Predicting individual traits from unperformed tasks

The Prediction of Brain Activity from Connectivity: Advances and Applications

The human brain is composed of multiple, discrete, functionally specialized regions that are interconnected to form large-scale distributed networks. Using advanced brain-imaging methods and machine-learning analytical approaches, recent studies have demonstrated that regional brain activity during the performance of various cognitive tasks can be accurately predicted from patterns of task-independent brain connectivity. In this review article, we first present evidence for the predictability of brain activity from structural connectivity (i.e., white matter connections) and functional connectivity (i.e., temporally synchronized task-free activations). We then discuss the implications of such predictions to clinical populations, such as patients diagnosed with psychiatric disorders or neurologic diseases, and to the study of brain-behavior associations. We conclude that connectivity may serve as an infrastructure that dictates brain activity, and we pinpoint several open questions and directions for future research.

Oxytocin enhances the triangular association among behavior, resting-state, and task-state functional connectivity

Considerable advances in the role of oxytocin (OT) effect on behavior and the brain network have been made, but the effect of OT on the association between inter-individual differences in functional connectivity (FC) and behavior is elusive. Here, by using a face-perception task and multiple connectome-based predictive models, we aimed to (1) determine whether OT could enhance the association among behavioral performance, resting-state FC (rsFC), and task-state FC (tsFC) and (2) if so, explore the role of OT in enhancing this triangular association. We found that in the OT group, the prediction performance of using rsFC or tsFC to predict task behavior was higher than that of the PL group. Additionally, the correlation coefficient between rsFC and tsFC was substantially higher in the OT group than in the PL group. The strength of these associations could be partly explained by OT altering the brain's FCs related to social cognition and face perception in both the resting and task states, mainly in brain regions such as the limbic system, prefrontal cortex, temporal poles, and temporoparietal junction. Taken together, these results provide novel evidence and a corresponding mechanism for how neuropeptides cause increased associations among inter-individual differences across different levels (e.g., behavior and large-scale brain networks in both resting and task-state), and may inspire future research on the role of neuropeptides in the cross levels association of both clinical and nonclinical use.

Generalizing prediction of task-evoked brain activity across datasets and populations

Predictions of task-based functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) from task-free resting-state (rs) fMRI have gained popularity over the past decade. This method holds a great promise for studying individual variability in brain function without the need to perform highly demanding tasks. However, in order to be broadly used, prediction models must prove to generalize beyond the dataset they were trained on. In this work, we test the generalizability of prediction of task-fMRI from rs-fMRI across sites, MRI vendors and age-groups. Moreover, we investigate the data requirements for successful prediction. We use the Human Connectome Project (HCP) dataset to explore how different combinations of training sample sizes and number of fMRI datapoints affect prediction success in various cognitive tasks. We then apply models trained on HCP data to predict brain activations in data from a different site, a different MRI vendor (Phillips vs. Siemens scanners) and a different age group (children from the HCP-development project). We demonstrate that, depending on the task, a training set of approximately 20 participants with 100 fMRI timepoints each yields the largest gain in model performance. Nevertheless, further increasing sample size and number of timepoints results in significantly improved predictions, until reaching approximately 450-600 training participants and 800-1000 timepoints. Overall, the number of fMRI timepoints influences prediction success more than the sample size. We further show that models trained on adequate amounts of data successfully generalize across sites, vendors and age groups and provide predictions that are both accurate and individual-specific. These findings suggest that large-scale publicly available datasets may be utilized to study brain function in smaller, unique samples.

The challenges and prospects of brain-based prediction of behaviour

Relating individual brain patterns to behaviour is fundamental in system neuroscience. Recently, the predictive modelling approach has become increasingly popular, largely due to the recent availability of large open datasets and access to computational resources. This means that we can use machine learning models and interindividual differences at the brain level represented by neuroimaging features to predict interindividual differences in behavioural measures. By doing so, we could identify biomarkers and neural correlates in a data-driven fashion. Nevertheless, this budding field of neuroimaging-based predictive modelling is facing issues that may limit its potential applications. Here we review these existing challenges, as well as those that we anticipate as the field develops. We focus on the impacts of these challenges on brain-based predictions. We suggest potential solutions to address the resolvable challenges, while keeping in mind that some general and conceptual limitations may also underlie the predictive modelling approach.

One Size Does Not Fit All: Methodological Considerations for Brain-Based Predictive Modeling in Psychiatry

Psychiatric illnesses are heterogeneous in nature. No illness manifests in the same way across individuals, and no two patients with a shared diagnosis exhibit identical symptom profiles. Over the last several decades, group-level analyses of in vivo neuroimaging data have led to fundamental advances in our understanding of the neurobiology of psychiatric illnesses. More recently, access to computational resources and large, publicly available datasets alongside the rise of predictive modeling and precision medicine approaches have facilitated the study of psychiatric illnesses at an individual level. Data-driven machine learning analyses can be applied to identify disease-relevant biological subtypes, predict individual symptom profiles, and recommend personalized therapeutic interventions. However, when developing these predictive models, methodological choices must be carefully considered to ensure accurate, robust, and interpretable results. Choices pertaining to algorithms, neuroimaging modalities and states, data transformation, phenotypes, parcellations, sample sizes, and populations we are specifically studying can influence model performance. Here, we review applications of neuroimaging-based machine learning models to study psychiatric illnesses and discuss the effects of different methodological choices on model performance. An understanding of these effects is crucial for the proper implementation of predictive models in psychiatry and will facilitate more accurate diagnoses, prognoses, and therapeutics.