A novel hybrid method based on Cuckoo optimization algorithm and artificial neural network to forecast world's carbon dioxide emission

Towards greener futures: SVR-based CO2 prediction model boosted by SCMSSA algorithm

This research presents the utilization of an enhanced Sine cosine perturbation with Chaotic perturbation and Mirror imaging strategy-based Salp Swarm Algorithm (SCMSSA), which incorporates three improvement mechanisms, to enhance the convergence accuracy and speed of the optimization algorithm. The study assesses the SCMSSA algorithm's performance against other optimization algorithms using six test functions to show the efficacy of the enhancement strategies. Furthermore, its efficacy in improving Support Vector Regression (SVR) models for CO2 prediction is assessed. The results reveal that the SVR-SCMSSA hybrid model surpasses other hybrid models and standard SVR in terms of training and prediction accuracy by obtaining 95 % accuracy. Its swift convergence, precision, and resistance to local optima position make it an excellent choice for addressing complex problems such as CO2 prediction, with critical implications for sustainability efforts. Moreover, feature importance analysis by SVR-SCMSSA offers valuable insights into the key contributors to CO2 prediction in the dataset, emphasizing the significance and impact of factors such as fossil fuel, Biomass, and Wood as major contributors to CO2 emission. The research suggests the adoption of the SVR-SCMSSA hybrid model for more accurate and reliable CO2 prediction to researchers and policymakers, which is essential for environmental sustainability and climate change mitigation.

Forecasting carbon emissions from energy consumption in Guangdong Province, China with a novel grey multivariate model

Carbon dioxide has a significant impact on global climate change due to its natural greenhouse effect. The objective and credible forecast of carbon emissions is very important for the government to formulate and implement the corresponding emission reduction targets. For controlling the growth of carbon emissions, Chinese government has put forward the low-carbon pilot policy and carbon trading policy. However, the existing grey models cannot measure the impact of policies and their interactions. In order to remedy the defect, a novel grey multivariable model based on dummy variables and their interactions is established. Two kinds of grey multivariable models and back propagation neural network model are chosen as comparison models to highlight that the introduction of dummy variables and their interactions plays an important part in improving the model performance. To verify the effectiveness, these four models are selected to simulate and predict the carbon emissions generated from primary energy consumption in Guangdong Province of China. The empirical results indicate that the mean absolute percentage errors of the novel model are 2.87% and 0.86%, respectively, which is significantly better than these three competing models. Finally, based on the outstanding performance of the novel model, it is chosen to forecast the fluctuating tendency of carbon emissions in the next 5 years.

A Novel Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Approach to the Future of Global Coal Consumption Using Whale Optimization Algorithm and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Energy has become an integral part of our society and global economic development in the twenty-first century. Despite tremendous technological advancements, fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil) continue to be the world’s primary source of energy. Global energy scenarios indicate a change in coal consumption trends in the future, which in turn will have commercial, geopolitical, and environmental consequences. We investigated coal consumption up to 2030 using a new hybrid method of WOANFIS (whale optimization algorithm and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system). The WOANFIS method’s performance was assessed by the MSE (Mean Squared Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), STD (error standard deviation), RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), and coefficient of correlation (R2) among the real dataset and the WOANFIS result. For the prediction of global coal consumption, the proposed WOANFIS had the best MAE, RMSE, and correlation coefficient (R2) values, which were 0.00113, 0.0047, and 0.98, respectively. Lastly, future global coal consumption was predicted up to 2030 by WOANFIS. Following 150 years of coal dominance, the results demonstrate that WOANFIS is a suitable method for estimating worldwide coal consumption, which makes it possible to plan for the transition away from coal.

The Prediction of Carbon Emission Information in Yangtze River Economic Zone by Deep Learning

This study aimed to respond to the national “carbon peak” mid-and long-term policy plan, comprehensively promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and accurately manage and predict carbon emissions. Firstly, the proposed method analyzes the Yangtze River Economic Belt as well as its “carbon peak” and carbon emissions. Secondly, a support vector regression (SVR) machine prediction model is proposed for the carbon emission information prediction of the Yangtze River Economic Zone. This experiment uses a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) to train the model and realize the experiment’s prediction of carbon emissions. Finally, this study obtained the fitting results of the prediction model and the training model, as well as the prediction results of the prediction model. Information indicators such as the scale of industry investment, labor efficiency output, and carbon emission intensity that affect carbon emissions in the “Yangtze River Economic Belt” basin can be used to accurately predict the carbon emissions information under this model. Therefore, the experiment shows that the SVR model for solving complex nonlinear problems can achieve a relatively excellent prediction effect under the training of LSTM. The deep learning model adopted herein realized the accurate prediction of carbon emission information in the Yangtze River Economic Zone and expanded the application space of deep learning. It provides a reference for the model in related fields of carbon emission information prediction, which has certain reference significance.

A Novel Computational Intelligence Approach for Coal Consumption Forecasting in Iran

Coal as a fossil and non-renewable fuel is one of the most valuable energy minerals in the world with the largest volume reserves. Artificial neural networks (ANN), despite being one of the highest breakthroughs in the field of computational intelligence, has some significant disadvantages, such as slow training, susceptibility to falling into a local optimal points, sensitivity of initial weights, and bias. To overcome these shortcomings, this study presents an improved ANN structure, that is optimized by a proposed hybrid method. The aim of this study is to propose a novel hybrid method for predicting coal consumption in Iran based on socio-economic variables using the bat and grey wolf optimization algorithm with an artificial neural network (BGWAN). For this purpose, data from 1981 to 2019 have been used for modelling and testing the method. The available data are partly used to find the optimal or near-optimal values of the weighting parameters (1980–2014) and partly to test the model (2015–2019). The performance of the BGWAN is evaluated by mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), standard deviation error (STD), and correlation coefficient (R^2) between the output of the method and the actual dataset. The result of this study showed that BGWAN performance was excellent and proved its efficiency as a useful and reliable tool for monitoring coal consumption or energy demand in Iran.