A primer on Variational Laplace (VL)

BSD: A Bayesian Framework for Parametric Models of Neural Spectra

The analysis of neural power spectra plays a crucial role in understanding brain function and dysfunction. While recent efforts have led to the development of methods for decomposing spectral data, challenges remain in performing statistical analysis and group-level comparisons. Here, we introduce Bayesian spectral decomposition (BSD), a Bayesian framework for analysing neural spectral power. BSD allows for the specification, inversion, comparison and analysis of parametric models of neural spectra, addressing limitations of existing methods. We first establish the face validity of BSD on simulated data and show how it outperforms an established method [fit oscillations and one-over-f (FOOOF)] for peak detection on artificial spectral data. We then demonstrate the efficacy of BSD on a group-level study of electroencephalography (EEG) spectra in 204 healthy subjects from the LEMON dataset. Our results not only highlight the effectiveness of BSD in model selection and parameter estimation but also illustrate how BSD enables straightforward group-level regression of the effect of continuous covariates such as age. By using Bayesian inference techniques, BSD provides a robust framework for studying neural spectral data and their relationship to brain function and dysfunction.

Structurally informed resting-state effective connectivity recapitulates cortical hierarchy

Neuronal communication relies on the anatomy of the brain, yet it remains unclear whether, at the macroscale, structural (or anatomical) connectivity provides useful constraints on effective connectivity. Here, we assess a hierarchical empirical Bayes model that builds on a well-established dynamic causal model by integrating structural connectivity into resting-state effective connectivity via priors. In silico analyses show that the model successfully recovers ground-truth effective connectivity and compares favorably with a prominent alternative. Analyses of empirical data reveal that a positive, monotonic relationship between structural connectivity and the prior probability of group-level effective connectivity generalizes across sessions and samples. Finally, attesting to the model's biological plausibility, we show that inter-network differences in the coupling between structural and effective connectivity recapitulate a well-known unimodal-transmodal hierarchy. These findings underscore the value of integrating structural and effective connectivity to enhance the understanding of functional integration in health and disease.

Structurally informed models of directed brain connectivity

Understanding how one brain region exerts influence over another in vivo is profoundly constrained by models used to infer or predict directed connectivity. Although such neural interactions rely on the anatomy of the brain, it remains unclear whether, at the macroscale, structural (or anatomical) connectivity provides useful constraints on models of directed connectivity. Here, we review the current state of research on this question, highlighting a key distinction between inference-based effective connectivity and prediction-based directed functional connectivity. We explore the methods via which structural connectivity has been integrated into directed connectivity models: through prior distributions, fixed parameters in state-space models and inputs to structure learning algorithms. Although the evidence suggests that integrating structural connectivity substantially improves directed connectivity models, assessments of reliability and out-of-sample validity are lacking. We conclude this Review with a strategy for future research that addresses current challenges and identifies opportunities for advancing the integration of structural and directed connectivity to ultimately improve understanding of the brain in health and disease.

Lattice physics approaches for neural networks

Modern neuroscience has evolved into a frontier field that draws on numerous disciplines, resulting in the flourishing of novel conceptual frames primarily inspired by physics and complex systems science. Contributing in this direction, we recently introduced a mathematical framework to describe the spatiotemporal interactions of systems of neurons using lattice field theory, the reference paradigm for theoretical particle physics. In this note, we provide a concise summary of the basics of the theory, aiming to be intuitive to the interdisciplinary neuroscience community. We contextualize our methods, illustrating how to readily connect the parameters of our formulation to experimental variables using well-known renormalization procedures. This synopsis yields the key concepts needed to describe neural networks using lattice physics. Such classes of methods are attention-worthy in an era of blistering improvements in numerical computations, as they can facilitate relating the observation of neural activity to generative models underpinned by physical principles.

Stimulus-repetition effects on macaque V1 and V4 microcircuits explain gamma-synchronization increase

Under natural conditions, animals repeatedly encounter the same visual scenes, objects or patterns repeatedly. These repetitions constitute statistical regularities, which the brain captures in an internal model through learning. A signature of such learning in primate visual areas V1 and V4 is the gradual strengthening of gamma synchronization. We used a V1-V4 Dynamic Causal Model (DCM) to explain visually induced responses in early and late epochs from a sequence of several hundred grating presentations. The DCM reproduced the empirical increase in local and inter-areal gamma synchronization, revealing specific intrinsic connectivity effects that could explain the phenomenon. In a sensitivity analysis, the isolated modulation of several connection strengths induced increased gamma. Comparison of alternative models showed that empirical gamma increases are better explained by (1) repetition effects in both V1 and V4 intrinsic connectivity (alone or together with extrinsic) than in extrinsic connectivity alone, and (2) repetition effects on V1 and V4 population input rather than output gain. The best input gain model included effects in V1 granular and superficial excitatory populations and in V4 granular and deep excitatory populations. Our findings are consistent with gamma reflecting bottom-up signal precision, which increases with repetition and, therefore, with predictability and learning.

Spectral dynamic causal modeling: A didactic introduction and its relationship with functional connectivity

We present a didactic introduction to spectral dynamic causal modeling (DCM), a Bayesian state-space modeling approach used to infer effective connectivity from noninvasive neuroimaging data. Spectral DCM is currently the most widely applied DCM variant for resting-state functional MRI analysis. Our aim is to explain its technical foundations to an audience with limited expertise in state-space modeling and spectral data analysis. Particular attention will be paid to cross-spectral density, which is the most distinctive feature of spectral DCM and is closely related to functional connectivity, as measured by (zero-lag) Pearson correlations. In fact, the model parameters estimated by spectral DCM are those that best reproduce the cross-correlations between all measurements-at all time lags-including the zero-lag correlations that are usually interpreted as functional connectivity. We derive the functional connectivity matrix from the model equations and show how changing a single effective connectivity parameter can affect all pairwise correlations. To complicate matters, the pairs of brain regions showing the largest changes in functional connectivity do not necessarily coincide with those presenting the largest changes in effective connectivity. We discuss the implications and conclude with a comprehensive summary of the assumptions and limitations of spectral DCM.

Effective connectivity of working memory performance: a DCM study of MEG data

Visual working memory (WM) engages several nodes of a large-scale network that includes frontal, parietal, and visual regions; however, little is understood about how these regions interact to support WM behavior. In particular, it is unclear whether network dynamics during WM maintenance primarily represent feedforward or feedback connections. This question has important implications for current debates about the relative roles of frontoparietal and visual regions in WM maintenance. In the current study, we investigated the network activity supporting WM using MEG data acquired while healthy subjects performed a multi-item delayed estimation WM task. We used computational modeling of behavior to discriminate correct responses (high accuracy trials) from two different types of incorrect responses (low accuracy and swap trials), and dynamic causal modeling of MEG data to measure effective connectivity. We observed behaviorally dependent changes in effective connectivity in a brain network comprising frontoparietal and early visual areas. In comparison with high accuracy trials, frontoparietal and frontooccipital networks showed disrupted signals depending on type of behavioral error. Low accuracy trials showed disrupted feedback signals during early portions of WM maintenance and disrupted feedforward signals during later portions of maintenance delay, while swap errors showed disrupted feedback signals during the whole delay period. These results support a distributed model of WM that emphasizes the role of visual regions in WM storage and where changes in large scale network configurations can have important consequences for memory-guided behavior.

Accelerating scientific progress through Bayesian adversarial collaboration

Adversarial collaboration has been championed as the gold standard for resolving scientific disputes but has gained relatively limited traction in neuroscience and allied fields. In this perspective, we argue that adversarial collaborative research has been stymied by an overly restrictive concern with the falsification of scientific theories. We advocate instead for a more expansive view that frames adversarial collaboration in terms of Bayesian belief updating, model comparison, and evidence accumulation. This framework broadens the scope of adversarial collaboration to accommodate a wide range of informative (but not necessarily definitive) studies while affording the requisite formal tools to guide experimental design and data analysis in the adversarial setting. We provide worked examples that demonstrate how these tools can be deployed to score theoretical models in terms of a common metric of evidence, thereby furnishing a means of tracking the amount of empirical support garnered by competing theories over time.

A new causal centrality measure reveals the prominent role of subcortical structures in the causal architecture of the extended default mode network

Network representation has been an incredibly useful concept for understanding the behavior of complex systems in social sciences, biology, neuroscience, and beyond. Network science is mathematically founded on graph theory, where nodal importance is gauged using measures of centrality. Notably, recent work suggests that the topological centrality of a node should not be over-interpreted as its dynamical or causal importance in the network. Hence, identifying the influential nodes in dynamic causal models (DCM) remains an open question. This paper introduces causal centrality for DCM, a dynamics-sensitive and causally-founded centrality measure based on the notion of intervention in graphical models. Operationally, this measure simplifies to an identifiable expression using Bayesian model reduction. As a proof of concept, the average DCM of the extended default mode network (eDMN) was computed in 74 healthy subjects. Next, causal centralities of different regions were computed for this causal graph, and compared against several graph-theoretical centralities. The results showed that the subcortical structures of the eDMN were more causally central than the cortical regions, even though the graph-theoretical centralities unanimously favored the latter. Importantly, model comparison revealed that only the pattern of causal centrality was causally relevant. These results are consistent with the crucial role of the subcortical structures in the neuromodulatory systems of the brain, and highlight their contribution to the organization of large-scale networks. Potential applications of causal centrality-to study causal models of other neurotypical and pathological functional networks-are discussed, and some future lines of research are outlined.

Inferring Trajectories of Psychotic Disorders Using Dynamic Causal Modeling

Introduction

Illness course plays a crucial role in delineating psychiatric disorders. However, existing nosologies consider only its most basic features (e.g., symptom sequence, duration). We developed a Dynamic Causal Model (DCM) that characterizes course patterns more fully using dense timeseries data. This foundational study introduces the new modeling approach and evaluates its validity using empirical and simulated data.

Methods

A three-level DCM was constructed to model how latent dynamics produce symptoms of depression, mania, and psychosis. This model was fit to symptom scores of nine patients collected prospectively over four years, following first hospitalization. Simulated subjects based on these empirical data were used to evaluate model parameters at the subject-level. At the group-level, we tested the accuracy with which the DCM can estimate the latent course patterns using Parametric Empirical Bayes (PEB) and leave-one-out cross-validation.

Results

Analyses of empirical data showed that DCM accurately captured symptom trajectories for all nine subjects. Simulation results showed that parameters could be estimated accurately (correlations between generative and estimated parameters >= 0.76). Moreover, the model could distinguish different latent course patterns, with PEB correctly assigning simulated patients for eight of nine course patterns. When testing any pair of two specific course patterns using leave-one-out cross-validation, 30 out of 36 pairs showed a moderate or high out-of-samples correlation between the true group-membership and the estimated group-membership values.

Conclusion

DCM has been widely used in neuroscience to infer latent neuronal processes from neuroimaging data. Our findings highlight the potential of adopting this methodology for modeling symptom trajectories to explicate nosologic entities, temporal patterns that define them, and facilitate personalized treatment.