Density physics-informed neural networks reveal sources of cell heterogeneity in signal transduction

Overcoming bias in estimating epidemiological parameters with realistic history-dependent disease spread dynamics

Epidemiological parameters such as the reproduction number, latent period, and infectious period provide crucial information about the spread of infectious diseases and directly inform intervention strategies. These parameters have generally been estimated by mathematical models that involve an unrealistic assumption of history-independent dynamics for simplicity. This assumes that the chance of becoming infectious during the latent period or recovering during the infectious period remains constant, whereas in reality, these chances vary over time. Here, we find that conventional approaches with this assumption cause serious bias in epidemiological parameter estimation. To address this bias, we developed a Bayesian inference method by adopting more realistic history-dependent disease dynamics. Our method more accurately and precisely estimates the reproduction number than the conventional approaches solely from confirmed cases data, which are easy to obtain through testing. It also revealed how the infectious period distribution changed throughout the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020 in South Korea. We also provide a user-friendly package, IONISE, that automates this method.

Mathematical Modeling and Inference of Epidermal Growth Factor-Induced Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase Cell Signaling Pathways

The mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway is an important intracellular signaling cascade that plays a key role in various cellular processes. Understanding the regulatory mechanisms of this pathway is essential for developing effective interventions and targeted therapies for related diseases. Recent advances in single-cell proteomic technologies have provided unprecedented opportunities to investigate the heterogeneity and noise within complex, multi-signaling networks across diverse cells and cell types. Mathematical modeling has become a powerful interdisciplinary tool that bridges mathematics and experimental biology, providing valuable insights into these intricate cellular processes. In addition, statistical methods have been developed to infer pathway topologies and estimate unknown parameters within dynamic models. This review presents a comprehensive analysis of how mathematical modeling of the MAPK pathway deepens our understanding of its regulatory mechanisms, enhances the prediction of system behavior, and informs experimental research, with a particular focus on recent advances in modeling and inference using single-cell proteomic data.

Advanced methods for gene network identification and noise decomposition from single-cell data

Central to analyzing noisy gene expression systems is solving the Chemical Master Equation (CME), which characterizes the probability evolution of the reacting species' copy numbers. Solving CMEs for high-dimensional systems suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Here, we propose a computational method for improved scalability through a divide-and-conquer strategy that optimally decomposes the whole system into a leader system and several conditionally independent follower subsystems. The CME is solved by combining Monte Carlo estimation for the leader system with stochastic filtering procedures for the follower subsystems. We demonstrate this method with high-dimensional numerical examples and apply it to identify a yeast transcription system at the single-cell resolution, leveraging mRNA time-course experimental data. The identification results enable an accurate examination of the heterogeneity in rate parameters among isogenic cells. To validate this result, we develop a noise decomposition technique exploiting time-course data but requiring no supplementary components, e.g., dual-reporters.

Noisy Delay Denoises Biochemical Oscillators

Genetic oscillations are generated by delayed transcriptional negative feedback loops, wherein repressor proteins inhibit their own synthesis after a temporal production delay. This delay is distributed because it arises from a sequence of noisy processes, including transcription, translocation, translation, and folding. Because the delay determines repression timing and, therefore, oscillation period, it has been commonly believed that delay noise weakens oscillatory dynamics. Here, we demonstrate that noisy delay can surprisingly denoise genetic oscillators. Specifically, moderate delay noise improves the signal-to-noise ratio and sharpens oscillation peaks, all without impacting period and amplitude. We show that this denoising phenomenon occurs in a variety of well-studied genetic oscillators, and we use queueing theory to uncover the universal mechanisms that produce it.