Progression to multi-scale models and the application to food system intervention strategies

Complex System Approaches for Animal Health Surveillance

Many new and highly variable data are currently being produced by the many participants in farmed animal productions systems. These data hold the promise of new information with potential value for animal health surveillance. The current analytical paradigm for dealing with these new data is to implement syndromic surveillance systems, which focus mainly on univariate event detection methods applied to individual time series, with the goal of identifying epidemics in the population. This approach is relatively limited in the scope and not well-suited for extracting much of the additional information that is contained within these data. These approaches have value and should not be abandoned. However, an additional, new analytical paradigm will be needed if surveillance and disease control agencies wish to extract additional information from these data. We propose a more holistic analytical approach borrowed from complex system science that considers animal disease to be a product of the complex interactions between the many individuals, organizations and other factors that are involved in, or influence food production systems. We will discuss the characteristics of farmed animal food production systems that make them complex adaptive systems and propose practical applications of methods borrowed from complex system science to help animal health surveillance practitioners extract additional information from these new data.

Application of dynamic modelling techniques to the problem of antibacterial use and resistance: a scoping review

Selective pressure exerted by the widespread use of antibacterial drugs is accelerating the development of resistant bacterial populations. The purpose of this scoping review was to summarise the range of studies that use dynamic models to analyse the problem of bacterial resistance in relation to antibacterial use in human and animal populations. A comprehensive search of the peer-reviewed literature was performed and non-duplicate articles (n = 1486) were screened in several stages. Charting questions were used to extract information from the articles included in the final subset (n = 81). Most studies (86%) represent the system of interest with an aggregate model; individual-based models are constructed in only seven articles. There are few examples of inter-host models outside of human healthcare (41%) and community settings (38%). Resistance is modelled for a non-specific bacterial organism and/or antibiotic in 40% and 74% of the included articles, respectively. Interventions with implications for antibacterial use were investigated in 67 articles and included changes to total antibiotic consumption, strategies for drug management and shifts in category/class use. The quality of documentation related to model assumptions and uncertainty varies considerably across this subset of articles. There is substantial room to improve the transparency of reporting in the antibacterial resistance modelling literature as is recommended by best practice guidelines.

Addressing Antimicrobial Resistance: An Overview of Priority Actions to Prevent Suboptimal Antimicrobial Use in Food-Animal Production

The growing concern regarding emergence of bacteria resistant to antimicrobials and their potential for transmission to humans via animal production has led various authorities worldwide to implement measures to decrease antimicrobial use (AMU) in livestock production. These measures are influenced by those implemented in human medicine, and emphasize the importance of antimicrobial stewardship, surveillance, infection prevention and control and research. In food producing animals, unlike human medicine, antimicrobials are used to control diseases which cause economic losses. This major difference may explain the failure of the public policies implemented to control antimicrobial usage. Here we first review the specific factors influencing AMU across the farm animal sector and highlighting the farmers' decision-making process of AMU. We then discuss the efficiency of existing regulations implemented by policy makers, and assess the need for alternative strategies, such as substitution between antimicrobials and other measures for infectious disease control. We also discuss the interests of regulating antimicrobial prices. Finally, we emphasize the value of optimizing antimicrobial regimens, and developing veterinary precision medicine to achieve clinical efficacy in animals while limiting negative impacts on public health. The fight against antimicrobial resistance requires both a reduction and an optimization of antimicrobial consumption. The set of actions currently implemented by policy makers does not adequately address the economic interests of farmers' use of antimicrobials.