Polygenic risk scores for Alzheimer's disease in relation to cognitive change: A representative sample from the general population followed over 16 years

Can integration of Alzheimer's plasma biomarkers with MRI, cardiovascular, genetics, and lifestyle measures improve cognition prediction?

There is increasing interest in Alzheimer's disease related plasma biomarkers due to their accessibility and scalability. We hypothesized that integrating plasma biomarkers with other commonly used and available participant data (MRI, cardiovascular factors, lifestyle, genetics) using machine learning (ML) models can improve individual prediction of cognitive outcomes. Further, our goal was to evaluate the heterogeneity of these predictors across different age strata. This longitudinal study included 1185 participants from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging who had complete plasma analyte work-up at baseline. We used the Quanterix Simoa immunoassay to measure neurofilament light, Aβ1-42 and Aβ1-40 (used as Aβ42/Aβ40 ratio), glial fibrillary acidic protein, and phosphorylated tau 181 (p-tau181). Participants' brain health was evaluated through gray and white matter structural MRIs. The study also considered cardiovascular factors (hyperlipidemia, hypertension, stroke, diabetes, chronic kidney disease), lifestyle factors (area deprivation index, body mass index, cognitive and physical activities), and genetic factors (APOE, single nucleotide polymorphisms, and polygenic risk scores). An ML model was developed to predict cognitive outcomes at baseline and decline (slope). Three models were created: a base model with groups of risk factors as predictors, an enhanced model included socio-demographics, and a final enhanced model by incorporating plasma and socio-demographics into the base models. Models were explained for three age strata: younger than 65 years, 65-80 years, and older than 80 years, and further divided based on amyloid positivity status. Regardless of amyloid status the plasma biomarkers showed comparable performance (R² = 0.15) to MRI (R² = 0.18) and cardiovascular measures (R² = 0.10) when predicting cognitive decline. Inclusion of cardiovascular or MRI measures with plasma in the presence of socio-demographic improved cognitive decline prediction (R² = 0.26 and 0.27). For amyloid positive individuals Aβ42/Aβ40, glial fibrillary acidic protein and p-tau181 were the top predictors of cognitive decline while Aβ42/Aβ40 was prominent for amyloid negative participants across all age groups. Socio-demographics explained a large portion of the variance in the amyloid negative individuals while the plasma biomarkers predominantly explained the variance in amyloid positive individuals (21% to 37% from the younger to the older age group). Plasma biomarkers performed similarly to MRI and cardiovascular measures when predicting cognitive outcomes and combining them with either measure resulted in better performance. Top predictors were heterogeneous between cross-sectional and longitudinal cognition models, across age groups, and amyloid status. Multimodal approaches will enhance the usefulness of plasma biomarkers through careful considerations of a study population's socio-demographics, brain and cardiovascular health.

Enhanced polygenic risk score incorporating gene-environment interaction suggests the association of major depressive disorder with cardiac and lung function

BACKGROUND

Depression has been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases; however, its impact on cardiac and lung function remains unclear, especially when accounting for potential gene-environment interactions.

METHODS

We developed a novel polygenic and gene-environment interaction risk score (PGIRS) integrating the major genetic effect and gene-environment interaction effect of depression-associated loci. The single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) demonstrating major genetic effect or environmental interaction effect were obtained from genome-wide SNP association and SNP-environment interaction analyses of depression. We then calculated the depression PGIRS for non-depressed individuals, using smoking and alcohol consumption as environmental factors. Using linear regression analysis, we assessed the associations of PGIRS and conventional polygenic risk score (PRS) with lung function (N = 42 886) and cardiac function (N = 1791) in the subjects with or without exposing to smoking and alcohol drinking.

RESULTS

We detected significant associations of depression PGIRS with cardiac and lung function, contrary to conventional depression PRS. Among smokers, forced vital capacity exhibited a negative association with PGIRS (β = -0.037, FDR = 1.00 × 10-8), contrasting with no significant association with PRS (β = -0.002, FDR = 0.943). In drinkers, we observed a positive association between cardiac index with PGIRS (β = 0.088, FDR = 0.010), whereas no such association was found with PRS (β = 0.040, FDR = 0.265). Notably, in individuals who both smoked and drank, forced expiratory volume in 1-second demonstrated a negative association with PGIRS (β = -0.042, FDR = 6.30 × 10-9), but not with PRS (β = -0.003, FDR = 0.857).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings underscore the profound impact of depression on cardiac and lung function, highlighting the enhanced efficacy of considering gene-environment interactions in PRS-based studies.