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Xie XY, Huang LY, Liu D, Cheng GR, Hu FF, Zhou J, Zhang JJ, Han GB, Geng JW, Liu XC, Wang JY, Zeng DY, Liu J, Nie QQ, Song D, Li SY, Cai C, Cui YY, Xu L, Ou YM, Chen XX, Zhou YL, Chen YS, Li JQ, Wei Z, Wu Q, Mei YF, Song SJ, Tan W, Zhao QH, Ding D, Zeng Y. Predicting Progression to Dementia Using Auditory Verbal Learning Test in Community-Dwelling Older Adults Based On Machine Learning. Am J Geriatr Psychiatry 2025; 33:487-499. [PMID: 39645504 DOI: 10.1016/j.jagp.2024.10.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2024] [Revised: 10/22/2024] [Accepted: 10/30/2024] [Indexed: 12/09/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Primary healthcare institutions find identifying individuals with dementia particularly challenging. This study aimed to develop machine learning models for identifying predictive features of older adults with normal cognition to develop dementia. METHODS We developed four machine learning models: logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and gradient-boosted trees, predicting dementia of 1,162 older adults with normal cognition at baseline from the Hubei Memory and Aging Cohort Study. All relevant variables collected were included in the models. The Shanghai Aging Study was selected as a replication cohort (n = 1,370) to validate the performance of models including the key features after a wrapper feature selection technique. Both cohorts adopted comparable diagnostic criteria for dementia to most previous cohort studies. RESULTS The random forest model exhibited slightly better predictive power using a series of auditory verbal learning test, education, and follow-up time, as measured by overall accuracy (93%) and an area under the curve (AUC) (mean [standard error]: 088 [0.07]). When assessed in the external validation cohort, its performance was deemed acceptable with an AUC of 0.81 (0.15). Conversely, the logistic regression model showed better results in the external validation set, attaining an AUC of 0.88 (0.20). CONCLUSION Our machine learning framework offers a viable strategy for predicting dementia using only memory tests in primary healthcare settings. This model can track cognitive changes and provide valuable insights for early intervention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xin-Yan Xie
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan; Geriatric Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology (XYX, DL, GRC, FFH, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, JQL, QW, YFM, WT, YZ), Wuhan; School of Public Health (XYX, DL, LX, YMO, YSC, JQL, ZW, YZ), Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Lin-Ya Huang
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Dan Liu
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan; Geriatric Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology (XYX, DL, GRC, FFH, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, JQL, QW, YFM, WT, YZ), Wuhan; School of Public Health (XYX, DL, LX, YMO, YSC, JQL, ZW, YZ), Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Gui-Rong Cheng
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan; Geriatric Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology (XYX, DL, GRC, FFH, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, JQL, QW, YFM, WT, YZ), Wuhan; School of Public Health (XYX, DL, LX, YMO, YSC, JQL, ZW, YZ), Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Fei-Fei Hu
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan; Geriatric Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology (XYX, DL, GRC, FFH, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, JQL, QW, YFM, WT, YZ), Wuhan; School of Public Health (XYX, DL, LX, YMO, YSC, JQL, ZW, YZ), Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Juan Zhou
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Jing-Jing Zhang
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Gang-Bin Han
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Jing-Wen Geng
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Xiao-Chang Liu
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Jun-Yi Wang
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - De-Yang Zeng
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Jing Liu
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Qian-Qian Nie
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Dan Song
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Shi-Yue Li
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Cheng Cai
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Yu-Yang Cui
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Lang Xu
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan; Geriatric Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology (XYX, DL, GRC, FFH, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, JQL, QW, YFM, WT, YZ), Wuhan; School of Public Health (XYX, DL, LX, YMO, YSC, JQL, ZW, YZ), Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Yang-Ming Ou
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan; Geriatric Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology (XYX, DL, GRC, FFH, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, JQL, QW, YFM, WT, YZ), Wuhan; School of Public Health (XYX, DL, LX, YMO, YSC, JQL, ZW, YZ), Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Xing-Xing Chen
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan; Geriatric Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology (XYX, DL, GRC, FFH, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, JQL, QW, YFM, WT, YZ), Wuhan; School of Public Health (XYX, DL, LX, YMO, YSC, JQL, ZW, YZ), Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Yan-Ling Zhou
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan; Geriatric Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology (XYX, DL, GRC, FFH, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, JQL, QW, YFM, WT, YZ), Wuhan
| | - Yu-Shan Chen
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Jin-Quan Li
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan; Geriatric Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology (XYX, DL, GRC, FFH, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, JQL, QW, YFM, WT, YZ), Wuhan; School of Public Health (XYX, DL, LX, YMO, YSC, JQL, ZW, YZ), Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Zhen Wei
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Qiong Wu
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan; School of Public Health (XYX, DL, LX, YMO, YSC, JQL, ZW, YZ), Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Yu-Fei Mei
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan; Geriatric Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology (XYX, DL, GRC, FFH, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, JQL, QW, YFM, WT, YZ), Wuhan; School of Public Health (XYX, DL, LX, YMO, YSC, JQL, ZW, YZ), Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Shao-Jun Song
- Reproductive Medicine Center (SJS), Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Wei Tan
- Geriatric Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology (XYX, DL, GRC, FFH, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, JQL, QW, YFM, WT, YZ), Wuhan; School of Public Health (XYX, DL, LX, YMO, YSC, JQL, ZW, YZ), Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
| | - Qian-Hua Zhao
- Department of Neurology (QHZ, DD), Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai; National Center for Neurological Disorders (QHZ, DD), Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai; National Clinical Research Center for Aging and Medicine (QHZ, DD), Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai
| | - Ding Ding
- Department of Neurology (QHZ, DD), Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai; National Center for Neurological Disorders (QHZ, DD), Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai; National Clinical Research Center for Aging and Medicine (QHZ, DD), Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai.
| | - Yan Zeng
- Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Alzheimer's Disease (XYX, LYH, DL, GRC, FFH, JZ, JJZ, GBH, JWG, XCL, JYW, DYZ, JL, QQN, DS, SYL, CC, YYC, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, YSC, JQL, ZW, QW, YFM, YZ), Tian You Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan; Geriatric Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology (XYX, DL, GRC, FFH, LX, YMO, XXC, YLZ, JQL, QW, YFM, WT, YZ), Wuhan; School of Public Health (XYX, DL, LX, YMO, YSC, JQL, ZW, YZ), Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan.
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