Novel policing techniques decrease gun-violence and the cost to the healthcare system

Child opportunity index is associated with pediatric firearm injury in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Introduction

Firearm injury is the leading cause of death in children. This study uses geospatial mapping to illustrate the burden of pediatric firearm injury in Philadelphia and assesses the relationship between Child Opportunity Index (COI) and injury, hypothesizing that lower COI zip codes would have higher injury and mortality rates.

Methods

Pediatric firearm injury data for children aged 0-19 years in Philadelphia, from 2015 to February 2023, was visualized by race/ethnicity, fatal versus non-fatal status, and COI for zip code. COI was then dichotomized as "High" or "Low" based on nationally normed scores and used to compare incidence and odds of mortality. Injury incidence rates by COI were calculated using weighted Poisson regression, to adjust for the total number of children in each COI category. Odds of mortality by COI, adjusted for age, sex and race/ethnicity, were calculated using multivariable logistic regression.

Results

Of 2,339 total pediatric firearm injuries, 366 (16%) were fatal. Males (89%), adolescents (95%) and Black children (88%) were predominately affected. Geospatial mapping showed highest burden in North and West Philadelphia, which corresponded with areas of low COI. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of injury in low COI zip codes was 2.5 times greater than high COI (IRR 2.5 [1.93-3.22]; p < 0.01). After adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity, odds of mortality in low COI zip codes was nearly twice that of high COI zip codes (aOR 1.95 [0.77-4.92]), though did not demonstrate statistical significance (p = 0.16).

Conclusion

Child opportunity index is associated with pediatric firearm injury in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.