Independent Validation of the International Grading System for Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma: A Single Institution Experience

Novel prognostic nomogram for predicting recurrence-free survival in medullary thyroid carcinoma

AIMS

Recently, there have been attempts to improve prognostication and therefore better guide treatment for patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). In 2022, the International MTC Grading System (IMTCGS) was developed and validated using a multi-institutional cohort of 327 patients. The aim of the current study was to build upon the findings of the IMTCGS to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) in MTC.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data from 300 patients with MTC from five centres across the USA, Europe, and Australia were used to develop a prognostic nomogram that included the following variables: age, sex, AJCC stage, tumour size, mitotic count, necrosis, Ki67 index, lymphovascular invasion, microscopic extrathyroidal extension, and margin status. A process of 10-fold cross-validation was used to optimize the model's performance. To assess discrimination and calibration, the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, concordance-index (C-index), and dissimilarity index (D-index) were calculated. Finally, the model was externally validated using a separate cohort of 87 MTC patients. The model demonstrated very strong performance, with an AUC of 0.94, a C-index of 0.876, and a D-index of 19.06. When applied to the external validation cohort, the model had an AUC of 0.9.

CONCLUSIONS

Using well-established clinicopathological prognostic variables, we developed and externally validated a robust multivariate prediction model for RFS in patients with resected MTC. The model demonstrates excellent predictive capability and may help guide decisions on patient management. The nomogram is freely available online at https://nomograms.shinyapps.io/MTC_ML_DFS/.

Cytologic risk stratification of medullary thyroid carcinoma: Does it make the grade?

Recent efforts to develop a histologic grading system for medullary thyroid carcinoma is gaining broad acceptance. How well do these grading parameters translate to cytology specimens?

Association of the Genomic Profile of Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma with Tumor Characteristics and Clinical Outcomes in an International Multicenter Study

Purpose: The prognostic importance of RET and RAS mutations and their relationship to clinicopathologic parameters and outcomes in medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) need to be clarified. Experimental Design: A multicenter retrospective cohort study was performed utilizing data from 290 patients with MTC. The molecular profile was determined and associations were examined with clinicopathologic data and outcomes. Results: RET germ line mutations were detected in 40 patients (16.3%). Somatic RET and RAS mutations occurred in 135 (46.9%) and 57 (19.8%) patients, respectively. RETM918T was the most common somatic RET mutation (n = 75). RET somatic mutations were associated with male sex, larger tumor size, advanced American Joint Committee Cancer (AJCC) stage, vascular invasion, and high International Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma Grading System (IMTCGS) grade. When compared with other RET somatic mutations, RETM918T was associated with younger age, AJCC (eighth edition) IV, vascular invasion, extrathyroidal extension, and positive margins. RET somatic or germ line mutations were significantly associated with reduced distant metastasis-free survival on univariate analysis, but there were no significant independent associations on multivariable analysis, after adjusting for tumor grade and stage. There were no significant differences in outcomes between RET somatic and RET germ line mutations, or between RETM918T and other RET mutations. Other recurrent molecular alterations included TP53 (4.2%), ARID2 (2.9%), SETD2 (2.9%), KMT2A (2.9%), and KMT2C (2.9%). Among them, TP53 mutations were associated with decreased overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS), independently of tumor grade and AJCC stage. Conclusions: RET somatic mutations were associated with high-grade, aggressive primary tumor characteristics, and decreased distant metastatic-free survival but this relationship was not significant after accounting for tumor grade and disease stage. RETM918T was associated with aggressive primary tumors but was not independently associated with clinical outcomes. TP53 mutation may represent an adverse molecular event associated with decreased OS and DSS in MTC, but its prognostic value needs to be confirmed in future studies.