Re:Can the summer temperature reduce COVID-19 cases?

Impact of outdoor and indoor meteorological conditions on the COVID-19 transmission in the western region of Saudi Arabia

Meteorological conditions may influence the incidence of many infectious diseases. Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is a highly contagious, air-borne, emerging, viral disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). In 2020, the COVID-19 global pandemic affected more than 210 countries and territories worldwide including Saudi Arabia. There are contradictory research papers about the correlation between meteorological parameters and incidence of COVID-19 in some countries worldwide. The current study investigates the impact of outdoor and indoor meteorological conditions on the daily recorded COVID-19 cases in western region (Makkah and Madinah cities) of Saudi Arabia over a period of 8 months from March to October 2020. Reports of the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from the webpage of Saudi Ministry of Health (MOH) were used. Considering, the incubation period of COVID-19 which ranged from 2 to 14 days, the relationships between daily COVID-19 cases and outdoor meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed) using a lag time of 10 days are investigated. The results showed that the highest daily COVID-19 cases in Makkah and Madinah were reported during the hottest months of the year (April-July 2020) when outdoor temperature ranged from 26.51 to 40.71 °C in Makkah and of 23.89-41.20 °C in Madinah, respectively. Partial negative correlation was detected between outdoor relative humidity and daily recorded COVID-19 cases. No obvious correlation could be demonstrated between wind speed and daily COVID-19 cases. This indicated that most of SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred in the cool, air-conditioned, dry, and bad-ventilated indoor environment in the investigated cities. These results will help the epidemiologists to understand the correlation between both outdoor and indoor meteorological conditions and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. These findings would be also a useful supplement to assist the local healthcare policymakers to implement and apply a specific preventive measures and education programs for controlling of COVID-19 transmission.

Does death from Covid-19 arise from a multi-step process?

The Covid-19 death rate increases exponentially with age, and the main risk factors are having underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, severe chronic respiratory disease and cancer. These characteristics are consistent with the multi-step model of disease. We applied this model to Covid-19 case fatality rates (CFRs) from China, South Korea, Italy, Spain and Japan. In all countries we found that a plot of log(CFR) against log(age) was approximately linear with a slope of about 5. We also conducted similar analyses for selected other respiratory diseases. SARS showed a similar log–log age-pattern to that of Covid-19, albeit with a lower slope, whereas seasonal and pandemic influenza showed quite different age-patterns. Thus, death from Covid-19 and SARS appears to follow a distinct age-pattern, consistent with a multi-step model of disease that in the case of Covid-19 is probably defined by comorbidities and age producing immune-related susceptibility.