Moment closure approximations for stochastic kinetic models with rational rate laws

Revisiting moment-closure methods with heterogeneous multiscale population models

Stochastic chemical kinetics at the single-cell level give rise to heterogeneous populations of cells even when all individuals are genetically identical. This heterogeneity can lead to nonuniform behaviour within populations, including different growth characteristics, cell-fate dynamics, and response to stimuli. Ultimately, these diverse behaviours lead to intricate population dynamics that are inherently multiscale: the population composition evolves based on population-level processes that interact with stochastically distributed single-cell states. Therefore, descriptions that account for this heterogeneity are essential to accurately model and control chemical processes. However, for real-world systems such models are computationally expensive to simulate, which can make optimisation problems, such as optimal control or parameter inference, prohibitively challenging. Here, we consider a class of multiscale population models that incorporate population-level mechanisms while remaining faithful to the underlying stochasticity at the single-cell level and the interplay between these two scales. To address the complexity, we study an order-reduction approximations based on the distribution moments. Since previous moment-closure work has focused on the single-cell kinetics, extending these techniques to populations models prompts us to revisit old observations as well as tackle new challenges. In this extended multiscale context, we encounter the previously established observation that the simplest closure techniques can lead to non-physical system trajectories. Despite their poor performance in some systems, we provide an example where these simple closures outperform more sophisticated closure methods in accurately, efficiently, and robustly solving the problem of optimal control of bioproduction in a microbial consortium model.

Stochastic dynamics of predator-prey interactions

The interaction between a consumer (such as, a predator or a parasitoid) and a resource (such as, a prey or a host) forms an integral motif in ecological food webs, and has been modeled since the early 20th century starting from the seminal work of Lotka and Volterra. While the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model predicts a neutrally stable equilibrium with oscillating population densities, a density-dependent predator attack rate is known to stabilize the equilibrium. Here, we consider a stochastic formulation of the Lotka-Volterra model where the prey's reproduction rate is a random process, and the predator's attack rate depends on both the prey and predator population densities. Analysis shows that increasing the sensitivity of the attack rate to the prey density attenuates the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations in the population densities. In contrast, these fluctuations vary non-monotonically with the sensitivity of the attack rate to the predator density with an optimal level of sensitivity minimizing the magnitude of fluctuations. Interestingly, our systematic study of the predator-prey correlations reveals distinct signatures depending on the form of the density-dependent attack rate. In summary, stochastic dynamics of nonlinear Lotka-Volterra models can be harnessed to infer density-dependent mechanisms regulating predator-prey interactions. Moreover, these mechanisms can have contrasting consequences on population density fluctuations, with predator-dependent attack rates amplifying stochasticity, while prey-dependent attack rates countering to buffer fluctuations.

Moment dynamics for gene regulation with rational rate laws

This aim of this paper is mainly to investigate the performance of two typical moment closure schemes in gene regulatory master equations of rational rate laws. When the reaction rate is polynomial, the error bounds between the authentic and approximate moments obtained by schemes of Gaussian moment closure and log-normal moment closure are explicitly given. When the reaction rate is not polynomial, it is shown that the two schemes both behave well in the absence of active-inactive state switch, but in the presence of active-inactive state switch the log-normal closure scheme is far superior to the Gaussian closure scheme in capturing the asymptotic ensemble statistics. Moreover, the accuracy of the log-normal closure method is further confirmed by steady-state analytic results and the conditional Gaussian closure method. It is also disclosed that optimal negative feedback exists in suppressing protein noise in the presence of the on-off switch control.

Antithetic proportional-integral feedback for reduced variance and improved control performance of stochastic reaction networks

The ability of a cell to regulate and adapt its internal state in response to unpredictable environmental changes is called homeostasis and this ability is crucial for the cell's survival and proper functioning. Understanding how cells can achieve homeostasis, despite the intrinsic noise or randomness in their dynamics, is fundamentally important for both systems and synthetic biology. In this context, a significant development is the proposed antithetic integral feedback (AIF) motif, which is found in natural systems, and is known to ensure robust perfect adaptation for the mean dynamics of a given molecular species involved in a complex stochastic biomolecular reaction network. From the standpoint of applications, one drawback of this motif is that it often leads to an increased cell-to-cell heterogeneity or variance when compared to a constitutive (i.e. open-loop) control strategy. Our goal in this paper is to show that this performance deterioration can be countered by combining the AIF motif and a negative feedback strategy. Using a tailored moment closure method, we derive approximate expressions for the stationary variance for the controlled network that demonstrate that increasing the strength of the negative feedback can indeed decrease the variance, sometimes even below its constitutive level. Numerical results verify the accuracy of these results and we illustrate them by considering three biomolecular networks with two types of negative feedback strategies. Our computational analysis indicates that there is a trade-off between the speed of the settling-time of the mean trajectories and the stationary variance of the controlled species; i.e. smaller variance is associated with larger settling-time.

Exact lower and upper bounds on stationary moments in stochastic biochemical systems

In the stochastic description of biochemical reaction systems, the time evolution of statistical moments for species population counts is described by a linear dynamical system. However, except for some ideal cases (such as zero- and first-order reaction kinetics), the moment dynamics is underdetermined as lower-order moments depend upon higher-order moments. Here, we propose a novel method to find exact lower and upper bounds on stationary moments for a given arbitrary system of biochemical reactions. The method exploits the fact that statistical moments of any positive-valued random variable must satisfy some constraints that are compactly represented through the positive semidefiniteness of moment matrices. Our analysis shows that solving moment equations at steady state in conjunction with constraints on moment matrices provides exact lower and upper bounds on the moments. These results are illustrated by three different examples-the commonly used logistic growth model, stochastic gene expression with auto-regulation and an activator-repressor gene network motif. Interestingly, in all cases the accuracy of the bounds is shown to improve as moment equations are expanded to include higher-order moments. Our results provide avenues for development of approximation methods that provide explicit bounds on moments for nonlinear stochastic systems that are otherwise analytically intractable.

Sparse Regression Based Structure Learning of Stochastic Reaction Networks from Single Cell Snapshot Time Series

Stochastic chemical reaction networks constitute a model class to quantitatively describe dynamics and cell-to-cell variability in biological systems. The topology of these networks typically is only partially characterized due to experimental limitations. Current approaches for refining network topology are based on the explicit enumeration of alternative topologies and are therefore restricted to small problem instances with almost complete knowledge. We propose the reactionet lasso, a computational procedure that derives a stepwise sparse regression approach on the basis of the Chemical Master Equation, enabling large-scale structure learning for reaction networks by implicitly accounting for billions of topology variants. We have assessed the structure learning capabilities of the reactionet lasso on synthetic data for the complete TRAIL induced apoptosis signaling cascade comprising 70 reactions. We find that the reactionet lasso is able to efficiently recover the structure of these reaction systems, ab initio, with high sensitivity and specificity. With only < 1% false discoveries, the reactionet lasso is able to recover 45% of all true reactions ab initio among > 6000 possible reactions and over 10²⁰⁰⁰ network topologies. In conjunction with information rich single cell technologies such as single cell RNA sequencing or mass cytometry, the reactionet lasso will enable large-scale structure learning, particularly in areas with partial network structure knowledge, such as cancer biology, and thereby enable the detection of pathological alterations of reaction networks. We provide software to allow for wide applicability of the reactionet lasso.

Virtually all biological processes are driven by biochemical reactions. However, their quantitative description in terms of stochastic chemical reaction networks is often precluded by the computational difficulty of structure learning, i.e. the identification of biologically active reaction networks among the combinatorially many possible topologies. This work describes the reactionet lasso, a structure learning approach that takes advantage of novel, information-rich single cell data and a tractable problem formulation to achieve structure learning for problem instances hundreds of orders of magnitude larger than previously reported. This approach opens the prospect of obtaining quantitative and predictive reaction models in many areas of biology and medicine, and in particular areas such as cancer biology, which are characterized by significant system alterations and many unknown reactions.

Stochastic simulation in systems biology

Natural systems are, almost by definition, heterogeneous: this can be either a boon or an obstacle to be overcome, depending on the situation. Traditionally, when constructing mathematical models of these systems, heterogeneity has typically been ignored, despite its critical role. However, in recent years, stochastic computational methods have become commonplace in science. They are able to appropriately account for heterogeneity; indeed, they are based around the premise that systems inherently contain at least one source of heterogeneity (namely, intrinsic heterogeneity). In this mini-review, we give a brief introduction to theoretical modelling and simulation in systems biology and discuss the three different sources of heterogeneity in natural systems. Our main topic is an overview of stochastic simulation methods in systems biology. There are many different types of stochastic methods. We focus on one group that has become especially popular in systems biology, biochemistry, chemistry and physics. These discrete-state stochastic methods do not follow individuals over time; rather they track only total populations. They also assume that the volume of interest is spatially homogeneous. We give an overview of these methods, with a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each, and suggest when each is more appropriate to use. We also include references to software implementations of them, so that beginners can quickly start using stochastic methods for practical problems of interest.

Moment fitting for parameter inference in repeatedly and partially observed stochastic biological models

The inference of reaction rate parameters in biochemical network models from time series concentration data is a central task in computational systems biology. Under the assumption of well mixed conditions the network dynamics are typically described by the chemical master equation, the Fokker Planck equation, the linear noise approximation or the macroscopic rate equation. The inverse problem of estimating the parameters of the underlying network model can be approached in deterministic and stochastic ways, and available methods often compare individual or mean concentration traces obtained from experiments with theoretical model predictions when maximizing likelihoods, minimizing regularized least squares functionals, approximating posterior distributions or sequentially processing the data. In this article we assume that the biological reaction network can be observed at least partially and repeatedly over time such that sample moments of species molecule numbers for various time points can be calculated from the data. Based on the chemical master equation we furthermore derive closed systems of parameter dependent nonlinear ordinary differential equations that predict the time evolution of the statistical moments. For inferring the reaction rate parameters we suggest to not only compare the sample mean with the theoretical mean prediction but also to take the residual of higher order moments explicitly into account. Cost functions that involve residuals of higher order moments may form landscapes in the parameter space that have more pronounced curvatures at the minimizer and hence may weaken or even overcome parameter sloppiness and uncertainty. As a consequence both deterministic and stochastic parameter inference algorithms may be improved with respect to accuracy and efficiency. We demonstrate the potential of moment fitting for parameter inference by means of illustrative stochastic biological models from the literature and address topics for future research.

Stochastic simulation of chemically reacting systems using multi-core processors

In recent years, computer simulations have become increasingly useful when trying to understand the complex dynamics of biochemical networks, particularly in stochastic systems. In such situations stochastic simulation is vital in gaining an understanding of the inherent stochasticity present, as these models are rarely analytically tractable. However, a stochastic approach can be computationally prohibitive for many models. A number of approximations have been proposed that aim to speed up stochastic simulations. However, the majority of these approaches are fundamentally serial in terms of central processing unit (CPU) usage. In this paper, we propose a novel simulation algorithm that utilises the potential of multi-core machines. This algorithm partitions the model into smaller sub-models. These sub-models are then simulated, in parallel, on separate CPUs. We demonstrate that this method is accurate and can speed-up the simulation by a factor proportional to the number of processors available.

Constructing stochastic models from deterministic process equations by propensity adjustment

Background

Gillespie's stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) for chemical reactions admits three kinds of elementary processes, namely, mass action reactions of 0^th, 1^st or 2^nd order. All other types of reaction processes, for instance those containing non-integer kinetic orders or following other types of kinetic laws, are assumed to be convertible to one of the three elementary kinds, so that SSA can validly be applied. However, the conversion to elementary reactions is often difficult, if not impossible. Within deterministic contexts, a strategy of model reduction is often used. Such a reduction simplifies the actual system of reactions by merging or approximating intermediate steps and omitting reactants such as transient complexes. It would be valuable to adopt a similar reduction strategy to stochastic modelling. Indeed, efforts have been devoted to manipulating the chemical master equation (CME) in order to achieve a proper propensity function for a reduced stochastic system. However, manipulations of CME are almost always complicated, and successes have been limited to relative simple cases.

Results

We propose a rather general strategy for converting a deterministic process model into a corresponding stochastic model and characterize the mathematical connections between the two. The deterministic framework is assumed to be a generalized mass action system and the stochastic analogue is in the format of the chemical master equation. The analysis identifies situations: where a direct conversion is valid; where internal noise affecting the system needs to be taken into account; and where the propensity function must be mathematically adjusted. The conversion from deterministic to stochastic models is illustrated with several representative examples, including reversible reactions with feedback controls, Michaelis-Menten enzyme kinetics, a genetic regulatory motif, and stochastic focusing.

Conclusions

The construction of a stochastic model for a biochemical network requires the utilization of information associated with an equation-based model. The conversion strategy proposed here guides a model design process that ensures a valid transition between deterministic and stochastic models.