The Incidence of Neovascularization in the Fellow Eye of Patients with Unilateral Choroidal Lesion: A Survival Analysis

Incidence and risk factors of fellow-eyes wet conversion in unilateral neovascular age-related macular degeneration over 15-year follow-up

PURPOSE

Incidence and risk factors of fellow eye wet conversion in unilateral neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) over 15-years follow-up.

METHODS

This retrospective study reviewed 593 unilateral nAMD patients with a minimum of five years up to 15 years of follow-up. The demographic data, visual acuity, fellow eye nAMD conversion rate, and the number of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) injections in the primary eye were evaluated. Also, the nAMD-converted fellow eyes were divided into two groups based on the time of conversion (less and more than two years from the first injection in the primary eye). Based on the data types, the T-test, Chi-square, and Mann-Whitney U test were used to analyze.

RESULTS

The total cases were 593 patients, and 248 eyes (41.82%) converted to nAMD in the mean interval of 34.92 ± 30.62 months. The males exhibited a predisposition to wet conversion at 2.54 years earlier than their female counterparts (P = 0.025). In all the converted fellow eyes, the mean age was 2.3 years higher at presentation in the group who converted within two years of follow-up in compared to eyes that converted after two years (79.82 ± 8.64 vs 77.51 ± 8.5 years, P = 0.035). Additionally, eyes converting within two years had a mean baseline LogMAR visual acuity of 0.44 ± 0.47, compared to 0.32 ± 0.41 for conversions after two years (P = 0.014).

CONCLUSION

This study reported that males showed a predisposition to fellow eye nAMD conversion at an earlier age. Additionally, there was a trend of faster fellow eye nAMD conversion in individuals with higher age and lower baseline visual acuity.

KEY MESSAGES

What is known • Certain risk factors may make the fellow eye of neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) more likely to progress to wet conversion. • Identifying these risk factors for fellow eye wet conversion can help prevent it, potentially preserving the patient's vision quality for a longer duration. • The studies on the incidence of wet conversion in the fellow eye have yielded controversial results. What is new • During the 15-year follow-up period, nearly half (47.58%) of the fellow eyes that underwent wet conversion did so within the initial two years following the wet conversion of the first eye. • Males showed a predisposition to fellow eye nAMD conversion at an earlier age. • There was a trend of faster fellow eye nAMD conversion in individuals with higher age and lower baseline visual acuity.

Prediction of fellow eye neovascularization in type 3 macular neovascularization (Retinal angiomatous proliferation) using deep learning

PURPOSE

To establish a deep learning artificial intelligence model to predict the risk of long-term fellow eye neovascularization in unilateral type 3 macular neovascularization (MNV).

METHODS

This retrospective study included 217 patients (199 in the training/validation of the AI model and 18 in the testing set) with a diagnosis of unilateral type 3 MNV. The purpose of the AI model was to predict fellow eye neovascularization within 24 months after the initial diagnosis. The data used to train the AI model included a baseline fundus image and horizontal/vertical cross-hair scan optical coherence tomography images in the fellow eye. The neural network of this study for AI-learning was based on the visual geometry group with modification. The precision, recall, accuracy, and the area under the curve values of receiver operating characteristics (AUCROC) were calculated for the AI model. The accuracy of an experienced (examiner 1) and less experienced (examiner 2) human examiner was also evaluated.

RESULTS

The incidence of fellow eye neovascularization over 24 months was 28.6% in the training/validation set and 38.9% in the testing set (P = 0.361). In the AI model, precision was 0.562, recall was 0.714, accuracy was 0.667, and the AUCROC was 0.675. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 0.429, 0.727, and 0.611, respectively, for examiner 1, and 0.143, 0.636, and 0.444, respectively, for examiner 2.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first AI study focusing on the clinical course of type 3 MNV. While our AI model exhibited accuracy comparable to that of human examiners, overall accuracy was not high. This may partly be a result of the relatively small number of patients used for AI training, suggesting the need for future multi-center studies to improve the accuracy of the model.

Characterisation of macular neovascularisation subtypes in age-related macular degeneration to optimise treatment outcomes

The aim of this review is to identify the common characteristics and prognoses of different subtypes of neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD). We also propose recommendations on how to tailor treatments to the subtype of neovessels to optimise patient outcomes. The authors, selected members of the Vision Academy, met to discuss treatment outcomes in nAMD according to macular neovascularisation (MNV) subtypes, using evidence from a literature search conducted on the PubMed database (cut-off date: March 2019). This review article summarises the recommendations of the Vision Academy on how the characterisation of MNV subtypes can optimise treatment outcomes in nAMD. The identification of MNV subtypes has been facilitated by the advent of multimodal imaging. Findings from fluorescein angiography, indocyanine green angiography and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography collectively help refine and standardise the determination of the MNV subtype. To date, three subtypes have been described in the literature and have specific characteristics, as identified by imaging. Type 1 MNV is associated with better long-term outcomes but usually requires more intense anti-vascular endothelial growth factor dosing. Type 2 MNV typically responds quickly to treatment but is more prone to the development of fibrotic scars, which may be associated with poorer outcomes. Type 3 MNV tends to be highly sensitive to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treatment but may be associated with a higher incidence of outer retinal atrophy, compared with other subtypes. Accurately assessing the MNV subtype provides information on prognosis and helps to optimise the management of patients with nAMD.

Insights From Survival Analyses During 12 Years of Anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Therapy for Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Importance

Although multiple imputation models for missing data and the use of mixed-effects models generally provide better outcome estimates than using only observed data or last observation carried forward in clinical trials, such approaches usually cannot be applied to visual outcomes from retrospective analyses of clinical practice settings, also called real-world outcomes.

Objective

To explore the potential usefulness of survival analysis techniques for retrospective clinical practice visual outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study covered a 12-year observation period at a tertiary eye center. Of 10 744 eyes with neovascular age-related macular degeneration receiving anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy between October 28, 2008, and February 1, 2020, 7802 eyes met study criteria (treatment-naive, first-treated eyes starting anti-VEGF therapy). Eyes were excluded from the analysis if they received photodynamic therapy or macular laser, any previous anti-VEGF therapy, treatment with anti-VEGF agents other than ranibizumab or aflibercept, or had an unknown date or visual acuity (VA) value at first injection.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards modeling were used to consider VA reaching an Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) letter score of 70 (Snellen equivalent, 20/40) or better, duration of VA sustained at or better than 70 (20/40), and VA declining to 35 (20/200) or worse.

Results

A total of 7802 patients (mean [SD] age, 78.7 [8.8] years; 4776 women [61.2%]; and 4785 White [61.3%]) were included in the study. The median time to attaining a VA letter score greater than or equal to 70 (20/40) was 2.0 years (95% CI, 1.87-2.32) after the first anti-VEGF injection. Predictive features were baseline VA (hazard ratio [HR], 1.43 per 5 ETDRS letter score or 1 line; 95% CI, 1.40-1.46), baseline age (HR, 0.88 per 5 years; 95% CI, 0.86-0.90), and injection number (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.10-1.15). Of the 4439 of 7802 patients (57%) attaining this outcome, median time sustained at an ETDRS letter score of 70 (20/40) or better was 1.1 years (95% CI, 1.1-1.2).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration beginning anti-VEGF therapy were more likely to experience positive visual outcomes within the first 2.0 years after treatment, typically maintaining this outcome for 1.1 years but then deteriorating to poor vision within 8.7 years. These findings demonstrate the potential usefulness of the proposed analyses. This data set, combined with the statistical approach for retrospective analyses, may provide long-term prognostic information for patients newly diagnosed with this condition.

Cost-Utility Analysis of VEGF Inhibitors for Treating Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration

PURPOSE

To perform 11- and 2-year health care sector (ophthalmic) and societal cost perspective reference case, cost-utility analyses comparing bevacizumab, ranibizumab, and aflibercept monotherapies for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (NVAMD).

DESIGN

Cost-utility analysis.

METHODS

The authors performed 11-year and 2-year ophthalmic and societal cost perspective, cost-utility analyses comparing bevacizumab, ranibizumab, and aflibercept monotherapies for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (NVAMD). We employed patient utilities, bilateral outcomes, 2018 U.S. dollars, vision-related mortality, a Medicare fee schedule, and CATT (Comparison of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Treatments) study and VIEW (VEGF Trap-Eye: Investigation of Efficacy and Safety in Wet AMD) trial. Cochrane data were also used.

SETTING

Center for Value-Based Medicine. Patient/study population: patients with NVAMD.

INTERVENTION

Cost-utility analyses using published data. Data-modeled 10-year vision outcomes were modeled forward to year 11.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENT

These included cost-utility ratios (CURs), costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. $100,00/QALY was considered the US cost-effectiveness upper limit.

RESULTS

Bevacizumab and ranibizumab each conferred an 11-year, 1.339 QALY gain versus observation. Aflibercept conferred a 1.380 QALY gain. Aflibercept conferred greater QALY gain for less cost than ranibizumab but was not cost-effective compared to bevacizumab ($1,151,451/QALY incremental CUR). The average ophthalmic cost perspective CUR for bevacizumab was $11,033/QALY, $79,600/QALY for ranibizumab, and $44,801/QALY for aflibercept. Eleven-year therapies saved a 1.0 year-of-life loss without treatment from the 11.0-year life expectancy. Early treatment was 138%-149% more cost-effective than late treatment. Two-year therapy prevented a 1-month-of-life loss, and revealed bevacizumab, ranibizumab, and aflibercept conferred 0.141, 0.141, and 0.164 QALY gains, respectively, with corresponding average CURs of $40,371/QALY, $335,726/QALY, and $168,006/QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

From an ophthalmic (medical) cost perspective, bevacizumab, ranibizumab, and aflibercept NVAMD monotherapies were all cost-effective over 11 years, with bevacizumab 6.21× more cost-effective than ranibizumab and 3.06× more cost-effective than aflibercept. Two-year modeling revealed bevacizumab was cost-effective, whereas ranibizumab and aflibercept were not. Early treatment was critical for obtaining optimal vision and cost-effectiveness, as is long-term follow-up and adherence to treatment.

Longitudinal changes in fellow eyes of choroidal neovascularization associated with central serous chorioretinopathy: Optical coherence tomography angiography study

PURPOSE

To report longitudinal changes in fellow eyes of chronic central serous chorioretinopathy (CSCR) associated choroidal neovascularization (CNV) using optical coherence tomography angiography (OCTA) and determine factors affecting neovascular conversion.

METHODS

Medical records of patients with chronic CSCR complicated by CNV and a minimum follow up of 6 months were reviewed. OCT and OCTA features were analyzed at baseline and final follow up. Baseline factors were assessed for predictive value against presence of CNV at follow up and conversion to exudative form.

RESULTS

Twenty-six subjects (26 CNV and 26 fellow eyes) were included in the study and followed up for a mean period of 26 ± 17 months. Nine eyes had CNV network in fellow eye at baseline, out of which three (33%) had a conversion to exudative CNV. Among the remaining 17 eyes, one eye developed a new network during a period of 44 months. An increase in the size of network was seen from 0.886 ± 0.945 mm² at baseline to 1.326 ± 1.263 mm² at follow up. Baseline choroidal thickness at sub-fovea was 345.4 ± 74.9 microns in eyes having network at last visit, compared to 440.1 ± 73.7 microns in eyes having no network.(p < 0.001) None of the baseline variables were found to be significantly associated with conversion to exudative form or presence of CNV on follow up in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

A conversion rate to exudative form was seen in 33% of fellow eyes with CNV. Relatively thinner choroid at baseline was associated with exudative conversion during follow up.

Multimodal Photoacoustic Imaging-Guided Regression of Corneal Neovascularization: A Non-Invasive and Safe Strategy

Corneal neovascularization (CNV) is one of the main factors that induce blindness worldwide. However, current medical treatments cannot achieve non-invasive and safe inhibition of CNV. A noninvasive photoacoustic imaging (PAI)-guided method is purposed for the regression of CNV. PAI can monitor the oxygen saturation of cornea blood vessels through the endogenous contrast of hemoglobin and trace administrated drugs by themselves as exogenous contrast agents. An indocyanine green (ICG)-based nanocomposite (R-s-ICG) is prepared for CNV treatment via eye drops and subconjunctival injections. It is demonstrated that R-s-ICG can enrich corneal tissues and pathological blood vessels rapidly with minor residua in normal eyeball tissues. Anti-CNV treatment-driven changes in the blood vessels are assessed by real-time multimodal PAI in vivo, and then a safe laser irradiation strategy through the canthus is developed for phototherapy and gene therapy synergistic treatment. The treatment leads to the efficient inhibition of CNV with faint damages to normal tissues.

Longitudinal Changes in Ganglion Cell-Inner Plexiform Layer of Fellow Eyes in Unilateral Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration

PURPOSE

To determine longitudinal changes in the ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GC-IPL) thickness of the fellow eyes of patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD).

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

METHODS

Patients with unilateral neovascular AMD, unilateral polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy (PCV), and control subjects were included. After the initial visit, GC-IPL thickness was measured twice more with at least a 1-year interval between examinations using spectral domain optical coherence tomography.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven fellow eyes of patients with unilateral choroidal neovascularization (CNV), 33 fellow eyes of patients with unilateral PCV, and 35 eyes of control subjects were enrolled. The GC-IPL thickness of the fellow eyes was 78.41 ± 9.23, 81.20 ± 5.52, and 81.60 ± 3.83 μm in the CNV, PCV, and control groups, respectively, and they showed a significant change over time (P < .001, P = .001, and P = .003, respectively). The reduction rate of GC-IPL thickness was -0.88, -0.41, and -0.31 μm per year in the fellow eyes of the CNV, PCV, and control groups, respectively (CNV > PCV, control, P < .001). In a linear mixed model determination of factors associated with GC-IPL reduction in the fellow eyes of the CNV group, the interaction between baseline GC-IPL thickness and duration showed a significant result (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The fellow eyes of patients with neovascular AMD showed a greater reduction rate of GC-IPL thickness compared with fellow eyes of patients with unilateral PCV and control subjects. In patients with unilateral neovascular AMD, fellow eyes with a thicker GC-IPL at baseline showed a greater reduction in GC-IPL thickness over time.

Neovascularization in Fellow Eye of Unilateral Neovascular Age-related Macular Degeneration According to Different Drusen Types

PURPOSE

To investigate the incidence of fellow eye (FE) neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) in patients with unilateral nAMD according to FE drusen type.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

Between January 2013 and June 2016, 434 consecutive patients with naïve nAMD were enrolled. We selected 280 eligible patients with treatment-naïve, unilateral nAMD for analysis (280/280 = 100% patients were followed up at 2 years; 50/280 = 17.9% patients were followed up at 5 years). The incidence and hazard ratios (HR) of FE nAMD according to age, sex, choroidal thickness, nAMD subtype, and drusen type were analyzed.

RESULTS

The 5-year incidence of FE nAMD was 20.9%. The incidences of the soft plus subretinal drusenoid deposits (SDD), soft drusen only, and SDD only groups were 76.4%, 46.2%, and 25.7%, respectively; they were significantly higher than the no drusen group (vs 3.6%; P < .001, P < .001, P < .001). There was no significant difference between the pachydrusen and no drusen groups (7.1% vs 3.6%; P = .101). The multivariate Cox regression hazard model revealed older age (HR, 1.053; P = .031) and drusen type were significant (P = .001). Compared with the no drusen group, the soft drusen plus SDD, soft drusen only, and SDD groups showed an HR of 18.460 (P = .001), 8.302 (P = .015), and 5.465 (P = .082), respectively. Pachydrusen was not shown to be a significant risk factor compared to the no drusen group (HR, 2.417; P = .281).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of FE nAMD was significantly different with respect to drusen type. Soft drusen plus SDD had the highest risk of neovascular AMD, followed by soft drusen only and SDD only.