COVID-19 and mass gatherings: emerging and future implications of the Brazilian carnival for public health

Structural Modeling on the Determinants of Effectiveness of SOPs Containing COVID-19 in Mass Gatherings

The study is aimed to analyze the determinants of the effectiveness of SOPs in mass gatherings for containing COVID-19. The overall design of the study involves a literature review, data collection by field survey, structural modeling, and analysis. The study is built on the experts' opinion of a focus group (representing people who recently participated in and are responsible for mass gatherings). The study uses the discussion of the literature review to identify the determinants, interpretive structural modeling (ISM) for developing and analyzing a structural model, and Matrice d'Impacts Croises Multiplication Appliquée a un Classement (MICMAC) for corroboration of results of the ISM/classification of determinants. From the literature review, a list of determinants is generated and verified by a panel of experts. The results of the ISM revealed that the determinants “legal environment of the country,” “practicability of SOPs,” “perceived benefit of adapting SOPs,” and “possibilities of avoiding gathering” occupied the top of the model, therefore, they are less critical determinants, whereas “nature of gathering” occupied the bottom of the model, and is thus the most critical determinant. The remaining determinants form the middle of the model, and are therefore moderately severe. The results of MICMAC show that the determinant “perceived benefit of adapting SOPs” is dependent, “nature of gathering” is independent, and all others are linked. The results of MICMAC implicitly substantiate the findings of the ISM. The overall results of the study show that “nature of gathering” is the key determinant. This research does not require a priori theory since it is a theory-building study that uses an inductive approach. It is based on real data and it is useful for local authorities, organizers, participants (attendees/visitors) of mass gatherings, health officials/regulators, researchers, and the community at large. This study has fundamental importance for planning and preparing for such events while ensuring the minimum risk of COVID-19 transmission.

A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis of COVID-19 in Latin America

BACKGROUND

Latin America has become the epicenter of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aim to perform a systematic comparative review of the clinical characteristics that are associated with this disease in Latin American countries.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of published articles, journal and/or epidemiological reports of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Latin America. Data were obtained either through publicly available information from Ministries of Health, published journal reports and/or unpublished datasets. We analyzed data from SARS-CoV-2 positive patients evaluated at healthcare centers and hospitals of 8 countries including Brazil, Peru, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia, between March 1^st and July 30^th, 2020. These countries consist of a total population that exceeds 519 million. Demographics, comorbidities, and clinical symptoms were collected. Statistical descriptive analysis and correlation analyses of symptoms, comorbidities and mortality were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 728,282 COVID-19 patients were included in this study. Of these, 52.6% were female. The average age was 48.4 years. Peru had the oldest cohort with 56.8 years and highest rate of females (56.8%) while Chile had the youngest cohort (39 years old). Venezuela had the highest male prevalence (56.7%). Most common symptoms were cough with 60.1% (Bolivia had the highest rate 78%), fatigue/tiredness with 52.0%, sore throat with 50.3%, and fever with 44.2%. Bolivian patients had fever as the top symptom (83.3%). GI symptoms included diarrhea which was highest in Mexico with 22.9%. Hypertension was among the top (12.1%) comorbidities, followed by diabetes with 8.3% and obesity at 4.5%. In multivariate analyses, the leading and significant comorbidities were hypertension (r = 0.83, p = 0.02), diabetes (r = 0.91, p = 0.01), and obesity (r = 0.86, p = 0.03). Mortality was highest in Mexico (16.6%) and lowest in Venezuela (0.9%) among the analyzed cohorts.

CONCLUSION

Overall, COVID-19 patients in Latin America display cough, fatigue, and fever as main symptoms. Up to 53% of patients with COVID-19 have GI manifestations. Different clinical symptoms were associated with COVID-19 in Latin American countries. Metabolic syndrome components were the main comorbidities associated with poor outcome. Country-specific management and prevention plans are needed and can be established from this meta-analysis.