Factors Associated With Severe COVID-19 Infection Among Persons of Different Ages Living in a Defined Midwestern US Population

Development and external validation of the DOAT and DOATS scores: simple decision support tools to identify disease progression among nonelderly patients with mild/moderate COVID-19

BACKGROUND

During the fifth wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Japan, which took place between June and September 2021, a significant number of COVID-19 cases with deterioration occurred in unvaccinated individuals < 65 years old. However, the risk factors for COVID-19 deterioration in this specific population have not yet been determined. This study developed a prediction method to identify COVID-19 patients < 65 years old who are at a high risk of deterioration.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed data from 1,675 patients < 65 years old who were admitted to acute care institutions in Fukushima with mild-to-moderate-1 COVID-19 based on the Japanese disease severity criteria prior to the fifth wave. For validation, 324 similar patients were enrolled from 3 hospitals in Yamagata. Logistic regression analyses using cluster-robust variance estimation were used to determine predictors of disease deterioration, followed by creation of risk prediction scores. Disease deterioration was defined as the initiation of medication for COVID-19, oxygen inhalation, or mechanical ventilation starting one day or later after admission.

RESULTS

The patients whose condition deteriorated (8.6%) tended to be older, male, have histories of smoking, and have high body temperatures, low oxygen saturation values, and comorbidities, such as diabetes/obesity and hypertension. Stepwise variable selection using logistic regression to predict COVID-19 deterioration retained comorbidities of diabetes/obesity (DO), age (A), body temperature (T), and oxygen saturation (S). Two predictive scores were created based on the optimism-corrected regression coefficients: the DOATS score, including all of the above risk factors, and the DOAT score, which was the DOATS score without oxygen saturation. In the original cohort, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCs) of the DOATS and DOAT scores were 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.85) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84), respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUROCs for each score were both 0.76 (95% CI 0.69-0.83), and the calibration slopes were both 0.80. A decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical practicability of both scores in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

We established two prediction scores that can quickly evaluate the risk of COVID-19 deterioration in mild/moderate patients < 65 years old.

Host nasopharyngeal transcriptome dataset of a SARS-CoV-2 positive Italian cohort

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has affected millions of people worldwide and has significant implications for public health. Host transcriptomics profiling provides comprehensive understanding of how the virus interacts with host cells and how the host responds to the virus. COVID-19 disease alters the host transcriptome, affecting cellular pathways and key molecular functions. To contribute to the global effort to understand the virus's effect on host cell transcriptome, we have generated a dataset from nasopharyngeal swabs of 35 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 from the Campania region in Italy during the three outbreaks, with different clinical conditions. This dataset will help to elucidate the complex interactions among genes and can be useful in the development of effective therapeutic pathways.

A Meta-Analysis on the Association between Peptic Ulcer Disease and COVID-19 Severity

The association between peptic ulcer disease and the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is inconclusive across individual studies. Thus, this study aimed to investigate whether there was a significant association between peptic ulcer disease and COVID-19 severity through a meta-analysis. The electronic databases (Web of Science, Wiley, Springer, EMBASE, Elsevier, Cochrane Library, Scopus and PubMed) were retrieved for all eligible studies. The Stata 11.2 software was used for all statistical analyses. The pooled odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated by a random-effects meta-analysis model. The heterogeneity was evaluated by the inconsistency index (I²) and Cochran's Q test. Egger's analysis and Begg's analysis were conducted to evaluate the publication bias. Meta-regression analysis and subgroup analysis were done to explore the potential source of heterogeneity. Totally, our findings based on confounding variables-adjusted data indicated that there was no significant association between peptic ulcer disease and the higher risk for COVID-19 severity (pooled OR = 1.17, 95% CI: 0.97-1.41) based on 15 eligible studies with 4,533,426 participants. When the subgroup analysis was performed by age (mean or median), there was a significant association between peptic ulcer disease and a higher risk for COVID-19 severity among studies with age ≥ 60 years old (pooled OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.01-1.32), but not among studies with age < 60 years old (pooled OR = 1.16, 95% CI: 0.89-1.50). Our meta-analysis showed that there was a significant association between peptic ulcer disease and a higher risk for COVID-19 severity among older patients but not among younger patients.

Serum butyrylcholinesterase as a marker of COVID-19 mortality: Results of the monocentric prospective observational study

The COVID-19 pandemic represents an excessive burden on health care systems worldwide and the number of patients who require special care in the clinical setting is often hard to predict. Consequently, there is an unmet need for a reliable biomarker that could predict clinical outcomes of high-risk patients. Lower serum butyrylcholinesterase (BChE) activity was recently linked with poor outcomes of COVID-19 patients. In line with this, our monocentric observational study on hospitalized COVID-19 patients focused on changes in serum BChE activity in relation to disease progression. Blood samples from 148 adult patients of both sexes were collected during their hospital stay at the Clinics of Infectiology and Clinics of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care, Trnava University Hospital in alignment with routine blood tests. Sera were analyzed using modified Ellman's method. Patient data with information about the health status, comorbidities and other blood parameters were collected in pseudonymized form. Our results show a lower serum BChE activity together with progressive decline of BChE activity in non-survivors, while higher stable values were present in discharged or transferred patients requiring further care. Lower BChE activity was associated with higher age and lower BMI. Moreover, we observed a negative correlation of serum BChE activity with the routinely used inflammatory markers, C-reactive protein and interleukin-6. Serum BChE activity mirrored clinical outcomes of COVID-19 patients and thus serves as a novel prognostic marker in high-risk patients.

Neurological Manifestations of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Hospitalized Patients: A Lebanese Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Concerns regarding potential neurologic complications of COVID-19 are being increasingly reported worldwide. Our objective was to investigate the neurologic complications of COVID-19 among a cohort of Lebanese patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to Rafik Hariri University Hospital (RHUH), the leading COVID-19 testing and treatment center in Lebanon.

METHODS

This is a retrospective, single-center, observational study conducted from March to July 2020 at RHUH, Lebanon.

RESULTS

Of 169 hospitalized patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (mean {SD} age was 45.75 {19} years and 62.7% were men), 91 patients (53.8%) had severe infection and 78 patients (46.2%) had non-severe infection according to the American Thoracic Society guidelines for community-acquired pneumonia. Overall, 112 patients (66.3%) developed neurologic symptoms: CNS (46.1%), PNS (43.7%), and skeletal muscle injury (2.4%). Compared with patients with non-severe infection, patients with severe infection were significantly older, were male and more likely to have underlying disorders, especially diabetes and cardiac or cerebrovascular disease. Moreover, those patients experienced more typical COVID-19 symptoms at onset of illness such as fever, cough and fatigue. However, there was no significant difference in the frequency of all nervous system manifestations between the severe and the non-severe infection groups (57 {62.6%} vs 55 {70.5%}; p =0.316), except for impaired consciousness, where seven patients had impaired consciousness in the severe group compared to none in the non-severe group (p=0.012).

CONCLUSION

A wide variety of neurologic symptoms were detected in our Lebanese cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. A comprehensive knowledge of the neurologic manifestations will help healthcare providers to be more attentive to these complications.

Usefulness of linked data for infectious disease events: a systematic review

Surveillance is a key public health function to enable early detection of infectious disease events and inform public health action. Data linkage may improve the depth of data for response to infectious disease events. This study aimed to describe the uses of linked data for infectious disease events. A systematic review was conducted using Pubmed, CINAHL and Web of Science. Studies were included if they used data linkage for an acute infectious disease event (e.g. outbreak of disease). We summarised the event, study aims and designs; data sets; linkage methods; outcomes reported; and benefits and limitations. Fifty-four studies were included. Uses of linkage for infectious disease events included assessment of severity of disease and risk factors; improved case finding and contact tracing; and vaccine uptake, safety and effectiveness. The ability to conduct larger scale population level studies was identified as a benefit, in particular for rarer exposures, risk factors or outcomes. Limitations included timeliness, data quality and inability to collect additional variables. This review demonstrated multiple uses of data linkage for infectious disease events. As infectious disease events occur without warning, there is a need to establish pre-approved protocols and the infrastructure for data-linkage to enhance information available during an event.

Associations between chronic conditions and death in hospital among adults (aged 20+ years) during first acute care hospitalizations with a confirmed or suspected COVID-19 diagnosis in Canada

PURPOSE

We aimed to quantify life course-specific associations between death in hospital and 30 chronic conditions, and comorbidity among them, in adults (aged 20+ years) during their first acute care hospitalization with a confirmed or suspected COVID-19 diagnosis in Canada.

METHODS

We identified 35,519 first acute care hospitalizations with a confirmed or suspected COVID-19 diagnosis in the Discharge Abstract Database as of March 31, 2021. For each of five life-course age groups (20-34, 35-49, 50-64, 65-79, and 80+ years), we used multivariable logistic regression to examine associations between death in hospital and 30 chronic conditions, comorbidity, period of admission, and pregnant status, after adjusting for sex and age.

RESULTS

About 20.9% of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 died in hospital. Conditions most strongly associated with in-hospital death varied across the life course. Chronic liver disease, other nervous system disorders, and obesity were statistically significantly associated (α = 0.05) with in-hospital death in the 20-34 to 65-79 year age groups, but the magnitude of the associations decreased as age increased. Stroke (aOR = 5.24, 95% CI: 2.63, 9.83) and other inflammatory rheumatic diseases (aOR = 4.37, 95% CI: 1.64, 10.26) were significantly associated with in-hospital death among 35 to 49 year olds only. Among 50+ year olds, more chronic conditions were significantly associated with in-hospital death, but the magnitude of the associations were generally weaker except for Down syndrome in the 50 to 64 (aOR = 8.49, 95% CI: 4.28, 16.28) and 65 to 79 year age groups (aOR = 5.19, 95% CI: 1.44, 20.91). Associations between comorbidity and death also attenuated with age. Among 20 to 34 year olds, the likelihood of death was 19 times greater (aOR = 18.69, 95% CI: 7.69, 48.24) in patients with three or more conditions compared to patients with none of the conditions, while for 80+ year olds the likelihood of death was two times greater (aOR = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.70, 2.45) for patients with six or more conditions compared to patients with none of the conditions.

CONCLUSION

Conditions most strongly associated with in-hospital death among hospitalized adults with COVID-19 vary across the life course, and the impact of chronic conditions and comorbidity attenuate with age.

Rates of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Infection and Associated Factors in Olmsted County, Minnesota, in the Prevaccination Era

Objective

To estimate rates and identify factors associated with asymptomatic COVID-19 in the population of Olmsted County during the prevaccination era.

Patients and Methods

We screened first responders (n=191) and Olmsted County employees (n=564) for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 from November 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021 to estimate seroprevalence and asymptomatic infection. Second, we retrieved all polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses in Olmsted County from March 2020 through January 2021, abstracted symptom information, estimated rates of asymptomatic infection and examined related factors.

Results

Twenty (10.5%; 95% CI, 6.9%-15.6%) first responders and 38 (6.7%; 95% CI, 5.0%-9.1%) county employees had positive antibodies; an additional 5 (2.6%) and 10 (1.8%) had prior positive PCR tests per self-report or medical record, but no antibodies detected. Of persons with symptom information, 4 of 20 (20%; 95% CI, 3.0%-37.0%) first responders and 10 of 39 (26%; 95% CI, 12.6%-40.0%) county employees were asymptomatic. Of 6020 positive PCR tests in Olmsted County with symptom information between March 1, 2020, and January 31, 2021, 6% (n=385; 95% CI, 5.8%-7.1%) were asymptomatic. Factors associated with asymptomatic disease included age (0-18 years [odds ratio {OR}, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.7-3.1] and >65 years [OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.0-2.0] compared with ages 19-44 years), body mass index (overweight [OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.44-0.77] or obese [OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.57-0.62] compared with normal or underweight) and tests after November 20, 2020 ([OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.13-1.71] compared with prior dates).

Conclusion

Asymptomatic rates in Olmsted County before COVID-19 vaccine rollout ranged from 6% to 25%, and younger age, normal weight, and later tests dates were associated with asymptomatic infection.

Clinical predictors of lung function in patients recovering from mild COVID-19

Background

Few studies have assessed lung function in Hispanic subjects recovering from mild COVID-19. Therefore, we examined the prevalence of impaired pulmonary diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) as defined by values below the lower limit of normal (< LLN, < 5th percentile) or less than 80% of predicted in Hispanics recovering from mild COVID-19. We also examined the prevalence of a restrictive spirometric pattern as defined by the ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁) to forced vital capacity (FVC) being ≥ LLN with the FVC being < LLN. Finally, we evaluated previous studies to find factors correlated to impaired DLCO post-COVID-19.

Methods

In this observational study, adult patients (n = 146) with mild COVID-19 were recruited from a long-term follow-up COVID-19 clinic in Yucatan, Mexico, between March and August 2021. Spirometry, DLCO, and self-reported signs/symptoms were recorded 34 ± 4 days after diagnosis.

Results

At post-evaluation, 20% and 30% of patients recovering from COVID-19 were classified as having a restrictive spirometric pattern and impaired DLCO, respectively; 13% had both. The most prevalent reported symptoms were fatigue (73%), a persistent cough (43%), shortness of breath (42%) and a blocked/runny nose (36%). Increased age and a restrictive spirometric pattern increased the probability of having an impaired DLCO while having a blocked nose and excessive sweating decreased the likelihood. The proportion of patients with previous mild COVID-19 and impaired DLCO increased by 13% when the definition of impaired DLCO was < 80% predicted instead of below the LLN. When comparing previous studies, having severe COVID-19 increased the proportion of those with impaired DLCO by 21% compared to those with mild COVID-19.

Conclusions

One-third of patients with mild COVID-19 have impaired DLCO thirty-four days post-diagnosis. The criteria that define impaired DLCO and the severity of COVID-19 disease affects the proportion of those with impaired DLCO at follow-up. One-fifth of patients have a restrictive spirometric pattern.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-022-02086-9.

Vitamin D status and severity of COVID-19

We explored the association between COVID-19 severity and vitamin D status using information from Danish nation-wide health registers, the COVID-19 surveillance database and stored blood samples from the national biobank. 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) was measured using tandem mass spectroscopy. The association between 25(OH)D levels and COVID-19 severity, classified hierarchical as non-hospitalized, hospitalized but not admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU), admitted to ICU, and death, was evaluated by proportional odds ratios (POR) assuming proportionality between the four degrees of severity. Among 447 adults tested SARS-CoV-2 positive in the spring of 2020, low levels of 25(OH)D were associated with a higher risk of severe COVID-19. Thus, odds of experiencing more severe COVID-19 among individuals with insufficient (25 to < 50 nmol/L) and sufficient (≥ 50 nmol/L) 25(OH)D levels were approximately 50% of that among individuals with deficient levels (< 25 nmol/L) (POR = 0.49 (95% CI 0.25-0.94), POR = 0.51 (95% CI 0.27-0.96), respectively). Dividing sufficient vitamin D levels into 50 to < 75 nmol/L and ≥ 75 nmol/L revealed no additional beneficial effect of higher 25(OH)D levels. In this observational study, low levels of 25(OH)D were associated with a higher risk of severe COVID-19. A possible therapeutic role of vitamin D should be evaluated in well-designed interventional studies.

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody levels among Thai healthcare providers receiving homologous and heterologous COVID-19 vaccination regimens

BACKGROUND

We examined SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike 1 IgG antibody levels following COVID-19 vaccination (AstraZeneca [AZ], Sinovac [SV], Pfizer-BioNTech [PZ]) among Thai healthcare providers.

METHODS

Blood specimens were tested using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. We analyzed seven vaccination regimens: (1) one dose of AZ or SV, (2) two doses of homologous (2AZ, 2SV) or heterologous (1AZ + 1PZ) vaccines, and (3) three doses of heterologous vaccines (2SV + 1AZ, 2SV + 1PZ). Differences in antibody levels were assessed using Kruskal-Wallis statistic, Mann-Whitney test, or Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-rank test. Antibody kinetics were predicted using fractional polynomial regression.

RESULTS

The 563 participants had median age of 39 years; 92% were female; 74% reported no underlying medical condition. Antibody levels peaked at 22-23 days in both 1AZ and 2SV vaccinees and dropped below assay's cutoff for positive (35.2 binding antibody units/ml [BAU/ml]) in 55 days among 1AZ vaccinees compared with 117 days among 2SV vaccinees. 1AZ + 1PZ vaccination regimen was highly immunogenic (median 2279 BAU/ml) 1-4 weeks post vaccination. 2SV + 1PZ vaccinees had significantly higher antibody levels than 2SV + 1AZ vaccinees 4 weeks post vaccination (3423 vs. 2105 BAU/ml; p-value < 0.01), and during weeks 5-8 (3656 vs. 1072 BAU/ml; p-value < 0.01). Antibodies peaked at 12-15 days in both 2SV + 1PZ and 2SV + 1AZ vaccinees, but those of 2SV + 1AZ declined more rapidly and dropped below assay's cutoff in 228 days while those of 2SV + 1PZ remained detectable.

CONCLUSIONS

1AZ + 1PZ, 2SV + 1AZ, and 2SV + 1PZ vaccinees had substantial IgG levels, suggesting that these individuals likely mounted sufficient anti-S1 IgG antibodies for possible protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection.