Unravelling the origin of SARS-CoV-2: is the model good?

An updated review of the scientific literature on the origin of SARS-CoV-2

More than two and a half years have already passed since the first case of COVID-19 was officially reported (December 2019), as well as more than two years since the WHO declared the current pandemic (March 2020). During these months, the advances on the knowledge of the COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus responsible of the infection, have been very significant. However, there are still some weak points on that knowledge, being the origin of SARS-CoV-2 one of the most notorious. One year ago, I published a review focused on what we knew and what we need to know about the origin of that coronavirus, a key point for the prevention of potential future pandemics of a similar nature. The analysis of the available publications until July 2021 did not allow drawing definitive conclusions on the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Given the great importance of that issue, the present review was aimed at updating the scientific information on that origin. Unfortunately, there have not been significant advances on that topic, remaining basically the same two hypotheses on it. One of them is the zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV-2, while the second one is the possible leak of this coronavirus from a laboratory. Most recent papers do not include observational or experimental studies, being discussions and positions on these two main hypotheses. Based on the information here reviewed, there is not yet a definitive and well demonstrated conclusion on the origin of SARS-CoV-2.

SARS-CoV-2 origins: zoonotic Rhinolophus vs contemporary models

The question of the origin of coronavirus spread like wildfire ever since it wreaked havoc among humankind, and ever since the scientific community has worked tirelessly to trace the history of the virus. In this review, we have tried to compile relevant literature pertaining to the different theories of origin of SARS-CoV-2, hopefully without any bias, and we strongly support the zoonotic origin of the infamous SARS-CoV-2 in bats and its transfer to human beings through the most probable evolutionary hosts, pangolins and minks. We also support the contemporary 'Circulation Model' that simply mirrors the concept of evolution to explain the origin of the virus which, the authors believe, is the most rational school of thought. The most recent variant of SARS-CoV-2, Omicron, has been taken as an example to clarify the concept. We recommend the community to refer to this model for further understanding and delving deep into this mystery of the origin of SARS-CoV-2.

Le virus SARS-CoV-2 n’a pas « d’origine »

Depuis le début de la pandémie de COVID-19, la question de l’origine de ce virus fait l’objet d’une vive polémique. C’est la question de « l’origine » qui est biaisée. Darwin a montré qu’il n’y a pas d’origine déterminée à aucune espèce animale ou végétale, simplement un processus évolutif et sélectif. Il en est de même pour les virus, il n’y a pas d’origine, mais un processus évolutif. Les virus circulent d’hôte à hôte, animaux ou humains. Les virus pandémiques circulent déjà chez l’homme et évoluent avant l’apparition d’une maladie. Ce processus évolutif se poursuit et donne naissance à des variants successifs. La solution n’est pas de cibler la maladie ou le possible agent causal, mais plutôt de cibler le processus d’émergence de la maladie lui-même.

There is no "origin" to SARS-CoV-2

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused by SARS-CoV-2, the question of the origin of this virus has been a highly debated issue. Debates have been, and are still, very disputed and often violent between the two main hypotheses: a natural origin through the "spillover" model or a laboratory-leak origin. Tenants of these two options are building arguments often based on the discrepancies of the other theory. The main problem is that it is the initial question of the origin itself which is biased. Charles Darwin demonstrated in 1859 that all species are appearing through a process of evolution, adaptation and selection. There is no determined origin to any animal or plant species, simply an evolutionary and selective process in which chance and environment play a key role. The very same is true for viruses. There is no determined origin to viruses, simply also an evolutionary and selective process in which chance and environment play a key role. However, in the case of viruses the process is slightly more complex because the "environment" is another living organism. Pandemic viruses already circulate in humans prior to the emergence of a disease. They are simply not capable of triggering an epidemic yet. They must evolve in-host, i.e. in-humans, for that. The evolutionary process which gave rise to SARS-CoV-2 is still ongoing with regular emergence of novel variants more adapted than the previous ones. The real relevant question is how these viruses can emerge as pandemic viruses and what the society can do to prevent the future emergence of pandemic viruses.