research methodology has been compatible with the PRISMA protocol. A prediction for the evolution of the quantity of the OHS-RAC publications is also given by confirming the Poisson stochastic process. Finally, we propose a generic guideline framework that can contribute to the establishment of new empirically-generated OHS-RACs.

A risk management framework for maritime Pollution Preparedness and Response: Concepts, processes and tools

Several risk management frameworks have been introduced in the literature for maritime Pollution Preparedness and Response (PPR). However, in light of the actual needs of the competent authorities, there is still a lack of framework that is established on a sound risk conceptual basis, addresses the different risk management decision-making contexts of organizations, and provides tools for various risk management questions of this field. To alleviate the limits of existing approaches, this paper introduces a new risk management framework for this purpose, which was developed in cooperation with the competent authorities and other maritime experts. The framework adopts the risk-informed decision-making strategy and includes three aligned components. The first component provides a unified theoretical risk concept to the framework through an interpretation of the Society for Risk Analysis risk approach. The second consists of four ISO 31000:2018 standard based processes focused on different risk management decision-making contexts of the PPR organizations. The third comprises a set of practical risk assessment tools to generate the needed information. A case study provides an example of the functionality of this framework with integrated data from the northern Baltic Sea. To conclude, a risk concept is provided for the PPR authorities and their stakeholders as well as processes for managing the risk and tools for its assessment.

Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China

Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21–40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents.

A probabilistic approach for a cost-benefit analysis of oil spill management under uncertainty: A Bayesian network model for the Gulf of Finland

Large-scale oil accidents can inflict substantial costs to the society, as they typically result in expensive oil combating and waste treatment operations and have negative impacts on recreational and environmental values. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) offers a way to assess the economic efficiency of management measures capable of mitigating the adverse effects. However, the irregular occurrence of spills combined with uncertainties related to the possible effects makes the analysis a challenging task. We develop a probabilistic modeling approach for a CBA of oil spill management and apply it in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea. The model has a causal structure, and it covers a large number of factors relevant to the realistic description of oil spills, as well as the costs of oil combating operations at open sea, shoreline clean-up, and waste treatment activities. Further, to describe the effects on environmental benefits, we use data from a contingent valuation survey. The results encourage seeking for cost-effective preventive measures, and emphasize the importance of the inclusion of the costs related to waste treatment and environmental values in the analysis. Although the model is developed for a specific area, the methodology is applicable also to other areas facing the risk of oil spills as well as to other fields that need to cope with the challenging combination of low probabilities, high losses and major uncertainties.

Disutility analysis of oil spills: graphs and trends

This paper reports the results of an analysis of oil spill cost data assembled from a worldwide pollution database that mainly includes data from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund. The purpose of the study is to analyze the conditions of marine pollution accidents and the factors that impact the costs of oil spills worldwide. The accidents are classified into categories based on their characteristics, and the cases are compared using charts to show how the costs are affected under all conditions. This study can be used as a helpful reference for developing a detailed statistical model that is capable of reliably and realistically estimating the total costs of oil spills. To illustrate the differences identified by this statistical analysis, the results are compared with the results of previous studies, and the findings are discussed.

A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs--a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

An expected consequence approach to route choice in the maritime transportation of crude oil

Maritime transportation is the major conduit of international trade, and the primary link for global crude oil movement. Given the volume of oil transported on international maritime links, it is not surprising that oil spills of both minor and major types result, although most of the risk-related work has been confined to the local settings. We propose an expected consequence approach for assessing oil-spill risk from intercontinental transportation of crude oil that not only adheres to the safety guidelines specified by the International Maritime Organization but also outlines a novel technique that makes use of coarse global data to estimate accident probabilities. The proposed estimation technique, together with four of the most popular cost-of-spill models from the literature, were applied to study and analyze a realistic size problem instance. Numerical analyses showed that: a shorter route may not necessarily be less risky; an understanding of the inherent oil-spill risk of different routes could potentially facilitate tanker routing decisions; and the associated negotiations over insurance premium between the transport company and the not-for-profit prevention and indemnity clubs. Finally, we note that only the linear model should be used with one of the three nonlinear cost-of-spill models for evaluating tanker routes.