Participatory methods for the assessment of the ownership status of free-roaming dogs in Bali, Indonesia, for disease control and animal welfare

The Influence of Community Feeders and Commercial Food Outlets on the Spatial Distribution of Free-Roaming Dogs-A Photographic Capture and Recapture Study

Understanding the distribution of dogs in the environment is relevant for establishing human and animal health actions. In the present study, we analyzed the influence of community feeders and commercial food outlets on the spatial distribution of free-roaming dogs in an urban area of a municipality in Southeast Brazil. The dogs were identified via photographic capture and recapture performed over five sampling efforts. The spatial densities of dogs were determined using the Kernel method. Spatial correlations between the distribution of free-roaming dogs and the locations of community feeders and commercial food outlets were analyzed using the K function. During the study, 1207 captures/recaptures were performed encompassing 554 dogs, the majority (62.6%) of which were males. Agglomerations of male and female dogs were observed in the areas where food was present. Positive spatial autocorrelations were detected between the distribution of dogs and food sources. The median distances between dogs and community feeders or commercial food outlets were 1.2 and 1.4 km, respectively, and the difference between these two was statistically significant. The presence of community feeders and food outlets demonstrates the influence of human activity, on the spatial distribution of free-roaming dogs. These results will be useful for developing strategies aimed at the improvement of animal welfare and the prevention of zoonoses.

Owned dog population size and ownership patterns in Costa Rica

Dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) are one of the most common pets around the world but ownership patterns and human-dog interactions have been changing, particularly in developing nations. We conducted household surveys in Costa Rica to characterize dog ownership, the owned dog population, where dogs were confined at night and in the morning, and behaviors regarding selected dog care issues. We also compared these results to similar questionnaires used in Costa Rica over the past 20 years. We found 76% of households in Costa Rica owned at least one dog and on average there were about 1.4 dogs owned per household. These dog ownership rates are higher than previous estimates. The probability of owning a dog was highest on farms and lowest in single family dwellings without a yard, higher among respondents that owned their homes and decreasing with increasing human population density The total number of owned dogs in Costa Rica was estimated to be 2,222,032 (95% confidence intervals: 1,981,497-2,503,751). The sterilization rate for homed dogs in 2020 was approximately 62% (females: 67%, males: 61%) which is higher than the 18% of owned dogs that were sterilized in a 2003 survey. Overall, only 1.2% (95% CI: 0.3-2.5%) of owned dogs slept on the street with a slightly higher proportion on the street at 8 am. The number of owned dogs roaming the streets at night nation-wide was estimated to be 27,208 (95% CI: 7,557-56,619) compared to 43,142 (95% CI: 20,118-73,618) on the street at 8 am. The number of unowned free-roaming dogs in Costa Rica has never been estimated but we can generate some idea of the size of the unowned dog population by determining the proportion of free-roaming dogs on the street wearing collars. There was a negative relationship between human population density and owned dogs being on the street meaning fewer dogs roam the streets in highly populated areas compared to less populated areas. Overall, we identify trends against which future progress can be measured and provide information that are critical in designing effective humane dog management programs in Costa Rica in the future.

“What can we do to actually reach all these animals?” Evaluating approaches to improving working equid welfare

NGOs utilise a range of programming to bring about desired changes. This study examines the advantages and limitations of the range of approaches used by one particular NGO sector: working equid welfare organisations, from the perspective of NGO staff. NGO staff hold a wealth of knowledge regarding the design and implementation of welfare improvement initiatives; however this knowledge is rarely systematically documented. Through 32 semi-structured interviews the experiences of staff across multiple organisations were explored. The nine most commonly utilised approaches within equid focussed NGO programming were discussed with participants. Many themes resulting from the interviews centred around the strengths and disadvantages of these individual approaches, implemented both historically and presently by different NGOs. The influences of the context in which initiatives took place and barriers to welfare improvement that existed across approaches were also examined. Striking a balance came through as a strong theme at many levels. Balancing top-down versus bottom-up approaches was a frequently voiced concern, as was balancing the utility of certain approaches against associated factors warranting caution. Combinations of approaches that were felt to be complementary provided a balance that drew on the strengths and mitigated for the weaknesses of different approaches. The need to tailor approaches to individual contexts was also raised and is especially relevant to INGOs working across multiple countries, cultures and political structures. The study provides an informed insight into potential factors to consider when designing future welfare initiatives. The collaborative pooling of experience across different NGOs could help make welfare initiatives more effective and provide a framework for NGOs in other fields to learn from each other’s collective knowledge.

11 years of regular access to subsidized veterinary services is associated with improved dog health and welfare in remote northern communities

Access to veterinary services can have positive impacts on animal health and welfare, and on human mental and physical health and well-being; however, many communities worldwide lack access to such services. At their request, the 5 communities of the Sahtu Settlement Area, Northwest Territories, Canada, have received annual access to preventive veterinary services through the University of Calgary's Northern Community Health Rotation since 2008. To determine the reach of the program, we conducted a dog census in 2017. We then conducted a chart review of 11 years of dog medical records from 2008 to 2018 to evaluate how the reach of the program, the uptake of veterinary services, and dog population demographics, health and welfare measures changed over the duration of the program. In the chart review, we used either multi-level logistic regression or generalized linear models, to determine how seven variables, including age, sex, breed, body condition, deworming, vaccination, and sterilization status upon clinic entry, changed over the course of program delivery. Our results suggest that program reach, veterinary service uptake, and dog demographic, health and welfare measures improved over time. We observed high rabies vaccination coverage in some communities (48 %-83 % of the dog population) and moderate overall sterilization status (25 %-56 % of the dog population) with female dog sterilization more common than male (75 % of dogs leaving the 2017 clinics, compared to 43 %). Several dog demographic, health, and welfare measures, including age, body condition, and vaccination, deworming, and sterilization status, were significantly better in later years of the program (all p < 0.001). Differences among communities, both in dog population numbers from the 2017 census (40-89 dogs) and in the uptake of veterinary services in 2017 (48 %-83 % of the dog population), were notable. Vaccination uptake was directly related to clinic attendance, but sterilization was impacted by additional factors, including community members' acceptance of the procedure. Some unintended consequences were noted, however, including the potential effect of sterilization on the availability of traditional dog breeds in the communities. Overall, our study findings demonstrate that subsidized veterinary services provided over a regular and extended period of time benefit animal population demographics, health and welfare, and could have positive impacts on human well-being. The framework of community collaboration and long-term commitment developed through this program serves as a model for achieving common health goals among communities in need and veterinary service providers.

Comparative Study of Free-Roaming Domestic Dog Management and Roaming Behavior Across Four Countries: Chad, Guatemala, Indonesia, and Uganda

Dogs play a major role in public health because of potential transmission of zoonotic diseases, such as rabies. Dog roaming behavior has been studied worldwide, including countries in Asia, Latin America, and Oceania, while studies on dog roaming behavior are lacking in Africa. Many of those studies investigated potential drivers for roaming, which could be used to refine disease control measures. However, it appears that results are often contradictory between countries, which could be caused by differences in study design or the influence of context-specific factors. Comparative studies on dog roaming behavior are needed to better understand domestic dog roaming behavior and address these discrepancies. The aim of this study was to investigate dog demography, management, and roaming behavior across four countries: Chad, Guatemala, Indonesia, and Uganda. We equipped 773 dogs with georeferenced contact sensors (106 in Chad, 303 in Guatemala, 217 in Indonesia, and 149 in Uganda) and interviewed the owners to collect information about the dog [e.g., sex, age, body condition score (BCS)] and its management (e.g., role of the dog, origin of the dog, owner-mediated transportation, confinement, vaccination, and feeding practices). Dog home range was computed using the biased random bridge method, and the core and extended home range sizes were considered. Using an AIC-based approach to select variables, country-specific linear models were developed to identify potential predictors for roaming. We highlighted similarities and differences in term of demography, dog management, and roaming behavior between countries. The median of the core home range size was 0.30 ha (95% range: 0.17-0.92 ha) in Chad, 0.33 ha (0.17-1.1 ha) in Guatemala, 0.30 ha (0.20-0.61 ha) in Indonesia, and 0.25 ha (0.15-0.72 ha) in Uganda. The median of the extended home range size was 7.7 ha (95% range: 1.1-103 ha) in Chad, 5.7 ha (1.5-27.5 ha) in Guatemala, 5.6 ha (1.6-26.5 ha) in Indonesia, and 5.7 ha (1.3-19.1 ha) in Uganda. Factors having a significant impact on the home range size in some of the countries included being male dog (positively), being younger than one year (negatively), being older than 6 years (negatively), having a low or a high BCS (negatively), being a hunting dog (positively), being a shepherd dog (positively), and time when the dog was not supervised or restricted (positively). However, the same outcome could have an impact in a country and no impact in another. We suggest that dog roaming behavior is complex and is closely related to the owner's socioeconomic context and transportation habits and the local environment. Free-roaming domestic dogs are not completely under human control but, contrary to wildlife, they strongly depend upon humans. This particular dog-human bound has to be better understood to explain their behavior and deal with free-roaming domestic dogs related issues.

Comparative Study of Free-Roaming Domestic Dog Management and Roaming Behavior Across Four Countries: Chad, Guatemala, Indonesia, and Uganda

Dogs play a major role in public health because of potential transmission of zoonotic diseases, such as rabies. Dog roaming behavior has been studied worldwide, including countries in Asia, Latin America, and Oceania, while studies on dog roaming behavior are lacking in Africa. Many of those studies investigated potential drivers for roaming, which could be used to refine disease control measures. However, it appears that results are often contradictory between countries, which could be caused by differences in study design or the influence of context-specific factors. Comparative studies on dog roaming behavior are needed to better understand domestic dog roaming behavior and address these discrepancies. The aim of this study was to investigate dog demography, management, and roaming behavior across four countries: Chad, Guatemala, Indonesia, and Uganda. We equipped 773 dogs with georeferenced contact sensors (106 in Chad, 303 in Guatemala, 217 in Indonesia, and 149 in Uganda) and interviewed the owners to collect information about the dog [e.g., sex, age, body condition score (BCS)] and its management (e.g., role of the dog, origin of the dog, owner-mediated transportation, confinement, vaccination, and feeding practices). Dog home range was computed using the biased random bridge method, and the core and extended home range sizes were considered. Using an AIC-based approach to select variables, country-specific linear models were developed to identify potential predictors for roaming. We highlighted similarities and differences in term of demography, dog management, and roaming behavior between countries. The median of the core home range size was 0.30 ha (95% range: 0.17-0.92 ha) in Chad, 0.33 ha (0.17-1.1 ha) in Guatemala, 0.30 ha (0.20-0.61 ha) in Indonesia, and 0.25 ha (0.15-0.72 ha) in Uganda. The median of the extended home range size was 7.7 ha (95% range: 1.1-103 ha) in Chad, 5.7 ha (1.5-27.5 ha) in Guatemala, 5.6 ha (1.6-26.5 ha) in Indonesia, and 5.7 ha (1.3-19.1 ha) in Uganda. Factors having a significant impact on the home range size in some of the countries included being male dog (positively), being younger than one year (negatively), being older than 6 years (negatively), having a low or a high BCS (negatively), being a hunting dog (positively), being a shepherd dog (positively), and time when the dog was not supervised or restricted (positively). However, the same outcome could have an impact in a country and no impact in another. We suggest that dog roaming behavior is complex and is closely related to the owner's socioeconomic context and transportation habits and the local environment. Free-roaming domestic dogs are not completely under human control but, contrary to wildlife, they strongly depend upon humans. This particular dog-human bound has to be better understood to explain their behavior and deal with free-roaming domestic dogs related issues.

Why Let the Dogs Out? Exploring Variables Associated with Dog Confinement and General Characteristics of the Free-ranging Owned-Dog Population in a Peri-urban Area

Free-ranging dogs (FRDs), are a problem in several countries, with impacts on humans, domestic animals, and wildlife, although increasing evidence suggests that most FRDs are owned. Therefore, understanding dog ownership on a fine scale is critical. The main objectives of this study were to explore dog management in rural localities from central Chile focusing on modeling owner-related variables associated with dog confinement and characterize confined and FRDs populations. Interviews (170) were carried out in Paine municipality, reporting a human:dog ratio of 1.5:1, and dogs in most households (85.9%, 146/170). Thirty-seven percent (54/146) of those households did not confine their dog(s) to some degree, and 41% (196/472) of surveyed dogs were FRD. Based on multivariable logistic regression models, non-confinement was decreased by (i) negative opinion of owners toward roaming behavior of their dogs, (ii) negative opinion toward FRDs, among others. Dog confinement increased along with owners' concerns about the impacts of their dogs on others. Owned-FRDs tended to have poorer general care than confined dogs. Our findings represent a contribution to the understanding of the human dimensions behind FRDs and provide critical quantitative elements to consider when planning effective control strategies.

Indigenous community perspectives on dogs in Northern Canada after 10 years of veterinary services indicates improved animal and human welfare

Access to veterinary services in marginalized communities has important implications for people and animals around the world. Subsidized veterinary services are occasionally provided, however, they are seldom evaluated for their value to stakeholders and overall animal health. In 2017, we evaluated a decade-long veterinary program in four remote communities in the Sahtu Settlement Area of the Northwest Territories, Canada to understand if there were changes in dog husbandry and community perceptions of, and experiences with, dogs since an initial assessment at the beginning of the program in 2008. Using questionnaires and a dog census, we found a significant increase over time in dog health indicators, including the proportion of dogs that had received preventive veterinary care and had been sterilized. We documented significant changes in the described purpose of dogs, husbandry practices, experiences with dogs, and attitudes towards dogs and veterinary services. In 2017, respondents commonly described their dog(s) as companions and as part of their family. However, communities differed in the way dogs were housed and fed and in their attitudes towards dogs and dog-related issues. These inter-community differences are noteworthy as they impact service provision, uptake, and evaluation and must be taken into consideration in order to develop effective programs. Regular program evaluations are critical to check in with stakeholders, to ensure the program is meeting community needs, and to optimize effective use of resources.

Can sterilization help to prevent roaming in owned dogs and cats?

In many locations, the highest proportion of roaming dogs and cats, might have owners. The prevention of roaming in owned dogs and cats is a key intervention to reduce the number of unsupervised animals in public spaces. Sterilization is an important population management intervention but it is unclear if, apart from its effects on birth rates and animal behavior, it also affects the roaming status of owned dogs and cats. We formulated a directed acyclic graph to represent a causal hypothesis regarding the effect of sex, age and sterilization on roaming behavior in owned dogs and cats. The causal hypothesis was tested using survey data and Bayesian multilevel logistic regressions. The odds of roaming were lower in sterilized dogs and cats but the credible interval (CI) supported the effect of sterilization only for dogs. The odds of roaming were higher in both male dogs and cats and the CI supported the effect of sex. The CI did not support the effect of age on roaming, irrespective of species. If the observed association between sterilization and roaming was causal, then sterilization may contribute to a reduction in roaming. Studies on other populations and the exploration of other potential determinants of roaming are required to better understand the causal relationship between sterilization and roaming.

Demographic characteristics of free-roaming dogs (FRD) in rural and urban India following a photographic sight-resight survey

An understanding of the core demographic characteristics of the sub-populations of FRD is essential to effectively implement both rabies control interventions through mass vaccination of FRD, and dog population control programmes. This study compares the data obtained following photographic sight-resight surveys in rural (Shirsuphal village in west India) and urban (Municipal Corporation Panchkula in north India) locations . A total of 263 and 1408  FRD were seen at least once through 617 and 3465 sightings in the rural and urban sites, respectively. The rural location had a lower proportion of females (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4-0.7) and a higher proportion of poor and fair conditioned dogs (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.3-2.3) compared to the urban setting. The rural site also had fewer active FRD (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.7) and FRD were less likely to be sighted within 20 m of garbage points (OR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2-0.3) compared to the urban site. The demographic composition of the FRD population was found to vary within the urban location, with the odds of sighting a de-sexed dog being significantly higher in residential areas compared to other areas. The study underlines the importance of knowing the demographic composition of FRD for implementation of effective interventions against rabies. Fewer female dogs in the rural location indicate that spaying could be an effective tool for dog population management in this setting, while presence of dogs within 20 m of garbage points in urban settings highlights that an improved garbage management may reduce the carrying capacity of the urban locality resulting in smaller FRD population. It is concluded that quick and low cost surveys can generate useful demographic data for FRD in urban and rural settings which can be useful to understand the epidemiology of rabies and its control.

Evaluation of Community-Based Dog Welfare and Rabies Project in Sanur, a Sub-district of the Indonesian Island Province of Bali

The Indonesian island province of Bali experienced its first rabies incursion in 2008. Mass vaccination of the dog population has proven effective and rabies cases in dogs and people have decreased, however the virus is still circulating among the dog population. Vaccination coverage must be maintained until rabies elimination. Increasing efficiency and effectiveness of vaccination campaigns is therefore desired. Community engagement leading to preventative health actions by community members can reduce disease incidence and costs of control. Here we evaluate 2 years of a novel community-based dog welfare and rabies control project (Program Dharma) in the Sanur sub-district. The project engaged the services of people living in the project area with an interest or experience in dogs or community health services. These people spoke with owners within their own community about dog welfare and health, monitored owned and unowned dogs and increased owner and carer efforts to access vaccination and further veterinary services. The evaluation focused on a sample of dogs whose owners had been regularly engaged with project. Vaccination coverage was increased and there were no dog or human rabies cases reported in the project area; the percentage of the dogs that had never been vaccinated was reduced by an average 28.3% (baseline unvaccinated 41–49%, post-project unvaccinated 11–19%). The welfare of dogs improved from an average of 20.7% of dogs with visible welfare problems at baseline to 2.7% after project implementation. Roaming dog density observed on street surveys also decreased in all project areas (24–47% reduction dependent on desa). A participatory evaluation event with a sample of Program Dharma community-based agents highlighted several additional successes, including that the community appeared to welcome and value their services and were beginning to support the cost of project activities. Conversely, challenges included identifying dogs in the database during revisits, sustaining the costs of community member time spent working on Program Dharma activities and the costs of veterinary care, whilst avoiding dependency of owners on free veterinary services. The benefits revealed by the evaluation were judged to be sufficient to extend Program Dharma to new areas, whilst evolving activities to resolve challenges.

Demography and welfare status of free-roaming dogs in Yangmingshan National Park, Taiwan

Free-roaming dogs (Canis familiaris) cause threats to native wildlife and public health and raise concerns for their welfare. Understanding the demography of free-roaming dog populations is essential for developing an effective management plan. An evaluation of their welfare status would be beneficial to earn public support for the management plan. In this study, we estimated the population size, survivorship, and health of a free-roaming dog population in Yangmingshan National Park (YMSNP), Taiwan, during 2016-2018. YMSNP is a rural area with human settlements but also a protected area of conservation concern. We identified 191, 176, 216 individuals at our sampling sites in 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively. Using a photographic capture-recapture method and extrapolation, we estimated that there were 786-979 dogs in the park during this 3-year period. The annual apparent survival rate of identified dogs was 16.7% for 2016-2017 and 23.9% for 2017-2018. The dogs had a high rate of lameness and dermatosis of 5.1-8.8% and 14.2-18.1%, respectively. Thirty-five blood samples showed that 34.3% of the dogs were anemic, 37.1% showed abnormal white blood cell counts, and 68.6% exhibited abnormal platelet counts. These results suggested that the dogs were at high density with low survivorship and in poor health, and new individuals entered the population continuously. Interventions to manage this dog population and to improve their welfare must be carried out. Our study provides an example for monitoring and managing a free-roaming dog population in a rural, conservation area in Southeast Asia.

Companion and free-ranging Bali dogs: Environmental links with personality traits in an endemic dog population of South East Asia

Dogs living on Bali Island have been free-ranging for thousands of years. A large group of expatriates sometimes adopt Bali dogs and keep them restricted to their houses and backyards, as is typical in modern western cultures. This provides us with the unique opportunity to compare the personality traits of dogs to their lifestyle either living as human companions or as free-ranging animals, exploring at the same time the impact of demographic variables (such as age, sex, and neutered status) on personality. After controlling for internal consistency of the scales and between-observer variation, we found that free-ranging Bali dogs were rated as less active, less excitable, less aggressive towards animals, and less inclined to chase animals or humans than Bali dogs living as human companions. Among free-ranging dogs, females were found to be more excitable. Females in the whole sample were also more fearful of people. The results of this preliminary study suggest that a change in lifestyle, i.e. being adopted, and living in a confined environment has negative consequences on some canine personality traits, such as activity/excitability, aggression towards animals, and prey drive.

The Role of Dog Population Management in Rabies Elimination-A Review of Current Approaches and Future Opportunities

Free-roaming dogs and rabies transmission are integrally linked across many low-income countries, and large unmanaged dog populations can be daunting to rabies control program planners. Dog population management (DPM) is a multifaceted concept that aims to improve the health and well-being of free-roaming dogs, reduce problems they may cause, and may also aim to reduce dog population size. In theory, DPM can facilitate more effective rabies control. Community engagement focused on promoting responsible dog ownership and better veterinary care could improve the health of individual animals and dog vaccination coverage, thus reducing rabies transmission. Humane DPM tools, such as sterilization, could theoretically reduce dog population turnover and size, allowing rabies vaccination coverage to be maintained more easily. However, it is important to understand local dog populations and community attitudes toward them in order to determine whether and how DPM might contribute to rabies control and which DPM tools would be most successful. In practice, there is very limited evidence of DPM tools achieving reductions in the size or turnover of dog populations in canine rabies-endemic areas. Different DPM tools are frequently used together and combined with rabies vaccinations, but full impact assessments of DPM programs are not usually available, and therefore, evaluation of tools is difficult. Surgical sterilization is the most frequently documented tool and has successfully reduced dog population size and turnover in a few low-income settings. However, DPM programs are mostly conducted in urban settings and are usually not government funded, raising concerns about their applicability in rural settings and sustainability over time. Technical demands, costs, and the time necessary to achieve population-level impacts are major barriers. Given their potential value, we urgently need more evidence of the effectiveness of DPM tools in the context of canine rabies control. Cheaper, less labor-intensive tools for dog sterilization will be extremely valuable in realizing the potential benefits of reduced population turnover and size. No one DPM tool will fit all situations, but if DPM objectives are achieved dog populations may be stabilized or even reduced, facilitating higher dog vaccination coverages that will benefit rabies elimination efforts.

Scoping review of indicators and methods of measurement used to evaluate the impact of dog population management interventions

BACKGROUND

Dogs are ubiquitous in human society and attempts to manage their populations are common to most countries. Managing dog populations is achieved through a range of interventions to suit the dog population dynamics and dog ownership characteristics of the location, with a number of potential impacts or goals in mind. Impact assessment provides the opportunity for interventions to identify areas of inefficiencies for improvement and build evidence of positive change.

METHODS

This scoping review collates 26 studies that have assessed the impacts of dog population management interventions.

RESULTS

It reports the use of 29 indicators of change under 8 categories of impact and describes variation in the methods used to measure these indicators.

CONCLUSION

The relatively few published examples of impact assessment in dog population management suggest this field is in its infancy; however this review highlights those notable exceptions. By describing those indicators and methods of measurement that have been reported thus far, and apparent barriers to efficient assessment, this review aims to support and direct future impact assessment.

Characterization of the epidemiology of bat-borne rabies in Chile between 2003 and 2013

Rabies is a zoonotic disease of great impact to public health. According to the World Health Organization, the country of Chile is currently declared free from human rabies transmitted by dogs. An epidemiological characterization and description was conducted using rabies data from 2003 to 2013 held by the National Program for Prevention and Control of Rabies from the Ministry of Health, consisting of bats samples reported as suspect and samples taken by active surveillance (bats brain tissue). Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed using Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) statistics, particularly Moran's I index, for the detection of spatial clusters. Temporal descriptive analysis was also carried out. Nine hundred and twenty-seven positive cases were reported, presenting an average of 84 cases per year, mainly originated from passive surveillance (98.5%), whilst only 1.5% of cases were reported by active surveillance. Global positivity for the study period was 7.02% and 0.1% in passive and active surveillance respectively. Most of the cases were reported in the central zone of Chile (88.1%), followed by south zone (9.1%) and north zone (2.8%). At a regional level, Metropolitana (40.6%), Valparaíso (19.1%) and Maule (11.8%) regions reported the majority of the cases. Tadarida brasiliensis (92%) presented the majority of the cases reported, with viral variant 4 (82%) being most commonly diagnosed. Only two cases were detected in companion animals. The central zone presented a positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I index=0.1537, 95% CI=0.1141-0.1933; p-value=0.02); north and south zones returned non-significant results (Moran's I index=0.0517 and -0.0117, 95% CI=-0.0358-0.1392 and -0.0780-0.0546, and p-values=0.21 and 0.34 respectively). The number of rabies cases decreased between May and August (late fall and winter) and tended to increase during the hot season (December to March), confirmed with the evidence from Autocorrelation analysis and the Ljun-Box test (X²=234.85 and p-value<0.0001). Knowledge of animal rabies epidemiologic behaviour becomes relevant when designing prevention and control measures and surveillance programs. This is especially important considering the high impact to Public Health of this disease and that wildlife rabies in bats remains endemic in Chile.

Determinants of Vaccination Coverage and Consequences for Rabies Control in Bali, Indonesia

Maintaining high vaccination coverage is key to successful rabies control, but mass dog vaccination can be challenging and population turnover erodes coverage. Declines in rabies incidence following successive island-wide vaccination campaigns in Bali suggest that prospects for controlling and ultimately eliminating rabies are good. Rabies, however, has continued to circulate at low levels. In the push to eliminate rabies from Bali, high coverage needs to be maintained across all areas of the island. We carried out door-to-door (DTD) questionnaire surveys (n = 10,352 dog-owning households) and photographic mark–recapture surveys (536 line transects, 2,597 observations of free-roaming dogs) in 2011–2012 to estimate dog population sizes and assess rabies vaccination coverage and dog demographic characteristics in Bali, Indonesia. The median number of dogs per subvillage unit (banjar) was 43 (range 0–307) for owned dogs estimated from the DTD survey and 17 (range 0–83) for unconfined dogs (including both owned and unowned) from transects. Vaccination coverage of owned dogs was significantly higher in adults (91.4%) compared to juveniles (<1 year, 43.9%), likely due to insufficient targeting of pups and from puppies born subsequent to vaccination campaigns. Juveniles had a 10–70 times greater risk of not being vaccinated in urban, suburban, and rural areas [combined odds ratios (ORs): 9.9–71.1, 95% CI: 8.6–96.0]. Free-roaming owned dogs were also 2–3 times more likely to be not vaccinated compared to those confined (combined Ors: 1.9–3.6, 95% CI: 1.4–5.4), with more dogs being confined in urban (71.2%) than in suburban (16.1%) and rural areas (8.0%). Vaccination coverage estimates from transects were also much lower (30.9%) than household surveys (83.6%), possibly due to loss of collars used to identify the vaccination status of free-roaming dogs, but these unconfined dogs may also include dogs that were unowned or more difficult to vaccinate. Overall, coverage levels were high in the owned dog population, but for future campaigns in Bali to have the highest chance of eliminating rabies, concerted effort should be made to vaccinate free-roaming dogs particularly in suburban and rural areas, with advertising to ensure that owners vaccinate pups. Long-lasting, cheap, and quick methods are needed to mark vaccinated animals and reassure communities of the reach of vaccination campaigns.

Heterogeneity in the spread and control of infectious disease: consequences for the elimination of canine rabies

Understanding the factors influencing vaccination campaign effectiveness is vital in designing efficient disease elimination programmes. We investigated the importance of spatial heterogeneity in vaccination coverage and human-mediated dog movements for the elimination of endemic canine rabies by mass dog vaccination in Region VI of the Philippines (Western Visayas). Household survey data was used to parameterise a spatially-explicit rabies transmission model with realistic dog movement and vaccination coverage scenarios, assuming a basic reproduction number for rabies drawn from the literature. This showed that heterogeneous vaccination reduces elimination prospects relative to homogeneous vaccination at the same overall level. Had the three vaccination campaigns completed in Region VI in 2010–2012 been homogeneous, they would have eliminated rabies with high probability. However, given the observed heterogeneity, three further campaigns may be required to achieve elimination with probability 0.95. We recommend that heterogeneity be reduced in future campaigns through targeted efforts in low coverage areas, even at the expense of reduced coverage in previously high coverage areas. Reported human-mediated dog movements did not reduce elimination probability, so expending limited resources on restricting dog movements is unnecessary in this endemic setting. Enhanced surveillance will be necessary post-elimination, however, given the reintroduction risk from long-distance dog movements.

Dog ownership, abundance and potential for bat-borne rabies spillover in Chile

Rabies is a viral infectious disease that affects all mammals, including humans. Factors associated with the incidence of rabies include the presence and density of susceptible hosts and potential reservoirs. Currently, Chile is declared free of canine-related rabies, but there is an overpopulation of dogs within the country and an emergence of rabies in bats. Our objectives are to determine potential areas for bat-borne rabies spillover into dog populations expressed as a risk map, and to explore some key features of dog ownership, abundance, and management in Chile. For the risk map, our variables included a dog density surface (dog/km(2)) and a distribution model of bat-borne rabies presence. From literature review, we obtained dog data from 112 municipalities, which represent 33% of the total municipalities (339). At country level, based on previous studies the median human per dog ratio was 4.8, with 64% of houses containing at least one dog, and a median of 0.9 dog per house. We estimate a national median of 5.3 dog/km(2), and a median of 3680 dogs by municipality, from which we estimate a total population of 3.5×10(6) owned dogs. The antirabies vaccination presented a median of 21% of dogs by municipality, and 29% are unrestricted to some degree. Human per dog ratio have a significant (but weak) negative association with human density. Unrestricted dogs have a negative association with human density and income, and a positive association with the number of dogs per house. Considering dog density by municipality, and areas of potential bat-borne rabies occurrence, we found that 163 (∼48%) of Chilean municipalities are at risk of rabies spillover from bats to dogs. Risk areas are concentrated in urban settlements, including Santiago, Chile's capital. To validate the risk map, we included cases of rabies in dogs from the last 27 years; all fell within high-risk areas of our map, confirming the assertive risk prediction. Our results suggest that the use of dog population parameters may be informative to determine risk areas for bat-rabies spillover events. In addition, we confirm that dog abundance is a neglected and emerging public health concern in Chile, particularly within urban areas, which deserves prompt intervention.

Achieving population-level immunity to rabies in free-roaming dogs in Africa and Asia

Canine rabies can be effectively controlled by vaccination with readily available, high-quality vaccines. These vaccines should provide protection from challenge in healthy dogs, for the claimed period, for duration of immunity, which is often two or three years. It has been suggested that, in free-roaming dog populations where rabies is endemic, vaccine-induced protection may be compromised by immuno-suppression through malnutrition, infection and other stressors. This may reduce the proportion of dogs that seroconvert to the vaccine during vaccination campaigns and the duration of immunity of those dogs that seroconvert. Vaccination coverage may also be limited through insufficient vaccine delivery during vaccination campaigns and the loss of vaccinated individuals from populations through demographic processes. This is the first longitudinal study to evaluate temporal variations in rabies vaccine-induced serological responses, and factors associated with these variations, at the individual level in previously unvaccinated free-roaming dog populations. Individual-level serological and health-based data were collected from three cohorts of dogs in regions where rabies is endemic, one in South Africa and two in Indonesia. We found that the vast majority of dogs seroconverted to the vaccine; however, there was considerable variation in titres, partly attributable to illness and lactation at the time of vaccination. Furthermore, >70% of the dogs were vaccinated through community engagement and door-to-door vaccine delivery, even in Indonesia where the majority of the dogs needed to be caught by net on successive occasions for repeat blood sampling and vaccination. This demonstrates the feasibility of achieving population-level immunity in free-roaming dog populations in rabies-endemic regions. However, attrition of immune individuals through demographic processes and waning immunity necessitates repeat vaccination of populations within at least two years to ensure communities are protected from rabies. These findings support annual mass vaccination campaigns as the most effective means to control canine rabies.

The demography of free-roaming dog populations and applications to disease and population control

1. Understanding the demography of domestic dog populations is essential for effective disease control, particularly of canine-mediated rabies. Demographic data are also needed to plan effective population management. However, no study has comprehensively evaluated the contribution of demographic processes (i.e. births, deaths and movement) to variations in dog population size or density, or determined the factors that regulate these processes, including human factors. 2. We report the results of a 3-year cohort study of domestic dogs, which is the first to generate detailed data on the temporal variation of these demographic characteristics. The study was undertaken in two communities in each of Bali, Indonesia and Johannesburg, South Africa, in rabies-endemic areas and where the majority of dogs were free-roaming. None of the four communities had been engaged in any dog population management interventions by local authorities or animal welfare organizations. All identified dogs in the four communities were monitored individually throughout the study. 3. We observed either no population growth or a progressive decline in population size during the study period. There was no clear evidence that population size was regulated through environmental resource constraints. Rather, almost all of the identified dogs were owned and fed regularly by their owners, consistent with population size regulated by human demand. Finally, a substantial fraction of the dogs originated from outside the population, entirely through the translocation of dogs by people, rather than from local births. These findings demonstrate that previously reported growth of dog populations is not a general phenomenon and challenge the widely held view that free-roaming dogs are unowned and form closed populations. 4.Synthesis and applications. These observations have broad implications for disease and population control. The accessibility of dogs for vaccination and evaluation through owners and the movement of dogs (some of them infected) by people will determine the viable options for disease control strategies. The impact of human factors on population dynamics will also influence the feasibility of annual vaccination campaigns to control rabies and population control through culling or sterilization. The complex relationship between dogs and people is critically important in the transmission and control of canine-mediated rabies. For effective management, human factors must be considered in the development of disease and population control programmes.