Generalizability of treatment outcome prediction in major depressive disorder using structural MRI: A NeuroPharm study

Predicting Antidepressant Treatment Response From Cortical Structure on MRI: A Mega-Analysis From the ENIGMA-MDD Working Group

Accurately predicting individual antidepressant treatment response could expedite the lengthy trial-and-error process of finding an effective treatment for major depressive disorder (MDD). We tested and compared machine learning-based methods that predict individual-level pharmacotherapeutic treatment response using cortical morphometry from multisite longitudinal cohorts. We conducted an international analysis of pooled data from six sites of the ENIGMA-MDD consortium (n = 262 MDD patients; age = 36.5 ± 15.3 years; 154 (59%) female; mean response rate = 57%). Treatment response was defined as a ≥ 50% reduction in symptom severity score after 4-12 weeks post-initiation of antidepressant treatment. Structural MRI was acquired before, or < 14 days after, treatment initiation. The cortex was parcellated using FreeSurfer, from which cortical thickness and surface area were measured. We tested several machine learning pipeline configurations, which varied in (i) the way we presented the cortical data (i.e., average values per region of interest, as a vector containing voxel-wise cortical thickness and surface area measures, and as cortical thickness and surface area projections), (ii) whether we included clinical data, and the (iii) machine learning model (i.e., gradient boosting, support vector machine, and neural network classifiers) and (iv) cross-validation methods (i.e., k-fold and leave-one-site-out) we used. First, we tested if the overall predictive performance of the pipelines was better than chance, with a corrected 10-fold cross-validation permutation test. Second, we compared if some machine learning pipeline configurations outperformed others. In an exploratory analysis, we repeated our first analysis in three subpopulations, namely patients (i) from a single site, (ii) with comparable response rates, and (iii) showing the least (first quartile) and the most (fourth quartile) treatment response, which we call the extreme (non-)responders subpopulation. Finally, we explored the effect of including subcortical volumetric data on model performance. Overall, performance predicting antidepressant treatment response was not significantly better than chance (balanced accuracy = 50.5%; p = 0.66) and did not vary with alternative pipeline configurations. Exploratory analyses revealed that performance across models was only significantly better than chance in the extreme (non-)responders subpopulation (balanced accuracy = 63.9%, p = 0.001). Including subcortical data did not alter the observed model performance. Cortical structural MRI alone could not reliably predict individual pharmacotherapeutic treatment response in MDD. None of the used machine learning pipeline configurations outperformed the others. In exploratory analyses, we found that predicting response in the extreme (non-)responders subpopulation was feasible on both cortical data alone and combined with subcortical data, which suggests that specific MDD subpopulations may exhibit response-related patterns in structural data. Future work may use multimodal data to predict treatment response in MDD.

Breakthroughs and challenges for generating brain network-based biomarkers of treatment response in depression

Treatment outcomes widely vary for individuals diagnosed with major depressive disorder, implicating a need for deeper understanding of the biological mechanisms conferring a greater likelihood of response to a particular treatment. Our improved understanding of intrinsic brain networks underlying depression psychopathology via magnetic resonance imaging and other neuroimaging modalities has helped reveal novel and potentially clinically meaningful biological markers of response. And while we have made considerable progress in identifying such biomarkers over the last decade, particularly with larger, multisite trials, there are significant methodological and practical obstacles that need to be overcome to translate these markers into the clinic. The aim of this review is to review current literature on brain network structural and functional biomarkers of treatment response or selection in depression, with a specific focus on recent large, multisite trials reporting predictive accuracy of candidate biomarkers. Regarding pharmaco- and psychotherapy, we discuss candidate biomarkers, reporting that while we have identified candidate biomarkers of response to a single intervention, we need more trials that distinguish biomarkers between first-line treatments. Further, we discuss the ways prognostic neuroimaging may help to improve treatment outcomes to neuromodulation-based therapies, such as transcranial magnetic stimulation and deep brain stimulation. Lastly, we highlight obstacles and technical developments that may help to address the knowledge gaps in this area of research. Ultimately, integrating neuroimaging-derived biomarkers into clinical practice holds promise for enhancing treatment outcomes and advancing precision psychiatry strategies for depression management. By elucidating the neural predictors of treatment response and selection, we can move towards more individualized and effective depression interventions, ultimately improving patient outcomes and quality of life.

The power of many brains: Catalyzing neuropsychiatric discovery through open neuroimaging data and large-scale collaboration

Recent advances in open neuroimaging data are enhancing our comprehension of neuropsychiatric disorders. By pooling images from various cohorts, statistical power has increased, enabling the detection of subtle abnormalities and robust associations, and fostering new research methods. Global collaborations in imaging have furthered our knowledge of the neurobiological foundations of brain disorders and aided in imaging-based prediction for more targeted treatment. Large-scale magnetic resonance imaging initiatives are driving innovation in analytics and supporting generalizable psychiatric studies. We also emphasize the significant role of big data in understanding neural mechanisms and in the early identification and precise treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders. However, challenges such as data harmonization across different sites, privacy protection, and effective data sharing must be addressed. With proper governance and open science practices, we conclude with a projection of how large-scale imaging resources and collaborations could revolutionize diagnosis, treatment selection, and outcome prediction, contributing to optimal brain health.

Neuroanatomical dimensions in medication-free individuals with major depressive disorder and treatment response to SSRI antidepressant medications or placebo

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a heterogeneous clinical syndrome with widespread subtle neuroanatomical correlates. Our objective was to identify the neuroanatomical dimensions that characterize MDD and predict treatment response to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) antidepressants or placebo. In the COORDINATE-MDD consortium, raw MRI data were shared from international samples (N = 1,384) of medication-free individuals with first-episode and recurrent MDD (N = 685) in a current depressive episode of at least moderate severity, but not treatment-resistant depression, as well as healthy controls (N = 699). Prospective longitudinal data on treatment response were available for a subset of MDD individuals (N = 359). Treatments were either SSRI antidepressant medication (escitalopram, citalopram, sertraline) or placebo. Multi-center MRI data were harmonized, and HYDRA, a semi-supervised machine-learning clustering algorithm, was utilized to identify patterns in regional brain volumes that are associated with disease. MDD was optimally characterized by two neuroanatomical dimensions that exhibited distinct treatment responses to placebo and SSRI antidepressant medications. Dimension 1 was characterized by preserved gray and white matter (N = 290 MDD), whereas Dimension 2 was characterized by widespread subtle reductions in gray and white matter (N = 395 MDD) relative to healthy controls. Although there were no significant differences in age of onset, years of illness, number of episodes, or duration of current episode between dimensions, there was a significant interaction effect between dimensions and treatment response. Dimension 1 showed a significant improvement in depressive symptoms following treatment with SSRI medication (51.1%) but limited changes following placebo (28.6%). By contrast, Dimension 2 showed comparable improvements to either SSRI (46.9%) or placebo (42.2%) (β = -18.3, 95% CI (-34.3 to -2.3), P = 0.03). Findings from this case-control study indicate that neuroimaging-based markers can help identify the disease-based dimensions that constitute MDD and predict treatment response.

A common symptom geometry of mood improvement under sertraline and placebo associated with distinct neural patterns

Importance

Understanding the mechanisms of major depressive disorder (MDD) improvement is a key challenge to determine effective personalized treatments.

Objective

To perform a secondary analysis quantifying neural-to-symptom relationships in MDD as a function of antidepressant treatment.

Design

Double blind randomized controlled trial.

Setting

Multicenter.

Participants

Patients with early onset recurrent depression from the public Establishing Moderators and Biosignatures of Antidepressant Response in Clinical Care (EMBARC) study.

Interventions

Either sertraline or placebo during 8 weeks (stage 1), and according to response a second line of treatment for 8 additional weeks (stage 2).

Main Outcomes and Measures

To identify a data-driven pattern of symptom variations during these two stages, we performed a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on the variations of individual items of four clinical scales measuring depression, anxiety, suicidal ideas and manic-like symptoms, resulting in a univariate measure of clinical improvement. We then investigated how initial clinical and neural factors predicted this measure during stage 1. To do so, we extracted resting-state global brain connectivity (GBC) at baseline at the individual level using a whole-brain functional network parcellation. In turn, we computed a linear model for each brain parcel with individual data-driven clinical improvement scores during stage 1 for each group.

Results

192 patients (127 women), age 37.7 years old (standard deviation: 13.5), were included. The first PC (PC1) capturing 20% of clinical variation was similar across treatment groups at stage 1 and stage 2, suggesting a reproducible pattern of symptom improvement. PC1 patients' scores significantly differed according to treatment during stage 1, whereas no difference of response was evidenced between groups with the Clinical Global Impressions (CGI). Baseline GBC correlated to stage 1 PC1 scores in the sertraline, but not in the placebo group.

Conclusions and Relevance

Using data-driven reduction of symptoms scales, we identified a common profile of symptom improvement across placebo and sertraline. However, the neural patterns of baseline that mapped onto symptom improvement distinguished between treatment and placebo. Our results underscore that mapping from data-driven symptom improvement onto neural circuits is vital to detect treatment-responsive neural profiles that may aid in optimal patient selection for future trials.

Stress Hormone Dynamics Are Coupled to Brain Serotonin 4 Receptor Availability in Unmedicated Patients With Major Depressive Disorder: A NeuroPharm Study

BACKGROUND

A prominent finding in major depressive disorder (MDD) is distorted stress hormone dynamics, which is regulated by serotonergic brain signaling. An interesting feature of the cerebral serotonin system is the serotonin 4 receptor (5-HT4R), which is lower in depressed relative to healthy individuals and also has been highlighted as a promising novel antidepressant target. Here, we test the novel hypothesis that brain 5-HT4R availability in untreated patients with MDD is correlated with cortisol dynamics, indexed by the cortisol awakening response (CAR). Further, we evaluate if CAR changes with antidepressant treatment, including a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor, and if pretreatment CAR can predict treatment outcome.

METHODS

Sixty-six patients (76% women) with a moderate to severe depressive episode underwent positron emission tomography imaging with [11C]SB207145 for quantification of brain 5-HT4R binding using BPND as outcome. Serial home sampling of saliva in the first hour from awakening was performed to assess CAR before and after 8 weeks of antidepressant treatment. Treatment outcome was measured by change in Hamilton Depression Rating Scale 6 items.

RESULTS

In the unmedicated depressed state, prefrontal and anterior cingulate cortices 5-HT4R binding was positively associated with CAR. CAR remained unaltered after 8 weeks of antidepressant treatment, and pretreatment CAR did not significantly predict treatment outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight a link between serotonergic disturbances in MDD and cortisol dynamics, which likely is involved in disease and treatment mechanisms. Further, our data support 5-HT4R agonism as a promising precision target in patients with MDD and disturbed stress hormone dynamics.

Deep phenotyping towards precision psychiatry of first-episode depression - the Brain Drugs-Depression cohort

BACKGROUND

Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is a heterogenous brain disorder, with potentially multiple psychosocial and biological disease mechanisms. This is also a plausible explanation for why patients do not respond equally well to treatment with first- or second-line antidepressants, i.e., one-third to one-half of patients do not remit in response to first- or second-line treatment. To map MDD heterogeneity and markers of treatment response to enable a precision medicine approach, we will acquire several possible predictive markers across several domains, e.g., psychosocial, biochemical, and neuroimaging.

METHODS

All patients are examined before receiving a standardised treatment package for adults aged 18-65 with first-episode depression in six public outpatient clinics in the Capital Region of Denmark. From this population, we will recruit a cohort of 800 patients for whom we will acquire clinical, cognitive, psychometric, and biological data. A subgroup (subcohort I, n = 600) will additionally provide neuroimaging data, i.e., Magnetic Resonance Imaging, and Electroencephalogram, and a subgroup of patients from subcohort I unmedicated at inclusion (subcohort II, n = 60) will also undergo a brain Positron Emission Tomography with the [¹¹C]-UCB-J tracer binding to the presynaptic glycoprotein-SV2A. Subcohort allocation is based on eligibility and willingness to participate. The treatment package typically lasts six months. Depression severity is assessed with the Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology (QIDS) at baseline, and 6, 12 and 18 months after treatment initiation. The primary outcome is remission (QIDS ≤ 5) and clinical improvement (≥ 50% reduction in QIDS) after 6 months. Secondary endpoints include remission at 12 and 18 months and %-change in QIDS, 10-item Symptom Checklist, 5-item WHO Well-Being Index, and modified Disability Scale from baseline through follow-up. We also assess psychotherapy and medication side-effects. We will use machine learning to determine a combination of characteristics that best predict treatment outcomes and statistical models to investigate the association between individual measures and clinical outcomes. We will assess associations between patient characteristics, treatment choices, and clinical outcomes using path analysis, enabling us to estimate the effect of treatment choices and timing on the clinical outcome.

DISCUSSION

The BrainDrugs-Depression study is a real-world deep-phenotyping clinical cohort study of first-episode MDD patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered at clinicaltrials.gov November 15th, 2022 (NCT05616559).