Reduction in the incidence of infectious diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic: A hypothesis

Non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 reduced the incidence of infectious diseases: a controlled interrupted time-series study

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented worldwide to suppress the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, few studies have evaluated the effect of NPIs on other infectious diseases and none has assessed the avoided disease burden associated with NPIs. We aimed to assess the effect of NPIs on the incidence of infectious diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and evaluate the health economic benefits related to the reduction in the incidence of infectious diseases.

METHODS

Data on 10 notifiable infectious diseases across China during 2010-2020 were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. A two-stage controlled interrupted time-series design with a quasi-Poisson regression model was used to examine the impact of NPIs on the incidence of infectious diseases. The analysis was first performed at the provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) level in China, then the PLAD-specific estimates were pooled using a random-effect meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 61,393,737 cases of 10 infectious diseases were identified. The implementation of NPIs was associated with 5.13 million (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.45‒7.42) avoided cases and USD 1.77 billion (95% CI 1.18‒2.57) avoided hospital expenditures in 2020. There were 4.52 million (95% CI 3.00‒6.63) avoided cases for children and adolescents, corresponding to 88.2% of total avoided cases. The top leading cause of avoided burden attributable to NPIs was influenza [avoided percentage (AP): 89.3%; 95% CI 84.5‒92.6]. Socioeconomic status and population density were effect modifiers.

CONCLUSIONS

NPIs for COVID-19 could effectively control the prevalence of infectious diseases, with patterns of risk varying by socioeconomic status. These findings have important implications for informing targeted strategies to prevent infectious diseases.

The estimated burden of 15 vaccine-preventable diseases from 2008 to 2020 in Japan: A transition by the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Evaluating the national burdens across multiple vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) can be informative to identify the areas for improvements in the national immunization program.

METHODS

The annual burden of diseases from 2008 to 2020 in Japan were calculated with the incidence- and pathogen-based approach for the 15 VPDs (hepatitis B virus infection, human papillomavirus (HPV), influenza, invasive pneumococcal disease, invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) disease, invasive meningococcal disease, Japanese encephalitis, measles, mumps, pertussis, rotavirus, rubella, tetanus, tuberculosis and varicella), using disability-adjusted life year (DALY).

RESULTS

The average annual burden between 2008 and 2020 is the highest in influenza (114,129 DALY/year), followed by HPV infection, hepatitis B virus infection, tuberculosis and mumps (109,782, 69,883, 23,855 and 5693 DALY/year). In the pre-COVID-19 period (2008-2019), the decreasing trend of burden was observed in hepatitis B virus infection, invasive pneumococcal disease, invasive Hib disease, tuberculosis and varicella. HPV infection is the only VPD which had more than 100,000 DALY/year for all years during the study period. In 2020, the estimated annual burdens are decreased in influenza (71%), invasive pneumococcal disease (51%), invasive Hib diseases (54%), invasive meningococcal disease (64%), measles (98%), mumps (47%) pertussis (83%), rotavirus infection (95%), rubella (94%) and varicella (35%) compared with those in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

The study demonstrated decreasing trends of burdens for some VPDs, while a persistently high burden has been observed for other VPDs, including HPV infection. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused dramatic reductions in the burdens of many VPDs in 2020.